{"title":"British Columbia 2026 seat projection","label":"Projection, not a poll.","version":"bc-shadow-v1","generated":"2026-10-10T05:17:32+00:00","backfilled":true,"as_of":"2026-10-03","freeze_at":"2026-10-23 23:59:59 America/Vancouver (PDT, UTC-7)","data_window":{"from":"2024-10-20","to":"2026-10-03","rule":"Polls dated after the 2024 election, up to the newest poll; kernel weights as on the site."},"poll_set_hash":"245723c7c86b7258","polls_used":[{"date":"2025-01-26","firm":"Leger","sample":1001,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":42,"GRN":10},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-02-15","firm":"Pallas Data","sample":677,"values":{"NDP":48.8,"CON":40.7,"GRN":7.6},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-03-05","firm":"Research Co.","sample":802,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":42,"GRN":11},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-05-04","firm":"Liaison Strategies","sample":800,"values":{"NDP":45,"CON":47,"GRN":7},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-05-25","firm":"Leger","sample":1032,"values":{"NDP":45,"CON":39,"GRN":11},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-06-09","firm":"Research Co.","sample":803,"values":{"NDP":43,"CON":42,"GRN":8,"ONEBC":1,"CENTRE":2},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-06-24","firm":"Mainstreet Research","sample":943,"values":{"NDP":41,"CON":44,"GRN":7},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-09-05","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":811,"values":{"NDP":42,"CON":44,"GRN":10},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-10-03","firm":"Research Co.","sample":801,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":38,"GRN":12,"ONEBC":1,"CENTRE":3},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-10-06","firm":"Cardinal Research","sample":1088,"values":{"NDP":42.5,"CON":41.3,"GRN":10,"ONEBC":3.8},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-10-12","firm":"Leger","sample":1035,"values":{"NDP":48,"CON":38,"GRN":8},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-10-15","firm":"Abacus Data","sample":1000,"values":{"NDP":47,"CON":40,"GRN":8,"ONEBC":1,"CENTRE":3},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-10-25","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":1044,"values":{"NDP":40,"CON":41,"GRN":11,"ONEBC":5,"CENTRE":1},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-11-25","firm":"EKOS","sample":889,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":35,"GRN":9,"ONEBC":8,"CENTRE":2},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-11-25","firm":"Yorkville Strategies","sample":600,"values":{"NDP":40,"CON":42,"GRN":8,"ONEBC":5},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-12-01","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":463,"values":{"NDP":43,"CON":40,"GRN":11},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-12-13","firm":"Pallas Data","sample":923,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":39,"GRN":9,"ONEBC":7},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-12-18","firm":"Mainstreet Research","sample":1902,"values":{"NDP":41,"CON":41,"GRN":10,"ONEBC":7},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-01-26","firm":"Leger","sample":1003,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":38,"GRN":9,"ONEBC":6},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-02-09","firm":"Leger","sample":1007,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":39,"GRN":9,"ONEBC":5},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-02-14","firm":"Pallas Data","sample":988,"values":{"NDP":42,"CON":37,"GRN":13,"ONEBC":6},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-02-24","firm":"One Persuasion","sample":1005,"values":{"NDP":37,"CON":41,"GRN":11,"ONEBC":6},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-02-27","firm":"Pallas Data","sample":1256,"values":{"NDP":42,"CON":40,"GRN":11,"ONEBC":5},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-03-03","firm":"Innovative Research","sample":991,"values":{"NDP":39,"CON":47,"GRN":10},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-03-13","firm":"Mainstreet Research","sample":1054,"values":{"NDP":39,"CON":37,"GRN":12},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-03-17","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":499,"values":{"NDP":42,"CON":44,"GRN":9},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-04-06","firm":"Leger","sample":1003,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":40,"GRN":10,"ONEBC":3},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-04-13","firm":"Mainstreet Research","sample":1275,"values":{"NDP":38,"CON":32.8,"GRN":16.1,"ONEBC":10.9},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-04-28","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":804,"values":{"NDP":36,"CON":46,"GRN":13},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-06-02","firm":"Leger","sample":1002,"values":{"NDP":41,"CON":45,"GRN":8},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-06-05","firm":"Research Co.","sample":803,"values":{"NDP":42,"CON":42,"GRN":9,"ONEBC":2,"CENTRE":3},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-06-12","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":755,"values":{"NDP":36,"CON":47,"GRN":11},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-07-17","firm":"Fairview Strategy","sample":896,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":40,"GRN":12},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-08-03","firm":"Yorkville Strategies","sample":1016,"values":{"NDP":46,"CON":40,"GRN":12,"ONEBC":1,"CENTRE":0},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-08-08","firm":"604 Polling","sample":1124,"values":{"NDP":35,"CON":45,"GRN":12,"ONEBC":2,"CENTRE":2},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-08-14","firm":"Research Co.","sample":801,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":39,"GRN":10,"ONEBC":1,"CENTRE":5},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-09-14","firm":"Ipsos","sample":800,"values":{"NDP":45,"CON":35,"GRN":10,"ONEBC":2,"CENTRE":4},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-09-15","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":749,"values":{"NDP":41,"CON":37,"GRN":13},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-09-18","firm":"Innovative Research","sample":500,"values":{"NDP":43,"CON":39,"GRN":14},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-09-24","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":801,"values":{"NDP":35,"CON":43,"GRN":12,"ONEBC":4,"CENTRE":3},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-09-27","firm":"Liaison Strategies","sample":1000,"values":{"NDP":39,"CON":40,"GRN":11,"ONEBC":3,"CENTRE":4},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-09-28","firm":"Innovative Research","sample":500,"values":{"NDP":41,"CON":39,"GRN":11,"ONEBC":4,"CENTRE":3},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-09-28","firm":"Leger","sample":1003,"values":{"NDP":36,"CON":39,"GRN":13,"ONEBC":5,"CENTRE":5},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-09-29","firm":"Ipsos","sample":1001,"values":{"NDP":40,"CON":42,"GRN":10,"ONEBC":3,"CENTRE":3},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-09-30","firm":"Pollara","sample":3017,"values":{"NDP":38,"CON":38,"GRN":13,"ONEBC":5,"CENTRE":4},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-10-01","firm":"Mainstreet Research","sample":827,"values":{"NDP":37.2,"CON":44.7,"GRN":11.2,"ONEBC":5.7,"CENTRE":1.1},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-10-03","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":1013,"values":{"NDP":43,"CON":48,"GRN":7},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]}],"new_polls":[{"date":"2026-10-03","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":1013,"values":{"NDP":43,"CON":48,"GRN":7}}],"revised_polls":[],"average":{"NDP":{"mean":39.11,"lo":36.42,"hi":41.79},"CON":{"mean":40.42,"lo":37.15,"hi":43.69},"GRN":{"mean":11.55,"lo":9.82,"hi":13.29},"ONEBC":{"mean":4.22,"lo":3.06,"hi":5.38},"CENTRE":{"mean":3.5,"lo":2.34,"hi":4.65}},"model_target":{"NDP":39.11,"CON":40.42,"GRN":11.55,"ONEBC":4.22,"CENTRE":3.5,"OTH":1.2},"parameters":{"sigma_nat":4.601,"sigma_reg":5.246,"sigma_rid":6.785,"df_nat":4,"df_reg":4,"df_rid":4,"alpha":0.5,"draws":10000,"seed":20261024,"absent_transfers":{"GRN":{"NDP":0.6,"CON":0.21,"CENTRE":0.13,"ONEBC":0.03,"OTH":0.03},"ONEBC":{"CON":0.85,"NDP":0.1,"OTH":0.05},"CENTRE":{"CON":0.5,"NDP":0.37,"GRN":0.13}},"bc_united_residual_transfer":{"CENTRE":0.3,"CON":0.44,"NDP":0.175,"GRN":0.05,"OTH":0.035},"new_party_rules":{"ONEBC":"proxy","CENTRE":"proxy"},"regions":["Metro Vancouver","Fraser Valley","Vancouver Island","Interior and North"],"majority":47,"independents_carried":{"306":[{"name":"Jordan Kealy","label_2024":"Conservative Party","kind":"party","share_2024":74.4,"carried":29.0,"sdlog":0.57}]},"independent_rule":{"party":{"median":0.39,"sdlog":0.57},"independent":{"median":1.05,"sdlog":0.25}},"regional_adjustment":{"applied":true,"rule":"shrink province-wide swing toward regional poll splits","groups":{"Metro Vancouver":{"polls":3,"n":1478,"model_dev":{"CON":-2.51,"NDP":5.45,"GRN":-2.47},"poll_dev":{"CON":-2.35,"NDP":3.68,"GRN":-0.67},"lambda":{"CON":0.825,"NDP":0.83,"GRN":0.728},"adj":{"CON":0.53,"NDP":-1.32,"GRN":1.33},"model_after":{"CON":38.44,"NDP":43.24,"GRN":10.41}},"Vancouver Island":{"polls":2,"n":341,"model_dev":{"CON":-9.51,"NDP":0.1,"GRN":11.65},"poll_dev":{"CON":-7.02,"NDP":4.51,"GRN":0.99},"lambda":{"CON":0.463,"NDP":0.613,"GRN":0.694},"adj":{"CON":1.55,"NDP":2.85,"GRN":-7.38},"model_after":{"CON":32.46,"NDP":42.06,"GRN":15.82}},"Rest of BC":{"polls":2,"n":681,"model_dev":{"CON":8.63,"NDP":-6.73,"GRN":-3.79},"poll_dev":{"CON":6.0,"NDP":-7.01,"GRN":1.01},"lambda":{"CON":0.742,"NDP":0.739,"GRN":0.558},"adj":{"CON":-1.56,"NDP":-0.06,"GRN":2.69},"model_after":{"CON":47.06,"NDP":32.29,"GRN":10.44}}},"polls":[{"firm":"Ipsos","end":"2026-09-29","sample":1001},{"firm":"Leger","end":"2026-09-28","sample":1003},{"firm":"Angus Reid","end":"2026-10-03","sample":1013}]}},"province":{"seats":{"NDP":{"seats_median":40.0,"seats_mean":40.1855,"seats_lo90":20.0,"seats_hi90":61.0,"p_majority":0.2891,"p_most_seats":0.3113,"vote_median":41.0518,"vote_lo90":34.3499,"vote_hi90":47.4569},"CON":{"seats_median":51.0,"seats_mean":50.7708,"seats_lo90":30.0,"seats_hi90":71.0,"p_majority":0.6459,"p_most_seats":0.671,"vote_median":44.268,"vote_lo90":37.7306,"vote_hi90":50.9798},"GRN":{"seats_median":1.0,"seats_mean":1.821,"seats_lo90":0.0,"seats_hi90":4.0,"p_majority":0.0001,"p_most_seats":0.0001,"vote_median":10.6965,"vote_lo90":6.8674,"vote_hi90":14.6302},"ONEBC":{"seats_median":0.0,"seats_mean":0.0034,"seats_lo90":0.0,"seats_hi90":0.0,"p_majority":0.0,"p_most_seats":0.0,"vote_median":1.6591,"vote_lo90":0.5654,"vote_hi90":2.898},"CENTRE":{"seats_median":0.0,"seats_mean":0.0045,"seats_lo90":0.0,"seats_hi90":0.0,"p_majority":0.0,"p_most_seats":0.0,"vote_median":1.5578,"vote_lo90":0.5058,"vote_hi90":2.6719},"OTH":{"seats_median":0.0,"seats_mean":0.2148,"seats_lo90":0.0,"seats_hi90":1.0,"p_majority":0.0,"p_most_seats":0.0,"vote_median":0.6853,"vote_lo90":0.3077,"vote_hi90":1.1765}},"p_minority":0.0649,"p_tied_most_seats":0.0176,"ridings_led":{"NDP":37,"CON":55,"GRN":1,"ONEBC":0,"CENTRE":0,"OTH":0},"ridings_led_point":{"NDP":37,"CON":55,"GRN":1,"ONEBC":0,"CENTRE":0,"OTH":0},"categories":{"Solid":14,"Likely":27,"Leans":39,"Toss-up":13},"toss_ups":13,"seat_histogram":{"NDP":{"0":12,"1":9,"2":9,"3":5,"4":6,"5":8,"6":11,"7":16,"8":14,"9":11,"10":21,"11":24,"12":29,"13":32,"14":29,"15":35,"16":42,"17":35,"18":56,"19":72,"20":77,"21":87,"22":90,"23":108,"24":124,"25":132,"26":186,"27":165,"28":200,"29":198,"30":242,"31":227,"32":282,"33":247,"34":290,"35":311,"36":341,"37":317,"38":343,"39":354,"40":356,"41":335,"42":377,"43":298,"44":316,"45":322,"46":308,"47":286,"48":267,"49":235,"50":236,"51":193,"52":164,"53":188,"54":153,"55":157,"56":124,"57":96,"58":94,"59":84,"60":78,"61":72,"62":62,"63":58,"64":43,"65":34,"66":26,"67":33,"68":25,"69":30,"70":17,"71":21,"72":13,"73":13,"74":10,"75":7,"76":5,"77":6,"78":9,"79":7,"80":8,"81":8,"82":4,"83":2,"84":6,"85":2,"86":4,"87":2,"88":4,"89":3,"91":2},"CON":{"0":1,"1":1,"2":3,"3":6,"4":2,"5":3,"6":7,"7":4,"8":1,"9":3,"10":7,"11":6,"12":7,"13":11,"14":7,"15":6,"16":8,"17":15,"18":10,"19":12,"20":19,"21":25,"22":15,"23":34,"24":37,"25":35,"26":33,"27":41,"28":55,"29":70,"30":64,"31":85,"32":83,"33":80,"34":126,"35":102,"36":146,"37":153,"38":182,"39":198,"40":187,"41":205,"42":236,"43":248,"44":316,"45":317,"46":329,"47":324,"48":303,"49":347,"50":350,"51":334,"52":373,"53":302,"54":371,"55":301,"56":303,"57":311,"58":245,"59":265,"60":256,"61":208,"62":224,"63":201,"64":169,"65":160,"66":149,"67":110,"68":118,"69":98,"70":92,"71":71,"72":58,"73":69,"74":48,"75":39,"76":33,"77":31,"78":29,"79":24,"80":24,"81":23,"82":19,"83":10,"84":18,"85":6,"86":7,"87":10,"88":8,"89":2,"90":5,"91":5,"92":5,"93":1},"GRN":{"0":699,"1":4310,"2":2856,"3":1321,"4":458,"5":163,"6":91,"7":35,"8":14,"9":14,"10":9,"11":8,"12":5,"13":6,"14":2,"15":3,"16":2,"18":1,"21":1,"38":1,"51":1},"ONEBC":{"0":9979,"1":18,"2":1,"3":1,"11":1},"CENTRE":{"0":9957,"1":41,"2":2},"OTH":{"0":7853,"1":2146,"2":1}},"projected_vote":{"NDP":41.25,"CON":44.28,"GRN":10.69,"ONEBC":1.65,"CENTRE":1.52,"OTH":0.63}},"ridings":[{"id":"258","name":"Abbotsford-Mission","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Reann Gasper","share":55.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":55.4,"NDP":44.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":42.51,"CON":48.11,"ONEBC":5.13,"CENTRE":4.25},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Vacant","party_at_dissolution":null,"not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":"vacant"},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7014,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.2984,"CON":0.7014,"ONEBC":0.0001,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":40.73,"CON":49.45,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":4.85,"CENTRE":3.98,"OTH":1.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":25.78,"median":40.72,"hi90":55.14},"CON":{"lo90":33.47,"median":49.02,"hi90":63.88},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.07,"median":4.48,"hi90":12.03},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.09,"median":3.66,"hi90":10.41},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.59,"hi90":4.86}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"vacant","note":"Vacant: Reann Gasper (Conservative) resigned 2026-08-22; the 2026-09-26 by-election was cancelled by dissolution. Kerry-Lynne Findlay is not a candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: no incumbent."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"259","name":"Abbotsford South","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Bruce Banman","share":61.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":61.6,"NDP":35.2,"IND":3.