{"title":"British Columbia 2026 seat projection","label":"Projection, not a poll.","version":"bc-shadow-v1","generated":"2026-10-10T05:16:58+00:00","backfilled":true,"as_of":"2026-09-15","freeze_at":"2026-10-23 23:59:59 America/Vancouver (PDT, UTC-7)","data_window":{"from":"2024-10-20","to":"2026-09-15","rule":"Polls dated after the 2024 election, up to the newest poll; kernel weights as on the site."},"poll_set_hash":"476de99a72e6caf2","polls_used":[{"date":"2025-01-26","firm":"Leger","sample":1001,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":42,"GRN":10},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-02-15","firm":"Pallas Data","sample":677,"values":{"NDP":48.8,"CON":40.7,"GRN":7.6},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-03-05","firm":"Research Co.","sample":802,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":42,"GRN":11},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-05-04","firm":"Liaison Strategies","sample":800,"values":{"NDP":45,"CON":47,"GRN":7},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-05-25","firm":"Leger","sample":1032,"values":{"NDP":45,"CON":39,"GRN":11},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-06-09","firm":"Research Co.","sample":803,"values":{"NDP":43,"CON":42,"GRN":8,"ONEBC":1,"CENTRE":2},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-06-24","firm":"Mainstreet Research","sample":943,"values":{"NDP":41,"CON":44,"GRN":7},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-09-05","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":811,"values":{"NDP":42,"CON":44,"GRN":10},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-10-03","firm":"Research Co.","sample":801,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":38,"GRN":12,"ONEBC":1,"CENTRE":3},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-10-06","firm":"Cardinal Research","sample":1088,"values":{"NDP":42.5,"CON":41.3,"GRN":10,"ONEBC":3.8},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-10-12","firm":"Leger","sample":1035,"values":{"NDP":48,"CON":38,"GRN":8},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-10-15","firm":"Abacus Data","sample":1000,"values":{"NDP":47,"CON":40,"GRN":8,"ONEBC":1,"CENTRE":3},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-10-25","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":1044,"values":{"NDP":40,"CON":41,"GRN":11,"ONEBC":5,"CENTRE":1},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-11-25","firm":"EKOS","sample":889,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":35,"GRN":9,"ONEBC":8,"CENTRE":2},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-11-25","firm":"Yorkville Strategies","sample":600,"values":{"NDP":40,"CON":42,"GRN":8,"ONEBC":5},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-12-01","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":463,"values":{"NDP":43,"CON":40,"GRN":11},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-12-13","firm":"Pallas Data","sample":923,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":39,"GRN":9,"ONEBC":7},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-12-18","firm":"Mainstreet Research","sample":1902,"values":{"NDP":41,"CON":41,"GRN":10,"ONEBC":7},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-01-26","firm":"Leger","sample":1003,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":38,"GRN":9,"ONEBC":6},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-02-09","firm":"Leger","sample":1007,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":39,"GRN":9,"ONEBC":5},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-02-14","firm":"Pallas Data","sample":988,"values":{"NDP":42,"CON":37,"GRN":13,"ONEBC":6},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-02-24","firm":"One Persuasion","sample":1005,"values":{"NDP":37,"CON":41,"GRN":11,"ONEBC":6},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-02-27","firm":"Pallas Data","sample":1256,"values":{"NDP":42,"CON":40,"GRN":11,"ONEBC":5},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-03-03","firm":"Innovative Research","sample":991,"values":{"NDP":39,"CON":47,"GRN":10},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-03-13","firm":"Mainstreet Research","sample":1054,"values":{"NDP":39,"CON":37,"GRN":12},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-03-17","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":499,"values":{"NDP":42,"CON":44,"GRN":9},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-04-06","firm":"Leger","sample":1003,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":40,"GRN":10,"ONEBC":3},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-04-13","firm":"Mainstreet Research","sample":1275,"values":{"NDP":38,"CON":32.8,"GRN":16.1,"ONEBC":10.9},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-04-28","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":804,"values":{"NDP":36,"CON":46,"GRN":13},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-06-02","firm":"Leger","sample":1002,"values":{"NDP":41,"CON":45,"GRN":8},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-06-05","firm":"Research Co.","sample":803,"values":{"NDP":42,"CON":42,"GRN":9,"ONEBC":2,"CENTRE":3},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-06-12","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":755,"values":{"NDP":36,"CON":47,"GRN":11},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-07-17","firm":"Fairview Strategy","sample":896,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":40,"GRN":12},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-08-03","firm":"Yorkville Strategies","sample":1016,"values":{"NDP":46,"CON":40,"GRN":12,"ONEBC":1,"CENTRE":0},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-08-08","firm":"604 Polling","sample":1124,"values":{"NDP":35,"CON":45,"GRN":12,"ONEBC":2,"CENTRE":2},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-08-14","firm":"Research Co.","sample":801,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":39,"GRN":10,"ONEBC":1,"CENTRE":5},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-09-14","firm":"Ipsos","sample":800,"values":{"NDP":45,"CON":35,"GRN":10,"ONEBC":2,"CENTRE":4},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-09-15","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":749,"values":{"NDP":41,"CON":37,"GRN":13},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]}],"new_polls":[{"date":"2026-09-15","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":749,"values":{"NDP":41,"CON":37,"GRN":13}}],"revised_polls":[],"average":{"NDP":{"mean":42.61,"lo":39.62,"hi":45.6},"CON":{"mean":37.35,"lo":34.54,"hi":40.17},"GRN":{"mean":11.38,"lo":9.98,"hi":12.77},"ONEBC":{"mean":1.73,"lo":1.29,"hi":2.17},"CENTRE":{"mean":3.58,"lo":2.21,"hi":4.95}},"model_target":{"NDP":42.61,"CON":37.35,"GRN":11.38,"ONEBC":1.73,"CENTRE":3.58,"OTH":3.34},"parameters":{"sigma_nat":4.601,"sigma_reg":5.246,"sigma_rid":6.785,"df_nat":4,"df_reg":4,"df_rid":4,"alpha":0.5,"draws":10000,"seed":20261024,"absent_transfers":{"GRN":{"NDP":0.6,"CON":0.21,"CENTRE":0.13,"ONEBC":0.03,"OTH":0.03},"ONEBC":{"CON":0.85,"NDP":0.1,"OTH":0.05},"CENTRE":{"CON":0.5,"NDP":0.37,"GRN":0.13}},"bc_united_residual_transfer":{"CENTRE":0.3,"CON":0.44,"NDP":0.175,"GRN":0.05,"OTH":0.035},"new_party_rules":{"ONEBC":"proxy","CENTRE":"proxy"},"regions":["Metro