Ward 7 — Humber River–Black Creek

Humber River–Black Creek covers a large swath of northwest Toronto, from the Humber River east to the Black Creek ravine and from Steeles Avenue south to Eglinton Avenue. The ward encompasses the Jane and Finch neighbourhood — a community with deep civic roots and a strong network of grassroots organizations — along with Downsview, Weston Road North, and Amesbury. With a population of roughly 105,000, it is one of Toronto's lowest-income wards: median household incomes are well below the city average, and social housing developments including San Romanoway and Firgrove-Grassways are home to thousands of residents. The ward is home to established Black, South Asian, Latin American, and Caribbean communities that have built vibrant cultural institutions and neighbourhood networks. Historically, voter turnout here is among the lowest in Toronto.

Humber River–Black Creek produced the closest result in the entire city — and one of the closest in Toronto's modern electoral history. Bailão edged Chow by exactly 2 votes: 4,487 to 4,485, a margin of just 0.01 percent. Mark Saunders and Anthony Perruzza effectively tied for third, each taking about 10.7 percent. Perruzza was the ward's own city councillor, having represented the area since 2006; his decision to run for mayor split the local vote in a way that likely prevented either leading candidate from building a clear majority. Only 15,936 votes were cast — the lowest total of any ward — reflecting both the area's chronic low turnout and its distance from the campaign's downtown centre of gravity.

Municipal Issues

The Finch West LRT, under construction at the time of the by-election, was the most significant transit project in the ward's history. The 10.3-kilometre line from Finch West station to Humber College promised to bring modern rapid transit to communities that had relied on overcrowded buses for decades. But construction had disrupted businesses along Finch Avenue, and residents were wary that the project would follow the Eglinton Crosstown into years of delays. The broader question of transit equity — why inner-suburban communities waited decades longer for rapid transit than downtown neighbourhoods — was a persistent undercurrent.

Gun violence and community safety were visceral concerns. Jane and Finch had experienced a series of high-profile shootings in the years before the by-election, and residents were divided between those who wanted more police presence and those who advocated for community-based safety investments. Chow's platform of youth programming and wraparound services competed with Saunders's promise of 200 transit constables and 600 new police officers and Furey's enforcement-first approach. The ward's deep poverty, inadequate social housing maintenance, and lack of local economic opportunity formed the backdrop to these debates — issues that rarely broke through in a mayoral campaign focused on the concerns of higher-turnout downtown and suburban voters.