{"title":"British Columbia 2026 seat projection","label":"Projection, not a poll.","version":"bc-shadow-v1","generated":"2026-10-10T05:17:00+00:00","backfilled":true,"as_of":"2026-09-18","freeze_at":"2026-10-23 23:59:59 America/Vancouver (PDT, UTC-7)","data_window":{"from":"2024-10-20","to":"2026-09-18","rule":"Polls dated after the 2024 election, up to the newest poll; kernel weights as on the site."},"poll_set_hash":"132f5fad535151c1","polls_used":[{"date":"2025-01-26","firm":"Leger","sample":1001,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":42,"GRN":10},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-02-15","firm":"Pallas Data","sample":677,"values":{"NDP":48.8,"CON":40.7,"GRN":7.6},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-03-05","firm":"Research Co.","sample":802,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":42,"GRN":11},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-05-04","firm":"Liaison Strategies","sample":800,"values":{"NDP":45,"CON":47,"GRN":7},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-05-25","firm":"Leger","sample":1032,"values":{"NDP":45,"CON":39,"GRN":11},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-06-09","firm":"Research Co.","sample":803,"values":{"NDP":43,"CON":42,"GRN":8,"ONEBC":1,"CENTRE":2},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-06-24","firm":"Mainstreet Research","sample":943,"values":{"NDP":41,"CON":44,"GRN":7},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-09-05","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":811,"values":{"NDP":42,"CON":44,"GRN":10},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-10-03","firm":"Research Co.","sample":801,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":38,"GRN":12,"ONEBC":1,"CENTRE":3},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-10-06","firm":"Cardinal Research","sample":1088,"values":{"NDP":42.5,"CON":41.3,"GRN":10,"ONEBC":3.8},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-10-12","firm":"Leger","sample":1035,"values":{"NDP":48,"CON":38,"GRN":8},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-10-15","firm":"Abacus Data","sample":1000,"values":{"NDP":47,"CON":40,"GRN":8,"ONEBC":1,"CENTRE":3},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-10-25","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":1044,"values":{"NDP":40,"CON":41,"GRN":11,"ONEBC":5,"CENTRE":1},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-11-25","firm":"EKOS","sample":889,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":35,"GRN":9,"ONEBC":8,"CENTRE":2},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-11-25","firm":"Yorkville Strategies","sample":600,"values":{"NDP":40,"CON":42,"GRN":8,"ONEBC":5},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-12-01","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":463,"values":{"NDP":43,"CON":40,"GRN":11},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-12-13","firm":"Pallas Data","sample":923,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":39,"GRN":9,"ONEBC":7},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-12-18","firm":"Mainstreet Research","sample":1902,"values":{"NDP":41,"CON":41,"GRN":10,"ONEBC":7},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-01-26","firm":"Leger","sample":1003,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":38,"GRN":9,"ONEBC":6},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-02-09","firm":"Leger","sample":1007,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":39,"GRN":9,"ONEBC":5},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-02-14","firm":"Pallas Data","sample":988,"values":{"NDP":42,"CON":37,"GRN":13,"ONEBC":6},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-02-24","firm":"One Persuasion","sample":1005,"values":{"NDP":37,"CON":41,"GRN":11,"ONEBC":6},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-02-27","firm":"Pallas Data","sample":1256,"values":{"NDP":42,"CON":40,"GRN":11,"ONEBC":5},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-03-03","firm":"Innovative Research","sample":991,"values":{"NDP":39,"CON":47,"GRN":10},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-03-13","firm":"Mainstreet Research","sample":1054,"values":{"NDP":39,"CON":37,"GRN":12},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-03-17","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":499,"values":{"NDP":42,"CON":44,"GRN":9},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-04-06","firm":"Leger","sample":1003,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":40,"GRN":10,"ONEBC":3},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-04-13","firm":"Mainstreet Research","sample":1275,"values":{"NDP":38,"CON":32.8,"GRN":16.1,"ONEBC":10.9},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-04-28","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":804,"values":{"NDP":36,"CON":46,"GRN":13},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-06-02","firm":"Leger","sample":1002,"values":{"NDP":41,"CON":45,"GRN":8},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-06-05","firm":"Research Co.","sample":803,"values":{"NDP":42,"CON":42,"GRN":9,"ONEBC":2,"CENTRE":3},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-06-12","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":755,"values":{"NDP":36,"CON":47,"GRN":11},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-07-17","firm":"Fairview Strategy","sample":896,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":40,"GRN":12},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-08-03","firm":"Yorkville Strategies","sample":1016,"values":{"NDP":46,"CON":40,"GRN":12,"ONEBC":1,"CENTRE":0},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-08-08","firm":"604 Polling","sample":1124,"values":{"NDP":35,"CON":45,"GRN":12,"ONEBC":2,"CENTRE":2},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-08-14","firm":"Research Co.","sample":801,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":39,"GRN":10,"ONEBC":1,"CENTRE":5},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-09-14","firm":"Ipsos","sample":800,"values":{"NDP":45,"CON":35,"GRN":10,"ONEBC":2,"CENTRE":4},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-09-15","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":749,"values":{"NDP":41,"CON":37,"GRN":13},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-09-18","firm":"Innovative Research","sample":500,"values":{"NDP":43,"CON":39,"GRN":14},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]}],"new_polls":[{"date":"2026-09-18","firm":"Innovative Research","sample":500,"values":{"NDP":43,"CON":39,"GRN":14}}],"revised_polls":[],"average":{"NDP":{"mean":42.76,"lo":40.28,"hi":45.23},"CON":{"mean":37.57,"lo":35.14,"hi":40.0},"GRN":{"mean":12.02,"lo":10.36,"hi":13.69},"ONEBC":{"mean":1.77,"lo":1.34,"hi":2.19},"CENTRE":{"mean":3.66,"lo":2.4,"hi":4.93}},"model_target":{"NDP":42.76,"CON":37.57,"GRN":12.02,"ONEBC":1.77,"CENTRE":3.66,"OTH":2.22},"parameters":{"sigma_nat":4.601,"sigma_reg":5.246,"sigma_rid":6.785,"df_nat":4,"df_reg":4,"df_rid":4,"alpha":0.5,"draws":10000,"seed":20261024,"absent_transfers":{"GRN":{"NDP":0.6,"CON":0.21,"CENTRE":0.13,"ONEBC":0.03,"OTH":0.03},"ONEBC":{"CON":0.85,"NDP":0.1,"OTH":0.05},"CENTRE":{"CON":0.5,"NDP":0.37,"GRN":0.13}},"bc_united_residual_transfer":{"CENTRE":0.3,"CON":0.44,"NDP":0.175,"GRN":0.05,"OTH":0.035},"new_party_rules":{"ONEBC":"proxy","CENTRE":"proxy"},"regions":["Metro Vancouver","Fraser Valley","Vancouver Island","Interior and North"],"majority":47,"independents_carried":{"306":[{"name":"Jordan Kealy","label_2024":"Conservative Party","kind":"party","share_2024":74.4,"carried":29.0,"sdlog":0.57}]},"independent_rule":{"party":{"median":0.39,"sdlog":0.57},"independent":{"median":1.05,"sdlog":0.25}},"regional_adjustment":{"applied":false,"rule":"shrink province-wide swing toward regional poll splits","groups":{}}},"province":{"seats":{"NDP":{"seats_median":52.0,"seats_mean":51.3893,"seats_lo90":31.0,"seats_hi90":70.0,"p_majority":0.6917,"p_most_seats":0.7328,"vote_median":44.7707,"vote_lo90":37.9537,"vote_hi90":51.27},"CON":{"seats_median":38.0,"seats_mean":38.4093,"seats_lo90":20.0,"seats_hi90":59.0,"p_majority":0.2194,"p_most_seats":0.2537,"vote_median":40.3797,"vote_lo90":33.7974,"vote_hi90":47.0793},"GRN":{"seats_median":3.0,"seats_mean":2.9653,"seats_lo90":1.0,"seats_hi90":7.0,"p_majority":0.0001,"p_most_seats":0.0001,"vote_median":11.4547,"vote_lo90":7.4443,"vote_hi90":15.5125},"ONEBC":{"seats_median":0.0,"seats_mean":0.0004,"seats_lo90":0.0,"seats_hi90":0.0,"p_majority":0.0,"p_most_seats":0.0,"vote_median":0.7962,"vote_lo90":0.1143,"vote_hi90":1.6375},"CENTRE":{"seats_median":0.0,"seats_mean":0.006,"seats_lo90":0.0,"seats_hi90":0.0,"p_majority":0.0,"p_most_seats":0.0,"vote_median":1.6311,"vote_lo90":0.5636,"vote_hi90":2.7757},"OTH":{"seats_median":0.0,"seats_mean":0.2297,"seats_lo90":0.0,"seats_hi90":1.0,"p_majority":0.0,"p_most_seats":0.0,"vote_median":0.9027,"vote_lo90":0.3958,"vote_hi90":1.5083}},"p_minority":0.0888,"p_tied_most_seats":0.0134,"ridings_led":{"NDP":55,"CON":36,"GRN":2,"ONEBC":0,"CENTRE":0,"OTH":0},"ridings_led_point":{"NDP":55,"CON":36,"GRN":2,"ONEBC":0,"CENTRE":0,"OTH":0},"categories":{"Solid":15,"Likely":37,"Leans":20,"Toss-up":21},"toss_ups":21,"seat_histogram":{"NDP":{"0":6,"1":3,"2":4,"3":4,"4":3,"5":6,"6":2,"7":3,"8":4,"9":4,"10":2,"11":7,"12":5,"13":8,"14":10,"15":7,"16":15,"17":13,"18":12,"19":19,"20":12,"21":27,"22":20,"23":18,"24":22,"25":32,"26":40,"27":39,"28":45,"29":46,"30":49,"31":55,"32":69,"33":61,"34":111,"35":113,"36":100,"37":115,"38":173,"39":156,"40":175,"41":194,"42":210,"43":236,"44":280,"45":275,"46":273,"47":322,"48":326,"49":362,"50":359,"51":377,"52":381,"53":360,"54":404,"55":383,"56":307,"57":349,"58":325,"59":299,"60":266,"61":249,"62":228,"63":248,"64":163,"65":167,"66":139,"67":125,"68":114,"69":104,"70":94,"71":88,"72":56,"73":53,"74":31,"75":40,"76":31,"77":27,"78":23,"79":17,"80":16,"81":16,"82":8,"83":10,"84":10,"85":15,"86":9,"87":1,"88":5,"89":3,"90":2,"91":5},"CON":{"0":1,"1":4,"2":5,"3":6,"4":11,"5":12,"6":7,"7":11,"8":8,"9":12,"10":14,"11":24,"12":26,"13":29,"14":24,"15":35,"16":39,"17":57,"18":62,"19":81,"20":97,"21":92,"22":108,"23":139,"24":142,"25":176,"26":160,"27":217,"28":229,"29":276,"30":303,"31":284,"32":326,"33":352,"34":352,"35":345,"36":404,"37":389,"38":371,"39":383,"40":382,"41":357,"42":329,"43":311,"44":312,"45":249,"46":253,"47":234,"48":211,"49":221,"50":162,"51":163,"52":129,"53":127,"54":99,"55":110,"56":85,"57":82,"58":62,"59":52,"60":49,"61":50,"62":33,"63":31,"64":38,"65":21,"66":31,"67":21,"68":22,"69":23,"70":17,"71":17,"72":17,"73":11,"74":10,"75":5,"76":8,"77":7,"78":2,"79":7,"80":5,"81":7,"82":2,"83":3,"84":4,"85":3,"86":2,"87":3,"88":1,"89":3,"90":2,"91":1,"92":1},"GRN":{"0":494,"1":1493,"2":2804,"3":2274,"4":1311,"5":689,"6":389,"7":227,"8":126,"9":77,"10":42,"11":29,"12":17,"13":7,"14":6,"15":4,"16":4,"17":2,"18":1,"20":1,"21":1,"35":1,"47":1},"ONEBC":{"0":9997,"1":2,"2":1},"CENTRE":{"0":9942,"1":56,"2":2},"OTH":{"0":7704,"1":2295,"2":1}},"projected_vote":{"NDP":45.0,"CON":40.34,"GRN":11.45,"ONEBC":0.76,"CENTRE":1.59,"OTH":0.85}},"ridings":[{"id":"258","name":"Abbotsford-Mission","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Reann Gasper","share":55.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":55.4,"NDP":44.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":42.73,"CON":50.66,"ONEBC":2.15,"CENTRE":4.45},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Vacant","party_at_dissolution":null,"not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":"vacant"},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5804,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4194,"CON":0.5804,"ONEBC":0.0001,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":43.82,"CON":47.33,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":2.25,"CENTRE":4.49,"OTH":2.12},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":28.78,"median":43.82,"hi90":58.37},"CON":{"lo90":31.45,"median":46.9,"hi90":61.88},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.88,"hi90":7.34},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.13,"median":4.2,"hi90":11.22},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.66,"hi90":7.23}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"vacant","note":"Vacant: Reann Gasper (Conservative) resigned 2026-08-22; the 2026-09-26 by-election was cancelled by dissolution. Kerry-Lynne Findlay is not a candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: no incumbent."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"259","name":"Abbotsford South","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Bruce Banman","share":61.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":61.6,"NDP":35.2,"IND":3.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":34.39,"CON":57.99,"ONEBC":2.48,"CENTRE":5.13},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Bruce Banman","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8784,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1216,"CON":0.8784},"point":{"NDP":38.6,"CON":58.73,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":2.67,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":24.69,"median":38.76,"hi90":53.54},"CON":{"lo90":43.45,"median":58.44,"hi90":72.34},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.26,"hi90":8.01}},"baseline_moves":["Amandeep Singh (independent 2024, 3.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Bruce Banman: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"260","name":"Abbotsford West","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Korky Neufeld","share":58.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":58.4,"NDP":36.9,"IND":4.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":36.05,"CON":55.16,"ONEBC":2.35,"CENTRE":6.44},"running":["NDP","CON","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Korky Neufeld","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8404,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1595,"CON":0.8404,"CENTRE":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":38.26,"CON":55.13,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":6.61,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":23.48,"median":38.15,"hi90":52.97},"CON":{"lo90":39.91,"median":55.01,"hi90":69.97},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.6,"median":6.39,"hi90":14.33}},"baseline_moves":["James Davison (independent 2024, 4.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"261","name":"Boundary-Similkameen","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Donegal Wilson","share":48.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":48.4,"NDP":42.6,"GRN":5.9,"IND":3.