Vancouver","Fraser Valley","Vancouver Island","Interior and North"],"majority":47,"independents_carried":{"306":[{"name":"Jordan Kealy","label_2024":"Conservative Party","kind":"party","share_2024":74.4,"carried":29.0,"sdlog":0.57}]},"independent_rule":{"party":{"median":0.39,"sdlog":0.57},"independent":{"median":1.05,"sdlog":0.25}},"regional_adjustment":{"applied":false,"rule":"shrink province-wide swing toward regional poll splits","groups":{}}},"province":{"seats":{"NDP":{"seats_median":52.0,"seats_mean":51.5959,"seats_lo90":31.0,"seats_hi90":70.0,"p_majority":0.6972,"p_most_seats":0.7349,"vote_median":44.9446,"vote_lo90":38.0702,"vote_hi90":51.4503},"CON":{"seats_median":38.0,"seats_mean":38.4085,"seats_lo90":20.0,"seats_hi90":59.0,"p_majority":0.2196,"p_most_seats":0.2526,"vote_median":40.4371,"vote_lo90":33.8394,"vote_hi90":47.1695},"GRN":{"seats_median":2.0,"seats_mean":2.7507,"seats_lo90":0.0,"seats_hi90":6.0,"p_majority":0.0001,"p_most_seats":0.0001,"vote_median":10.9857,"vote_lo90":7.0085,"vote_hi90":14.9745},"ONEBC":{"seats_median":0.0,"seats_mean":0.0004,"seats_lo90":0.0,"seats_hi90":0.0,"p_majority":0.0,"p_most_seats":0.0,"vote_median":0.7869,"vote_lo90":0.111,"vote_hi90":1.6267},"CENTRE":{"seats_median":0.0,"seats_mean":0.0062,"seats_lo90":0.0,"seats_hi90":0.0,"p_majority":0.0,"p_most_seats":0.0,"vote_median":1.6107,"vote_lo90":0.5468,"vote_hi90":2.7544},"OTH":{"seats_median":0.0,"seats_mean":0.2383,"seats_lo90":0.0,"seats_hi90":1.0,"p_majority":0.0,"p_most_seats":0.0,"vote_median":1.1653,"vote_lo90":0.5457,"vote_hi90":1.8753}},"p_minority":0.0831,"p_tied_most_seats":0.0124,"ridings_led":{"NDP":55,"CON":36,"GRN":2,"ONEBC":0,"CENTRE":0,"OTH":0},"ridings_led_point":{"NDP":56,"CON":35,"GRN":2,"ONEBC":0,"CENTRE":0,"OTH":0},"categories":{"Solid":15,"Likely":37,"Leans":20,"Toss-up":21},"toss_ups":21,"seat_histogram":{"NDP":{"0":6,"1":4,"2":3,"3":6,"4":1,"5":5,"6":3,"7":3,"8":3,"9":3,"10":4,"11":5,"12":5,"13":8,"14":9,"15":10,"16":12,"17":10,"18":17,"19":17,"20":14,"21":24,"22":20,"23":21,"24":20,"25":28,"26":45,"27":33,"28":43,"29":39,"30":51,"31":55,"32":67,"33":69,"34":91,"35":113,"36":111,"37":111,"38":149,"39":154,"40":178,"41":202,"42":206,"43":230,"44":262,"45":279,"46":279,"47":309,"48":330,"49":346,"50":365,"51":357,"52":396,"53":378,"54":386,"55":391,"56":315,"57":335,"58":326,"59":307,"60":282,"61":243,"62":243,"63":249,"64":188,"65":154,"66":136,"67":134,"68":114,"69":105,"70":90,"71":104,"72":55,"73":55,"74":38,"75":40,"76":32,"77":25,"78":25,"79":15,"80":16,"81":19,"82":9,"83":10,"84":10,"85":14,"86":8,"87":3,"88":4,"89":4,"90":2,"91":5},"CON":{"0":1,"1":4,"2":5,"3":6,"4":12,"5":11,"6":7,"7":11,"8":7,"9":15,"10":12,"11":24,"12":25,"13":31,"14":24,"15":35,"16":37,"17":54,"18":63,"19":86,"20":97,"21":86,"22":116,"23":136,"24":141,"25":170,"26":182,"27":206,"28":231,"29":277,"30":299,"31":288,"32":327,"33":343,"34":340,"35":365,"36":410,"37":375,"38":379,"39":383,"40":377,"41":360,"42":327,"43":296,"44":306,"45":266,"46":251,"47":237,"48":221,"49":205,"50":168,"51":164,"52":122,"53":133,"54":87,"55":117,"56":84,"57":81,"58":61,"59":57,"60":54,"61":43,"62":33,"63":33,"64":35,"65":26,"66":29,"67":26,"68":16,"69":24,"70":19,"71":19,"72":13,"73":11,"74":10,"75":8,"76":6,"77":6,"78":5,"79":7,"80":4,"81":6,"82":3,"83":2,"84":4,"85":4,"86":2,"87":3,"88":1,"89":3,"90":2,"92":2},"GRN":{"0":611,"1":1696,"2":2994,"3":2215,"4":1142,"5":592,"6":323,"7":174,"8":92,"9":63,"10":37,"11":27,"12":15,"14":5,"15":6,"16":1,"17":3,"18":1,"21":1,"31":1,"47":1},"ONEBC":{"0":9997,"1":2,"2":1},"CENTRE":{"0":9940,"1":58,"2":2},"OTH":{"0":7622,"1":2373,"2":5}},"projected_vote":{"NDP":45.17,"CON":40.41,"GRN":10.97,"ONEBC":0.75,"CENTRE":1.57,"OTH":1.13}},"ridings":[{"id":"258","name":"Abbotsford-Mission","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Reann Gasper","share":55.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":55.4,"NDP":44.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":42.77,"CON":50.76,"ONEBC":2.11,"CENTRE":4.36},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Vacant","party_at_dissolution":null,"not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":"vacant"},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5816,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4182,"CON":0.5816,"ONEBC":0.0001,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":43.33,"CON":46.89,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":2.19,"CENTRE":4.33,"OTH":3.25},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":28.32,"median":43.36,"hi90":57.81},"CON":{"lo90":31.09,"median":46.43,"hi90":61.42},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.82,"hi90":7.23},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.08,"median":4.05,"hi90":11.01},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.81,"hi90":9.34}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"vacant","note":"Vacant: Reann Gasper (Conservative) resigned 2026-08-22; the 2026-09-26 by-election was cancelled by dissolution. Kerry-Lynne Findlay is not a candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: no incumbent."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"259","name":"Abbotsford South","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Bruce Banman","share":61.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":61.6,"NDP":35.2,"IND":3.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":34.43,"CON":58.12,"ONEBC":2.43,"CENTRE":5.02},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Bruce Banman","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8788,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1212,"CON":0.8788},"point":{"NDP":38.51,"CON":58.87,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":2.62,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":24.48,"median":38.7,"hi90":53.62},"CON":{"lo90":43.49,"median":58.55,"hi90":72.55},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.21,"hi90":7.98}},"baseline_moves":["Amandeep Singh (independent 2024, 3.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Bruce Banman: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"260","name":"Abbotsford West","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Korky Neufeld","share":58.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":58.4,"NDP":36.9,"IND":4.