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":34.2,"CON":54.98,"ONEBC":5.92,"CENTRE":4.89},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Bruce Banman","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9211,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0789,"CON":0.9211},"point":{"NDP":34.93,"CON":59.42,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":5.65,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":21.53,"median":35.12,"hi90":49.89},"CON":{"lo90":43.93,"median":59.14,"hi90":73.11},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.15,"median":5.24,"hi90":13.19}},"baseline_moves":["Amandeep Singh (independent 2024, 3.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Bruce Banman: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"260","name":"Abbotsford West","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Korky Neufeld","share":58.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":58.4,"NDP":36.9,"IND":4.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":35.85,"CON":52.32,"ONEBC":5.62,"CENTRE":6.21},"running":["NDP","CON","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Korky Neufeld","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9202,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0797,"CON":0.9202,"CENTRE":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":35.18,"CON":59.0,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":5.82,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":20.81,"median":35.09,"hi90":49.55},"CON":{"lo90":43.8,"median":58.93,"hi90":73.42},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.42,"median":5.57,"hi90":13.2}},"baseline_moves":["James Davison (independent 2024, 4.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"261","name":"Boundary-Similkameen","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Donegal Wilson","share":48.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":48.4,"NDP":42.6,"GRN":5.9,"IND":3.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":41.47,"CON":44.12,"GRN":5.82,"ONEBC":4.69,"CENTRE":3.89},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Donegal Wilson","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5395,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4604,"CON":0.5395,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":47.0,"CON":48.34,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":4.66,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.97,"median":46.81,"hi90":60.51},"CON":{"lo90":34.52,"median":48.45,"hi90":62.29},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.41,"median":4.21,"hi90":11.38}},"baseline_moves":["Sean Taylor (independent 2024, 3.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Donegal Wilson: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"262","name":"Bulkley Valley-Stikine","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Sharon L. Hartwell","share":52.3},"shares_2024":{"CON":52.3,"NDP":38.9,"GRN":6.3,"OTH":2.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":37.01,"CON":45.4,"GRN":6.24,"ONEBC":4.85,"CENTRE":4.01,"OTH":2.49},"running":["NDP","CON","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Sharon Hartwell","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7458,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.2541,"CON":0.7458,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":43.26,"CON":52.96,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.77},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":29.95,"median":43.1,"hi90":56.35},"CON":{"lo90":39.57,"median":53.2,"hi90":66.56},"OTH":{"lo90":0.59,"median":3.31,"hi90":8.61}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"263","name":"Burnaby Centre","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Anne Kang","share":57.3},"shares_2024":{"NDP":57.3,"CON":42.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":55.04,"CON":37.71,"ONEBC":3.96,"CENTRE":3.29},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Anne Kang","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.6656,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.6656,"CON":0.3344},"point":{"NDP":50.93,"CON":44.11,"GRN":2.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":2.96,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":36.54,"median":50.5,"hi90":64.03},"CON":{"lo90":30.26,"median":44.08,"hi90":57.75},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.61,"hi90":8.22},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.65,"hi90":8.24}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"264","name":"Burnaby East","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Reah Arora","share":51.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.8,"CON":40.5,"GRN":7.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":49.82,"CON":35.75,"GRN":7.55,"ONEBC":3.76,"CENTRE":3.12},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Rohini Arora","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.6717,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.6717,"CON":0.3265,"GRN":0.0018},"point":{"NDP":44.91,"CON":38.55,"GRN":13.0,"ONEBC":3.55,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":31.19,"median":44.74,"hi90":58.21},"CON":{"lo90":25.65,"median":38.54,"hi90":52.18},"GRN":{"lo90":4.13,"median":12.79,"hi90":22.46},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.2,"hi90":9.21}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"265","name":"Burnaby-New Westminster","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Raj Chouhan","share":60.0},"shares_2024":{"NDP":60.0,"CON":34.7,"IND":5.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":59.17,"CON":33.94,"GRN":0.39,"ONEBC":3.54,"CENTRE":2.95},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Raj Chouhan","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8325,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8325,"CON":0.1675},"point":{"NDP":55.94,"CON":41.13,"GRN":2.93,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":41.75,"median":55.55,"hi90":68.54},"CON":{"lo90":27.9,"median":41.12,"hi90":55.08},"GRN":{"lo90":0.05,"median":2.58,"hi90":9.27}},"baseline_moves":["Daniel Kofi Ampong (independent 2024, 5.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"266","name":"Burnaby North","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Janet Routledge","share":53.3},"shares_2024":{"NDP":53.3,"CON":43.0,"IND":3.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":52.02,"CON":39.99,"GRN":0.28,"ONEBC":4.22,"CENTRE":3.5},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Janet Routledge","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.596,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.596,"CON":0.4039,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":48.6,"CON":44.49,"GRN":2.8,"ONEBC":4.11,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":33.93,"median":48.14,"hi90":61.84},"CON":{"lo90":30.69,"median":44.52,"hi90":58.26},"GRN":{"lo90":0.06,"median":2.36,"hi90":9.08},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.72,"hi90":10.13}},"baseline_moves":["Martin Kendell (independent 2024, 3.7%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"267","name":"Burnaby South-Metrotown","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Paul Choi","share":49.3},"shares_2024":{"NDP":49.3,"CON":41.6,"GRN":6.3,"IND":1.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":48.02,"CON":38.2,"GRN":6.4,"ONEBC":4.03,"CENTRE":3.35},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Paul Choi","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5579,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5579,"CON":0.4414,"GRN":0.0006,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":43.45,"CON":41.3,"GRN":11.43,"ONEBC":3.81,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":29.78,"median":43.39,"hi90":56.93},"CON":{"lo90":27.84,"median":41.3,"hi90":55.19},"GRN":{"lo90":2.98,"median":11.16,"hi90":20.37},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.41,"hi90":9.47}},"baseline_moves":["Meiling Chia (independent 2024, 1.9%) not running: transferred","MichaelAngelo Abc RobinHood (independent 2024, 0.9%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"268","name":"Cariboo-Chilcotin","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Lorne Doerkson","share":69.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":69.6,"NDP":30.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":28.71,"CON":59.52,"ONEBC":6.45,"CENTRE":5.32},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Lorne Doerkson","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9878,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0121,"CON":0.9878,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":28.35,"CON":68.7,"GRN":2.95,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":15.27,"median":28.13,"hi90":41.58},"CON":{"lo90":54.2,"median":68.36,"hi90":81.28},"GRN":{"lo90":0.12,"median":2.54,"hi90":10.52}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"leader_seat","note":"Conservative interim leader Lorne Doerkson.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low (safe seats)."}]},{"id":"269","name":"Chilliwack-Cultus Lake","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"A'aliya Warbus","share":54.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":54.6,"NDP":45.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":43.3,"CON":47.45,"ONEBC":5.06,"CENTRE":4.19},"running":["NDP","CON"],"incumbent":{"name":"Áʼa꞉líya Warbus","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7512,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.2488,"CON":0.7512},"point":{"NDP":44.28,"CON":55.72,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":29.53,"median":44.25,"hi90":59.28},"CON":{"lo90":40.72,"median":55.75,"hi90":70.47}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Áʼa꞉líya Warbus: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"270","name":"Chilliwack North","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Heather Maahs","share":54.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":54.6,"NDP":37.7,"GRN":5.5,"IND":2.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":35.82,"CON":47.26,"GRN":5.43,"ONEBC":5.06,"CENTRE":6.44},"running":["NDP","CON","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Heather Maahs","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8059,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1941,"CON":0.8059},"point":{"NDP":39.56,"CON":53.39,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":7.05,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":25.37,"median":39.55,"hi90":54.03},"CON":{"lo90":38.53,"median":53.45,"hi90":68.19},"CENTRE":{"lo90":1.52,"median":6.72,"hi90":14.3}},"baseline_moves":["Dan Grice (independent 2024) runs again as CENTRE"],"notes":[{"type":"returning_candidate","note":"Dan Grice took 2.3% as an independent in 2024 and is the 2026 CentreBC candidate; v1 moves his 2024 vote to CentreBC.","v1":"His 2024 votes are assigned to CentreBC.","why_it_may_matter":"Low."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"271","name":"Columbia River-Revelstoke","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Scott McInnis","share":47.9},"shares_2024":{"CON":47.9,"NDP":44.3,"GRN":7.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":42.3,"CON":41.85,"GRN":7.72,"ONEBC":4.44,"CENTRE":3.68},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Scott McInnis","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6911,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3056,"CON":0.6911,"GRN":0.0033},"point":{"NDP":38.93,"CON":45.79,"GRN":15.28,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":24.47,"median":38.59,"hi90":52.96},"CON":{"lo90":31.98,"median":45.92,"hi90":60.52},"GRN":{"lo90":5.73,"median":15.11,"hi90":25.59}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Scott McInnis: left or was removed from the Conservative caucus in September 2026 and returned on 2026-09-21; Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low."}]},{"id":"272","name":"Coquitlam-Burke Mountain","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Jodie Wickens","share":50.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":50.8,"CON":49.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":48.64,"CON":43.02,"ONEBC":4.56,"CENTRE":3.78},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jodie Wickens","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6502,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3498,"CON":0.6502},"point":{"NDP":44.59,"CON":50.02,"GRN":1.98,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":3.4,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":30.26,"median":44.19,"hi90":57.61},"CON":{"lo90":35.78,"median":49.93,"hi90":63.76},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.55,"hi90":8.01},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.07,"hi90":9.11}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"273","name":"Coquitlam-Maillardville","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Jennifer Blatherwick","share":51.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.8,"CON":39.6,"GRN":6.3,"IND":2.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":50.35,"CON":36.25,"GRN":6.43,"ONEBC":3.81,"CENTRE":3.17},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jennifer Blatherwick","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5897,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5897,"CON":0.4095,"GRN":0.0008},"point":{"NDP":46.02,"CON":42.52,"GRN":11.46,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.13,"median":45.78,"hi90":59.53},"CON":{"lo90":29.38,"median":42.63,"hi90":56.53},"GRN":{"lo90":3.25,"median":11.18,"hi90":20.64}},"baseline_moves":["Ken Holowanky (independent 2024, 2.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"274","name":"Courtenay-Comox","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Brennan Day","share":38.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":38.8,"NDP":38.6,"GRN":20.7,"IND":1.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":37.28,"CON":34.8,"GRN":20.61,"ONEBC":3.68,"CENTRE":3.63},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Brennan Day","party_at_dissolution":"IND","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.66,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3224,"CON":0.66,"GRN":0.0175,"CENTRE":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":35.68,"CON":41.83,"GRN":17.68,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":4.82,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":21.34,"median":35.38,"hi90":49.8},"CON":{"lo90":27.23,"median":41.88,"hi90":57.1},"GRN":{"lo90":5.41,"median":17.2,"hi90":30.39},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.69,"hi90":11.37}},"baseline_moves":["John Hedican (independent 2024, 1.5%) not running: transferred","Devin Howell (independent 2024, 0.4%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Brennan Day left the Conservative caucus on 2026-08-26 and returned after the writ; Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low."}]},{"id":"275","name":"Cowichan Valley","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Debra Toporowski","share":40.5},"shares_2024":{"NDP":40.5,"CON":37.6,"GRN":19.8,"IND":1.