Ward 8 — Eglinton–Lawrence

Eglinton–Lawrence is a midtown ward of pronounced contrasts, stretching from Bathurst Street east to Yonge Street and from Eglinton Avenue north to Lawrence Avenue. The ward encompasses some of Toronto's most affluent residential enclaves — Lawrence Park, Forest Hill North, and the Briar Hill-Belgravia area — alongside the working-class Fairbank and Oakwood-Vaughan neighbourhoods in the southwest. With a population of roughly 109,000, the ward has a significant Jewish community (approximately 22 percent of residents), one of the highest concentrations in the city, centred around the Bathurst corridor. The Lawrence Park area features large detached homes on winding, tree-canopied streets, with property values among the highest in Toronto.

Eglinton–Lawrence delivered Bailão's strongest result in the city: 46.8 percent (16,121 votes) to Chow's 23.8 percent (8,183), a margin of nearly 8,000 votes. Saunders took third with 8.5 percent, followed by Matlow at 7.7 percent — a meaningful showing for Matlow, given that his own ward of Toronto–St. Paul's borders Eglinton–Lawrence and his anti-overdevelopment message resonated with residents who shared those concerns. Furey earned 5.3 percent. The ward's 34,449 ballots reflected robust engagement from an affluent, politically attentive electorate. Councillor Mike Colle, a former Ontario Liberal MPP first elected in 1995 who had represented the provincial riding and its predecessor from 1995 to 2018 before returning to municipal politics, brought decades of political experience to the ward.

Municipal Issues

The Eglinton Crosstown LRT dominated the ward's transportation concerns. The entire southern boundary of the ward runs along Eglinton Avenue, where construction of the underground LRT had dragged on for over a decade. Businesses along the Eglinton commercial strip had been devastated by the construction — some closing permanently — and the project's repeated delays and ballooning costs eroded confidence in transit planning. For Lawrence Park and Forest Hill residents, the Crosstown was also a development trigger: provincial policies encouraging intensification around future transit stations had spawned high-rise proposals that alarmed established residential neighbourhoods.

The economic and social divide between the ward's northern and southern halves shaped the political landscape. Lawrence Park residents, who tend toward fiscal conservatism and good-government pragmatism, found Bailão's blend of housing expertise and John Tory's endorsement appealing. The Fairbank and Oakwood-Vaughan neighbourhoods in the southwest — more diverse, lower-income, and renter-heavy — were natural Chow territory, but their smaller populations and lower turnout rates could not offset the Lawrence Park vote. The result underscored a pattern visible across the city: affluent, high-turnout neighbourhoods wielded disproportionate influence in a by-election with no concurrent council races to drive turnout in lower-income areas.