Federal Elections
History of Federal Elections
Liberal169 seats
Conservative144 seats
Bloc Québécois22 seats
NDP7 seats
Green1 seats
Polling History
The Liberals lead the Conservatives by 16 points in the average of polls up to October 3, 2026. How the average works
Average: Liberal 47%, Conservative 31%, NDP 11%, BQ 6%, Green 3%.
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Sample | LPC | CPC | NDP | BQ | GPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3 | Liaison Strategies | 1,526 | 46 | 28 | 15 | 6 | 2 |
| Oct 2 | Nanos Research | 1,020 | 49.1 | 28.2 | 10.9 | 6.3 | 3.4 |
| Sep 26 | Liaison Strategies | 1,526 | 46 | 29 | 15 | 6 | 2 |
| Sep 25 | Nanos Research | 1,022 | 49.9 | 27.9 | 11 | 5.6 | 3.5 |
| Sep 23 | Abacus Data | 2,774 | 46 | 34 | 9 | 7 | 2 |
| Sep 19 | Liaison Strategies | 1,526 | 45 | 31 | 15 | 6 | 2 |
Federal seat projection: these polls translated into seats and each riding’s chances, if an election were held at the time of the polls.
Prediction Markets
Another Canada election called by June 30?
Data from Polymarket. Prices reflect implied probability. Not financial advice.