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":39.36,"CON":34.18,"GRN":19.76,"ONEBC":3.61,"CENTRE":2.99,"OTH":0.1},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Debra Toporowski","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6001,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3899,"CON":0.6001,"GRN":0.01},"point":{"NDP":38.67,"CON":42.25,"GRN":17.28,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":1.8},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":24.04,"median":38.39,"hi90":52.58},"CON":{"lo90":28.55,"median":42.39,"hi90":57.06},"GRN":{"lo90":5.53,"median":16.69,"hi90":29.38},"OTH":{"lo90":0.1,"median":1.48,"hi90":5.88}},"baseline_moves":["Eden Haythornthwaite (independent 2024, 1.2%) not running: transferred","Jon Coleman (independent 2024, 0.9%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"276","name":"Delta North","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Ravi Kahlon","share":52.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":52.7,"CON":40.2,"GRN":6.2,"OTH":0.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":50.68,"CON":35.51,"GRN":6.14,"ONEBC":3.73,"CENTRE":3.1,"OTH":0.85},"running":["NDP","CON","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Ravi Kahlon","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7371,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7371,"CON":0.2629},"point":{"NDP":52.66,"CON":43.13,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":4.22,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":39.39,"median":52.49,"hi90":65.56},"CON":{"lo90":29.97,"median":43.15,"hi90":56.52},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.96,"median":3.97,"hi90":9.3}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Ravi Kahlon (NDP) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate: loss of incumbent (The Writ docks a party 3-4 points when its incumbent leaves)."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"277","name":"Delta South","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Ian Paton","share":55.1},"shares_2024":{"CON":55.1,"NDP":44.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":42.81,"CON":47.86,"ONEBC":5.1,"CENTRE":4.23},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Ian Paton","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8173,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1827,"CON":0.8173},"point":{"NDP":39.76,"CON":52.83,"GRN":2.47,"ONEBC":4.94,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":26.15,"median":39.46,"hi90":53.01},"CON":{"lo90":38.85,"median":52.8,"hi90":65.72},"GRN":{"lo90":0.1,"median":2.05,"hi90":8.5},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.56,"hi90":11.17}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Ian Paton: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."},{"type":"notable_candidate","note":"Jim McMurtry (OneBC's first nominee; independent in Surrey-Serpentine River in 2024, PPC federally in 2025) runs here against incumbent Ian Paton (Conservative).","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate."}]},{"id":"278","name":"Esquimalt-Colwood","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Darlene Rotchford","share":51.5},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.5,"CON":29.2,"GRN":19.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":49.78,"CON":26.1,"GRN":19.14,"ONEBC":2.71,"CENTRE":2.26},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Darlene Rotchford","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.856,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.856,"CON":0.133,"GRN":0.011},"point":{"NDP":48.64,"CON":31.73,"GRN":16.68,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":2.96,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":33.51,"median":48.48,"hi90":63.45},"CON":{"lo90":18.1,"median":31.7,"hi90":46.47},"GRN":{"lo90":4.75,"median":16.15,"hi90":29.33},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.57,"hi90":8.75}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"279","name":"Fraser-Nicola","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Tony Luck","share":54.3},"shares_2024":{"CON":54.3,"NDP":36.4,"GRN":9.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":34.62,"CON":47.04,"GRN":9.14,"ONEBC":5.04,"CENTRE":4.16},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Tony Luck","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9026,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0937,"CON":0.9026,"GRN":0.0037},"point":{"NDP":31.59,"CON":50.93,"GRN":17.48,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":17.87,"median":31.26,"hi90":44.97},"CON":{"lo90":36.85,"median":51.04,"hi90":65.51},"GRN":{"lo90":7.74,"median":17.35,"hi90":28.24}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"280","name":"Juan de Fuca-Malahat","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Dana Lajeunesse","share":38.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":38.8,"CON":38.2,"GRN":23.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":37.21,"CON":33.56,"GRN":22.76,"ONEBC":3.54,"CENTRE":2.94},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Dana Lajeunesse","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5278,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4384,"CON":0.5278,"GRN":0.0338},"point":{"NDP":36.25,"CON":37.48,"GRN":19.79,"ONEBC":5.07,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":1.41},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":21.84,"median":36.05,"hi90":50.37},"CON":{"lo90":23.36,"median":37.55,"hi90":52.24},"GRN":{"lo90":7.0,"median":19.25,"hi90":32.67},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.73,"hi90":11.62},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.05,"hi90":5.53}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"281","name":"Kamloops Centre","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Peter Milobar","share":48.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":48.8,"NDP":40.9,"GRN":10.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":39.06,"CON":42.54,"GRN":10.12,"ONEBC":4.53,"CENTRE":3.75},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Peter Milobar","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6947,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.2929,"CON":0.6947,"GRN":0.0122,"ONEBC":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":34.6,"CON":41.87,"GRN":18.74,"ONEBC":3.93,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.86},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":20.47,"median":34.08,"hi90":47.83},"CON":{"lo90":27.72,"median":41.72,"hi90":56.16},"GRN":{"lo90":8.78,"median":18.54,"hi90":29.87},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.49,"hi90":10.33},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.45,"hi90":4.69}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Peter Milobar: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."}]},{"id":"282","name":"Kamloops-North Thompson","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Ward Stamer","share":59.7},"shares_2024":{"CON":59.7,"NDP":32.9,"GRN":7.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":31.19,"CON":51.44,"GRN":7.25,"ONEBC":5.54,"CENTRE":4.57},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Ward Stamer","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8687,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.131,"CON":0.8687,"ONEBC":0.0003},"point":{"NDP":38.74,"CON":55.82,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":5.44,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":25.49,"median":38.42,"hi90":52.24},"CON":{"lo90":41.89,"median":55.98,"hi90":69.24},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.54,"median":5.12,"hi90":12.21}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"283","name":"Kelowna Centre","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Kristina Loewen","share":42.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":42.8,"NDP":42.7,"IND":10.1,"GRN":4.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":43.53,"CON":43.71,"GRN":4.26,"ONEBC":4.64,"CENTRE":3.85},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Kristina Loewen","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5101,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4898,"CON":0.5101,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":47.62,"CON":47.81,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":4.57,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":33.31,"median":47.4,"hi90":61.24},"CON":{"lo90":33.99,"median":47.82,"hi90":61.99},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.31,"median":4.17,"hi90":11.21}},"baseline_moves":["Michael Humer (independent 2024, 10.1%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Michael Humer took 10.1% as an independent in 2024; not running. His vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"284","name":"Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Tara Armstrong","share":53.9},"shares_2024":{"CON":53.9,"NDP":35.2,"IND":6.5,"GRN":4.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":35.1,"CON":50.29,"GRN":4.76,"ONEBC":5.4,"CENTRE":4.46},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Tara Armstrong","party_at_dissolution":"IND","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.896,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1032,"CON":0.896,"GRN":0.0008},"point":{"NDP":32.64,"CON":51.74,"GRN":10.72,"ONEBC":4.9,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":18.94,"median":32.36,"hi90":46.18},"CON":{"lo90":36.97,"median":51.7,"hi90":66.33},"GRN":{"lo90":2.15,"median":10.52,"hi90":20.35},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.55,"hi90":11.99}},"baseline_moves":["Kevin Kraft (independent 2024, 6.5%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Tara Armstrong (elected Conservative 2024; OneBC co-founder, then independent) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate."}]},{"id":"285","name":"Kelowna-Mission","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Gavin Dew","share":51.5},"shares_2024":{"CON":51.5,"NDP":32.6,"IND":11.0,"GRN":4.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":33.7,"CON":50.68,"GRN":5.68,"ONEBC":5.44,"CENTRE":4.5},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Gavin Dew","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9144,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0839,"CON":0.9144,"GRN":0.0015,"ONEBC":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":31.1,"CON":51.81,"GRN":12.18,"ONEBC":4.91,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":17.47,"median":30.68,"hi90":44.51},"CON":{"lo90":37.52,"median":52.01,"hi90":66.14},"GRN":{"lo90":3.06,"median":11.93,"hi90":22.2},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.56,"hi90":11.91}},"baseline_moves":["Ashley Ramsay (independent 2024, 11.0%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Ashley Ramsay took 11.0% as an independent in 2024; not running. Her vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"286","name":"Kootenay Central","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Brittny Anderson","share":39.6},"shares_2024":{"NDP":39.6,"CON":31.7,"GRN":18.7,"IND":10.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":40.56,"CON":33.67,"GRN":19.28,"ONEBC":3.55,"CENTRE":2.94},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Brittny Anderson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.4127,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4127,"CON":0.3075,"GRN":0.2797,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":33.93,"CON":31.51,"GRN":31.64,"ONEBC":2.92,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":19.9,"median":33.51,"hi90":47.23},"CON":{"lo90":17.91,"median":31.35,"hi90":45.43},"GRN":{"lo90":20.0,"median":31.69,"hi90":44.07},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.5,"hi90":8.8}},"baseline_moves":["Corinne Mori (independent 2024, 10.0%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Corinne Mori took 10.0% as an independent in 2024; not running. Her vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"287","name":"Kootenay-Monashee","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Steve Morissette","share":52.0},"shares_2024":{"NDP":52.0,"CON":38.9,"GRN":9.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":50.05,"CON":34.34,"GRN":9.01,"ONEBC":3.6,"CENTRE":3.0},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Steve Morissette","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7577,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7577,"CON":0.2354,"GRN":0.0068,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":45.2,"CON":34.43,"GRN":17.19,"ONEBC":3.18,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":30.25,"median":44.88,"hi90":58.89},"CON":{"lo90":20.63,"median":34.48,"hi90":48.83},"GRN":{"lo90":7.22,"median":17.01,"hi90":27.88},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.77,"hi90":9.51}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"288","name":"Kootenay-Rockies","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Pete Davis","share":42.7},"shares_2024":{"CON":42.7,"IND":30.4,"NDP":21.7,"GRN":5.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":25.79,"CON":48.55,"GRN":6.65,"ONEBC":5.24,"CENTRE":13.77},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Pete Davis","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9506,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0404,"CON":0.9506,"GRN":0.0052,"ONEBC":0.0002,"CENTRE":0.0036},"point":{"NDP":22.22,"CON":47.89,"GRN":13.32,"ONEBC":4.73,"CENTRE":11.84,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":9.47,"median":21.94,"hi90":35.06},"CON":{"lo90":32.87,"median":47.99,"hi90":62.87},"GRN":{"lo90":3.85,"median":13.1,"hi90":23.8},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.41,"hi90":11.53},"CENTRE":{"lo90":1.93,"median":11.41,"hi90":21.51}},"baseline_moves":["Tom Shypitka (independent 2024, 30.4%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Tom Shypitka (ex-BC United MLA) took 30.4% as an independent in 2024; not running. His vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"289","name":"Ladysmith-Oceanside","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Stephanie Higginson","share":41.5},"shares_2024":{"NDP":41.5,"CON":35.5,"IND":16.3,"GRN":6.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":43.8,"CON":40.5,"GRN":7.85,"ONEBC":4.29,"CENTRE":3.56},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Stephanie Higginson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6819,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3176,"CON":0.6819,"GRN":0.0005},"point":{"NDP":42.76,"CON":49.45,"GRN":7.79,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":27.87,"median":42.48,"hi90":56.68},"CON":{"lo90":35.3,"median":49.7,"hi90":64.14},"GRN":{"lo90":0.71,"median":7.31,"hi90":17.3}},"baseline_moves":["Adam Walker (independent 2024, 16.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Adam Walker took 16.3% as an independent in 2024; not running. His vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"290","name":"Langford-Highlands","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Ravi Parmar","share":51.