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":36.09,"CON":55.27,"ONEBC":2.31,"CENTRE":6.33},"running":["NDP","CON","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Korky Neufeld","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8409,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.159,"CON":0.8409,"CENTRE":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":38.23,"CON":55.26,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":6.51,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":23.36,"median":38.13,"hi90":53.07},"CON":{"lo90":39.93,"median":55.09,"hi90":70.19},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.55,"median":6.29,"hi90":14.27}},"baseline_moves":["James Davison (independent 2024, 4.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"261","name":"Boundary-Similkameen","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Donegal Wilson","share":48.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":48.4,"NDP":42.6,"GRN":5.9,"IND":3.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":41.73,"CON":46.53,"GRN":5.82,"ONEBC":1.93,"CENTRE":3.98},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Donegal Wilson","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5557,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5557,"CON":0.4442,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":50.04,"CON":47.65,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":2.31,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":35.53,"median":49.87,"hi90":63.8},"CON":{"lo90":33.55,"median":47.67,"hi90":61.82},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.17,"median":1.87,"hi90":7.19}},"baseline_moves":["Sean Taylor (independent 2024, 3.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Donegal Wilson: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"262","name":"Bulkley Valley-Stikine","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Sharon L. Hartwell","share":52.3},"shares_2024":{"CON":52.3,"NDP":38.9,"GRN":6.3,"OTH":2.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":37.24,"CON":47.91,"GRN":6.24,"ONEBC":1.99,"CENTRE":4.11,"OTH":2.5},"running":["NDP","CON","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Sharon Hartwell","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6339,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3658,"CON":0.6339,"OTH":0.0003},"point":{"NDP":44.6,"CON":49.31,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":6.09},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":30.91,"median":44.38,"hi90":58.05},"CON":{"lo90":35.79,"median":49.48,"hi90":63.23},"OTH":{"lo90":0.69,"median":5.7,"hi90":12.78}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"263","name":"Burnaby Centre","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Anne Kang","share":57.3},"shares_2024":{"NDP":57.3,"CON":42.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":55.36,"CON":39.65,"ONEBC":1.62,"CENTRE":3.37},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Anne Kang","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8739,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8739,"CON":0.1261},"point":{"NDP":56.75,"CON":38.37,"GRN":1.64,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":3.24,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":42.12,"median":56.21,"hi90":69.74},"CON":{"lo90":24.72,"median":38.37,"hi90":51.86},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.25,"hi90":7.64},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.93,"hi90":8.73}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"264","name":"Burnaby East","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Reah Arora","share":51.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.8,"CON":40.5,"GRN":7.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":50.11,"CON":37.6,"GRN":7.55,"ONEBC":1.54,"CENTRE":3.19},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Rohini Arora","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8524,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8524,"CON":0.1467,"GRN":0.0009},"point":{"NDP":51.32,"CON":35.7,"GRN":11.39,"ONEBC":1.58,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":37.27,"median":51.17,"hi90":64.77},"CON":{"lo90":22.84,"median":35.7,"hi90":49.22},"GRN":{"lo90":2.9,"median":11.14,"hi90":20.73},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.22,"hi90":5.49}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"265","name":"Burnaby-New Westminster","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Raj Chouhan","share":60.0},"shares_2024":{"NDP":60.0,"CON":34.7,"IND":5.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":59.5,"CON":35.64,"GRN":0.39,"ONEBC":1.45,"CENTRE":3.01},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Raj Chouhan","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9426,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9426,"CON":0.0574},"point":{"NDP":61.9,"CON":35.59,"GRN":2.51,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":47.56,"median":61.48,"hi90":74.16},"CON":{"lo90":22.73,"median":35.59,"hi90":49.28},"GRN":{"lo90":0.04,"median":2.16,"hi90":8.63}},"baseline_moves":["Daniel Kofi Ampong (independent 2024, 5.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"266","name":"Burnaby North","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Janet Routledge","share":53.3},"shares_2024":{"NDP":53.3,"CON":43.0,"IND":3.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":52.33,"CON":42.08,"GRN":0.28,"ONEBC":1.73,"CENTRE":3.58},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Janet Routledge","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8108,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8108,"CON":0.1891,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":54.74,"CON":41.01,"GRN":2.44,"ONEBC":1.81,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":39.92,"median":54.23,"hi90":67.76},"CON":{"lo90":27.25,"median":40.99,"hi90":54.63},"GRN":{"lo90":0.06,"median":2.04,"hi90":8.45},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.42,"hi90":6.04}},"baseline_moves":["Martin Kendell (independent 2024, 3.7%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"267","name":"Burnaby South-Metrotown","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Paul Choi","share":49.3},"shares_2024":{"NDP":49.3,"CON":41.6,"GRN":6.3,"IND":1.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":48.31,"CON":40.21,"GRN":6.4,"ONEBC":1.65,"CENTRE":3.42},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Paul Choi","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7795,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7795,"CON":0.2202,"GRN":0.0003},"point":{"NDP":49.77,"CON":38.49,"GRN":10.03,"ONEBC":1.7,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":35.58,"median":49.68,"hi90":63.23},"CON":{"lo90":25.1,"median":38.44,"hi90":52.38},"GRN":{"lo90":1.96,"median":9.71,"hi90":18.79},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.33,"hi90":5.65}},"baseline_moves":["Meiling Chia (independent 2024, 1.9%) not running: transferred","MichaelAngelo Abc RobinHood (independent 2024, 0.9%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"268","name":"Cariboo-Chilcotin","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Lorne Doerkson","share":69.