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":41.69,"CON":46.45,"GRN":5.82,"ONEBC":1.97,"CENTRE":4.07},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Donegal Wilson","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.56,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.56,"CON":0.4399,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":50.1,"CON":47.55,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":2.35,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":35.7,"median":49.94,"hi90":63.74},"CON":{"lo90":33.55,"median":47.57,"hi90":61.6},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.19,"median":1.91,"hi90":7.2}},"baseline_moves":["Sean Taylor (independent 2024, 3.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Donegal Wilson: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"262","name":"Bulkley Valley-Stikine","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Sharon L. Hartwell","share":52.3},"shares_2024":{"CON":52.3,"NDP":38.9,"GRN":6.3,"OTH":2.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":37.21,"CON":47.82,"GRN":6.24,"ONEBC":2.03,"CENTRE":4.2,"OTH":2.5},"running":["NDP","CON","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Sharon Hartwell","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6294,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3705,"CON":0.6294,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":45.23,"CON":49.79,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":4.99},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":31.53,"median":45.03,"hi90":58.61},"CON":{"lo90":36.29,"median":49.97,"hi90":63.59},"OTH":{"lo90":0.56,"median":4.62,"hi90":10.85}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"263","name":"Burnaby Centre","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Anne Kang","share":57.3},"shares_2024":{"NDP":57.3,"CON":42.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":55.31,"CON":39.59,"ONEBC":1.66,"CENTRE":3.44},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Anne Kang","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8726,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8726,"CON":0.1274},"point":{"NDP":56.44,"CON":38.29,"GRN":1.97,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":3.29,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":41.88,"median":55.95,"hi90":69.33},"CON":{"lo90":24.74,"median":38.33,"hi90":51.75},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.59,"hi90":8.14},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.98,"hi90":8.79}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"264","name":"Burnaby East","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Reah Arora","share":51.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.8,"CON":40.5,"GRN":7.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":50.07,"CON":37.54,"GRN":7.55,"ONEBC":1.57,"CENTRE":3.26},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Rohini Arora","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.851,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.851,"CON":0.1479,"GRN":0.0011},"point":{"NDP":50.93,"CON":35.54,"GRN":11.94,"ONEBC":1.6,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":36.95,"median":50.77,"hi90":64.31},"CON":{"lo90":22.76,"median":35.53,"hi90":48.95},"GRN":{"lo90":3.3,"median":11.7,"hi90":21.39},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.24,"hi90":5.51}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"265","name":"Burnaby-New Westminster","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Raj Chouhan","share":60.0},"shares_2024":{"NDP":60.0,"CON":34.7,"IND":5.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":59.45,"CON":35.59,"GRN":0.39,"ONEBC":1.48,"CENTRE":3.08},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Raj Chouhan","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9422,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9422,"CON":0.0578},"point":{"NDP":61.58,"CON":35.56,"GRN":2.86,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":47.41,"median":61.19,"hi90":73.81},"CON":{"lo90":22.78,"median":35.58,"hi90":49.24},"GRN":{"lo90":0.07,"median":2.51,"hi90":9.12}},"baseline_moves":["Daniel Kofi Ampong (independent 2024, 5.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"266","name":"Burnaby North","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Janet Routledge","share":53.3},"shares_2024":{"NDP":53.3,"CON":43.0,"IND":3.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":52.28,"CON":42.01,"GRN":0.28,"ONEBC":1.77,"CENTRE":3.66},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Janet Routledge","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8101,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8101,"CON":0.1898,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":54.46,"CON":40.91,"GRN":2.79,"ONEBC":1.83,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":39.75,"median":53.97,"hi90":67.47},"CON":{"lo90":27.25,"median":40.92,"hi90":54.5},"GRN":{"lo90":0.09,"median":2.38,"hi90":9.01},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.45,"hi90":6.05}},"baseline_moves":["Martin Kendell (independent 2024, 3.7%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"267","name":"Burnaby South-Metrotown","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Paul Choi","share":49.3},"shares_2024":{"NDP":49.3,"CON":41.6,"GRN":6.3,"IND":1.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":48.27,"CON":40.14,"GRN":6.4,"ONEBC":1.69,"CENTRE":3.5},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Paul Choi","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7776,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7776,"CON":0.222,"GRN":0.0004},"point":{"NDP":49.41,"CON":38.32,"GRN":10.55,"ONEBC":1.72,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":35.35,"median":49.34,"hi90":62.77},"CON":{"lo90":25.06,"median":38.26,"hi90":52.08},"GRN":{"lo90":2.35,"median":10.25,"hi90":19.42},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.35,"hi90":5.66}},"baseline_moves":["Meiling Chia (independent 2024, 1.9%) not running: transferred","MichaelAngelo Abc RobinHood (independent 2024, 0.9%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"268","name":"Cariboo-Chilcotin","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Lorne Doerkson","share":69.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":69.6,"NDP":30.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":28.88,"CON":62.84,"ONEBC":2.7,"CENTRE":5.59},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Lorne Doerkson","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9735,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0264,"CON":0.9735,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":31.72,"CON":65.57,"GRN":2.71,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":18.15,"median":31.48,"hi90":45.29},"CON":{"lo90":50.96,"median":65.21,"hi90":78.56},"GRN":{"lo90":0.17,"median":2.35,"hi90":9.88}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"leader_seat","note":"Conservative interim leader Lorne Doerkson.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low (safe seats)."}]},{"id":"269","name":"Chilliwack-Cultus Lake","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"A'aliya Warbus","share":54.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":54.6,"NDP":45.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":43.53,"CON":49.96,"ONEBC":2.12,"CENTRE":4.39},"running":["NDP","CON"],"incumbent":{"name":"Áʼa꞉líya Warbus","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6043,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3957,"CON":0.6043},"point":{"NDP":47.87,"CON":52.13,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.79,"median":47.81,"hi90":62.96},"CON":{"lo90":37.04,"median":52.19,"hi90":67.21}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Áʼa꞉líya Warbus: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"270","name":"Chilliwack North","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Heather Maahs","share":54.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":54.6,"NDP":37.7,"GRN":5.5,"IND":2.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":36.01,"CON":49.8,"GRN":5.43,"ONEBC":2.12,"CENTRE":6.64},"running":["NDP","CON","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Heather Maahs","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.695,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.305,"CON":0.695},"point":{"NDP":42.01,"CON":50.32,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":7.67,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":27.25,"median":41.97,"hi90":56.81},"CON":{"lo90":35.26,"median":50.33,"hi90":65.51},"CENTRE":{"lo90":1.46,"median":7.33,"hi90":15.36}},"baseline_moves":["Dan Grice (independent 2024) runs again as CENTRE"],"notes":[{"type":"returning_candidate","note":"Dan Grice took 2.3% as an independent in 2024 and is the 2026 CentreBC candidate; v1 moves his 2024 vote to CentreBC.","v1":"His 2024 votes are assigned to CentreBC.","why_it_may_matter":"Low."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"271","name":"Columbia River-Revelstoke","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Scott McInnis","share":47.9},"shares_2024":{"CON":47.9,"NDP":44.3,"GRN":7.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":42.52,"CON":44.04,"GRN":7.72,"ONEBC":1.86,"CENTRE":3.85},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Scott McInnis","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.513,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4852,"CON":0.513,"GRN":0.0018},"point":{"NDP":43.85,"CON":43.89,"GRN":12.26,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":28.83,"median":43.49,"hi90":58.18},"CON":{"lo90":29.93,"median":44.02,"hi90":58.81},"GRN":{"lo90":3.01,"median":12.03,"hi90":22.23}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Scott McInnis: left or was removed from the Conservative caucus in September 2026 and returned on 2026-09-21; Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low."}]},{"id":"272","name":"Coquitlam-Burke Mountain","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Jodie Wickens","share":50.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":50.8,"CON":49.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":48.9,"CON":45.24,"ONEBC":1.91,"CENTRE":3.95},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jodie Wickens","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.6438,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.6438,"CON":0.3561,"CENTRE":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":50.0,"CON":44.21,"GRN":1.98,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":3.81,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":35.48,"median":49.56,"hi90":63.12},"CON":{"lo90":30.22,"median":44.16,"hi90":58.14},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.56,"hi90":7.91},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.47,"hi90":9.76}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"273","name":"Coquitlam-Maillardville","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Jennifer Blatherwick","share":51.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.8,"CON":39.6,"GRN":6.3,"IND":2.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":50.6,"CON":38.07,"GRN":6.43,"ONEBC":1.6,"CENTRE":3.31},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jennifer Blatherwick","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8193,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8193,"CON":0.1801,"GRN":0.0006},"point":{"NDP":51.81,"CON":37.64,"GRN":10.55,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":37.65,"median":51.55,"hi90":65.29},"CON":{"lo90":24.72,"median":37.76,"hi90":51.67},"GRN":{"lo90":2.53,"median":10.25,"hi90":19.63}},"baseline_moves":["Ken Holowanky (independent 2024, 2.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"274","name":"Courtenay-Comox","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Brennan Day","share":38.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":38.8,"NDP":38.6,"GRN":20.7,"IND":1.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":37.48,"CON":36.61,"GRN":20.6,"ONEBC":1.54,"CENTRE":3.77},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Brennan Day","party_at_dissolution":"IND","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.494,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.494,"CON":0.3666,"GRN":0.1394},"point":{"NDP":36.03,"CON":33.35,"GRN":27.2,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":3.42,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":21.52,"median":35.72,"hi90":50.36},"CON":{"lo90":19.53,"median":33.42,"hi90":48.3},"GRN":{"lo90":13.55,"median":26.76,"hi90":40.83},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.08,"hi90":9.5}},"baseline_moves":["John Hedican (independent 2024, 1.5%) not running: transferred","Devin Howell (independent 2024, 0.4%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Brennan Day left the Conservative caucus on 2026-08-26 and returned after the writ; Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low."}]},{"id":"275","name":"Cowichan Valley","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Debra Toporowski","share":40.5},"shares_2024":{"NDP":40.5,"CON":37.6,"GRN":19.8,"IND":1.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":39.56,"CON":35.94,"GRN":19.75,"ONEBC":1.51,"CENTRE":3.13,"OTH":0.1},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Debra Toporowski","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5715,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5715,"CON":0.3298,"GRN":0.0987},"point":{"NDP":38.39,"CON":33.44,"GRN":26.05,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.12},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":23.72,"median":38.11,"hi90":52.51},"CON":{"lo90":20.47,"median":33.59,"hi90":48.08},"GRN":{"lo90":12.85,"median":25.47,"hi90":39.19},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.73,"hi90":7.04}},"baseline_moves":["Eden Haythornthwaite (independent 2024, 1.2%) not running: transferred","Jon Coleman (independent 2024, 0.9%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"276","name":"Delta North","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Ravi Kahlon","share":52.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":52.7,"CON":40.2,"GRN":6.2,"OTH":0.