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.9,"CON":37.4,"GRN":10.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":49.92,"CON":33.1,"GRN":10.63,"ONEBC":3.47,"CENTRE":2.89},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Ravi Parmar","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7067,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7067,"CON":0.2917,"GRN":0.0015,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":46.95,"CON":38.38,"GRN":9.36,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":3.68,"OTH":1.62},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":31.85,"median":46.53,"hi90":60.92},"CON":{"lo90":24.43,"median":38.29,"hi90":52.81},"GRN":{"lo90":0.37,"median":8.81,"hi90":19.33},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.38,"hi90":9.58},"OTH":{"lo90":0.06,"median":1.25,"hi90":5.73}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"291","name":"Langley-Abbotsford","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Harman Bhangu","share":55.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":55.6,"NDP":33.7,"GRN":5.6,"IND":4.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":33.02,"CON":50.33,"GRN":5.79,"ONEBC":5.41,"CENTRE":4.47,"OTH":0.99},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Harman Bhangu","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9036,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.095,"CON":0.9036,"GRN":0.0014},"point":{"NDP":30.18,"CON":50.98,"GRN":12.24,"ONEBC":4.83,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":1.77},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":16.38,"median":30.0,"hi90":44.12},"CON":{"lo90":35.62,"median":50.76,"hi90":65.42},"GRN":{"lo90":3.45,"median":12.01,"hi90":21.78},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.47,"hi90":11.89},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.32,"hi90":6.0}},"baseline_moves":["Karen Long (independent 2024, 4.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"292","name":"Langley-Walnut Grove","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Misty Van Popta","share":49.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":49.6,"NDP":44.8,"GRN":5.1,"IND":0.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":42.85,"CON":43.45,"GRN":5.09,"ONEBC":4.62,"CENTRE":4.0},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Misty Van Popta","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6877,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3113,"CON":0.6877,"GRN":0.001},"point":{"NDP":39.05,"CON":46.82,"GRN":10.77,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":3.36,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":23.75,"median":38.92,"hi90":54.13},"CON":{"lo90":31.28,"median":46.76,"hi90":61.63},"GRN":{"lo90":1.92,"median":10.45,"hi90":20.33},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.96,"hi90":9.78}},"baseline_moves":["Carlos Suarez Rubio (independent 2024, 0.5%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"293","name":"Langley-Willowbrook","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Jody Toor","share":48.2},"shares_2024":{"CON":48.2,"NDP":44.4,"GRN":7.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":42.46,"CON":42.12,"GRN":7.25,"ONEBC":4.47,"CENTRE":3.71},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jody Toor","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6006,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3963,"CON":0.6006,"GRN":0.0031},"point":{"NDP":38.79,"CON":42.66,"GRN":14.56,"ONEBC":3.99,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":23.74,"median":38.52,"hi90":53.16},"CON":{"lo90":27.59,"median":42.55,"hi90":57.52},"GRN":{"lo90":5.24,"median":14.33,"hi90":24.9},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.7,"hi90":10.7}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"294","name":"Maple Ridge East","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Lawrence Mok","share":47.0},"shares_2024":{"CON":47.0,"NDP":46.6,"GRN":6.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.62,"CON":41.14,"GRN":6.26,"ONEBC":4.36,"CENTRE":3.61},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Lawrence Mok","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6014,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3971,"CON":0.6014,"GRN":0.0015},"point":{"NDP":41.11,"CON":44.9,"GRN":12.91,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":1.08},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":25.91,"median":40.81,"hi90":55.19},"CON":{"lo90":29.95,"median":44.81,"hi90":59.92},"GRN":{"lo90":3.94,"median":12.6,"hi90":22.87},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.69,"hi90":4.84}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"295","name":"Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Lisa Beare","share":54.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":54.9,"CON":45.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":52.65,"CON":39.69,"ONEBC":4.18,"CENTRE":3.48},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Lisa Beare","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7226,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7226,"CON":0.2773,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":51.27,"CON":41.39,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":4.01,"CENTRE":3.33,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":36.47,"median":51.16,"hi90":65.49},"CON":{"lo90":26.32,"median":41.06,"hi90":55.74},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.03,"median":3.66,"hi90":10.81},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.98,"hi90":9.57}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"296","name":"Mid Island-Pacific Rim","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Josie Osborne","share":48.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":48.7,"CON":39.5,"GRN":11.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":46.83,"CON":34.79,"GRN":11.68,"ONEBC":3.66,"CENTRE":3.04},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Josie Osborne","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5711,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5711,"CON":0.4276,"GRN":0.0013},"point":{"NDP":46.05,"CON":43.11,"GRN":10.85,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":31.46,"median":45.82,"hi90":60.34},"CON":{"lo90":28.71,"median":43.21,"hi90":57.69},"GRN":{"lo90":1.55,"median":10.41,"hi90":21.33}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"297","name":"Nanaimo-Gabriola Island","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Sheila Malcolmson","share":52.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":52.7,"CON":34.7,"GRN":12.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":50.86,"CON":30.77,"GRN":12.48,"ONEBC":3.21,"CENTRE":2.68},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Sheila Malcolmson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7741,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7741,"CON":0.2243,"GRN":0.0016},"point":{"NDP":50.13,"CON":38.38,"GRN":11.49,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":35.28,"median":49.92,"hi90":64.25},"CON":{"lo90":24.48,"median":38.55,"hi90":52.89},"GRN":{"lo90":1.81,"median":10.97,"hi90":22.28}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"298","name":"Nanaimo-Lantzville","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"George Anderson","share":51.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.7,"CON":39.5,"GRN":8.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":49.75,"CON":34.89,"GRN":8.65,"ONEBC":3.66,"CENTRE":3.05},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"George Anderson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.6472,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.6472,"CON":0.3522,"GRN":0.0006},"point":{"NDP":47.96,"CON":42.14,"GRN":8.28,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":1.62},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":33.49,"median":47.66,"hi90":61.79},"CON":{"lo90":28.1,"median":42.15,"hi90":55.96},"GRN":{"lo90":0.74,"median":7.8,"hi90":17.95},"OTH":{"lo90":0.08,"median":1.25,"hi90":5.49}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"299","name":"Nechako Lakes","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"John Rustad","share":67.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":67.4,"NDP":27.2,"GRN":5.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":25.68,"CON":57.65,"GRN":5.26,"ONEBC":6.25,"CENTRE":5.15},"running":["NDP","CON","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"John Rustad","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9791,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0209,"CON":0.9791},"point":{"NDP":32.13,"CON":66.31,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":1.56},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":19.44,"median":31.85,"hi90":44.93},"CON":{"lo90":52.92,"median":66.29,"hi90":78.8},"OTH":{"lo90":0.38,"median":1.23,"hi90":5.41}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"John Rustad (former Conservative leader, MLA since 2005) is not running. Elections BC's web table lists an unaffiliated candidate (Clint Lambert) whom its CSV omits.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: loss of a long-time incumbent in a safe seat."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"300","name":"New Westminster-Coquitlam","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Jennifer Whiteside","share":59.1},"shares_2024":{"NDP":59.1,"CON":29.8,"GRN":11.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":57.25,"CON":26.73,"GRN":10.94,"ONEBC":2.77,"CENTRE":2.31},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jennifer Whiteside","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9135,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9135,"CON":0.0817,"GRN":0.0048},"point":{"NDP":50.93,"CON":30.6,"GRN":17.42,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":1.05},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":36.65,"median":50.65,"hi90":63.84},"CON":{"lo90":18.54,"median":30.63,"hi90":43.78},"GRN":{"lo90":7.24,"median":17.13,"hi90":27.85},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.76,"hi90":4.41}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"301","name":"North Coast-Haida Gwaii","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Tamara Davidson","share":64.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":64.9,"CON":35.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":62.72,"CON":31.31,"ONEBC":3.25,"CENTRE":2.72},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Tamara Davidson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9268,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9268,"CON":0.0732},"point":{"NDP":61.07,"CON":36.27,"GRN":2.66,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":45.96,"median":60.35,"hi90":74.14},"CON":{"lo90":22.58,"median":36.28,"hi90":50.66},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.25,"hi90":10.35}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"302","name":"North Island","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Anna Kindy","share":47.1},"shares_2024":{"CON":47.1,"NDP":44.9,"GRN":8.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":42.97,"CON":41.15,"GRN":7.9,"ONEBC":4.36,"CENTRE":3.62},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Anna Kindy","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7126,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.2867,"CON":0.7126,"GRN":0.0007},"point":{"NDP":41.35,"CON":49.26,"GRN":7.72,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":1.66},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":26.67,"median":40.99,"hi90":54.85},"CON":{"lo90":35.29,"median":49.43,"hi90":63.49},"GRN":{"lo90":0.71,"median":7.26,"hi90":16.94},"OTH":{"lo90":0.13,"median":1.26,"hi90":5.54}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"303","name":"North Vancouver-Lonsdale","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Bowinn Ma","share":64.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":64.9,"CON":35.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":62.68,"CON":31.35,"ONEBC":3.26,"CENTRE":2.72},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Bowinn Ma","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.905,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.905,"CON":0.0949,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":59.5,"CON":38.17,"GRN":2.33,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":45.29,"median":59.05,"hi90":72.36},"CON":{"lo90":24.94,"median":38.24,"hi90":51.65},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.95,"hi90":8.39}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"304","name":"North Vancouver-Seymour","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Susie Chant","share":52.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":52.8,"CON":35.8,"IND":5.8,"GRN":5.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":51.79,"CON":34.02,"GRN":5.85,"ONEBC":3.56,"CENTRE":4.78},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Susie Chant","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7626,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7626,"CON":0.2362,"GRN":0.001,"CENTRE":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":46.22,"CON":35.79,"GRN":10.34,"ONEBC":3.4,"CENTRE":4.26,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.2,"median":45.8,"hi90":59.63},"CON":{"lo90":22.56,"median":35.78,"hi90":49.25},"GRN":{"lo90":2.28,"median":10.11,"hi90":19.2},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.06,"hi90":8.93},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.95,"hi90":10.39}},"baseline_moves":["Mitchell Baker (independent 2024, 5.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_moved","note":"Lynne Block (Conservative MLA for West Vancouver-Capilano) is the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: a sitting MLA as challenger."}]},{"id":"305","name":"Oak Bay-Gordon Head","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Diana Gibson","share":49.1},"shares_2024":{"NDP":49.1,"CON":28.9,"GRN":22.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":47.48,"CON":25.78,"GRN":21.83,"ONEBC":2.68,"CENTRE":2.23},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Diana Gibson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8229,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8229,"CON":0.1575,"GRN":0.0196},"point":{"NDP":46.56,"CON":31.53,"GRN":18.97,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":2.94,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":31.35,"median":46.4,"hi90":61.12},"CON":{"lo90":17.92,"median":31.55,"hi90":46.26},"GRN":{"lo90":6.33,"median":18.49,"hi90":31.89},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.56,"hi90":8.73}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"notable_candidate","note":"Andrew Weaver (Green leader 2015-2020 and MLA for Oak Bay-Gordon Head 2013-2020) runs for CentreBC.