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":69.6,"NDP":30.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":28.91,"CON":62.98,"ONEBC":2.65,"CENTRE":5.47},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Lorne Doerkson","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9731,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0268,"CON":0.9731,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":31.82,"CON":65.82,"GRN":2.36,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":18.15,"median":31.56,"hi90":45.45},"CON":{"lo90":51.12,"median":65.41,"hi90":78.82},"GRN":{"lo90":0.14,"median":2.04,"hi90":9.38}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"leader_seat","note":"Conservative interim leader Lorne Doerkson.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low (safe seats)."}]},{"id":"269","name":"Chilliwack-Cultus Lake","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"A'aliya Warbus","share":54.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":54.6,"NDP":45.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":43.57,"CON":50.06,"ONEBC":2.08,"CENTRE":4.29},"running":["NDP","CON"],"incumbent":{"name":"Áʼa꞉líya Warbus","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6047,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3953,"CON":0.6047},"point":{"NDP":47.82,"CON":52.18,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.65,"median":47.79,"hi90":63.04},"CON":{"lo90":36.96,"median":52.21,"hi90":67.35}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Áʼa꞉líya Warbus: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"270","name":"Chilliwack North","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Heather Maahs","share":54.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":54.6,"NDP":37.7,"GRN":5.5,"IND":2.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":36.05,"CON":49.9,"GRN":5.43,"ONEBC":2.08,"CENTRE":6.55},"running":["NDP","CON","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Heather Maahs","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6991,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3009,"CON":0.6991},"point":{"NDP":41.95,"CON":50.48,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":7.57,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":27.07,"median":41.9,"hi90":56.85},"CON":{"lo90":35.27,"median":50.5,"hi90":65.77},"CENTRE":{"lo90":1.38,"median":7.24,"hi90":15.27}},"baseline_moves":["Dan Grice (independent 2024) runs again as CENTRE"],"notes":[{"type":"returning_candidate","note":"Dan Grice took 2.3% as an independent in 2024 and is the 2026 CentreBC candidate; v1 moves his 2024 vote to CentreBC.","v1":"His 2024 votes are assigned to CentreBC.","why_it_may_matter":"Low."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"271","name":"Columbia River-Revelstoke","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Scott McInnis","share":47.9},"shares_2024":{"CON":47.9,"NDP":44.3,"GRN":7.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":42.56,"CON":44.12,"GRN":7.72,"ONEBC":1.82,"CENTRE":3.77},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Scott McInnis","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5106,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4878,"CON":0.5106,"GRN":0.0016},"point":{"NDP":44.18,"CON":44.11,"GRN":11.71,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":29.02,"median":43.81,"hi90":58.6},"CON":{"lo90":30.01,"median":44.27,"hi90":59.13},"GRN":{"lo90":2.65,"median":11.47,"hi90":21.56}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Scott McInnis: left or was removed from the Conservative caucus in September 2026 and returned on 2026-09-21; Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low."}]},{"id":"272","name":"Coquitlam-Burke Mountain","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Jodie Wickens","share":50.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":50.8,"CON":49.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":48.94,"CON":45.32,"ONEBC":1.87,"CENTRE":3.87},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jodie Wickens","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.6454,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.6454,"CON":0.3545,"CENTRE":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":50.27,"CON":44.33,"GRN":1.64,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":3.76,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":35.57,"median":49.78,"hi90":63.44},"CON":{"lo90":30.26,"median":44.24,"hi90":58.39},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.23,"hi90":7.43},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.42,"hi90":9.68}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"273","name":"Coquitlam-Maillardville","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Jennifer Blatherwick","share":51.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.8,"CON":39.6,"GRN":6.3,"IND":2.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":50.64,"CON":38.13,"GRN":6.43,"ONEBC":1.56,"CENTRE":3.24},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jennifer Blatherwick","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8206,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8206,"CON":0.1788,"GRN":0.0006},"point":{"NDP":52.19,"CON":37.78,"GRN":10.03,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":37.93,"median":51.93,"hi90":65.71},"CON":{"lo90":24.78,"median":37.9,"hi90":51.91},"GRN":{"lo90":2.2,"median":9.71,"hi90":18.99}},"baseline_moves":["Ken Holowanky (independent 2024, 2.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"274","name":"Courtenay-Comox","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Brennan Day","share":38.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":38.8,"NDP":38.6,"GRN":20.7,"IND":1.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":37.51,"CON":36.67,"GRN":20.61,"ONEBC":1.51,"CENTRE":3.7},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Brennan Day","party_at_dissolution":"IND","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5057,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5057,"CON":0.3746,"GRN":0.1197},"point":{"NDP":36.47,"CON":33.67,"GRN":26.44,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":3.41,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":21.87,"median":36.18,"hi90":50.91},"CON":{"lo90":19.71,"median":33.74,"hi90":48.72},"GRN":{"lo90":12.84,"median":26.01,"hi90":40.05},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.07,"hi90":9.52}},"baseline_moves":["John Hedican (independent 2024, 1.5%) not running: transferred","Devin Howell (independent 2024, 0.4%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Brennan Day left the Conservative caucus on 2026-08-26 and returned after the writ; Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low."}]},{"id":"275","name":"Cowichan Valley","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Debra Toporowski","share":40.5},"shares_2024":{"NDP":40.5,"CON":37.6,"GRN":19.8,"IND":1.