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":50.94,"CON":37.28,"GRN":6.13,"ONEBC":1.56,"CENTRE":3.24,"OTH":0.85},"running":["NDP","CON","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Ravi Kahlon","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9032,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9032,"CON":0.0968},"point":{"NDP":57.76,"CON":37.82,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":4.42,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":44.44,"median":57.61,"hi90":70.58},"CON":{"lo90":24.9,"median":37.84,"hi90":51.3},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.92,"median":4.2,"hi90":9.77}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Ravi Kahlon (NDP) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate: loss of incumbent (The Writ docks a party 3-4 points when its incumbent leaves)."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"277","name":"Delta South","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Ian Paton","share":55.1},"shares_2024":{"CON":55.1,"NDP":44.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":43.04,"CON":50.39,"ONEBC":2.14,"CENTRE":4.43},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Ian Paton","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6248,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3752,"CON":0.6248},"point":{"NDP":45.45,"CON":49.78,"GRN":2.54,"ONEBC":2.23,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":31.43,"median":45.11,"hi90":58.78},"CON":{"lo90":35.73,"median":49.72,"hi90":62.83},"GRN":{"lo90":0.15,"median":2.14,"hi90":8.54},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.86,"hi90":6.56}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Ian Paton: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."},{"type":"notable_candidate","note":"Jim McMurtry (OneBC's first nominee; independent in Surrey-Serpentine River in 2024, PPC federally in 2025) runs here against incumbent Ian Paton (Conservative).","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate."}]},{"id":"278","name":"Esquimalt-Colwood","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Darlene Rotchford","share":51.5},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.5,"CON":29.2,"GRN":19.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":50.02,"CON":27.35,"GRN":19.14,"ONEBC":1.13,"CENTRE":2.36},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Darlene Rotchford","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8909,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8909,"CON":0.0516,"GRN":0.0575},"point":{"NDP":48.16,"CON":24.36,"GRN":25.39,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":2.09,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.76,"median":47.95,"hi90":63.07},"CON":{"lo90":11.78,"median":24.39,"hi90":38.6},"GRN":{"lo90":11.99,"median":24.92,"hi90":39.04},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.69,"hi90":7.4}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"279","name":"Fraser-Nicola","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Tony Luck","share":54.3},"shares_2024":{"CON":54.3,"NDP":36.4,"GRN":9.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":34.81,"CON":49.58,"GRN":9.14,"ONEBC":2.11,"CENTRE":4.37},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Tony Luck","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8173,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1807,"CON":0.8173,"GRN":0.002},"point":{"NDP":36.23,"CON":49.65,"GRN":14.12,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":21.72,"median":35.92,"hi90":50.14},"CON":{"lo90":35.54,"median":49.84,"hi90":64.58},"GRN":{"lo90":4.39,"median":13.88,"hi90":24.74}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"280","name":"Juan de Fuca-Malahat","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Dana Lajeunesse","share":38.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":38.8,"CON":38.2,"GRN":23.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":37.4,"CON":35.29,"GRN":22.75,"ONEBC":1.48,"CENTRE":3.07},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Dana Lajeunesse","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5053,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5053,"CON":0.2936,"GRN":0.2011},"point":{"NDP":35.88,"CON":31.33,"GRN":29.44,"ONEBC":1.42,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":1.93},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":21.32,"median":35.61,"hi90":50.03},"CON":{"lo90":17.92,"median":31.34,"hi90":45.55},"GRN":{"lo90":15.49,"median":28.9,"hi90":43.04},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.0,"hi90":5.43},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.55,"hi90":6.83}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"281","name":"Kamloops Centre","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Peter Milobar","share":48.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":48.8,"NDP":40.9,"GRN":10.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":39.27,"CON":44.79,"GRN":10.12,"ONEBC":1.9,"CENTRE":3.93},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Peter Milobar","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5779,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4176,"CON":0.5779,"GRN":0.0045},"point":{"NDP":39.35,"CON":41.84,"GRN":14.93,"ONEBC":1.88,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":24.64,"median":38.85,"hi90":53.0},"CON":{"lo90":27.64,"median":41.79,"hi90":56.23},"GRN":{"lo90":4.94,"median":14.62,"hi90":25.72},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.46,"hi90":6.46},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.54,"hi90":6.94}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Peter Milobar: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."}]},{"id":"282","name":"Kamloops-North Thompson","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Ward Stamer","share":59.7},"shares_2024":{"CON":59.7,"NDP":32.9,"GRN":7.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":31.37,"CON":54.26,"GRN":7.25,"ONEBC":2.32,"CENTRE":4.8},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Ward Stamer","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8324,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1676,"CON":0.8324},"point":{"NDP":41.22,"CON":56.0,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":2.78,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":27.7,"median":40.87,"hi90":55.07},"CON":{"lo90":41.86,"median":56.13,"hi90":69.61},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.26,"median":2.41,"hi90":7.67}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"283","name":"Kelowna Centre","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Kristina Loewen","share":42.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":42.8,"NDP":42.7,"IND":10.1,"GRN":4.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":43.76,"CON":46.0,"GRN":4.26,"ONEBC":1.95,"CENTRE":4.03},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Kristina Loewen","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5997,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5997,"CON":0.4003},"point":{"NDP":50.96,"CON":46.78,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":2.27,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":36.31,"median":50.75,"hi90":64.51},"CON":{"lo90":32.82,"median":46.74,"hi90":60.97},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.13,"median":1.85,"hi90":6.99}},"baseline_moves":["Michael Humer (independent 2024, 10.1%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Michael Humer took 10.1% as an independent in 2024; not running. His vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"284","name":"Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Tara Armstrong","share":53.9},"shares_2024":{"CON":53.9,"NDP":35.2,"IND":6.5,"GRN":4.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":35.29,"CON":53.01,"GRN":4.76,"ONEBC":2.26,"CENTRE":4.68},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Tara Armstrong","party_at_dissolution":"IND","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.834,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1658,"CON":0.834,"GRN":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":37.1,"CON":51.88,"GRN":8.69,"ONEBC":2.33,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":22.88,"median":36.76,"hi90":51.02},"CON":{"lo90":37.03,"median":51.78,"hi90":66.23},"GRN":{"lo90":1.16,"median":8.43,"hi90":17.93},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.94,"hi90":7.38}},"baseline_moves":["Kevin Kraft (independent 2024, 6.5%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Tara Armstrong (elected Conservative 2024; OneBC co-founder, then independent) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate."}]},{"id":"285","name":"Kelowna-Mission","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Gavin Dew","share":51.5},"shares_2024":{"CON":51.5,"NDP":32.6,"IND":11.0,"GRN":4.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":33.88,"CON":53.44,"GRN":5.68,"ONEBC":2.28,"CENTRE":4.72},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Gavin Dew","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8658,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1335,"CON":0.8658,"GRN":0.0007},"point":{"NDP":35.59,"CON":52.21,"GRN":9.86,"ONEBC":2.34,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":21.34,"median":35.13,"hi90":49.41},"CON":{"lo90":37.72,"median":52.33,"hi90":66.55},"GRN":{"lo90":1.64,"median":9.58,"hi90":19.43},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.96,"hi90":7.31}},"baseline_moves":["Ashley Ramsay (independent 2024, 11.0%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Ashley Ramsay took 11.0% as an independent in 2024; not running. Her vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"286","name":"Kootenay Central","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Brittny Anderson","share":39.6},"shares_2024":{"NDP":39.6,"CON":31.7,"GRN":18.7,"IND":10.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":40.76,"CON":35.39,"GRN":19.28,"ONEBC":1.49,"CENTRE":3.08},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Brittny Anderson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.6482,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.6482,"CON":0.2713,"GRN":0.0805},"point":{"NDP":40.2,"CON":32.34,"GRN":26.01,"ONEBC":1.46,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":25.33,"median":39.93,"hi90":54.52},"CON":{"lo90":18.53,"median":32.33,"hi90":47.12},"GRN":{"lo90":13.09,"median":25.74,"hi90":38.34},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.04,"hi90":5.81}},"baseline_moves":["Corinne Mori (independent 2024, 10.0%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Corinne Mori took 10.0% as an independent in 2024; not running. Her vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"287","name":"Kootenay-Monashee","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Steve Morissette","share":52.0},"shares_2024":{"NDP":52.0,"CON":38.9,"GRN":9.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":50.3,"CON":36.05,"GRN":9.01,"ONEBC":1.51,"CENTRE":3.13},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Steve Morissette","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8546,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8546,"CON":0.1428,"GRN":0.0026},"point":{"NDP":50.88,"CON":33.88,"GRN":13.72,"ONEBC":1.52,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":35.54,"median":50.56,"hi90":64.88},"CON":{"lo90":20.05,"median":33.91,"hi90":48.43},"GRN":{"lo90":3.92,"median":13.47,"hi90":24.19},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.1,"hi90":6.09}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"288","name":"Kootenay-Rockies","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Pete Davis","share":42.7},"shares_2024":{"CON":42.7,"IND":30.4,"NDP":21.7,"GRN":5.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":25.94,"CON":51.24,"GRN":6.65,"ONEBC":2.2,"CENTRE":13.98},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Pete Davis","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9256,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0674,"CON":0.9256,"GRN":0.0025,"CENTRE":0.0045},"point":{"NDP":25.8,"CON":47.75,"GRN":10.51,"ONEBC":2.25,"CENTRE":13.69,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":12.37,"median":25.5,"hi90":39.11},"CON":{"lo90":32.66,"median":47.81,"hi90":62.72},"GRN":{"lo90":1.64,"median":10.21,"hi90":20.65},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.89,"hi90":7.18},"CENTRE":{"lo90":3.6,"median":13.32,"hi90":23.69}},"baseline_moves":["Tom Shypitka (independent 2024, 30.4%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Tom Shypitka (ex-BC United MLA) took 30.4% as an independent in 2024; not running. His vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"289","name":"Ladysmith-Oceanside","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Stephanie Higginson","share":41.5},"shares_2024":{"NDP":41.5,"CON":35.5,"IND":16.3,"GRN":6.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.03,"CON":42.6,"GRN":7.85,"ONEBC":1.8,"CENTRE":3.72},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Stephanie Higginson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5633,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5633,"CON":0.4341,"GRN":0.0026},"point":{"NDP":45.27,"CON":42.33,"GRN":12.4,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":29.84,"median":45.03,"hi90":59.72},"CON":{"lo90":28.11,"median":42.57,"hi90":57.39},"GRN":{"lo90":2.53,"median":11.97,"hi90":23.56}},"baseline_moves":["Adam Walker (independent 2024, 16.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Adam Walker took 16.3% as an independent in 2024; not running. His vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"290","name":"Langford-Highlands","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Ravi Parmar","share":51.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.9,"CON":37.4,"GRN":10.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":50.17,"CON":34.74,"GRN":10.62,"ONEBC":1.45,"CENTRE":3.01},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Ravi Parmar","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8599,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8599,"CON":0.1351,"GRN":0.0049,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":48.6,"CON":31.62,"GRN":15.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":2.72,"OTH":2.06},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":33.04,"median":48.2,"hi90":62.78},"CON":{"lo90":18.39,"median":31.53,"hi90":46.01},"GRN":{"lo90":4.09,"median":14.5,"hi90":26.39},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.37,"hi90":8.24},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.67,"hi90":7.04}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"291","name":"Langley-Abbotsford","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Harman Bhangu","share":55.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":55.6,"NDP":33.7,"GRN":5.6,"IND":4.