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"High: a former MLA with a personal following could take far more than CentreBC's provincial share."}]},{"id":"306","name":"Peace River North","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Jordan Kealy","share":74.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":74.4,"IND":20.1,"NDP":5.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":5.12,"CON":53.6,"ONEBC":5.93,"CENTRE":4.88,"OTH":30.48},"running":["CON","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jordan Kealy","party_at_dissolution":"IND","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7855,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"CON":0.7855,"OTH":0.2145},"point":{"NDP":0.0,"CON":67.26,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":32.74},"share":{"CON":{"lo90":23.8,"median":67.28,"hi90":87.45},"OTH":{"lo90":12.55,"median":32.72,"hi90":76.2}},"baseline_moves":["Jordan Kealy (Conservative Party 2024, 74.4%) runs as an independent: 29.0 points carried forward (retention 0.39), held out of the swing","Dan Davies (independent 2024, 20.1%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"independent_incumbent","note":"Jordan Kealy (elected Conservative 2024 with 74.4%) left the caucus in March 2025 and runs as an independent. The NDP has no candidate (incomplete paperwork). Two-way race: Kealy v. Conservative Curtis Whitford.","v1":"v1.1: Kealy's 2024 share (74.4%, as a Conservative) is carried forward at the median retention of former party MLAs who ran as independents (0.39, so 29.0 points; log-normal spread, 90% range about 11-70 points), held out of the swing; the Conservative label keeps the rest. The NDP's share (no candidate) moves in proportion to the candidates who run.","why_it_may_matter":"High. An incumbent independent can win: Perry Trimper (NL 2021) kept more than his party share; most former party MLAs keep 15-50%."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"307","name":"Peace River South","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Larry Neufeld","share":69.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":69.8,"IND":24.6,"NDP":5.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":11.41,"CON":72.67,"ONEBC":8.01,"CENTRE":6.59,"OTH":1.32},"running":["NDP","CON","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Larry Neufeld","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9992,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0008,"CON":0.9992},"point":{"NDP":13.63,"CON":83.77,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.6},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":5.05,"median":13.58,"hi90":24.78},"CON":{"lo90":72.05,"median":83.63,"hi90":92.79},"OTH":{"lo90":0.3,"median":2.23,"hi90":7.1}},"baseline_moves":["Mike Bernier (independent 2024, 24.6%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Mike Bernier (ex-BC United MLA, CentreBC leader July-Sept 2026) took 24.6% as an independent in 2024; not running. His vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"308","name":"Penticton-Summerland","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Amelia Boultbee","share":41.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":41.4,"NDP":40.2,"IND":9.7,"GRN":5.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":39.2,"CON":46.33,"GRN":5.43,"ONEBC":4.94,"CENTRE":4.09},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Amelia Boultbee","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7702,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.2285,"CON":0.7702,"GRN":0.0012,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":36.29,"CON":47.48,"GRN":11.75,"ONEBC":4.47,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":22.39,"median":36.08,"hi90":50.62},"CON":{"lo90":32.54,"median":47.55,"hi90":62.21},"GRN":{"lo90":2.89,"median":11.59,"hi90":21.78},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.01,"hi90":11.22}},"baseline_moves":["Tracy St Claire (independent 2024) runs again as CON","Roger Harrington (independent 2024, 2.9%) not running: transferred","Anna Paddon (independent 2024, 0.5%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Amelia Boultbee (elected Conservative 2024) left the caucus in Oct 2025 and joined the NDP in July 2026; not running. OneBC runs Warren Hamm (former Conservative leadership candidate).","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: no incumbent; a OneBC candidate with a profile could split the Conservative vote."}]},{"id":"309","name":"Port Coquitlam","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Mike Farnworth","share":53.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":53.9,"CON":38.8,"GRN":6.4,"OTH":0.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":51.83,"CON":34.31,"GRN":6.33,"ONEBC":3.59,"CENTRE":2.99,"OTH":0.95},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Mike Farnworth","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.6903,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.6903,"CON":0.3084,"GRN":0.0013},"point":{"NDP":46.97,"CON":39.81,"GRN":11.23,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":33.29,"median":46.76,"hi90":60.19},"CON":{"lo90":26.53,"median":39.9,"hi90":53.32},"GRN":{"lo90":2.92,"median":11.01,"hi90":20.22},"OTH":{"lo90":0.07,"median":1.7,"hi90":5.68}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"310","name":"Port Moody-Burquitlam","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Rick Glumac","share":52.1},"shares_2024":{"NDP":52.1,"CON":40.5,"GRN":7.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":50.03,"CON":35.74,"GRN":7.36,"ONEBC":3.75,"CENTRE":3.12},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Rick Glumac","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.6092,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.6092,"CON":0.3889,"GRN":0.0019},"point":{"NDP":44.51,"CON":40.4,"GRN":12.39,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":2.7,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":30.38,"median":44.37,"hi90":58.02},"CON":{"lo90":26.74,"median":40.41,"hi90":54.08},"GRN":{"lo90":3.64,"median":12.08,"hi90":21.54},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.39,"hi90":7.95}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"311","name":"Powell River-Sunshine Coast","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Randene Neill","share":49.6},"shares_2024":{"NDP":49.6,"CON":35.7,"GRN":13.5,"IND":1.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":48.07,"CON":32.29,"GRN":13.44,"ONEBC":3.38,"CENTRE":2.82},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Randene Neill","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.6455,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.6455,"CON":0.3389,"GRN":0.0156},"point":{"NDP":42.44,"CON":36.77,"GRN":20.79,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":28.6,"median":42.29,"hi90":55.96},"CON":{"lo90":23.64,"median":36.89,"hi90":50.43},"GRN":{"lo90":10.24,"median":20.68,"hi90":32.17}},"baseline_moves":["Greg Reid (independent 2024, 1.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"312","name":"Prince George-Mackenzie","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Kiel Giddens","share":60.9},"shares_2024":{"CON":60.9,"NDP":28.2,"GRN":8.5,"IND":2.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":27.31,"CON":53.59,"GRN":8.53,"ONEBC":5.79,"CENTRE":4.78},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Kiel Giddens","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9772,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.02,"CON":0.9772,"GRN":0.0028},"point":{"NDP":25.15,"CON":58.24,"GRN":16.61,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":12.52,"median":24.84,"hi90":38.11},"CON":{"lo90":43.78,"median":58.32,"hi90":72.43},"GRN":{"lo90":6.89,"median":16.39,"hi90":27.23}},"baseline_moves":["Rachael Weber (independent 2024, 2.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"313","name":"Prince George-North Cariboo","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Sheldon Clare","share":56.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":56.8,"IND":21.8,"NDP":17.0,"GRN":4.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":21.45,"CON":60.66,"GRN":5.85,"ONEBC":6.61,"CENTRE":5.44},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Sheldon Clare","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9949,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0046,"CON":0.9949,"GRN":0.0005},"point":{"NDP":20.34,"CON":67.13,"GRN":12.53,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":8.41,"median":19.89,"hi90":32.77},"CON":{"lo90":53.16,"median":67.27,"hi90":80.53},"GRN":{"lo90":3.54,"median":12.48,"hi90":22.66}},"baseline_moves":["Coralee Oakes (independent 2024, 21.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Coralee Oakes (ex-BC United MLA) took 21.8% as an independent in 2024; not running. Her vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"314","name":"Prince George-Valemount","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Rosalyn Bird","share":55.2},"shares_2024":{"CON":55.2,"NDP":34.9,"GRN":9.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":33.21,"CON":47.72,"GRN":9.73,"ONEBC":5.12,"CENTRE":4.23},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Rosalyn Bird","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8818,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.108,"CON":0.8818,"GRN":0.01,"ONEBC":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":29.71,"CON":47.44,"GRN":18.36,"ONEBC":4.49,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":16.31,"median":29.34,"hi90":42.78},"CON":{"lo90":33.21,"median":47.27,"hi90":61.74},"GRN":{"lo90":8.34,"median":18.26,"hi90":29.43},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.1,"hi90":11.18}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Rosalyn Bird: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."}]},{"id":"315","name":"Richmond-Bridgeport","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Teresa Wat","share":58.2},"shares_2024":{"CON":58.2,"NDP":34.8,"GRN":3.2,"IND":3.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":34.02,"CON":52.51,"GRN":3.17,"ONEBC":5.65,"CENTRE":4.67},"running":["NDP","CON"],"incumbent":{"name":"Teresa Wat","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9544,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0456,"CON":0.9544},"point":{"NDP":36.47,"CON":63.53,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":24.1,"median":36.4,"hi90":49.55},"CON":{"lo90":50.45,"median":63.6,"hi90":75.9}},"baseline_moves":["Glynnis Hoi Sum Chan (independent 2024, 3.0%) not running: transferred","Charlie Smith (independent 2024, 0.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Teresa Wat: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"316","name":"Richmond Centre","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Hon Chan","share":52.0},"shares_2024":{"CON":52.0,"NDP":36.8,"IND":3.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":37.61,"CON":51.04,"GRN":0.79,"ONEBC":5.47,"CENTRE":4.53,"OTH":0.56},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Hon Chan","party_at_dissolution":"IND","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9459,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0541,"CON":0.9459},"point":{"NDP":34.85,"CON":59.82,"GRN":3.59,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":1.74},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":22.01,"median":34.6,"hi90":47.29},"CON":{"lo90":45.9,"median":59.72,"hi90":72.51},"GRN":{"lo90":0.22,"median":3.21,"hi90":10.11},"OTH":{"lo90":0.11,"median":1.44,"hi90":5.33}},"baseline_moves":["Wendy Yuan (independent 2024, 6.3%) not running: transferred","Dickens Cheung (independent 2024, 3.4%) not running: transferred","Sunny Ho (independent 2024, 1.5%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Hon Chan (elected Conservative 2024, removed from caucus March 2026) is not on the ballot.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: loss of incumbent."}]},{"id":"317","name":"Richmond-Queensborough","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Steve Kooner","share":50.9},"shares_2024":{"CON":50.9,"NDP":44.1,"IND":1.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":43.32,"CON":47.13,"GRN":0.37,"ONEBC":5.02,"CENTRE":4.16},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Steve Kooner","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8561,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1439,"CON":0.8561},"point":{"NDP":40.68,"CON":56.33,"GRN":2.99,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":27.38,"median":40.5,"hi90":53.71},"CON":{"lo90":42.65,"median":56.26,"hi90":69.49},"GRN":{"lo90":0.14,"median":2.54,"hi90":9.17}},"baseline_moves":["Cindy Wu (independent 2024, 3.7%) not running: transferred","Errol E. Povah (independent 2024, 1.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"318","name":"Richmond-Steveston","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Kelly Greene","share":44.3},"shares_2024":{"NDP":44.3,"CON":42.2,"IND":10.1,"GRN":3.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.11,"CON":40.99,"GRN":3.4,"ONEBC":4.34,"CENTRE":6.79,"OTH":0.37},"running":["NDP","CON","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Kelly Greene","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6299,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.37,"CON":0.6299,"CENTRE":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":43.47,"CON":47.84,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":6.98,"OTH":1.71},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":29.91,"median":43.28,"hi90":56.37},"CON":{"lo90":34.45,"median":47.82,"hi90":61.12},"CENTRE":{"lo90":1.26,"median":6.69,"hi90":13.75},"OTH":{"lo90":0.25,"median":1.41,"hi90":5.22}},"baseline_moves":["Jackie Lee (independent 2024, 10.1%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Kelly Greene (NDP) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate: loss of incumbent (The Writ docks a party 3-4 points when its incumbent leaves)."},{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Jackie Lee took 10.1% as an independent in 2024; not running. Her vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"319","name":"Saanich North and the Islands","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"GRN","name":"Rob Botterell","share":36.2},"shares_2024":{"GRN":36.2,"NDP":32.2,"CON":29.8,"IND":1.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":31.29,"CON":27.04,"GRN":35.89,"ONEBC":2.84,"CENTRE":2.94},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Rob Botterell","party_at_dissolution":"GRN","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.4362,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.267,"CON":0.4362,"GRN":0.2968},"point":{"NDP":30.77,"CON":33.95,"GRN":31.26,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":4.03,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":16.15,"median":30.48,"hi90":46.06},"CON":{"lo90":19.75,"median":34.25,"hi90":50.16},"GRN":{"lo90":14.7,"median":30.63,"hi90":46.32},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.73,"hi90":10.32}},"baseline_moves":["Amy Haysom (independent 2024, 1.9%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"green_seat","note":"One of the Greens' two 2024 seats. Rob Botterell (Green MLA) is not running; Green leader Emily Lowan is the candidate. CentreBC also runs.