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":39.59,"CON":36.0,"GRN":19.76,"ONEBC":1.48,"CENTRE":3.06,"OTH":0.1},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Debra Toporowski","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5842,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5842,"CON":0.3328,"GRN":0.0829,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":38.41,"CON":33.35,"GRN":25.03,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.22},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":23.8,"median":38.15,"hi90":52.56},"CON":{"lo90":20.35,"median":33.49,"hi90":47.98},"GRN":{"lo90":12.04,"median":24.48,"hi90":37.99},"OTH":{"lo90":0.02,"median":2.85,"hi90":9.12}},"baseline_moves":["Eden Haythornthwaite (independent 2024, 1.2%) not running: transferred","Jon Coleman (independent 2024, 0.9%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"276","name":"Delta North","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Ravi Kahlon","share":52.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":52.7,"CON":40.2,"GRN":6.2,"OTH":0.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":50.97,"CON":37.34,"GRN":6.14,"ONEBC":1.53,"CENTRE":3.17,"OTH":0.85},"running":["NDP","CON","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Ravi Kahlon","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9012,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9012,"CON":0.0988},"point":{"NDP":57.83,"CON":37.85,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":4.32,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":44.37,"median":57.68,"hi90":70.78},"CON":{"lo90":24.82,"median":37.89,"hi90":51.45},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.85,"median":4.09,"hi90":9.66}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Ravi Kahlon (NDP) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate: loss of incumbent (The Writ docks a party 3-4 points when its incumbent leaves)."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"277","name":"Delta South","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Ian Paton","share":55.1},"shares_2024":{"CON":55.1,"NDP":44.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":43.08,"CON":50.49,"ONEBC":2.09,"CENTRE":4.33},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Ian Paton","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6229,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3771,"CON":0.6229},"point":{"NDP":45.66,"CON":49.94,"GRN":2.2,"ONEBC":2.2,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":31.59,"median":45.28,"hi90":58.98},"CON":{"lo90":35.79,"median":49.83,"hi90":63.04},"GRN":{"lo90":0.11,"median":1.84,"hi90":8.05},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.83,"hi90":6.53}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Ian Paton: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."},{"type":"notable_candidate","note":"Jim McMurtry (OneBC's first nominee; independent in Surrey-Serpentine River in 2024, PPC federally in 2025) runs here against incumbent Ian Paton (Conservative).","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate."}]},{"id":"278","name":"Esquimalt-Colwood","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Darlene Rotchford","share":51.5},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.5,"CON":29.2,"GRN":19.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":50.05,"CON":27.39,"GRN":19.14,"ONEBC":1.11,"CENTRE":2.31},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Darlene Rotchford","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8994,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8994,"CON":0.0518,"GRN":0.0488},"point":{"NDP":48.75,"CON":24.53,"GRN":24.65,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":2.07,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":33.22,"median":48.53,"hi90":63.75},"CON":{"lo90":11.85,"median":24.58,"hi90":38.95},"GRN":{"lo90":11.31,"median":24.17,"hi90":38.25},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.66,"hi90":7.4}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"279","name":"Fraser-Nicola","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Tony Luck","share":54.3},"shares_2024":{"CON":54.3,"NDP":36.4,"GRN":9.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":34.84,"CON":49.68,"GRN":9.14,"ONEBC":2.07,"CENTRE":4.27},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Tony Luck","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8156,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1829,"CON":0.8156,"GRN":0.0015},"point":{"NDP":36.5,"CON":49.96,"GRN":13.53,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":21.87,"median":36.2,"hi90":50.46},"CON":{"lo90":35.76,"median":50.17,"hi90":64.99},"GRN":{"lo90":3.95,"median":13.28,"hi90":23.99}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"280","name":"Juan de Fuca-Malahat","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Dana Lajeunesse","share":38.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":38.8,"CON":38.2,"GRN":23.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":37.43,"CON":35.35,"GRN":22.76,"ONEBC":1.45,"CENTRE":3.01},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Dana Lajeunesse","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5226,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5226,"CON":0.3021,"GRN":0.1753},"point":{"NDP":35.93,"CON":31.29,"GRN":28.35,"ONEBC":1.4,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.02},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":21.37,"median":35.68,"hi90":50.04},"CON":{"lo90":17.93,"median":31.33,"hi90":45.49},"GRN":{"lo90":14.6,"median":27.84,"hi90":41.85},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.99,"hi90":5.39},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.67,"hi90":8.9}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"281","name":"Kamloops Centre","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Peter Milobar","share":48.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":48.8,"NDP":40.9,"GRN":10.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":39.31,"CON":44.87,"GRN":10.12,"ONEBC":1.86,"CENTRE":3.84},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Peter Milobar","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5753,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4209,"CON":0.5753,"GRN":0.0038},"point":{"NDP":39.22,"CON":41.64,"GRN":14.18,"ONEBC":1.84,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.12},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":24.55,"median":38.74,"hi90":52.87},"CON":{"lo90":27.47,"median":41.66,"hi90":55.97},"GRN":{"lo90":4.41,"median":13.87,"hi90":24.72},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.43,"hi90":6.39},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.64,"hi90":8.97}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Peter Milobar: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."