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":33.21,"CON":53.07,"GRN":5.78,"ONEBC":2.27,"CENTRE":4.69,"OTH":0.99},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Harman Bhangu","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8538,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1455,"CON":0.8538,"GRN":0.0007},"point":{"NDP":34.16,"CON":50.74,"GRN":9.78,"ONEBC":2.28,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.03},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":19.98,"median":33.96,"hi90":48.28},"CON":{"lo90":35.41,"median":50.45,"hi90":65.11},"GRN":{"lo90":1.8,"median":9.47,"hi90":18.86},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.88,"hi90":7.32},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.61,"hi90":8.48}},"baseline_moves":["Karen Long (independent 2024, 4.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"292","name":"Langley-Walnut Grove","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Misty Van Popta","share":49.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":49.6,"NDP":44.8,"GRN":5.1,"IND":0.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":43.07,"CON":45.73,"GRN":5.09,"ONEBC":1.93,"CENTRE":4.18},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Misty Van Popta","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5235,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4761,"CON":0.5235,"GRN":0.0004},"point":{"NDP":43.41,"CON":44.11,"GRN":8.5,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":3.98,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":27.68,"median":43.26,"hi90":58.67},"CON":{"lo90":28.56,"median":44.06,"hi90":59.16},"GRN":{"lo90":0.45,"median":8.14,"hi90":17.67},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.6,"hi90":10.85}},"baseline_moves":["Carlos Suarez Rubio (independent 2024, 0.5%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"293","name":"Langley-Willowbrook","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Jody Toor","share":48.2},"shares_2024":{"CON":48.2,"NDP":44.4,"GRN":7.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":42.68,"CON":44.32,"GRN":7.25,"ONEBC":1.87,"CENTRE":3.88},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jody Toor","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5297,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5297,"CON":0.4689,"GRN":0.0014},"point":{"NDP":43.88,"CON":42.54,"GRN":11.67,"ONEBC":1.91,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":28.4,"median":43.6,"hi90":58.58},"CON":{"lo90":27.35,"median":42.44,"hi90":57.38},"GRN":{"lo90":2.8,"median":11.35,"hi90":21.73},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.56,"hi90":6.76}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"294","name":"Maple Ridge East","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Lawrence Mok","share":47.0},"shares_2024":{"CON":47.0,"NDP":46.6,"GRN":6.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.85,"CON":43.28,"GRN":6.26,"ONEBC":1.83,"CENTRE":3.78},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Lawrence Mok","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.574,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.574,"CON":0.4253,"GRN":0.0007},"point":{"NDP":45.39,"CON":42.28,"GRN":10.22,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.11},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":29.79,"median":45.1,"hi90":59.77},"CON":{"lo90":27.49,"median":42.18,"hi90":57.28},"GRN":{"lo90":1.99,"median":9.89,"hi90":19.78},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.64,"hi90":7.15}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"295","name":"Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Lisa Beare","share":54.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":54.9,"CON":45.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":52.92,"CON":41.7,"ONEBC":1.75,"CENTRE":3.63},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Lisa Beare","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8279,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8279,"CON":0.1721},"point":{"NDP":55.07,"CON":39.3,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":1.88,"CENTRE":3.75,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":40.02,"median":54.94,"hi90":69.47},"CON":{"lo90":24.34,"median":38.92,"hi90":53.58},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.49,"hi90":6.77},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.42,"hi90":10.3}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"296","name":"Mid Island-Pacific Rim","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Josie Osborne","share":48.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":48.7,"CON":39.5,"GRN":11.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":47.07,"CON":36.54,"GRN":11.68,"ONEBC":1.53,"CENTRE":3.18},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Josie Osborne","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7771,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7771,"CON":0.2172,"GRN":0.0057},"point":{"NDP":47.49,"CON":35.52,"GRN":16.99,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.41,"median":47.31,"hi90":62.13},"CON":{"lo90":21.54,"median":35.7,"hi90":50.13},"GRN":{"lo90":5.51,"median":16.58,"hi90":29.07}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"297","name":"Nanaimo-Gabriola Island","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Sheila Malcolmson","share":52.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":52.7,"CON":34.7,"GRN":12.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":51.11,"CON":32.28,"GRN":12.48,"ONEBC":1.35,"CENTRE":2.79},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Sheila Malcolmson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8954,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8954,"CON":0.0962,"GRN":0.0084},"point":{"NDP":51.15,"CON":30.98,"GRN":17.87,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":35.98,"median":50.9,"hi90":65.57},"CON":{"lo90":17.8,"median":31.2,"hi90":45.33},"GRN":{"lo90":6.11,"median":17.45,"hi90":30.05}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"298","name":"Nanaimo-Lantzville","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"George Anderson","share":51.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.7,"CON":39.5,"GRN":8.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":50.0,"CON":36.63,"GRN":8.65,"ONEBC":1.53,"CENTRE":3.18},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"George Anderson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8247,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8247,"CON":0.1722,"GRN":0.0031},"point":{"NDP":49.8,"CON":35.11,"GRN":13.02,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.08},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":34.82,"median":49.53,"hi90":63.93},"CON":{"lo90":21.46,"median":35.21,"hi90":49.31},"GRN":{"lo90":2.82,"median":12.54,"hi90":24.04},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.67,"hi90":6.87}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"299","name":"Nechako Lakes","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"John Rustad","share":67.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":67.4,"NDP":27.2,"GRN":5.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":25.83,"CON":60.88,"GRN":5.26,"ONEBC":2.62,"CENTRE":5.41},"running":["NDP","CON","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"John Rustad","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9641,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0359,"CON":0.9641},"point":{"NDP":33.89,"CON":63.63,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.48},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":20.84,"median":33.63,"hi90":47.1},"CON":{"lo90":50.19,"median":63.7,"hi90":76.61},"OTH":{"lo90":0.27,"median":2.02,"hi90":7.45}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"John Rustad (former Conservative leader, MLA since 2005) is not running. Elections BC's web table lists an unaffiliated candidate (Clint Lambert) whom its CSV omits.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: loss of a long-time incumbent in a safe seat."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"300","name":"New Westminster-Coquitlam","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Jennifer Whiteside","share":59.1},"shares_2024":{"NDP":59.1,"CON":29.8,"GRN":11.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":57.52,"CON":27.98,"GRN":10.94,"ONEBC":1.16,"CENTRE":2.41},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jennifer Whiteside","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9697,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9697,"CON":0.0275,"GRN":0.0028},"point":{"NDP":56.32,"CON":26.02,"GRN":15.61,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.04},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":42.07,"median":56.11,"hi90":69.23},"CON":{"lo90":14.52,"median":26.07,"hi90":38.84},"GRN":{"lo90":5.71,"median":15.29,"hi90":25.9},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.73,"hi90":6.48}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"301","name":"North Coast-Haida Gwaii","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Tamara Davidson","share":64.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":64.9,"CON":35.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":63.02,"CON":32.79,"ONEBC":1.36,"CENTRE":2.83},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Tamara Davidson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9645,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9645,"CON":0.0355},"point":{"NDP":65.12,"CON":32.57,"GRN":2.31,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":50.02,"median":64.37,"hi90":77.96},"CON":{"lo90":19.09,"median":32.63,"hi90":46.75},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.95,"hi90":9.58}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"302","name":"North Island","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Anna Kindy","share":47.1},"shares_2024":{"CON":47.1,"NDP":44.9,"GRN":8.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":43.19,"CON":43.29,"GRN":7.9,"ONEBC":1.83,"CENTRE":3.79},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Anna Kindy","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.529,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.529,"CON":0.4684,"GRN":0.0025,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":43.56,"CON":42.12,"GRN":12.22,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.1},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":28.55,"median":43.29,"hi90":57.55},"CON":{"lo90":28.11,"median":42.18,"hi90":56.6},"GRN":{"lo90":2.33,"median":11.8,"hi90":22.94},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.68,"hi90":6.84}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"303","name":"North Vancouver-Lonsdale","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Bowinn Ma","share":64.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":64.9,"CON":35.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":62.98,"CON":32.83,"ONEBC":1.36,"CENTRE":2.83},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Bowinn Ma","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9721,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9721,"CON":0.0278,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":65.08,"CON":32.61,"GRN":2.31,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":51.04,"median":64.6,"hi90":77.51},"CON":{"lo90":19.95,"median":32.67,"hi90":45.79},"GRN":{"lo90":0.02,"median":1.96,"hi90":8.29}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"304","name":"North Vancouver-Seymour","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Susie Chant","share":52.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":52.8,"CON":35.8,"IND":5.8,"GRN":5.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":52.05,"CON":35.7,"GRN":5.85,"ONEBC":1.49,"CENTRE":4.91},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Susie Chant","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9025,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9025,"CON":0.0967,"GRN":0.0006,"CENTRE":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":52.01,"CON":32.38,"GRN":9.41,"ONEBC":1.52,"CENTRE":4.68,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":37.63,"median":51.58,"hi90":65.47},"CON":{"lo90":19.36,"median":32.32,"hi90":45.63},"GRN":{"lo90":1.63,"median":9.19,"hi90":18.22},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.18,"hi90":5.38},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.38,"hi90":11.03}},"baseline_moves":["Mitchell Baker (independent 2024, 5.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_moved","note":"Lynne Block (Conservative MLA for West Vancouver-Capilano) is the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: a sitting MLA as challenger."}]},{"id":"305","name":"Oak Bay-Gordon Head","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Diana Gibson","share":49.1},"shares_2024":{"NDP":49.1,"CON":28.9,"GRN":22.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":47.71,"CON":27.02,"GRN":21.82,"ONEBC":1.12,"CENTRE":2.33},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Diana Gibson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8364,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8364,"CON":0.0548,"GRN":0.1088},"point":{"NDP":45.59,"CON":23.88,"GRN":28.49,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":2.05,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":30.24,"median":45.32,"hi90":60.33},"CON":{"lo90":11.44,"median":23.91,"hi90":37.85},"GRN":{"lo90":14.53,"median":28.02,"hi90":42.2},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.66,"hi90":7.36}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"notable_candidate","note":"Andrew Weaver (Green leader 2015-2020 and MLA for Oak Bay-Gordon Head 2013-2020) runs for CentreBC.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"High: a former MLA with a personal following could take far more than CentreBC's provincial share."}]},{"id":"306","name":"Peace River North","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Jordan Kealy","share":74.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":74.4,"IND":20.1,"NDP":5.