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"High. The Green hold depends on the candidate and on NDP-Green tactical voting, neither of which is modelled; the riding is close to a three-way contest."}]},{"id":"320","name":"Saanich South","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Lana Popham","share":49.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":49.8,"CON":32.4,"GRN":17.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":48.01,"CON":28.85,"GRN":17.63,"ONEBC":3.01,"CENTRE":2.51},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Lana Popham","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7629,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7629,"CON":0.2313,"GRN":0.0058},"point":{"NDP":47.78,"CON":36.45,"GRN":15.77,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":33.0,"median":47.66,"hi90":62.12},"CON":{"lo90":22.63,"median":36.63,"hi90":51.31},"GRN":{"lo90":4.4,"median":15.25,"hi90":27.64}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Lana Popham (NDP) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate: loss of incumbent (The Writ docks a party 3-4 points when its incumbent leaves)."}]},{"id":"321","name":"Salmon Arm-Shuswap","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"David L. Williams","share":52.1},"shares_2024":{"CON":52.1,"NDP":30.4,"IND":9.2,"GRN":7.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":30.66,"CON":48.99,"GRN":7.5,"ONEBC":5.27,"CENTRE":7.57},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"David Williams","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9178,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0764,"CON":0.9178,"GRN":0.0054,"ONEBC":0.0002,"CENTRE":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":26.56,"CON":47.78,"GRN":14.58,"ONEBC":4.7,"CENTRE":6.38,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":12.8,"median":26.19,"hi90":39.75},"CON":{"lo90":33.03,"median":47.86,"hi90":62.76},"GRN":{"lo90":5.0,"median":14.34,"hi90":25.08},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.33,"hi90":11.73},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":5.99,"hi90":13.87}},"baseline_moves":["Greg McCune (independent 2024, 9.2%) not running: transferred","Sherry Roy (independent 2024, 1.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"322","name":"Skeena","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Claire Rattée","share":51.2},"shares_2024":{"CON":51.2,"NDP":44.4,"GRN":3.3,"OTH":1.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":42.41,"CON":44.6,"GRN":3.29,"ONEBC":4.75,"CENTRE":3.93,"OTH":1.03},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Claire Rattée","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6669,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3319,"CON":0.6669,"GRN":0.0011,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":40.32,"CON":46.91,"GRN":8.38,"ONEBC":4.4,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":25.55,"median":40.12,"hi90":54.19},"CON":{"lo90":32.03,"median":46.87,"hi90":61.65},"GRN":{"lo90":0.81,"median":8.07,"hi90":17.61},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.98,"hi90":11.46}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Claire Rattée: left or was removed from the Conservative caucus in September 2026 and returned on 2026-09-21; Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low."}]},{"id":"323","name":"Surrey City Centre","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Amna Shah","share":46.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":46.7,"CON":45.1,"GRN":6.1,"IND":1.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.9,"CON":39.96,"GRN":6.02,"ONEBC":4.23,"CENTRE":3.87,"OTH":1.02},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Amna Shah","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5498,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5498,"CON":0.4502},"point":{"NDP":46.41,"CON":44.37,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":4.37,"CENTRE":4.85,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.63,"median":46.18,"hi90":59.39},"CON":{"lo90":30.71,"median":44.28,"hi90":57.95},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.34,"median":4.07,"hi90":10.31},"CENTRE":{"lo90":1.11,"median":4.58,"hi90":10.43}},"baseline_moves":["Saeed Naguib (independent 2024, 1.1%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"324","name":"Surrey-Cloverdale","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Elenore Sturko","share":48.3},"shares_2024":{"CON":48.3,"NDP":45.6,"GRN":5.4,"OTH":0.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":43.54,"CON":42.21,"GRN":5.34,"ONEBC":4.48,"CENTRE":3.71,"OTH":0.72},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Elenore Sturko","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":true,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6602,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3386,"CON":0.6602,"GRN":0.001,"ONEBC":0.0001,"CENTRE":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":38.5,"CON":44.33,"GRN":9.62,"ONEBC":4.27,"CENTRE":3.27,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":24.46,"median":38.46,"hi90":52.07},"CON":{"lo90":30.52,"median":44.25,"hi90":58.29},"GRN":{"lo90":1.83,"median":9.33,"hi90":18.25},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.92,"hi90":10.34},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.01,"hi90":8.77}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_moved","note":"Elenore Sturko (MLA, elected Conservative 2024) is running in Surrey South instead; open seat.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: loss of incumbent."}]},{"id":"325","name":"Surrey-Fleetwood","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Jagrup Brar","share":48.6},"shares_2024":{"NDP":48.6,"CON":44.9,"GRN":6.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":46.57,"CON":39.41,"GRN":6.4,"ONEBC":4.16,"CENTRE":3.46},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jagrup Brar","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5018,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4966,"CON":0.5018,"GRN":0.0015,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":40.97,"CON":41.05,"GRN":11.03,"ONEBC":3.94,"CENTRE":3.01,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":26.9,"median":40.8,"hi90":54.28},"CON":{"lo90":27.44,"median":40.99,"hi90":54.6},"GRN":{"lo90":2.7,"median":10.71,"hi90":20.23},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.6,"hi90":9.84},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.79,"hi90":8.34}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"326","name":"Surrey-Guildford","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Garry Begg","share":46.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":46.9,"CON":46.8,"GRN":4.3,"IND":1.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":45.34,"CON":42.01,"GRN":4.41,"ONEBC":4.45,"CENTRE":3.69,"OTH":0.1},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Garry Begg","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6994,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3,"CON":0.6994,"GRN":0.0006},"point":{"NDP":41.35,"CON":48.81,"GRN":8.6,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":1.24},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":27.32,"median":41.06,"hi90":54.59},"CON":{"lo90":35.11,"median":48.83,"hi90":62.28},"GRN":{"lo90":1.48,"median":8.35,"hi90":16.5},"OTH":{"lo90":0.05,"median":0.94,"hi90":4.56}},"baseline_moves":["Kabir Qurban (independent 2024, 1.9%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"327","name":"Surrey-Newton","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Jessie Sunner","share":51.2},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.2,"CON":43.0,"OTH":2.4,"IND":2.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":49.68,"CON":39.23,"ONEBC":4.14,"CENTRE":4.57,"OTH":2.38},"running":["NDP","CON","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jessie Sunner","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5243,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5243,"CON":0.4757},"point":{"NDP":48.1,"CON":47.36,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":4.53,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":34.27,"median":48.1,"hi90":61.98},"CON":{"lo90":33.02,"median":47.19,"hi90":61.2},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.24,"median":4.29,"hi90":10.52}},"baseline_moves":["Japreet Lehal (independent 2024, 2.2%) not running: transferred","Joginder Singh Randhawa (independent 2024, 1.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"328","name":"Surrey North","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Mandeep Dhaliwal","share":50.7},"shares_2024":{"CON":50.7,"NDP":43.3,"GRN":4.2,"OTH":1.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":41.43,"CON":44.43,"GRN":4.2,"ONEBC":4.73,"CENTRE":4.16,"OTH":1.05},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Mandeep Dhaliwal","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7686,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.231,"CON":0.7686,"GRN":0.0004},"point":{"NDP":36.06,"CON":46.05,"GRN":7.87,"ONEBC":4.46,"CENTRE":3.63,"OTH":1.93},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":22.65,"median":35.74,"hi90":49.01},"CON":{"lo90":32.1,"median":46.08,"hi90":59.53},"GRN":{"lo90":0.73,"median":7.5,"hi90":15.81},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.14,"hi90":10.37},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.36,"hi90":9.21},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.65,"hi90":5.86}},"baseline_moves":["Hobby Nijjar (independent 2024, 0.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"329","name":"Surrey-Panorama","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Bryan Tepper","share":49.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":49.6,"NDP":48.1,"OTH":2.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":45.97,"CON":43.33,"ONEBC":4.6,"CENTRE":3.81,"OTH":2.28},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Bryan Tepper","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7229,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.2771,"CON":0.7229},"point":{"NDP":42.96,"CON":51.5,"GRN":2.03,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":3.51,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":28.64,"median":42.52,"hi90":56.19},"CON":{"lo90":37.5,"median":51.47,"hi90":65.09},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.58,"hi90":8.27},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.16,"hi90":9.16}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"330","name":"Surrey-Serpentine River","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Linda Hepner","share":49.7},"shares_2024":{"CON":49.7,"NDP":47.5,"IND":2.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":45.85,"CON":44.51,"ONEBC":4.73,"CENTRE":4.81,"OTH":0.1},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Linda Hepner","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6455,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3544,"CON":0.6455,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":42.18,"CON":47.53,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":4.61,"CENTRE":4.57,"OTH":1.11},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":28.35,"median":41.93,"hi90":55.29},"CON":{"lo90":33.51,"median":47.27,"hi90":60.93},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.08,"median":4.24,"hi90":10.77},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.27,"median":4.35,"hi90":10.71},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.83,"hi90":4.57}},"baseline_moves":["Jim McMurtry (independent 2024, 2.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Linda Hepner (elected Conservative 2024) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"331","name":"Surrey South","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Brent Chapman","share":58.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":58.8,"NDP":41.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":39.13,"CON":50.9,"ONEBC":5.45,"CENTRE":4.51},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Brent Chapman","party_at_dissolution":"ONEBC","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9313,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0686,"CON":0.9313,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":34.94,"CON":57.89,"GRN":1.95,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":4.01,"OTH":1.21},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":21.42,"median":34.44,"hi90":47.57},"CON":{"lo90":43.59,"median":57.83,"hi90":70.58},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.55,"hi90":7.92},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.73,"hi90":9.92},"OTH":{"lo90":0.08,"median":0.9,"hi90":4.6}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"new_party_leader","note":"Elenore Sturko (CentreBC leader; MLA for Surrey-Cloverdale, elected Conservative 2024) runs here. Brent Chapman (elected Conservative 2024 with 58.8%, crossed to OneBC on 2026-09-22) is not on the ballot.","v1":"Not adjusted in the default; seeded in the sensitivity run.","why_it_may_matter":"High. A party leader and sitting MLA could take far more than CentreBC's provincial share. The 'seeded' sensitivity adds 7.5 points."}]},{"id":"332","name":"Surrey-White Rock","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Trevor Halford","share":52.3},"shares_2024":{"CON":52.3,"NDP":45.3,"OTH":2.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":43.2,"CON":45.55,"ONEBC":4.85,"CENTRE":4.02,"OTH":2.38},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Trevor Halford","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7555,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.2441,"CON":0.7555,"GRN":0.0001,"ONEBC":0.0003},"point":{"NDP":38.43,"CON":48.13,"GRN":1.96,"ONEBC":4.66,"CENTRE":3.58,"OTH":3.24},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":24.26,"median":38.02,"hi90":51.41},"CON":{"lo90":34.27,"median":48.15,"hi90":61.34},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.54,"hi90":7.78},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.34,"hi90":10.73},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.24,"hi90":9.19},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.92,"hi90":7.6}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Trevor Halford: left or was removed from the Conservative caucus in September 2026 and returned on 2026-09-21; Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low."}]},{"id":"333","name":"Vancouver-Fraserview","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"George Chow","share":57.2},"shares_2024":{"NDP":57.2,"CON":36.6,"GRN":6.