}]},{"id":"282","name":"Kamloops-North Thompson","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Ward Stamer","share":59.7},"shares_2024":{"CON":59.7,"NDP":32.9,"GRN":7.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":31.4,"CON":54.38,"GRN":7.25,"ONEBC":2.27,"CENTRE":4.69},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Ward Stamer","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.835,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.165,"CON":0.835},"point":{"NDP":41.05,"CON":56.21,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":2.74,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":27.41,"median":40.7,"hi90":55.06},"CON":{"lo90":41.96,"median":56.34,"hi90":69.9},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.24,"median":2.36,"hi90":7.65}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"283","name":"Kelowna Centre","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Kristina Loewen","share":42.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":42.8,"NDP":42.7,"IND":10.1,"GRN":4.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":43.8,"CON":46.09,"GRN":4.26,"ONEBC":1.91,"CENTRE":3.94},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Kristina Loewen","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5958,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5958,"CON":0.4042},"point":{"NDP":50.91,"CON":46.86,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":2.23,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":36.21,"median":50.7,"hi90":64.61},"CON":{"lo90":32.78,"median":46.83,"hi90":61.14},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.12,"median":1.81,"hi90":6.97}},"baseline_moves":["Michael Humer (independent 2024, 10.1%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Michael Humer took 10.1% as an independent in 2024; not running. His vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"284","name":"Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Tara Armstrong","share":53.9},"shares_2024":{"CON":53.9,"NDP":35.2,"IND":6.5,"GRN":4.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":35.33,"CON":53.12,"GRN":4.76,"ONEBC":2.21,"CENTRE":4.58},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Tara Armstrong","party_at_dissolution":"IND","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8332,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1666,"CON":0.8332,"GRN":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":37.32,"CON":52.17,"GRN":8.21,"ONEBC":2.31,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":22.92,"median":36.96,"hi90":51.33},"CON":{"lo90":37.19,"median":52.05,"hi90":66.6},"GRN":{"lo90":0.99,"median":7.94,"hi90":17.31},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.91,"hi90":7.36}},"baseline_moves":["Kevin Kraft (independent 2024, 6.5%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Tara Armstrong (elected Conservative 2024; OneBC co-founder, then independent) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate."}]},{"id":"285","name":"Kelowna-Mission","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Gavin Dew","share":51.5},"shares_2024":{"CON":51.5,"NDP":32.6,"IND":11.0,"GRN":4.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":33.92,"CON":53.55,"GRN":5.68,"ONEBC":2.23,"CENTRE":4.62},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Gavin Dew","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8655,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.134,"CON":0.8655,"GRN":0.0005},"point":{"NDP":35.81,"CON":52.51,"GRN":9.36,"ONEBC":2.32,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":21.46,"median":35.34,"hi90":49.67},"CON":{"lo90":37.96,"median":52.64,"hi90":67.0},"GRN":{"lo90":1.36,"median":9.06,"hi90":18.81},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.94,"hi90":7.31}},"baseline_moves":["Ashley Ramsay (independent 2024, 11.0%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Ashley Ramsay took 11.0% as an independent in 2024; not running. Her vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"286","name":"Kootenay Central","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Brittny Anderson","share":39.6},"shares_2024":{"NDP":39.6,"CON":31.7,"GRN":18.7,"IND":10.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":40.8,"CON":35.45,"GRN":19.28,"ONEBC":1.46,"CENTRE":3.01},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Brittny Anderson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.66,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.66,"CON":0.2753,"GRN":0.0647},"point":{"NDP":40.67,"CON":32.62,"GRN":25.26,"ONEBC":1.45,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":25.69,"median":40.39,"hi90":55.11},"CON":{"lo90":18.69,"median":32.62,"hi90":47.5},"GRN":{"lo90":12.37,"median":24.98,"hi90":37.55},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.03,"hi90":5.82}},"baseline_moves":["Corinne Mori (independent 2024, 10.0%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Corinne Mori took 10.0% as an independent in 2024; not running. Her vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"287","name":"Kootenay-Monashee","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Steve Morissette","share":52.0},"shares_2024":{"NDP":52.0,"CON":38.9,"GRN":9.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":50.34,"CON":36.11,"GRN":9.01,"ONEBC":1.48,"CENTRE":3.06},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Steve Morissette","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.856,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.856,"CON":0.1415,"GRN":0.0025},"point":{"NDP":51.3,"CON":34.04,"GRN":13.14,"ONEBC":1.51,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":35.87,"median":50.97,"hi90":65.38},"CON":{"lo90":20.1,"median":34.07,"hi90":48.67},"GRN":{"lo90":3.46,"median":12.88,"hi90":23.52},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.08,"hi90":6.1}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"288","name":"Kootenay-Rockies","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Pete Davis","share":42.7},"shares_2024":{"CON":42.7,"IND":30.4,"NDP":21.7,"GRN":5.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":25.97,"CON":51.35,"GRN":6.65,"ONEBC":2.15,"CENTRE":13.89},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Pete Davis","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9253,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0676,"CON":0.9253,"GRN":0.0024,"CENTRE":0.0047},"point":{"NDP":25.97,"CON":48.07,"GRN":9.99,"ONEBC":2.23,"CENTRE":13.74,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":12.39,"median":25.66,"hi90":39.41},"CON":{"lo90":32.87,"median":48.14,"hi90":63.17},"GRN":{"lo90":1.32,"median":9.67,"hi90":19.99},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.86,"hi90":7.17},"CENTRE":{"lo90":3.53,"median":13.37,"hi90":23.78}},"baseline_moves":["Tom Shypitka (independent 2024, 30.4%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Tom Shypitka (ex-BC United MLA) took 30.4% as an independent in 2024; not running. His vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"289","name":"Ladysmith-Oceanside","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Stephanie Higginson","share":41.5},"shares_2024":{"NDP":41.5,"CON":35.5,"IND":16.3,"GRN":6.