Toronto--St. Paul's

Toronto--St. Paul's is a federal riding in midtown Toronto that encompasses some of the city's most affluent and politically engaged neighbourhoods, including Forest Hill, Deer Park, Davisville Village, Chaplin Estates, Wychwood Park, Casa Loma, and the Rathnelly enclave. The riding is characterized by leafy residential streets, high median incomes, and a highly educated electorate. It has historically been a Liberal stronghold -- held continuously by the party since 1993, including 26 years under former cabinet minister Carolyn Bennett -- until a stunning Conservative by-election victory in June 2024 briefly broke that streak.

Candidates

Leslie Church (Liberal) won the riding, reclaiming it for the Liberals after the 2024 by-election loss. A lawyer and political operative, Church served as chief of staff to several Liberal ministers, including Maryam Monsef, Anita Anand, and former Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland. She was the Liberal candidate in the June 2024 by-election, losing to Conservative Don Stewart by roughly 590 votes in a result that shocked the national political establishment.

Don Stewart (Conservative) was the incumbent, having won the seat in the June 2024 by-election. Stewart grew up in Oshawa and holds degrees in engineering and business from Queen's University. A CFA Charterholder, he worked at BMO and Morgan Stanley and later served as a consultant at the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. His 2024 by-election victory, the first Conservative win in the riding since 1993, was widely seen as a referendum on the Trudeau government's popularity.

Bruce Levy (NDP) is a retired Canadian diplomat who served most recently as Canada's High Commissioner to Sri Lanka. A lifelong resident of the riding who grew up on Rathnelly Avenue, Levy has lived and worked extensively abroad, including postings in the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, and Sri Lanka.

Shane Philips (Green Party) ran as the Green Party candidate.

Joseph Frasca (People's Party - PPC) ran for the People's Party of Canada.

About the Riding

Toronto--St. Paul's became one of the most closely watched ridings in Canada following the June 2024 by-election, when Don Stewart's surprise victory ended over three decades of Liberal dominance. The result reverberated through national politics, contributing to internal Liberal Party pressures that ultimately led to Justin Trudeau's resignation as leader. The 2025 general election thus carried extraordinary symbolic weight: a rematch between Church and Stewart that would test whether the by-election result was a genuine realignment or a protest vote against an unpopular prime minister.

The riding's demographics skew wealthy and well-educated. Forest Hill is one of Toronto's most prestigious residential neighbourhoods, with median household incomes far above the city average. Davisville Village and Deer Park are popular with young professionals and families, while Wychwood Park and the Rathnelly enclave are distinctive communities with deep local identities.

Despite the riding's affluence, the 2025 campaign surfaced issues that resonated across the income spectrum. Healthcare access, particularly the shortage of family doctors, was a common concern. Housing affordability, while less acute than in lower-income ridings, still mattered as even upper-middle-income families struggled with Toronto's real estate market. The US tariff threat and the broader economic outlook shaped the national conversation. Church's victory in the rematch signalled that the 2024 result had indeed been driven by dissatisfaction with Trudeau rather than a lasting shift in the riding's political identity.