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":5.15,"CON":56.75,"ONEBC":2.49,"CENTRE":5.13,"OTH":30.48},"running":["CON","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jordan Kealy","party_at_dissolution":"IND","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7709,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"CON":0.7709,"OTH":0.2291},"point":{"NDP":0.0,"CON":65.86,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":34.14},"share":{"CON":{"lo90":23.19,"median":65.81,"hi90":86.31},"OTH":{"lo90":13.69,"median":34.19,"hi90":76.81}},"baseline_moves":["Jordan Kealy (Conservative Party 2024, 74.4%) runs as an independent: 29.0 points carried forward (retention 0.39), held out of the swing","Dan Davies (independent 2024, 20.1%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"independent_incumbent","note":"Jordan Kealy (elected Conservative 2024 with 74.4%) left the caucus in March 2025 and runs as an independent. The NDP has no candidate (incomplete paperwork). Two-way race: Kealy v. Conservative Curtis Whitford.","v1":"v1.1: Kealy's 2024 share (74.4%, as a Conservative) is carried forward at the median retention of former party MLAs who ran as independents (0.39, so 29.0 points; log-normal spread, 90% range about 11-70 points), held out of the swing; the Conservative label keeps the rest. The NDP's share (no candidate) moves in proportion to the candidates who run.","why_it_may_matter":"High. An incumbent independent can win: Perry Trimper (NL 2021) kept more than his party share; most former party MLAs keep 15-50%."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"307","name":"Peace River South","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Larry Neufeld","share":69.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":69.8,"IND":24.6,"NDP":5.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":11.48,"CON":76.91,"ONEBC":3.36,"CENTRE":6.93,"OTH":1.32},"running":["NDP","CON","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Larry Neufeld","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9988,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0012,"CON":0.9988},"point":{"NDP":15.77,"CON":80.54,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.7},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":6.15,"median":15.73,"hi90":27.26},"CON":{"lo90":68.35,"median":80.37,"hi90":90.67},"OTH":{"lo90":0.22,"median":3.36,"hi90":9.29}},"baseline_moves":["Mike Bernier (independent 2024, 24.6%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Mike Bernier (ex-BC United MLA, CentreBC leader July-Sept 2026) took 24.6% as an independent in 2024; not running. His vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"308","name":"Penticton-Summerland","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Amelia Boultbee","share":41.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":41.4,"NDP":40.2,"IND":9.7,"GRN":5.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":39.42,"CON":48.8,"GRN":5.43,"ONEBC":2.07,"CENTRE":4.29},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Amelia Boultbee","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6645,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3352,"CON":0.6645,"GRN":0.0003},"point":{"NDP":41.01,"CON":47.39,"GRN":9.47,"ONEBC":2.13,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":26.46,"median":40.76,"hi90":55.56},"CON":{"lo90":32.44,"median":47.43,"hi90":62.1},"GRN":{"lo90":1.45,"median":9.24,"hi90":19.02},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.68,"hi90":6.92}},"baseline_moves":["Tracy St Claire (independent 2024) runs again as CON","Roger Harrington (independent 2024, 2.9%) not running: transferred","Anna Paddon (independent 2024, 0.5%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Amelia Boultbee (elected Conservative 2024) left the caucus in Oct 2025 and joined the NDP in July 2026; not running. OneBC runs Warren Hamm (former Conservative leadership candidate).","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: no incumbent; a OneBC candidate with a profile could split the Conservative vote."}]},{"id":"309","name":"Port Coquitlam","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Mike Farnworth","share":53.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":53.9,"CON":38.8,"GRN":6.4,"OTH":0.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":52.08,"CON":36.01,"GRN":6.33,"ONEBC":1.51,"CENTRE":3.12,"OTH":0.95},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Mike Farnworth","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8842,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8842,"CON":0.1152,"GRN":0.0006},"point":{"NDP":52.12,"CON":34.66,"GRN":10.18,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.04},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":37.98,"median":51.89,"hi90":65.2},"CON":{"lo90":21.83,"median":34.73,"hi90":48.09},"GRN":{"lo90":2.24,"median":9.94,"hi90":19.04},"OTH":{"lo90":0.04,"median":2.74,"hi90":7.72}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"310","name":"Port Moody-Burquitlam","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Rick Glumac","share":52.1},"shares_2024":{"NDP":52.1,"CON":40.5,"GRN":7.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":50.28,"CON":37.53,"GRN":7.36,"ONEBC":1.57,"CENTRE":3.26},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Rick Glumac","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8376,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8376,"CON":0.161,"GRN":0.0013,"CENTRE":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":50.2,"CON":35.45,"GRN":11.3,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":3.05,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":35.73,"median":50.07,"hi90":63.86},"CON":{"lo90":22.06,"median":35.5,"hi90":49.14},"GRN":{"lo90":2.71,"median":10.98,"hi90":20.43},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.75,"hi90":8.53}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"311","name":"Powell River-Sunshine Coast","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Randene Neill","share":49.6},"shares_2024":{"NDP":49.6,"CON":35.7,"GRN":13.5,"IND":1.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":48.31,"CON":33.9,"GRN":13.43,"ONEBC":1.42,"CENTRE":2.94},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Randene Neill","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.852,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.852,"CON":0.1377,"GRN":0.0103},"point":{"NDP":48.35,"CON":32.59,"GRN":19.05,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":34.14,"median":48.23,"hi90":62.16},"CON":{"lo90":19.73,"median":32.68,"hi90":46.22},"GRN":{"lo90":8.36,"median":18.88,"hi90":30.57}},"baseline_moves":["Greg Reid (independent 2024, 1.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"312","name":"Prince George-Mackenzie","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Kiel Giddens","share":60.9},"shares_2024":{"CON":60.9,"NDP":28.2,"GRN":8.5,"IND":2.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":27.46,"CON":56.57,"GRN":8.53,"ONEBC":2.43,"CENTRE":5.01},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Kiel Giddens","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9552,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0435,"CON":0.9552,"GRN":0.0013},"point":{"NDP":29.24,"CON":57.27,"GRN":13.49,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":15.81,"median":28.94,"hi90":42.93},"CON":{"lo90":42.62,"median":57.44,"hi90":71.79},"GRN":{"lo90":4.0,"median":13.19,"hi90":23.95}},"baseline_moves":["Rachael Weber (independent 2024, 2.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"313","name":"Prince George-North Cariboo","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Sheldon Clare","share":56.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":56.8,"IND":21.8,"NDP":17.0,"GRN":4.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":21.58,"CON":64.09,"GRN":5.85,"ONEBC":2.77,"CENTRE":5.72},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Sheldon Clare","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9905,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0092,"CON":0.9905,"GRN":0.0003},"point":{"NDP":23.82,"CON":65.93,"GRN":10.25,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":11.06,"median":23.39,"hi90":36.94},"CON":{"lo90":51.74,"median":66.12,"hi90":79.56},"GRN":{"lo90":1.89,"median":10.13,"hi90":19.99}},"baseline_moves":["Coralee Oakes (independent 2024, 21.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Coralee Oakes (ex-BC United MLA) took 21.8% as an independent in 2024; not running. Her vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"314","name":"Prince George-Valemount","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Rosalyn Bird","share":55.2},"shares_2024":{"CON":55.2,"NDP":34.9,"GRN":9.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":33.39,"CON":50.31,"GRN":9.73,"ONEBC":2.14,"CENTRE":4.43},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Rosalyn Bird","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8258,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1704,"CON":0.8258,"GRN":0.0037,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":34.56,"CON":48.41,"GRN":14.86,"ONEBC":2.18,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":20.4,"median":34.2,"hi90":48.22},"CON":{"lo90":33.99,"median":48.31,"hi90":63.07},"GRN":{"lo90":4.7,"median":14.65,"hi90":25.67},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.8,"hi90":7.1}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Rosalyn Bird: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."}]},{"id":"315","name":"Richmond-Bridgeport","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Teresa Wat","share":58.2},"shares_2024":{"CON":58.2,"NDP":34.8,"GRN":3.2,"IND":3.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":34.21,"CON":55.37,"GRN":3.17,"ONEBC":2.37,"CENTRE":4.89},"running":["NDP","CON"],"incumbent":{"name":"Teresa Wat","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8746,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1254,"CON":0.8746},"point":{"NDP":41.29,"CON":58.71,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":28.32,"median":41.22,"hi90":54.62},"CON":{"lo90":45.38,"median":58.78,"hi90":71.68}},"baseline_moves":["Glynnis Hoi Sum Chan (independent 2024, 3.0%) not running: transferred","Charlie Smith (independent 2024, 0.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Teresa Wat: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"316","name":"Richmond Centre","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Hon Chan","share":52.0},"shares_2024":{"CON":52.0,"NDP":36.8,"IND":3.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":37.82,"CON":53.8,"GRN":0.79,"ONEBC":2.29,"CENTRE":4.74,"OTH":0.56},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Hon Chan","party_at_dissolution":"IND","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8396,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1604,"CON":0.8396},"point":{"NDP":39.55,"CON":54.16,"GRN":3.54,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.75},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":26.3,"median":39.34,"hi90":52.13},"CON":{"lo90":40.41,"median":54.06,"hi90":67.27},"GRN":{"lo90":0.27,"median":3.18,"hi90":10.0},"OTH":{"lo90":0.06,"median":2.47,"hi90":7.44}},"baseline_moves":["Wendy Yuan (independent 2024, 6.3%) not running: transferred","Dickens Cheung (independent 2024, 3.4%) not running: transferred","Sunny Ho (independent 2024, 1.5%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Hon Chan (elected Conservative 2024, removed from caucus March 2026) is not on the ballot.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: loss of incumbent."}]},{"id":"317","name":"Richmond-Queensborough","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Steve Kooner","share":50.9},"shares_2024":{"CON":50.9,"NDP":44.1,"IND":1.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":43.55,"CON":49.62,"GRN":0.37,"ONEBC":2.1,"CENTRE":4.36},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Steve Kooner","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6336,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3664,"CON":0.6336},"point":{"NDP":46.11,"CON":50.88,"GRN":3.01,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.48,"median":45.93,"hi90":59.27},"CON":{"lo90":37.17,"median":50.83,"hi90":64.24},"GRN":{"lo90":0.19,"median":2.58,"hi90":9.12}},"baseline_moves":["Cindy Wu (independent 2024, 3.7%) not running: transferred","Errol E. Povah (independent 2024, 1.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"318","name":"Richmond-Steveston","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Kelly Greene","share":44.3},"shares_2024":{"NDP":44.3,"CON":42.2,"IND":10.1,"GRN":3.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.34,"CON":43.11,"GRN":3.4,"ONEBC":1.82,"CENTRE":6.96,"OTH":0.37},"running":["NDP","CON","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Kelly Greene","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.656,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.656,"CON":0.3436,"CENTRE":0.0004},"point":{"NDP":47.8,"CON":42.05,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":7.45,"OTH":2.7},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":33.98,"median":47.68,"hi90":60.69},"CON":{"lo90":28.92,"median":42.04,"hi90":55.49},"CENTRE":{"lo90":1.34,"median":7.17,"hi90":14.43},"OTH":{"lo90":0.22,"median":2.4,"hi90":7.25}},"baseline_moves":["Jackie Lee (independent 2024, 10.1%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Kelly Greene (NDP) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate: loss of incumbent (The Writ docks a party 3-4 points when its incumbent leaves)."},{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Jackie Lee took 10.1% as an independent in 2024; not running. Her vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"319","name":"Saanich North and the Islands","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"GRN","name":"Rob Botterell","share":36.2},"shares_2024":{"GRN":36.2,"NDP":32.2,"CON":29.8,"IND":1.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":31.45,"CON":28.43,"GRN":35.88,"ONEBC":1.19,"CENTRE":3.05},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Rob Botterell","party_at_dissolution":"GRN","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"GRN","prob":0.7847,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1394,"CON":0.0759,"GRN":0.7847},"point":{"NDP":28.89,"CON":24.38,"GRN":44.1,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":2.63,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":14.57,"median":28.48,"hi90":43.55},"CON":{"lo90":11.63,"median":24.56,"hi90":39.18},"GRN":{"lo90":28.03,"median":43.53,"hi90":58.57},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.25,"hi90":8.23}},"baseline_moves":["Amy Haysom (independent 2024, 1.9%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"green_seat","note":"One of the Greens' two 2024 seats. Rob Botterell (Green MLA) is not running; Green leader Emily Lowan is the candidate. CentreBC also runs.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"High. The Green hold depends on the candidate and on NDP-Green tactical voting, neither of which is modelled; the riding is close to a three-way contest."}]},{"id":"320","name":"Saanich South","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Lana Popham","share":49.