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.07,"CON":42.67,"GRN":7.86,"ONEBC":1.76,"CENTRE":3.64},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Stephanie Higginson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5668,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5668,"CON":0.4308,"GRN":0.0024},"point":{"NDP":45.62,"CON":42.54,"GRN":11.85,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":30.06,"median":45.38,"hi90":60.16},"CON":{"lo90":28.22,"median":42.79,"hi90":57.7},"GRN":{"lo90":2.11,"median":11.39,"hi90":22.89}},"baseline_moves":["Adam Walker (independent 2024, 16.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Adam Walker took 16.3% as an independent in 2024; not running. His vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"290","name":"Langford-Highlands","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Ravi Parmar","share":51.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.9,"CON":37.4,"GRN":10.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":50.21,"CON":34.79,"GRN":10.63,"ONEBC":1.42,"CENTRE":2.95},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Ravi Parmar","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8615,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8615,"CON":0.1344,"GRN":0.004,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":48.49,"CON":31.43,"GRN":14.25,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":2.66,"OTH":3.17},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.92,"median":48.14,"hi90":62.67},"CON":{"lo90":18.24,"median":31.35,"hi90":45.81},"GRN":{"lo90":3.53,"median":13.76,"hi90":25.45},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.31,"hi90":8.13},"OTH":{"lo90":0.01,"median":2.81,"hi90":9.14}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"291","name":"Langley-Abbotsford","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Harman Bhangu","share":55.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":55.6,"NDP":33.7,"GRN":5.6,"IND":4.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":33.24,"CON":53.18,"GRN":5.79,"ONEBC":2.22,"CENTRE":4.59,"OTH":0.99},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Harman Bhangu","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8528,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1465,"CON":0.8528,"GRN":0.0007},"point":{"NDP":33.97,"CON":50.45,"GRN":9.18,"ONEBC":2.23,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":4.16},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":19.83,"median":33.76,"hi90":48.08},"CON":{"lo90":35.13,"median":50.15,"hi90":64.82},"GRN":{"lo90":1.49,"median":8.88,"hi90":18.01},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.83,"hi90":7.23},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.74,"hi90":10.53}},"baseline_moves":["Karen Long (independent 2024, 4.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"292","name":"Langley-Walnut Grove","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Misty Van Popta","share":49.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":49.6,"NDP":44.8,"GRN":5.1,"IND":0.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":43.11,"CON":45.81,"GRN":5.09,"ONEBC":1.89,"CENTRE":4.09},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Misty Van Popta","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5222,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4774,"CON":0.5222,"GRN":0.0004},"point":{"NDP":43.72,"CON":44.33,"GRN":8.02,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":3.94,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":27.87,"median":43.58,"hi90":59.06},"CON":{"lo90":28.66,"median":44.27,"hi90":59.43},"GRN":{"lo90":0.21,"median":7.65,"hi90":17.02},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.55,"hi90":10.81}},"baseline_moves":["Carlos Suarez Rubio (independent 2024, 0.5%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"293","name":"Langley-Willowbrook","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Jody Toor","share":48.2},"shares_2024":{"CON":48.2,"NDP":44.4,"GRN":7.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":42.72,"CON":44.4,"GRN":7.25,"ONEBC":1.83,"CENTRE":3.8},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jody Toor","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5317,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5317,"CON":0.4673,"GRN":0.001},"point":{"NDP":44.2,"CON":42.77,"GRN":11.14,"ONEBC":1.89,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":28.66,"median":43.92,"hi90":58.99},"CON":{"lo90":27.46,"median":42.68,"hi90":57.75},"GRN":{"lo90":2.44,"median":10.81,"hi90":21.04},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.54,"hi90":6.77}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"294","name":"Maple Ridge East","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Lawrence Mok","share":47.0},"shares_2024":{"CON":47.0,"NDP":46.6,"GRN":6.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.89,"CON":43.35,"GRN":6.27,"ONEBC":1.79,"CENTRE":3.7},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Lawrence Mok","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5773,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5773,"CON":0.4223,"GRN":0.0004},"point":{"NDP":45.18,"CON":41.98,"GRN":9.6,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.23},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":29.49,"median":44.93,"hi90":59.71},"CON":{"lo90":27.19,"median":41.92,"hi90":56.94},"GRN":{"lo90":1.65,"median":9.28,"hi90":18.94},"OTH":{"lo90":0.01,"median":2.75,"hi90":9.22}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"295","name":"Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Lisa Beare","share":54.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":54.9,"CON":45.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":52.96,"CON":41.77,"ONEBC":1.72,"CENTRE":3.55},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Lisa Beare","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8267,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8267,"CON":0.1733},"point":{"NDP":55.16,"CON":39.34,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":1.85,"CENTRE":3.65,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":40.04,"median":55.02,"hi90":69.62},"CON":{"lo90":24.29,"median":38.94,"hi90":53.66},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.46,"hi90":6.76},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.33,"hi90":10.18}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"296","name":"Mid Island-Pacific Rim","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Josie Osborne","share":48.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":48.7,"CON":39.5,"GRN":11.