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":55.12,"CON":32.51,"GRN":6.14,"ONEBC":3.39,"CENTRE":2.83},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"George Chow","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7929,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7929,"CON":0.2064,"GRN":0.0007},"point":{"NDP":50.58,"CON":38.35,"GRN":11.08,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":36.48,"median":50.49,"hi90":63.75},"CON":{"lo90":25.39,"median":38.34,"hi90":52.15},"GRN":{"lo90":2.91,"median":10.83,"hi90":19.91}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"George Chow (NDP) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate: loss of incumbent (The Writ docks a party 3-4 points when its incumbent leaves)."}]},{"id":"334","name":"Vancouver-Hastings","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Niki Sharma","share":64.1},"shares_2024":{"NDP":64.1,"CON":24.3,"GRN":10.9,"IND":0.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":62.5,"CON":22.26,"GRN":10.82,"ONEBC":2.28,"CENTRE":2.13,"OTH":0.02},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Niki Sharma","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9695,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9695,"CON":0.0253,"GRN":0.0052},"point":{"NDP":55.24,"CON":24.84,"GRN":17.09,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":1.78,"OTH":1.06},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":40.92,"median":54.83,"hi90":67.84},"CON":{"lo90":13.34,"median":24.86,"hi90":37.71},"GRN":{"lo90":7.07,"median":16.78,"hi90":27.4},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.44,"hi90":6.22},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.75,"hi90":4.36}},"baseline_moves":["Zsolt Kiss (independent 2024, 0.7%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"335","name":"Vancouver-Kensington","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Mable Elmore","share":60.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":60.9,"CON":31.5,"GRN":7.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":58.92,"CON":28.2,"GRN":7.52,"ONEBC":2.92,"CENTRE":2.44},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Mable Elmore","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9064,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9064,"CON":0.0928,"GRN":0.0008},"point":{"NDP":53.84,"CON":33.19,"GRN":12.97,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":39.93,"median":53.62,"hi90":67.04},"CON":{"lo90":20.91,"median":33.24,"hi90":47.08},"GRN":{"lo90":4.24,"median":12.73,"hi90":22.4}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"336","name":"Vancouver-Langara","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Sunita Dhir","share":48.4},"shares_2024":{"NDP":48.4,"CON":46.0,"GRN":5.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":46.38,"CON":40.36,"GRN":5.45,"ONEBC":4.27,"CENTRE":3.54},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Sunita Dhir","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6206,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3788,"CON":0.6206,"GRN":0.0005,"CENTRE":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":41.37,"CON":45.81,"GRN":9.72,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":3.1,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":27.37,"median":41.24,"hi90":54.95},"CON":{"lo90":31.9,"median":45.78,"hi90":59.75},"GRN":{"lo90":1.97,"median":9.46,"hi90":18.45},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.8,"hi90":8.29}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"337","name":"Vancouver-Little Mountain","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Christine Boyle","share":62.1},"shares_2024":{"NDP":62.1,"CON":30.6,"GRN":7.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":60.14,"CON":27.43,"GRN":7.22,"ONEBC":2.84,"CENTRE":2.37},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Christine Boyle","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9285,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9285,"CON":0.0704,"GRN":0.0011},"point":{"NDP":55.07,"CON":32.36,"GRN":12.57,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":41.1,"median":54.91,"hi90":68.24},"CON":{"lo90":19.99,"median":32.46,"hi90":45.82},"GRN":{"lo90":4.04,"median":12.29,"hi90":21.91}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"338","name":"Vancouver-Point Grey","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"David Eby","share":56.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":56.8,"CON":34.5,"GRN":8.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":54.79,"CON":30.71,"GRN":8.64,"ONEBC":3.2,"CENTRE":2.67},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"David Eby","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.83,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.83,"CON":0.1683,"GRN":0.0017},"point":{"NDP":48.82,"CON":34.7,"GRN":14.19,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":2.29,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":34.36,"median":48.7,"hi90":62.58},"CON":{"lo90":21.83,"median":34.76,"hi90":47.99},"GRN":{"lo90":4.72,"median":13.92,"hi90":24.03},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.96,"hi90":7.09}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"leader_seat","note":"NDP leader David Eby.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low (safe seats)."}]},{"id":"339","name":"Vancouver-Quilchena","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Dallas Brodie","share":51.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":51.6,"NDP":38.9,"GRN":7.8,"IND":1.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":37.37,"CON":45.46,"GRN":7.76,"ONEBC":4.85,"CENTRE":4.55},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Dallas Brodie","party_at_dissolution":"ONEBC","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8508,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1468,"CON":0.8508,"GRN":0.0023,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":32.01,"CON":46.69,"GRN":12.81,"ONEBC":4.53,"CENTRE":3.96,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":18.82,"median":31.76,"hi90":45.22},"CON":{"lo90":32.46,"median":46.64,"hi90":60.81},"GRN":{"lo90":4.11,"median":12.49,"hi90":22.18},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.17,"hi90":10.8},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.7,"hi90":9.88}},"baseline_moves":["Caroline Ying-Mei Wang (independent 2024, 1.7%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"new_party_leader","note":"Dallas Brodie (OneBC interim leader; elected Conservative 2024 with 51.6%) runs again for OneBC against a new Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in the default; seeded in the sensitivity run.","why_it_may_matter":"High. Splits the right-of-centre vote in a seat the Conservatives won narrowly in 2024; a sitting MLA's personal vote is not in the model. The 'seeded' sensitivity adds 15 points."}]},{"id":"340","name":"Vancouver-Renfrew","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Adrian Dix","share":63.2},"shares_2024":{"NDP":63.2,"CON":30.7,"GRN":6.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":61.22,"CON":27.49,"GRN":6.07,"ONEBC":2.84,"CENTRE":2.38},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Adrian Dix","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9344,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9344,"CON":0.0648,"GRN":0.0008},"point":{"NDP":55.63,"CON":31.59,"GRN":10.72,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":2.06,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":41.13,"median":55.37,"hi90":68.9},"CON":{"lo90":18.6,"median":31.61,"hi90":45.06},"GRN":{"lo90":2.41,"median":10.48,"hi90":19.75},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.73,"hi90":6.75}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"341","name":"Vancouver-South Granville","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Brenda Bailey","share":64.3},"shares_2024":{"NDP":64.3,"CON":25.0,"GRN":10.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":62.52,"CON":22.57,"GRN":10.66,"ONEBC":2.31,"CENTRE":1.94},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Brenda Bailey","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9746,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9746,"CON":0.0211,"GRN":0.0042,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":55.59,"CON":23.57,"GRN":17.03,"ONEBC":2.18,"CENTRE":1.63,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":40.74,"median":55.29,"hi90":68.74},"CON":{"lo90":11.62,"median":23.44,"hi90":36.35},"GRN":{"lo90":7.08,"median":16.85,"hi90":27.53},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.8,"hi90":6.99},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.31,"hi90":6.02}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Brenda Bailey (NDP) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate: loss of incumbent (The Writ docks a party 3-4 points when its incumbent leaves)."}]},{"id":"342","name":"Vancouver-Strathcona","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Joan Phillip","share":68.2},"shares_2024":{"NDP":68.2,"CON":17.1,"GRN":13.1,"OTH":1.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":66.7,"CON":15.72,"GRN":12.99,"ONEBC":1.59,"CENTRE":1.34,"OTH":1.67},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Vacant","party_at_dissolution":null,"not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":"vacant"},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9857,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9857,"CON":0.0076,"GRN":0.0067},"point":{"NDP":59.18,"CON":18.08,"GRN":20.19,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.55},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":44.77,"median":58.87,"hi90":71.58},"CON":{"lo90":7.94,"median":18.21,"hi90":30.0},"GRN":{"lo90":9.72,"median":19.94,"hi90":31.46},"OTH":{"lo90":0.02,"median":2.29,"hi90":6.58}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"vacant","note":"Vacant: Joan Phillip (NDP) died 2026-08-28; no by-election. NDP candidate Amanda Burrows.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low (safe NDP seat)."}]},{"id":"343","name":"Vancouver-West End","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Spencer Chandra Herbert","share":63.0},"shares_2024":{"NDP":63.0,"CON":27.2,"GRN":9.1,"IND":0.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":61.31,"CON":24.91,"GRN":9.06,"ONEBC":2.57,"CENTRE":2.15},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Spencer Chandra Herbert","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9511,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9511,"CON":0.047,"GRN":0.0019},"point":{"NDP":55.7,"CON":29.22,"GRN":15.08,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":41.42,"median":55.53,"hi90":68.86},"CON":{"lo90":17.44,"median":29.35,"hi90":42.41},"GRN":{"lo90":5.81,"median":14.85,"hi90":24.86}},"baseline_moves":["Carl Turnbull (independent 2024, 0.7%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"344","name":"Vancouver-Yaletown","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Terry Yung","share":49.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":49.8,"CON":43.4,"GRN":6.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":47.72,"CON":38.11,"GRN":6.81,"ONEBC":4.02,"CENTRE":3.34},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Terry Yung","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5306,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4686,"CON":0.5306,"GRN":0.0008},"point":{"NDP":42.41,"CON":43.08,"GRN":11.61,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":2.9,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":28.75,"median":42.17,"hi90":55.61},"CON":{"lo90":29.5,"median":43.19,"hi90":56.9},"GRN":{"lo90":3.24,"median":11.32,"hi90":20.62},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.57,"hi90":8.1}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"345","name":"Vernon-Lumby","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Harwinder Sandhu","share":42.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":42.7,"CON":41.0,"IND":15.4,"OTH":1.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":40.63,"CON":48.87,"ONEBC":5.22,"CENTRE":4.32,"OTH":0.95},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Harwinder Sandhu","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.799,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.2004,"CON":0.799,"GRN":0.0003,"ONEBC":0.0003},"point":{"NDP":39.6,"CON":52.57,"GRN":2.87,"ONEBC":4.96,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":24.52,"median":39.02,"hi90":53.17},"CON":{"lo90":37.99,"median":52.4,"hi90":67.09},"GRN":{"lo90":0.07,"median":2.52,"hi90":10.54},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.56,"hi90":11.98}},"baseline_moves":["Kevin Acton (independent 2024) runs again as CON"],"notes":[{"type":"returning_candidate","note":"Kevin Acton took 15.4% as an independent in 2024 and is the 2026 Conservative candidate (assumed the same person); v1 moves his 2024 vote to the Conservatives.","v1":"His 2024 votes are assigned to the Conservatives (rule: a returning candidate keeps their vote).","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: if his 2024 voters do not follow him, the Conservative share is overstated."}]},{"id":"346","name":"Victoria-Beacon Hill","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Grace Lore","share":47.4},"shares_2024":{"NDP":47.4,"GRN":33.5,"CON":19.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":46.11,"CON":17.34,"GRN":33.28,"ONEBC":1.78,"CENTRE":1.49},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Grace Lore","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8438,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8438,"CON":0.0396,"GRN":0.1166},"point":{"NDP":47.35,"CON":23.03,"GRN":29.62,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":31.66,"median":47.16,"hi90":63.16},"CON":{"lo90":10.75,"median":23.3,"hi90":37.63},"GRN":{"lo90":13.35,"median":29.22,"hi90":44.32}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"notable_candidate","note":"The Conservatives dropped their candidate, Joachim Agou, on 2026-10-08 over social-media posts; he stays on the ballot as the Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low (safe NDP seat), but the Conservative share is likely overstated."}]},{"id":"347","name":"Victoria-Swan Lake","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Nina Krieger","share":56.0},"shares_2024":{"NDP":56.0,"GRN":23.2,"CON":20.2,"OTH":0.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":54.59,"CON":18.34,"GRN":23.01,"ONEBC":1.87,"CENTRE":1.58,"OTH":0.61},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Nina Krieger","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9585,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9585,"CON":0.0276,"GRN":0.0139},"point":{"NDP":55.48,"CON":23.94,"GRN":20.58,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":39.91,"median":55.17,"hi90":70.19},"CON":{"lo90":11.6,"median":24.23,"hi90":38.16},"GRN":{"lo90":7.0,"median":20.03,"hi90":33.83}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"348","name":"West Kelowna-Peachland","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Macklin McCall","share":50.9},"shares_2024":{"CON":50.9,"NDP":27.9,"IND":21.