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":49.8,"CON":32.4,"GRN":17.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":48.24,"CON":30.25,"GRN":17.63,"ONEBC":1.26,"CENTRE":2.62},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Lana Popham","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8621,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8621,"CON":0.0983,"GRN":0.0396},"point":{"NDP":47.56,"CON":28.49,"GRN":23.96,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.32,"median":47.42,"hi90":62.08},"CON":{"lo90":15.63,"median":28.73,"hi90":43.03},"GRN":{"lo90":10.95,"median":23.5,"hi90":36.89}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Lana Popham (NDP) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate: loss of incumbent (The Writ docks a party 3-4 points when its incumbent leaves)."}]},{"id":"321","name":"Salmon Arm-Shuswap","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"David L. Williams","share":52.1},"shares_2024":{"CON":52.1,"NDP":30.4,"IND":9.2,"GRN":7.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":30.83,"CON":51.67,"GRN":7.5,"ONEBC":2.21,"CENTRE":7.79},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"David Williams","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8715,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1262,"CON":0.8715,"GRN":0.0018,"ONEBC":0.0001,"CENTRE":0.0004},"point":{"NDP":30.66,"CON":47.98,"GRN":11.57,"ONEBC":2.26,"CENTRE":7.53,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":16.23,"median":30.3,"hi90":44.48},"CON":{"lo90":33.24,"median":48.04,"hi90":63.06},"GRN":{"lo90":2.4,"median":11.26,"hi90":21.74},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.87,"hi90":7.28},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.48,"median":7.15,"hi90":15.52}},"baseline_moves":["Greg McCune (independent 2024, 9.2%) not running: transferred","Sherry Roy (independent 2024, 1.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"322","name":"Skeena","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Claire RattÃ©e","share":51.2},"shares_2024":{"CON":51.2,"NDP":44.4,"GRN":3.3,"OTH":1.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":42.63,"CON":46.95,"GRN":3.29,"ONEBC":1.99,"CENTRE":4.12,"OTH":1.03},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Claire Rattée","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.535,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4644,"CON":0.535,"GRN":0.0006},"point":{"NDP":44.92,"CON":46.22,"GRN":6.8,"ONEBC":2.07,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":29.75,"median":44.68,"hi90":58.96},"CON":{"lo90":31.48,"median":46.14,"hi90":60.86},"GRN":{"lo90":0.53,"median":6.48,"hi90":15.61},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.65,"hi90":7.12}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Claire Rattée: left or was removed from the Conservative caucus in September 2026 and returned on 2026-09-21; Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low."}]},{"id":"323","name":"Surrey City Centre","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Amna Shah","share":46.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":46.7,"CON":45.1,"GRN":6.1,"IND":1.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":45.13,"CON":42.03,"GRN":6.02,"ONEBC":1.77,"CENTRE":4.03,"OTH":1.02},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Amna Shah","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7549,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7549,"CON":0.2451},"point":{"NDP":51.61,"CON":41.09,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":2.13,"CENTRE":5.17,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":37.56,"median":51.38,"hi90":64.66},"CON":{"lo90":27.6,"median":41.01,"hi90":54.64},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.18,"median":1.83,"hi90":6.32},"CENTRE":{"lo90":1.12,"median":4.93,"hi90":11.07}},"baseline_moves":["Saeed Naguib (independent 2024, 1.1%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"324","name":"Surrey-Cloverdale","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Elenore Sturko","share":48.3},"shares_2024":{"CON":48.3,"NDP":45.6,"GRN":5.4,"OTH":0.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":43.77,"CON":44.41,"GRN":5.34,"ONEBC":1.88,"CENTRE":3.89,"OTH":0.72},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Elenore Sturko","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":true,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5792,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5792,"CON":0.42,"GRN":0.0006,"CENTRE":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":44.17,"CON":41.3,"GRN":8.88,"ONEBC":1.94,"CENTRE":3.72,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":29.7,"median":44.05,"hi90":57.9},"CON":{"lo90":27.53,"median":41.18,"hi90":55.22},"GRN":{"lo90":1.31,"median":8.56,"hi90":17.53},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.57,"hi90":6.21},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.45,"hi90":9.47}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_moved","note":"Elenore Sturko (MLA, elected Conservative 2024) is running in Surrey South instead; open seat.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: loss of incumbent."}]},{"id":"325","name":"Surrey-Fleetwood","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Jagrup Brar","share":48.6},"shares_2024":{"NDP":48.6,"CON":44.9,"GRN":6.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":46.81,"CON":41.43,"GRN":6.4,"ONEBC":1.74,"CENTRE":3.61},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jagrup Brar","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.727,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.727,"CON":0.2718,"GRN":0.0012},"point":{"NDP":46.74,"CON":37.95,"GRN":10.12,"ONEBC":1.78,"CENTRE":3.41,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.26,"median":46.56,"hi90":60.16},"CON":{"lo90":24.4,"median":37.79,"hi90":51.48},"GRN":{"lo90":1.94,"median":9.77,"hi90":19.29},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.45,"hi90":5.92},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.18,"hi90":8.96}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"326","name":"Surrey-Guildford","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Garry Begg","share":46.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":46.9,"CON":46.8,"GRN":4.3,"IND":1.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":45.58,"CON":44.19,"GRN":4.41,"ONEBC":1.86,"CENTRE":3.86,"OTH":0.1},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Garry Begg","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5763,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5763,"CON":0.4231,"GRN":0.0006},"point":{"NDP":46.39,"CON":43.45,"GRN":7.94,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.22},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.09,"median":46.08,"hi90":59.72},"CON":{"lo90":30.05,"median":43.49,"hi90":56.89},"GRN":{"lo90":1.18,"median":7.71,"hi90":15.73},"OTH":{"lo90":0.02,"median":1.89,"hi90":6.66}},"baseline_moves":["Kabir Qurban (independent 2024, 1.9%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"327","name":"Surrey-Newton","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Jessie Sunner","share":51.2},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.2,"CON":43.0,"OTH":2.4,"IND":2.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":49.93,"CON":41.22,"ONEBC":1.73,"CENTRE":4.72,"OTH":2.39},"running":["NDP","CON","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jessie Sunner","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7856,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7856,"CON":0.2144},"point":{"NDP":53.55,"CON":41.48,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":4.97,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":39.6,"median":53.53,"hi90":67.44},"CON":{"lo90":27.52,"median":41.31,"hi90":55.32},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.31,"median":4.74,"hi90":11.16}},"baseline_moves":["Japreet Lehal (independent 2024, 2.2%) not running: transferred","Joginder Singh Randhawa (independent 2024, 1.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"328","name":"Surrey North","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Mandeep Dhaliwal","share":50.7},"shares_2024":{"CON":50.7,"NDP":43.3,"GRN":4.2,"OTH":1.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":41.65,"CON":46.77,"GRN":4.2,"ONEBC":1.98,"CENTRE":4.34,"OTH":1.06},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Mandeep Dhaliwal","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5502,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4493,"CON":0.5502,"GRN":0.0004,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":41.02,"CON":42.59,"GRN":7.23,"ONEBC":2.0,"CENTRE":4.07,"OTH":3.1},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":27.15,"median":40.73,"hi90":54.22},"CON":{"lo90":28.82,"median":42.64,"hi90":55.89},"GRN":{"lo90":0.37,"median":6.86,"hi90":14.97},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.68,"hi90":6.11},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.8,"hi90":9.9},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.85,"hi90":8.1}},"baseline_moves":["Hobby Nijjar (independent 2024, 0.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"329","name":"Surrey-Panorama","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Bryan Tepper","share":49.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":49.6,"NDP":48.1,"OTH":2.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":46.21,"CON":45.58,"ONEBC":1.93,"CENTRE":3.99,"OTH":2.29},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Bryan Tepper","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5645,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5645,"CON":0.4355},"point":{"NDP":48.38,"CON":45.65,"GRN":2.03,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":3.94,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":33.62,"median":47.94,"hi90":61.67},"CON":{"lo90":31.56,"median":45.65,"hi90":59.55},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.58,"hi90":8.23},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.6,"hi90":9.82}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"330","name":"Surrey-Serpentine River","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Linda Hepner","share":49.7},"shares_2024":{"CON":49.7,"NDP":47.5,"IND":2.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":46.09,"CON":46.83,"ONEBC":1.98,"CENTRE":4.99,"OTH":0.1},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Linda Hepner","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5964,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5964,"CON":0.4036},"point":{"NDP":47.15,"CON":43.55,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":2.08,"CENTRE":5.01,"OTH":2.22},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":33.09,"median":46.84,"hi90":60.18},"CON":{"lo90":29.74,"median":43.23,"hi90":56.97},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.74,"hi90":6.39},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.35,"median":4.81,"hi90":11.37},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.94,"hi90":6.76}},"baseline_moves":["Jim McMurtry (independent 2024, 2.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Linda Hepner (elected Conservative 2024) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"331","name":"Surrey South","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Brent Chapman","share":58.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":58.8,"NDP":41.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":39.35,"CON":53.64,"ONEBC":2.28,"CENTRE":4.73},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Brent Chapman","party_at_dissolution":"ONEBC","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8058,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1941,"CON":0.8058,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":39.51,"CON":51.86,"GRN":1.94,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":4.51,"OTH":2.18},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":25.44,"median":39.02,"hi90":52.4},"CON":{"lo90":37.67,"median":51.82,"hi90":64.96},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.57,"hi90":7.8},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.25,"hi90":10.66},"OTH":{"lo90":0.03,"median":1.84,"hi90":6.7}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"new_party_leader","note":"Elenore Sturko (CentreBC leader; MLA for Surrey-Cloverdale, elected Conservative 2024) runs here. Brent Chapman (elected Conservative 2024 with 58.8%, crossed to OneBC on 2026-09-22) is not on the ballot.","v1":"Not adjusted in the default; seeded in the sensitivity run.","why_it_may_matter":"High. A party leader and sitting MLA could take far more than CentreBC's provincial share. The 'seeded' sensitivity adds 7.5 points."}]},{"id":"332","name":"Surrey-White Rock","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Trevor Halford","share":52.3},"shares_2024":{"CON":52.3,"NDP":45.3,"OTH":2.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":43.43,"CON":47.94,"ONEBC":2.03,"CENTRE":4.21,"OTH":2.39},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Trevor Halford","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5335,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4664,"CON":0.5335,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":43.29,"CON":44.21,"GRN":1.94,"ONEBC":2.07,"CENTRE":3.99,"OTH":4.5},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":28.73,"median":42.81,"hi90":56.26},"CON":{"lo90":30.39,"median":44.16,"hi90":57.49},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.55,"hi90":7.71},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.75,"hi90":6.24},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.68,"hi90":9.77},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.27,"hi90":9.76}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Trevor Halford: left or was removed from the Conservative caucus in September 2026 and returned on 2026-09-21; Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low."}]},{"id":"333","name":"Vancouver-Fraserview","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"George Chow","share":57.2},"shares_2024":{"NDP":57.2,"CON":36.6,"GRN":6.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":55.39,"CON":34.1,"GRN":6.14,"ONEBC":1.42,"CENTRE":2.95},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"George Chow","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9304,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9304,"CON":0.069,"GRN":0.0006},"point":{"NDP":56.44,"CON":33.43,"GRN":10.13,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":42.19,"median":56.37,"hi90":69.58},"CON":{"lo90":20.77,"median":33.46,"hi90":46.99},"GRN":{"lo90":2.19,"median":9.85,"hi90":18.92}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"George Chow (NDP) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate: loss of incumbent (The Writ docks a party 3-4 points when its incumbent leaves)."