Ward 2 — Etobicoke Centre

Etobicoke Centre is an upper-middle-class suburban ward in Toronto's west end, anchored by the Kingsway neighbourhood and the commercial corridor along Dundas Street West near Kipling station. With a population of roughly 115,000, the ward encompasses established post-war residential areas like Markland Wood, Humber Heights, and Islington-City Centre West, alongside apartment clusters along the Bloor-Danforth subway line. Homeownership rates are higher than the city average, and the ward has significant Italian and Eastern European heritage communities alongside growing South Asian and Filipino populations. The median household income sits well above the Toronto median, reflecting the ward's predominantly professional and managerial workforce.

Etobicoke Centre delivered Bailão's second-strongest result in the city by vote share, behind only Eglinton–Lawrence. Bailão won 44.7 percent of the vote (16,943 votes) to Olivia Chow's 21.2 percent (8,049), a margin of nearly 8,900 votes. Mark Saunders placed third with 13.6 percent, and Anthony Furey took 8.3 percent. The combined centre-right vote exceeded 66 percent, underscoring the ward's conservative leanings. Bailão dominated among regular election-day voters, capturing more than 15,000 election-day votes compared to Chow's roughly 5,400. Chow led in advance polls as she did city-wide, but by a far narrower margin than in her downtown strongholds. The result mirrored the ward's support for John Tory in both 2018 and 2022.

Municipal Issues

The Eglinton Crosstown LRT, years behind schedule and still unfinished at the time of the by-election, was a source of deep frustration in Etobicoke Centre. The southern portion of the ward borders the Eglinton corridor, and residents had watched construction disrupt local businesses and traffic patterns for over a decade. The project's delays fed broader skepticism about transit expansion promises from City Hall and reinforced the appeal of candidates like Bailão and Saunders who emphasized operational competence.

Housing development pressures along the Kipling and Islington transit corridors intensified in the years before the election, as provincial legislation encouraged higher-density development near transit stations. Long-time residents in established single-family neighbourhoods pushed back against proposed mid-rise and tall buildings, while younger renters in the ward's apartment buildings along Bloor Street faced rising costs. Bailão's housing credentials — she had chaired council's Affordable Housing Committee — resonated in a ward where residents wanted solutions but not at the expense of suburban neighbourhood character. Councillor Stephen Holyday, who represented the ward, endorsed Mark Saunders.