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":31.7,"CON":55.74,"GRN":1.57,"ONEBC":6.02,"CENTRE":4.97},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Macklin McCall","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.975,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0248,"CON":0.975,"GRN":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":30.81,"CON":63.62,"GRN":5.57,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":17.59,"median":30.5,"hi90":43.99},"CON":{"lo90":49.5,"median":63.66,"hi90":77.22},"GRN":{"lo90":0.35,"median":5.18,"hi90":13.76}},"baseline_moves":["Stephen Johnston (independent 2024, 21.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Stephen Johnston took 21.2% as an independent in 2024; not running. His vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"349","name":"West Vancouver-Capilano","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Lynne Block","share":46.7},"shares_2024":{"CON":46.7,"NDP":27.1,"IND":20.6,"GRN":5.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":30.87,"CON":51.92,"GRN":7.0,"ONEBC":5.59,"CENTRE":4.62},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Lynne Block","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":true,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9666,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0321,"CON":0.9666,"GRN":0.0012,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":27.46,"CON":55.11,"GRN":12.22,"ONEBC":5.2,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":15.12,"median":27.28,"hi90":39.77},"CON":{"lo90":41.49,"median":55.2,"hi90":68.71},"GRN":{"lo90":3.76,"median":11.92,"hi90":21.69},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.83,"hi90":11.69}},"baseline_moves":["Karin Kirkpatrick (independent 2024, 20.6%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_moved","note":"Lynne Block (elected Conservative 2024) is running in North Vancouver-Seymour instead; open seat. In 2024 Karin Kirkpatrick (ex-BC United, later CentreBC founder) took 20.6% here as an independent; that vote is transferred.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: open seat; where Kirkpatrick's 2024 vote goes is an assumption."}]},{"id":"350","name":"West Vancouver-Sea to Sky","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"GRN","name":"Jeremy Valeriote","share":38.1},"shares_2024":{"GRN":38.1,"CON":35.6,"NDP":26.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":25.2,"CON":31.13,"GRN":37.64,"ONEBC":3.3,"CENTRE":2.73},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jeremy Valeriote","party_at_dissolution":"GRN","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"GRN","prob":0.8884,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0109,"CON":0.1007,"GRN":0.8884},"point":{"NDP":18.73,"CON":30.81,"GRN":48.41,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":2.05,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":7.82,"median":18.39,"hi90":30.47},"CON":{"lo90":18.25,"median":30.88,"hi90":43.94},"GRN":{"lo90":34.65,"median":48.17,"hi90":61.19},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.69,"hi90":6.6}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"green_seat","note":"The Greens' other 2024 seat. Jeremy Valeriote (Green MLA, interim leader 2025) runs again; CentreBC runs Dan Wood.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"High: Green incumbency is not modelled, so v1 probably understates the Green."}]}],"changes":{"from_file":"2026-10-01_mainstreet-research.json","average":{"NDP":0.29,"CON":0.6,"GRN":-0.37,"ONEBC":0.03,"CENTRE":0.01,"OTH":-0.56},"seat_median":{"NDP":-1.0,"CON":1.0,"GRN":-1.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"p_majority":{"NDP":-0.0144,"CON":0.017,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"p_minority":-0.0026,"leader_changes":["283"]},"average_series":{"NDP":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-26",null],["2024-11-02",null],["2024-11-09",null],["2024-11-16",null],["2024-11-23",null],["2024-11-30",null],["2024-12-07",null],["2024-12-14",null],["2024-12-21",null],["2024-12-28",null],["2025-01-04",null],["2025-01-11",null],["2025-01-18",null],["2025-01-25",null],["2025-02-01",45.66],["2025-02-08",45.83],["2025-02-15",45.9],["2025-02-22",45.87],["2025-03-01",45.75],["2025-03-08",45.55],["2025-03-15",45.33],["2025-03-22",45.1],["2025-03-29",44.93],["2025-04-05",44.85],["2025-04-12",44.84],["2025-04-19",44.84],["2025-04-26",44.78],["2025-05-03",44.67],["2025-05-10",44.5],["2025-05-17",44.26],["2025-05-24",43.97],["2025-05-31",43.64],["2025-06-07",43.28],["2025-06-14",42.93],["2025-06-21",42.6],["2025-06-28",42.3],["2025-07-05",42.04],["2025-07-12",41.83],["2025-07-19",41.69],["2025-07-26",41.68],["2025-08-02",41.85],["2025-08-09",42.15],["2025-08-16",42.45],["2025-08-23",42.76],["2025-08-30",43.1],["2025-09-06",43.46],["2025-09-13",43.79],["2025-09-20",44.06],["2025-09-27",44.24],["2025-10-04",44.31],["2025-10-11",44.28],["2025-10-18",44.14],["2025-10-25",43.89],["2025-11-01",43.54],["2025-11-08",43.16],["2025-11-15",42.83],["2025-11-22",42.6],["2025-11-29",42.48],["2025-12-06",42.41],["2025-12-13",42.38],["2025-12-20",42.36],["2025-12-27",42.38],["2026-01-03",42.41],["2026-01-10",42.41],["2026-01-17",42.28],["2026-01-24",41.99],["2026-01-31",41.61],["2026-02-07",41.21],["2026-02-14",40.85],["2026-02-21",40.57],["2026-02-28",40.38],["2026-03-07",40.28],["2026-03-14",40.24],["2026-03-21",40.22],["2026-03-28",40.18],["2026-04-04",40.05],["2026-04-11",39.81],["2026-04-18",39.51],["2026-04-25",39.22],["2026-05-02",39.05],["2026-05-09",39.08],["2026-05-16",39.26],["2026-05-23",39.49],["2026-05-30",39.67],["2026-06-06",39.82],["2026-06-13",39.99],["2026-06-20",40.28],["2026-06-27",40.74],["2026-07-04",41.29],["2026-07-11",41.74],["2026-07-18",41.96],["2026-07-25",41.95],["2026-08-01",41.81],["2026-08-08",41.57],["2026-08-15",41.26],["2026-08-22",40.86],["2026-08-29",40.42],["2026-09-05",40.01],["2026-09-12",39.68],["2026-09-19",39.43],["2026-09-26",39.24],["2026-10-03",39.11]],"CON":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-26",null],["2024-11-02",null],["2024-11-09",null],["2024-11-16",null],["2024-11-23",null],["2024-11-30",null],["2024-12-07",null],["2024-12-14",null],["2024-12-21",null],["2024-12-28",null],["2025-01-04",null],["2025-01-11",null],["2025-01-18",null],["2025-01-25",null],["2025-02-01",41.55],["2025-02-08",41.51],["2025-02-15",41.49],["2025-02-22",41.5],["2025-03-01",41.55],["2025-03-08",41.65],["2025-03-15",41.85],["2025-03-22",42.25],["2025-03-29",42.98],["2025-04-05",43.91],["2025-04-12",44.53],["2025-04-19",44.56],["2025-04-26",44.18],["2025-05-03",43.61],["2025-05-10",43.03],["2025-05-17",42.52],["2025-05-24",42.17],["2025-05-31",42.02],["2025-06-07",42.03],["2025-06-14",42.18],["2025-06-21",42.41],["2025-06-28",42.67],["2025-07-05",42.92],["2025-07-12",43.15],["2025-07-19",43.36],["2025-07-26",43.53],["2025-08-02",43.56],["2025-08-09",43.37],["2025-08-16",43.0],["2025-08-23",42.51],["2025-08-30",41.94],["2025-09-06",41.35],["2025-09-13",40.82],["2025-09-20",40.39],["2025-09-27",40.09],["2025-10-04",39.9],["2025-10-11",39.79],["2025-10-18",39.72],["2025-10-25",39.66],["2025-11-01",39.57],["2025-11-08",39.46],["2025-11-15",39.37],["2025-11-22",39.34],["2025-11-29",39.37],["2025-12-06",39.45],["2025-12-13",39.54],["2025-12-20",39.62],["2025-12-27",39.65],["2026-01-03",39.6],["2026-01-10",39.48],["2026-01-17",39.41],["2026-01-24",39.49],["2026-01-31",39.73],["2026-02-07",40.03],["2026-02-14",40.33],["2026-02-21",40.57],["2026-02-28",40.7],["2026-03-07",40.69],["2026-03-14",40.53],["2026-03-21",40.22],["2026-03-28",39.84],["2026-04-04",39.52],["2026-04-11",39.4],["2026-04-18",39.6],["2026-04-25",40.16],["2026-05-02",41.06],["2026-05-09",42.14],["2026-05-16",43.12],["2026-05-23",43.8],["2026-05-30",44.16],["2026-06-06",44.27],["2026-06-13",44.17],["2026-06-20",43.84],["2026-06-27",43.28],["2026-07-04",42.57],["2026-07-11",41.93],["2026-07-18",41.51],["2026-07-25",41.28],["2026-08-01",41.12],["2026-08-08",40.94],["2026-08-15",40.68],["2026-08-22",40.38],["2026-08-29",40.14],["2026-09-05",40.03],["2026-09-12",40.05],["2026-09-19",40.15],["2026-09-26",40.28],["2026-10-03",40.42]],"GRN":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-26",null],["2024-11-02",null],["2024-11-09",null],["2024-11-16",null],["2024-11-23",null],["2024-11-30",null],["2024-12-07",null],["2024-12-14",null],["2024-12-21",null],["2024-12-28",null],["2025-01-04",null],["2025-01-11",null],["2025-01-18",null],["2025-01-25",null],["2025-02-01",9.32],["2025-02-08",9.3],["2025-02-15",9.35],["2025-02-22",9.45],["2025-03-01",9.6],["2025-03-08",9.76],["2025-03-15",9.87],["2025-03-22",9.83],["2025-03-29",9.52],["2025-04-05",8.94],["2025-04-12",8.43],["2025-04-19",8.25],["2025-04-26",8.32],["2025-05-03",8.5],["2025-05-10",8.69],["2025-05-17",8.81],["2025-05-24",8.83],["2025-05-31",8.75],["2025-06-07",8.59],["2025-06-14",8.37],["2025-06-21",8.14],["2025-06-28",7.92],["2025-07-05",7.73],["2025-07-12",7.62],["2025-07-19",7.67],["2025-07-26",8.05],["2025-08-02",8.81],["2025-08-09",9.54],["2025-08-16",9.9],["2025-08-23",10.02],["2025-08-30",10.04],["2025-09-06",10.01],["2025-09-13",9.95],["2025-09-20",9.88],["2025-09-27",9.8],["2025-10-04",9.72],["2025-10-11",9.66],["2025-10-18",9.6],["2025-10-25",9.55],["2025-11-01",9.51],["2025-11-08",9.46],["2025-11-15",9.43],["2025-11-22",9.42],["2025-11-29",9.43],["2025-12-06",9.46],["2025-12-13",9.49],["2025-12-20",9.53],["2025-12-27",9.58],["2026-01-03",9.65],["2026-01-10",9.77],["2026-01-17",9.97],["2026-01-24",10.19],["2026-01-31",10.39],["2026-02-07",10.55],["2026-02-14",10.67],["2026-02-21",10.76],["2026-02-28",10.84],["2026-03-07",10.94],["2026-03-14",11.09],["2026-03-21",11.33],["2026-03-28",11.65],["2026-04-04",12.02],["2026-04-11",12.36],["2026-04-18",12.57],["2026-04-25",12.54],["2026-05-02",12.2],["2026-05-09",11.56],["2026-05-16",10.8],["2026-05-23",10.19],["2026-05-30",9.82],["2026-06-06",9.7],["2026-06-13",9.77],["2026-06-20",10.02],["2026-06-27",10.42],["2026-07-04",10.88],["2026-07-11",11.25],["2026-07-18",11.47],["2026-07-25",11.55],["2026-08-01",11.55],["2026-08-08",11.53],["2026-08-15",11.51],["2026-08-22",11.52],["2026-08-29",11.56],["2026-09-05",11.59],["2026-09-12",11.6],["2026-09-19",11.6],["2026-09-26",11.58],["2026-10-03",11.55]],"ONEBC":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-26",null],["2024-11-02",null],["2024-11-09",null],["2024-11-16",null],["2024-11-23",null],["2024-11-30",null],["2024-12-07",null],["2024-12-14",null],["2024-12-21",null],["2024-12-28",null],["2025-01-04",null],["2025-01-11",null],["2025-01-18",null],["2025-01-25",null],["2025-02-01",null],["2025-02-08",null],["2025-02-15",null],["2025-02-22",null],["2025-03-01",null],["2025-03-08",null],["2025-03-15",null],["2025-03-22",null],["2025-03-29",null],["2025-04-05",null],["2025-04-12",null],["2025-04-19",null],["2025-04-26",null],["2025-05-03",null],["2025-05-10",null],["2025-05-17",null],["2025-05-24",null],["2025-05-31",null],["2025-06-07",null],["2025-06-14",null],["2025-06-21",null],["2025-06-28",null],["2025-07-05",null],["2025-07-12",null],["2025-07-19",null],["2025-07-26",null],["2025-08-02",null],["2025-08-09",null],["2025-08-16",null],["2025-08-23",null],["2025-08-30",null],["2025-09-06",null],["2025-09-13",null],["2025-09-20",null],["2025-09-27",null],["2025-10-04",2.67],["2025-10-11",2.88],["2025-10-18",3.17],["2025-10-25",3.61],["2025-11-01",4.21],["2025-11-08",4.91],["2025-11-15",5.6],["2025-11-22",6.13],["2025-11-29",6.48],["2025-12-06",6.68],["2025-12-13",6.78],["2025-12-20",6.8],["2025-12-27",6.76],["2026-01-03",6.62],["2026-01-10",6.39],["2026-01-17",6.11],["2026-01-24",5.88],["2026-01-31",5.74],["2026-02-07",5.66],["2026-02-14",5.62],["2026-02-21",5.61],["2026-02-28",5.62],["2026-03-07",5.68],["2026-03-14",5.83],["2026-03-21",6.08],["2026-03-28",6.4],["2026-04-04",6.73],["2026-04-11",7.01],["2026-04-18",7.19],["2026-04-25",7.2],["2026-05-02",6.89],["2026-05-09",6.1],["2026-05-16",4.91],["2026-05-23",3.7],["2026-05-30",2.85],["2026-06-06",2.36],["2026-06-13",2.09],["2026-06-20",1.91],["2026-06-27",1.72],["2026-07-04",1.56],["2026-07-11",1.46],["2026-07-18",1.43],["2026-07-25",1.44],["2026-08-01",1.52],["2026-08-08",1.67],["2026-08-15",1.95],["2026-08-22",2.37],["2026-08-29",2.89],["2026-09-05",3.37],["2026-09-12",3.73],["2026-09-19",3.97],["2026-09-26",4.12],["2026-10-03",4.22]],"CENTRE":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-26",null],["2024-11-02",null],["2024-11-09",null],["2024-11-16",null],["2024-11-23",null],["2024-11-30",null],["2024-12-07",null],["2024-12-14",null],["2024-12-21",null],["2024-12-28",null],["2025-01-04",null],["2025-01-11",null],["2025-01-18",null],["2025-01-25",null],["2025-02-01",null],["2025-02-08",null],["2025-02-15",null],["2025-02-22",null],["2025-03-01",null],["2025-03-08",null],["2025-03-15",null],["2025-03-22",null],["2025-03-29",null],["2025-04-05",null],["2025-04-12",null],["2025-04-19",null],["2025-04-26",null],["2025-05-03",null],["2025-05-10",null],["2025-05-17",null],["2025-05-24",null],["2025-05-31",null],["2025-06-07",null],["2025-06-14",null],["2025-06-21",null],["2025-06-28",null],["2025-07-05",null],["2025-07-12",null],["2025-07-19",null],["2025-07-26",null],["2025-08-02",null],["2025-08-09",null],["2025-08-16",null],["2025-08-23",null],["2025-08-30",null],["2025-09-06",null],["2025-09-13",null],["2025-09-20",null],["2025-09-27",null],["2025-10-04",2.47],["2025-10-11",2.37],["2025-10-18",2.25],["2025-10-25",2.14],["2025-11-01",2.04],["2025-11-08",1.96],["2025-11-15",1.91],["2025-11-22",1.89],["2025-11-29",null],["2025-12-06",null],["2025-12-13",null],["2025-12-20",null],["2025-12-27",null],["2026-01-03",null],["2026-01-10",null],["2026-01-17",null],["2026-01-24",null],["2026-01-31",null],["2026-02-07",null],["2026-02-14",null],["2026-02-21",null],["2026-02-28",null],["2026-03-07",null],["2026-03-14",null],["2026-03-21",null],["2026-03-28",null],["2026-04-04",null],["2026-04-11",null],["2026-04-18",null],["2026-04-25",null],["2026-05-02",null],["2026-05-09",null],["2026-05-16",null],["2026-05-23",null],["2026-05-30",null],["2026-06-06",2.92],["2026-06-13",2.82],["2026-06-20",2.62],["2026-06-27",2.31],["2026-07-04",2.02],["2026-07-11",1.89],["2026-07-18",1.91],["2026-07-25",2.03],["2026-08-01",2.2],["2026-08-08",2.41],["2026-08-15",2.67],["2026-08-22",2.96],["2026-08-29",3.21],["2026-09-05",3.39],["2026-09-12",3.48],["2026-09-19",3.51],["2026-09-26",3.51],["2026-10-03",3.5]]},"file":"2026-10-03_angus-reid.json","publication":{"date":"2026-10-03","path":"by-date/2026-10-03.json","snapshots_that_day":["2026-10-03_angus-reid.json"],"new_polls":[{"date":"2026-10-03","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":1013,"values":{"NDP":43,"CON":48,"GRN":7}}],"previous_date":"2026-10-01","changes":{"from_date":"2026-10-01","from_file":"2026-10-01_mainstreet-research.json","average":{"NDP":0.29,"CON":0.6,"GRN":-0.37,"ONEBC":0.03,"CENTRE":0.01,"OTH":-0.56},"seat_median":{"NDP":-1.0,"CON":1.0,"GRN":-1.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"p_majority":{"NDP":-0.0144,"CON":0.017,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"p_minority":-0.0026,"leader_changes":[{"id":"283","name":"Kelowna Centre","from":"NDP","to":"CON"}]}}}