}]},{"id":"334","name":"Vancouver-Hastings","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Niki Sharma","share":64.1},"shares_2024":{"NDP":64.1,"CON":24.3,"GRN":10.9,"IND":0.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":62.77,"CON":23.23,"GRN":10.81,"ONEBC":0.96,"CENTRE":2.2,"OTH":0.02},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Niki Sharma","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9878,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9878,"CON":0.0093,"GRN":0.0029},"point":{"NDP":60.53,"CON":20.33,"GRN":15.15,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":1.94,"OTH":2.05},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":46.27,"median":60.16,"hi90":72.9},"CON":{"lo90":9.57,"median":20.35,"hi90":32.63},"GRN":{"lo90":5.28,"median":14.83,"hi90":25.31},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.6,"hi90":6.51},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.71,"hi90":6.43}},"baseline_moves":["Zsolt Kiss (independent 2024, 0.7%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"335","name":"Vancouver-Kensington","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Mable Elmore","share":60.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":60.9,"CON":31.5,"GRN":7.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":59.2,"CON":29.52,"GRN":7.52,"ONEBC":1.22,"CENTRE":2.54},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Mable Elmore","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9724,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9724,"CON":0.027,"GRN":0.0006},"point":{"NDP":59.78,"CON":28.46,"GRN":11.76,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":45.75,"median":59.52,"hi90":72.8},"CON":{"lo90":16.74,"median":28.54,"hi90":42.07},"GRN":{"lo90":3.21,"median":11.49,"hi90":21.12}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"336","name":"Vancouver-Langara","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Sunita Dhir","share":48.4},"shares_2024":{"NDP":48.4,"CON":46.0,"GRN":5.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":46.62,"CON":42.44,"GRN":5.45,"ONEBC":1.79,"CENTRE":3.7},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Sunita Dhir","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.6648,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.6648,"CON":0.3349,"GRN":0.0003},"point":{"NDP":46.88,"CON":40.67,"GRN":8.94,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":3.51,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.51,"median":46.83,"hi90":60.54},"CON":{"lo90":27.08,"median":40.66,"hi90":54.65},"GRN":{"lo90":1.38,"median":8.68,"hi90":17.66},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.2,"hi90":8.99}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"337","name":"Vancouver-Little Mountain","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Christine Boyle","share":62.1},"shares_2024":{"NDP":62.1,"CON":30.6,"GRN":7.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":60.42,"CON":28.7,"GRN":7.22,"ONEBC":1.19,"CENTRE":2.47},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Christine Boyle","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.979,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.979,"CON":0.0204,"GRN":0.0006},"point":{"NDP":61.0,"CON":27.62,"GRN":11.38,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":46.93,"median":60.86,"hi90":73.94},"CON":{"lo90":15.71,"median":27.72,"hi90":40.8},"GRN":{"lo90":3.08,"median":11.1,"hi90":20.62}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"338","name":"Vancouver-Point Grey","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"David Eby","share":56.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":56.8,"CON":34.5,"GRN":8.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":55.05,"CON":32.19,"GRN":8.63,"ONEBC":1.34,"CENTRE":2.78},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"David Eby","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.943,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.943,"CON":0.0557,"GRN":0.0013},"point":{"NDP":54.67,"CON":29.92,"GRN":12.85,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":2.56,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":40.09,"median":54.51,"hi90":68.35},"CON":{"lo90":17.35,"median":29.95,"hi90":42.95},"GRN":{"lo90":3.56,"median":12.53,"hi90":22.7},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.23,"hi90":7.56}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"leader_seat","note":"NDP leader David Eby.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low (safe seats)."}]},{"id":"339","name":"Vancouver-Quilchena","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Dallas Brodie","share":51.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":51.6,"NDP":38.9,"GRN":7.8,"IND":1.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":37.57,"CON":47.89,"GRN":7.76,"ONEBC":2.03,"CENTRE":4.75},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Dallas Brodie","party_at_dissolution":"ONEBC","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6864,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3122,"CON":0.6864,"GRN":0.0014},"point":{"NDP":37.37,"CON":44.17,"GRN":11.86,"ONEBC":2.07,"CENTRE":4.52,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":23.52,"median":37.12,"hi90":50.91},"CON":{"lo90":29.9,"median":44.1,"hi90":58.3},"GRN":{"lo90":3.22,"median":11.52,"hi90":21.22},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.74,"hi90":6.43},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.27,"hi90":10.76}},"baseline_moves":["Caroline Ying-Mei Wang (independent 2024, 1.7%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"new_party_leader","note":"Dallas Brodie (OneBC interim leader; elected Conservative 2024 with 51.6%) runs again for OneBC against a new Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in the default; seeded in the sensitivity run.","why_it_may_matter":"High. Splits the right-of-centre vote in a seat the Conservatives won narrowly in 2024; a sitting MLA's personal vote is not in the model. The 'seeded' sensitivity adds 15 points."}]},{"id":"340","name":"Vancouver-Renfrew","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Adrian Dix","share":63.2},"shares_2024":{"NDP":63.2,"CON":30.7,"GRN":6.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":61.5,"CON":28.76,"GRN":6.07,"ONEBC":1.19,"CENTRE":2.48},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Adrian Dix","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9786,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9786,"CON":0.0209,"GRN":0.0005},"point":{"NDP":61.43,"CON":26.63,"GRN":9.66,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":2.28,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":46.8,"median":61.17,"hi90":74.36},"CON":{"lo90":14.14,"median":26.68,"hi90":39.72},"GRN":{"lo90":1.67,"median":9.43,"hi90":18.54},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.94,"hi90":7.11}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"341","name":"Vancouver-South Granville","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Brenda Bailey","share":64.3},"shares_2024":{"NDP":64.3,"CON":25.0,"GRN":10.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":62.8,"CON":23.56,"GRN":10.66,"ONEBC":0.97,"CENTRE":2.02},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Brenda Bailey","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9912,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9912,"CON":0.0069,"GRN":0.0019},"point":{"NDP":61.71,"CON":20.24,"GRN":15.27,"ONEBC":0.97,"CENTRE":1.8,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":46.97,"median":61.41,"hi90":74.66},"CON":{"lo90":8.78,"median":20.08,"hi90":32.7},"GRN":{"lo90":5.43,"median":15.07,"hi90":25.72},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.6,"hi90":4.39},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.47,"hi90":6.37}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Brenda Bailey (NDP) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate: loss of incumbent (The Writ docks a party 3-4 points when its incumbent leaves)."}]},{"id":"342","name":"Vancouver-Strathcona","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Joan Phillip","share":68.2},"shares_2024":{"NDP":68.2,"CON":17.1,"GRN":13.1,"OTH":1.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":66.97,"CON":16.32,"GRN":12.99,"ONEBC":0.66,"CENTRE":1.39,"OTH":1.67},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Vacant","party_at_dissolution":null,"not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":"vacant"},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9942,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9942,"CON":0.0026,"GRN":0.0032},"point":{"NDP":64.44,"CON":14.12,"GRN":17.82,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.62},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":50.23,"median":64.18,"hi90":76.59},"CON":{"lo90":4.82,"median":14.22,"hi90":25.32},"GRN":{"lo90":7.57,"median":17.54,"hi90":28.87},"OTH":{"lo90":0.04,"median":3.44,"hi90":8.54}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"vacant","note":"Vacant: Joan Phillip (NDP) died 2026-08-28; no by-election. NDP candidate Amanda Burrows.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low (safe NDP seat)."}]},{"id":"343","name":"Vancouver-West End","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Spencer Chandra Herbert","share":63.0},"shares_2024":{"NDP":63.0,"CON":27.2,"GRN":9.1,"IND":0.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":61.59,"CON":26.04,"GRN":9.06,"ONEBC":1.07,"CENTRE":2.24},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Spencer Chandra Herbert","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9829,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9829,"CON":0.0154,"GRN":0.0017},"point":{"NDP":61.7,"CON":24.7,"GRN":13.6,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":47.46,"median":61.51,"hi90":74.69},"CON":{"lo90":13.43,"median":24.82,"hi90":37.57},"GRN":{"lo90":4.48,"median":13.32,"hi90":23.29}},"baseline_moves":["Carl Turnbull (independent 2024, 0.7%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"344","name":"Vancouver-Yaletown","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Terry Yung","share":49.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":49.8,"CON":43.4,"GRN":6.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":47.97,"CON":40.05,"GRN":6.81,"ONEBC":1.68,"CENTRE":3.49},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Terry Yung","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7471,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7471,"CON":0.2523,"GRN":0.0006},"point":{"NDP":48.01,"CON":38.08,"GRN":10.63,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":3.28,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":33.86,"median":47.76,"hi90":61.41},"CON":{"lo90":24.81,"median":38.19,"hi90":51.84},"GRN":{"lo90":2.51,"median":10.34,"hi90":19.72},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.94,"hi90":8.76}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"345","name":"Vernon-Lumby","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Harwinder Sandhu","share":42.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":42.7,"CON":41.0,"IND":15.4,"OTH":1.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":40.85,"CON":51.48,"ONEBC":2.19,"CENTRE":4.53,"OTH":0.95},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Harwinder Sandhu","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6928,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.307,"CON":0.6928,"GRN":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":43.68,"CON":51.44,"GRN":2.58,"ONEBC":2.3,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":28.18,"median":42.99,"hi90":57.44},"CON":{"lo90":36.86,"median":51.24,"hi90":65.92},"GRN":{"lo90":0.1,"median":2.26,"hi90":9.83},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.88,"hi90":7.31}},"baseline_moves":["Kevin Acton (independent 2024) runs again as CON"],"notes":[{"type":"returning_candidate","note":"Kevin Acton took 15.4% as an independent in 2024 and is the 2026 Conservative candidate (assumed the same person); v1 moves his 2024 vote to the Conservatives.","v1":"His 2024 votes are assigned to the Conservatives (rule: a returning candidate keeps their vote).","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: if his 2024 voters do not follow him, the Conservative share is overstated."}]},{"id":"346","name":"Victoria-Beacon Hill","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Grace Lore","share":47.4},"shares_2024":{"NDP":47.4,"GRN":33.5,"CON":19.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":46.32,"CON":18.11,"GRN":33.28,"ONEBC":0.74,"CENTRE":1.55},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Grace Lore","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5573,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5573,"CON":0.0078,"GRN":0.4349},"point":{"NDP":43.26,"CON":15.46,"GRN":41.28,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":27.86,"median":43.05,"hi90":58.61},"CON":{"lo90":4.93,"median":15.82,"hi90":28.76},"GRN":{"lo90":25.06,"median":40.9,"hi90":55.59}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"notable_candidate","note":"The Conservatives dropped their candidate, Joachim Agou, on 2026-10-08 over social-media posts; he stays on the ballot as the Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low (safe NDP seat), but the Conservative share is likely overstated."}]},{"id":"347","name":"Victoria-Swan Lake","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Nina Krieger","share":56.0},"shares_2024":{"NDP":56.0,"GRN":23.2,"CON":20.2,"OTH":0.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":54.83,"CON":19.13,"GRN":23.01,"ONEBC":0.78,"CENTRE":1.63,"OTH":0.61},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Nina Krieger","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9203,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9203,"CON":0.0079,"GRN":0.0718},"point":{"NDP":52.92,"CON":16.98,"GRN":30.1,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":37.39,"median":52.56,"hi90":67.73},"CON":{"lo90":6.1,"median":17.35,"hi90":30.19},"GRN":{"lo90":15.65,"median":29.58,"hi90":43.93}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"348","name":"West Kelowna-Peachland","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Macklin McCall","share":50.9},"shares_2024":{"CON":50.9,"NDP":27.9,"IND":21.