Ward 24 — Scarborough-Guildwood

Scarborough-Guildwood is an inner-suburban ward in Toronto's southeast corner, stretching from Highway 401 south to the Lake Ontario waterfront and from Markham Road east to Morningside Avenue. The ward takes in the established residential neighbourhoods of Guildwood, West Hill, and Scarborough Village, along with the Scarborough Bluffs — a dramatic geological formation and parkland that provides the area with an identity distinct from the rest of Scarborough's suburban landscape. With a population of roughly 105,000, the ward has a diverse population with significant South Asian, Black, and Filipino communities alongside long-established white working-class and middle-class residents. The housing stock is predominantly post-war single-family homes and townhouses, though apartment clusters along Kingston Road and the waterfront add rental density.

Scarborough-Guildwood was one of the most competitive wards in the city — and the only one where the race was genuinely three-way. Chow won narrowly with 30.5 percent (6,448 votes) over Bailão's 28.4 percent (5,997), a margin of just 451 votes. But the defining feature of the ward's result was Mitzie Hunter's third-place finish at 13.1 percent (2,763 votes) — far above her city-wide average of 2.9 percent. Hunter had represented the provincial riding of Scarborough-Guildwood as an Ontario Liberal MPP from 2013 to 2023, serving as Minister of Education in the Wynne government, before resigning her seat to enter the mayoral race. Her deep local roots and personal following carved out a significant chunk of the vote that would otherwise have likely split between Chow and Bailão. Saunders also performed well at 9.9 percent.

Municipal Issues

The decommissioning of the Scarborough RT — the aging elevated rapid transit line that had served the eastern suburbs since 1985 — left Scarborough-Guildwood residents dependent on replacement bus service with no firm timeline for a permanent alternative. The ward sits beyond the reach of the planned Scarborough subway extension (a single-stop replacement for the RT running to Scarborough Town Centre), and the SRT closure reinforced a long-standing grievance that Scarborough receives less transit investment than the rest of the city despite paying the same property taxes. Hunter's campaign leaned heavily into this transit equity argument, and it resonated in a ward where many commuters faced hour-long bus rides to reach the subway system.

Councillor Paul Ainslie, who had represented the ward since 2006, focused on local quality-of-life issues including road maintenance, park improvements, and the preservation of the Scarborough Bluffs. The by-election campaign's emphasis on housing affordability and homelessness felt somewhat distant in a ward of primarily owner-occupied single-family homes, though rising property taxes and the cost of living were tangible concerns. The ward's distance from downtown — both geographic and psychological — contributed to a sense among residents that the mayoral race was being fought over issues and in neighbourhoods that did not reflect their daily experience of the city.