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":31.88,"CON":58.81,"GRN":1.57,"ONEBC":2.52,"CENTRE":5.21},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Macklin McCall","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9458,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0541,"CON":0.9458,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":34.47,"CON":60.83,"GRN":4.7,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":20.64,"median":34.09,"hi90":48.05},"CON":{"lo90":46.5,"median":60.75,"hi90":74.56},"GRN":{"lo90":0.34,"median":4.32,"hi90":12.33}},"baseline_moves":["Stephen Johnston (independent 2024, 21.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Stephen Johnston took 21.2% as an independent in 2024; not running. His vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"349","name":"West Vancouver-Capilano","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Lynne Block","share":46.7},"shares_2024":{"CON":46.7,"NDP":27.1,"IND":20.6,"GRN":5.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":31.04,"CON":54.77,"GRN":7.0,"ONEBC":2.34,"CENTRE":4.84},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Lynne Block","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":true,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9202,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0788,"CON":0.9202,"GRN":0.001},"point":{"NDP":32.65,"CON":53.4,"GRN":11.55,"ONEBC":2.4,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":19.58,"median":32.47,"hi90":45.44},"CON":{"lo90":39.72,"median":53.42,"hi90":66.98},"GRN":{"lo90":3.12,"median":11.23,"hi90":21.06},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.05,"hi90":6.98}},"baseline_moves":["Karin Kirkpatrick (independent 2024, 20.6%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_moved","note":"Lynne Block (elected Conservative 2024) is running in North Vancouver-Seymour instead; open seat. In 2024 Karin Kirkpatrick (ex-BC United, later CentreBC founder) took 20.6% here as an independent; that vote is transferred.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: open seat; where Kirkpatrick's 2024 vote goes is an assumption."}]},{"id":"350","name":"West Vancouver-Sea to Sky","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"GRN","name":"Jeremy Valeriote","share":38.1},"shares_2024":{"GRN":38.1,"CON":35.6,"NDP":26.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":25.33,"CON":32.79,"GRN":37.63,"ONEBC":1.38,"CENTRE":2.86},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jeremy Valeriote","party_at_dissolution":"GRN","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"GRN","prob":0.8578,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0421,"CON":0.1001,"GRN":0.8578},"point":{"NDP":23.14,"CON":28.36,"GRN":46.04,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":2.45,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":11.2,"median":22.89,"hi90":36.08},"CON":{"lo90":15.95,"median":28.5,"hi90":42.21},"GRN":{"lo90":30.72,"median":45.72,"hi90":59.42},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.11,"hi90":7.34}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"green_seat","note":"The Greens' other 2024 seat. Jeremy Valeriote (Green MLA, interim leader 2025) runs again; CentreBC runs Dan Wood.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"High: Green incumbency is not modelled, so v1 probably understates the Green."}]}],"changes":{"from_file":"2026-09-15_angus-reid.json","average":{"NDP":0.15,"CON":0.22,"GRN":0.64,"ONEBC":0.04,"CENTRE":0.08,"OTH":-1.12},"seat_median":{"NDP":0.0,"CON":0.0,"GRN":1.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"p_majority":{"NDP":-0.0055,"CON":-0.0002,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"p_minority":0.0057,"leader_changes":[]},"average_series":{"NDP":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-25",null],["2024-11-01",null],["2024-11-08",null],["2024-11-15",null],["2024-11-22",null],["2024-11-29",null],["2024-12-06",null],["2024-12-13",null],["2024-12-20",null],["2024-12-27",null],["2025-01-03",null],["2025-01-10",null],["2025-01-17",null],["2025-01-24",null],["2025-01-31",45.64],["2025-02-07",45.81],["2025-02-14",45.9],["2025-02-21",45.88],["2025-02-28",45.77],["2025-03-07",45.58],["2025-03-14",45.36],["2025-03-21",45.13],["2025-03-28",44.95],["2025-04-04",44.85],["2025-04-11",44.84],["2025-04-18",44.84],["2025-04-25",44.79],["2025-05-02",44.69],["2025-05-09",44.53],["2025-05-16",44.3],["2025-05-23",44.02],["2025-05-30",43.69],["2025-06-06",43.34],["2025-06-13",42.98],["2025-06-20",42.64],["2025-06-27",42.34],["2025-07-04",42.07],["2025-07-11",41.86],["2025-07-18",41.7],["2025-07-25",41.67],["2025-08-01",41.82],["2025-08-08",42.11],["2025-08-15",42.41],["2025-08-22",42.71],["2025-08-29",43.05],["2025-09-05",43.41],["2025-09-12",43.75],["2025-09-19",44.03],["2025-09-26",44.22],["2025-10-03",44.31],["2025-10-10",44.29],["2025-10-17",44.17],["2025-10-24",43.93],["2025-10-31",43.6],["2025-11-07",43.21],["2025-11-14",42.87],["2025-11-21",42.63],["2025-11-28",42.49],["2025-12-05",42.42],["2025-12-12",42.38],["2025-12-19",42.36],["2025-12-26",42.37],["2026-01-02",42.4],["2026-01-09",42.41],["2026-01-16",42.31],["2026-01-23",42.04],["2026-01-30",41.66],["2026-02-06",41.26],["2026-02-13",40.9],["2026-02-20",40.61],["2026-02-27",40.4],["2026-03-06",40.29],["2026-03-13",40.24],["2026-03-20",40.23],["2026-03-27",40.19],["2026-04-03",40.07],["2026-04-10",39.85],["2026-04-17",39.55],["2026-04-24",39.26],["2026-05-01",39.07],["2026-05-08",39.06],["2026-05-15",39.23],["2026-05-22",39.46],["2026-05-29",39.65],["2026-06-05",39.8],["2026-06-12",39.96],["2026-06-19",40.23],["2026-06-26",40.66],["2026-07-03",41.21],["2026-07-10",41.7],["2026-07-17",41.96],["2026-07-24",42.02],["2026-07-31",41.98],["2026-08-07",41.92],["2026-08-14",41.93],["2026-08-21",42.02],["2026-08-28",42.19],["2026-09-04",42.41],["2026-09-11",42.61],["2026-09-18",42.76]],"CON":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-25",null],["2024-11-01",null],["2024-11-08",null],["2024-11-15",null],["2024-11-22",null],["2024-11-29",null],["2024-12-06",null],["2024-12-13",null],["2024-12-20",null],["2024-12-27",null],["2025-01-03",null],["2025-01-10",null],["2025-01-17",null],["2025-01-24",null],["2025-01-31",41.56],["2025-02-07",41.51],["2025-02-14",41.49],["2025-02-21",41.5],["2025-02-28",41.54],["2025-03-07",41.63],["2025-03-14",41.81],["2025-03-21",42.18],["2025-03-28",42.86],["2025-04-04",43.78],["2025-04-11",44.48],["2025-04-18",44.59],["2025-04-25",44.25],["2025-05-02",43.7],["2025-05-09",43.11],["2025-05-16",42.59],["2025-05-23",42.21],["2025-05-30",42.03],["2025-06-06",42.02],["2025-06-13",42.16],["2025-06-20",42.38],["2025-06-27",42.63],["2025-07-04",42.88],["2025-07-11",43.12],["2025-07-18",43.33],["2025-07-25",43.51],["2025-08-01",43.57],["2025-08-08",43.41],["2025-08-15",43.06],["2025-08-22",42.59],["2025-08-29",42.03],["2025-09-05",41.44],["2025-09-12",40.89],["2025-09-19",40.44],["2025-09-26",40.12],["2025-10-03",39.92],["2025-10-10",39.81],["2025-10-17",39.73],["2025-10-24",39.67],["2025-10-31",39.59],["2025-11-07",39.48],["2025-11-14",39.38],["2025-11-21",39.34],["2025-11-28",39.36],["2025-12-05",39.43],["2025-12-12",39.53],["2025-12-19",39.61],["2025-12-26",39.65],["2026-01-02",39.61],["2026-01-09",39.5],["2026-01-16",39.41],["2026-01-23",39.47],["2026-01-30",39.69],["2026-02-06",39.99],["2026-02-13",40.29],["2026-02-20",40.54],["2026-02-27",40.69],["2026-03-06",40.71],["2026-03-13",40.56],["2026-03-20",40.27],["2026-03-27",39.89],["2026-04-03",39.55],["2026-04-10",39.4],["2026-04-17",39.55],["2026-04-24",40.06],["2026-05-01",40.92],["2026-05-08",41.99],["2026-05-15",42.99],["2026-05-22",43.72],["2026-05-29",44.12],["2026-06-05",44.26],["2026-06-12",44.19],["2026-06-19",43.9],["2026-06-26",43.37],["2026-07-03",42.67],["2026-07-10",42.01],["2026-07-17",41.54],["2026-07-24",41.26],["2026-07-31",41.07],["2026-08-07",40.83],["2026-08-14",40.45],["2026-08-21",39.91],["2026-08-28",39.24],["2026-09-04",38.56],["2026-09-11",37.98],["2026-09-18",37.57]],"GRN":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-25",null],["2024-11-01",null],["2024-11-08",null],["2024-11-15",null],["2024-11-22",null],["2024-11-29",null],["2024-12-06",null],["2024-12-13",null],["2024-12-20",null],["2024-12-27",null],["2025-01-03",null],["2025-01-10",null],["2025-01-17",null],["2025-01-24",null],["2025-01-31",9.32],["2025-02-07",9.3],["2025-02-14",9.34],["2025-02-21",9.43],["2025-02-28",9.58],["2025-03-07",9.74],["2025-03-14",9.86],["2025-03-21",9.85],["2025-03-28",9.58],["2025-04-04",9.03],["2025-04-11",8.49],["2025-04-18",8.26],["2025-04-25",8.3],["2025-05-02",8.48],["2025-05-09",8.66],["2025-05-16",8.8],["2025-05-23",8.84],["2025-05-30",8.77],["2025-06-06",8.62],["2025-06-13",8.41],["2025-06-20",8.17],["2025-06-27",7.95],["2025-07-04",7.76],["2025-07-11",7.63],["2025-07-18",7.65],["2025-07-25",7.96],["2025-08-01",8.69],["2025-08-08",9.46],["2025-08-15",9.87],["2025-08-22",10.01],["2025-08-29",10.04],["2025-09-05",10.01],["2025-09-12",9.96],["2025-09-19",9.89],["2025-09-26",9.81],["2025-10-03",9.73],["2025-10-10",9.67],["2025-10-17",9.61],["2025-10-24",9.56],["2025-10-31",9.51],["2025-11-07",9.47],["2025-11-14",9.43],["2025-11-21",9.42],["2025-11-28",9.43],["2025-12-05",9.45],["2025-12-12",9.49],["2025-12-19",9.53],["2025-12-26",9.57],["2026-01-02",9.64],["2026-01-09",9.75],["2026-01-16",9.94],["2026-01-23",10.16],["2026-01-30",10.37],["2026-02-06",10.53],["2026-02-13",10.65],["2026-02-20",10.75],["2026-02-27",10.83],["2026-03-06",10.92],["2026-03-13",11.07],["2026-03-20",11.29],["2026-03-27",11.6],["2026-04-03",11.97],["2026-04-10",12.32],["2026-04-17",12.55],["2026-04-24",12.56],["2026-05-01",12.27],["2026-05-08",11.66],["2026-05-15",10.91],["2026-05-22",10.26],["2026-05-29",9.86],["2026-06-05",9.7],["2026-06-12",9.75],["2026-06-19",9.98],["2026-06-26",10.36],["2026-07-03",10.81],["2026-07-10",11.21],["2026-07-17",11.45],["2026-07-24",11.55],["2026-07-31",11.56],["2026-08-07",11.55],["2026-08-14",11.54],["2026-08-21",11.58],["2026-08-28",11.66],["2026-09-04",11.77],["2026-09-11",11.9],["2026-09-18",12.02]],"ONEBC":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-25",null],["2024-11-01",null],["2024-11-08",null],["2024-11-15",null],["2024-11-22",null],["2024-11-29",null],["2024-12-06",null],["2024-12-13",null],["2024-12-20",null],["2024-12-27",null],["2025-01-03",null],["2025-01-10",null],["2025-01-17",null],["2025-01-24",null],["2025-01-31",null],["2025-02-07",null],["2025-02-14",null],["2025-02-21",null],["2025-02-28",null],["2025-03-07",null],["2025-03-14",null],["2025-03-21",null],["2025-03-28",null],["2025-04-04",null],["2025-04-11",null],["2025-04-18",null],["2025-04-25",null],["2025-05-02",null],["2025-05-09",null],["2025-05-16",null],["2025-05-23",null],["2025-05-30",null],["2025-06-06",null],["2025-06-13",null],["2025-06-20",null],["2025-06-27",null],["2025-07-04",null],["2025-07-11",null],["2025-07-18",null],["2025-07-25",null],["2025-08-01",null],["2025-08-08",null],["2025-08-15",null],["2025-08-22",null],["2025-08-29",null],["2025-09-05",null],["2025-09-12",null],["2025-09-19",null],["2025-09-26",null],["2025-10-03",2.65],["2025-10-10",2.84],["2025-10-17",3.12],["2025-10-24",3.54],["2025-10-31",4.12],["2025-11-07",4.81],["2025-11-14",5.51],["2025-11-21",6.07],["2025-11-28",6.44],["2025-12-05",6.66],["2025-12-12",6.77],["2025-12-19",6.8],["2025-12-26",6.77],["2026-01-02",6.64],["2026-01-09",6.42],["2026-01-16",6.15],["2026-01-23",5.91],["2026-01-30",5.76],["2026-02-06",5.67],["2026-02-13",5.63],["2026-02-20",5.61],["2026-02-27",5.62],["2026-03-06",5.67],["2026-03-13",5.8],["2026-03-20",6.04],["2026-03-27",6.35],["2026-04-03",6.68],["2026-04-10",6.97],["2026-04-17",7.17],["2026-04-24",7.21],["2026-05-01",6.96],["2026-05-08",6.25],["2026-05-15",5.09],["2026-05-22",3.85],["2026-05-29",2.94],["2026-06-05",2.41],["2026-06-12",2.12],["2026-06-19",1.93],["2026-06-26",1.75],["2026-07-03",1.58],["2026-07-10",1.46],["2026-07-17",1.41],["2026-07-24",1.39],["2026-07-31",1.39],["2026-08-07",1.4],["2026-08-14",1.43],["2026-08-21",1.46],["2026-08-28",1.52],["2026-09-04",1.6],["2026-09-11",1.68],["2026-09-18",1.77]],"CENTRE":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-25",null],["2024-11-01",null],["2024-11-08",null],["2024-11-15",null],["2024-11-22",null],["2024-11-29",null],["2024-12-06",null],["2024-12-13",null],["2024-12-20",null],["2024-12-27",null],["2025-01-03",null],["2025-01-10",null],["2025-01-17",null],["2025-01-24",null],["2025-01-31",null],["2025-02-07",null],["2025-02-14",null],["2025-02-21",null],["2025-02-28",null],["2025-03-07",null],["2025-03-14",null],["2025-03-21",null],["2025-03-28",null],["2025-04-04",null],["2025-04-11",null],["2025-04-18",null],["2025-04-25",null],["2025-05-02",null],["2025-05-09",null],["2025-05-16",null],["2025-05-23",null],["2025-05-30",null],["2025-06-06",null],["2025-06-13",null],["2025-06-20",null],["2025-06-27",null],["2025-07-04",null],["2025-07-11",null],["2025-07-18",null],["2025-07-25",null],["2025-08-01",null],["2025-08-08",null],["2025-08-15",null],["2025-08-22",null],["2025-08-29",null],["2025-09-05",null],["2025-09-12",null],["2025-09-19",null],["2025-09-26",null],["2025-10-03",2.49],["2025-10-10",2.38],["2025-10-17",2.27],["2025-10-24",2.16],["2025-10-31",2.05],["2025-11-07",1.97],["2025-11-14",1.91],["2025-11-21",1.89],["2025-11-28",null],["2025-12-05",null],["2025-12-12",null],["2025-12-19",null],["2025-12-26",null],["2026-01-02",null],["2026-01-09",null],["2026-01-16",null],["2026-01-23",null],["2026-01-30",null],["2026-02-06",null],["2026-02-13",null],["2026-02-20",null],["2026-02-27",null],["2026-03-06",null],["2026-03-13",null],["2026-03-20",null],["2026-03-27",null],["2026-04-03",null],["2026-04-10",null],["2026-04-17",null],["2026-04-24",null],["2026-05-01",null],["2026-05-08",null],["2026-05-15",null],["2026-05-22",null],["2026-05-29",null],["2026-06-05",2.93],["2026-06-12",2.84],["2026-06-19",2.65],["2026-06-26",2.35],["2026-07-03",2.05],["2026-07-10",1.9],["2026-07-17",1.9],["2026-07-24",1.99],["2026-07-31",2.13],["2026-08-07",2.3],["2026-08-14",2.5],["2026-08-21",2.72],["2026-08-28",2.97],["2026-09-04",3.22],["2026-09-11",3.46],["2026-09-18",3.66]]},"file":"2026-09-18_innovative-research.json","publication":{"date":"2026-09-18","path":"by-date/2026-09-18.json","snapshots_that_day":["2026-09-18_innovative-research.json"],"new_polls":[{"date":"2026-09-18","firm":"Innovative Research","sample":500,"values":{"NDP":43,"CON":39,"GRN":14}}],"previous_date":"2026-09-15","changes":{"from_date":"2026-09-15","from_file":"2026-09-15_angus-reid.json","average":{"NDP":0.15,"CON":0.22,"GRN":0.64,"ONEBC":0.04,"CENTRE":0.08,"OTH":-1.12},"seat_median":{"NDP":0.0,"CON":0.0,"GRN":1.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"p_majority":{"NDP":-0.0055,"CON":-0.0002,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"p_minority":0.0057,"leader_changes":[]}}}