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":47.1,"CON":36.6,"GRN":11.68,"ONEBC":1.5,"CENTRE":3.11},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Josie Osborne","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7793,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7793,"CON":0.2158,"GRN":0.0049},"point":{"NDP":47.93,"CON":35.71,"GRN":16.36,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.76,"median":47.71,"hi90":62.65},"CON":{"lo90":21.59,"median":35.91,"hi90":50.44},"GRN":{"lo90":4.96,"median":15.93,"hi90":28.32}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"297","name":"Nanaimo-Gabriola Island","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Sheila Malcolmson","share":52.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":52.7,"CON":34.7,"GRN":12.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":51.14,"CON":32.32,"GRN":12.48,"ONEBC":1.32,"CENTRE":2.73},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Sheila Malcolmson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8987,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8987,"CON":0.0943,"GRN":0.007},"point":{"NDP":51.64,"CON":31.13,"GRN":17.23,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":36.38,"median":51.39,"hi90":66.12},"CON":{"lo90":17.87,"median":31.36,"hi90":45.6},"GRN":{"lo90":5.55,"median":16.81,"hi90":29.28}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"298","name":"Nanaimo-Lantzville","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"George Anderson","share":51.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.7,"CON":39.5,"GRN":8.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":50.04,"CON":36.69,"GRN":8.65,"ONEBC":1.5,"CENTRE":3.11},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"George Anderson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8262,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8262,"CON":0.1709,"GRN":0.0028,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":49.63,"CON":34.86,"GRN":12.32,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.19},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":34.67,"median":49.37,"hi90":63.86},"CON":{"lo90":21.25,"median":34.95,"hi90":48.98},"GRN":{"lo90":2.37,"median":11.87,"hi90":23.08},"OTH":{"lo90":0.01,"median":2.81,"hi90":8.87}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"299","name":"Nechako Lakes","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"John Rustad","share":67.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":67.4,"NDP":27.2,"GRN":5.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":25.86,"CON":61.02,"GRN":5.26,"ONEBC":2.57,"CENTRE":5.3},"running":["NDP","CON","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"John Rustad","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9644,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0356,"CON":0.9644},"point":{"NDP":33.28,"CON":63.12,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.59},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":20.27,"median":33.07,"hi90":46.63},"CON":{"lo90":49.67,"median":63.23,"hi90":76.19},"OTH":{"lo90":0.31,"median":3.13,"hi90":9.51}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"John Rustad (former Conservative leader, MLA since 2005) is not running. Elections BC's web table lists an unaffiliated candidate (Clint Lambert) whom its CSV omits.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: loss of a long-time incumbent in a safe seat."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"300","name":"New Westminster-Coquitlam","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Jennifer Whiteside","share":59.1},"shares_2024":{"NDP":59.1,"CON":29.8,"GRN":11.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":57.55,"CON":28.02,"GRN":10.94,"ONEBC":1.14,"CENTRE":2.36},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jennifer Whiteside","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9705,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9705,"CON":0.0271,"GRN":0.0024},"point":{"NDP":56.2,"CON":25.82,"GRN":14.84,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.15},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":41.87,"median":56.0,"hi90":69.08},"CON":{"lo90":14.32,"median":25.85,"hi90":38.6},"GRN":{"lo90":5.19,"median":14.51,"hi90":24.95},"OTH":{"lo90":0.01,"median":2.84,"hi90":8.49}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"301","name":"North Coast-Haida Gwaii","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Tamara Davidson","share":64.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":64.9,"CON":35.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":63.06,"CON":32.84,"ONEBC":1.33,"CENTRE":2.77},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Tamara Davidson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9648,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9648,"CON":0.0352},"point":{"NDP":65.45,"CON":32.57,"GRN":1.98,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":50.22,"median":64.63,"hi90":78.31},"CON":{"lo90":19.01,"median":32.62,"hi90":46.76},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.65,"hi90":9.07}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"302","name":"North Island","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Anna Kindy","share":47.1},"shares_2024":{"CON":47.1,"NDP":44.9,"GRN":8.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":43.23,"CON":43.37,"GRN":7.91,"ONEBC":1.79,"CENTRE":3.7},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Anna Kindy","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5312,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5312,"CON":0.4662,"GRN":0.0025,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":43.39,"CON":41.84,"GRN":11.55,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.22},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":28.44,"median":43.11,"hi90":57.43},"CON":{"lo90":27.91,"median":41.94,"hi90":56.38},"GRN":{"lo90":1.91,"median":11.13,"hi90":22.04},"OTH":{"lo90":0.02,"median":2.8,"hi90":8.9}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"303","name":"North Vancouver-Lonsdale","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Bowinn Ma","share":64.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":64.9,"CON":35.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":63.02,"CON":32.87,"ONEBC":1.34,"CENTRE":2.77},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Bowinn Ma","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9722,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9722,"CON":0.0277,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":65.41,"CON":32.61,"GRN":1.98,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":51.27,"median":64.89,"hi90":77.86},"CON":{"lo90":19.89,"median":32.66,"hi90":45.85},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.63,"hi90":7.79}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"304","name":"North Vancouver-Seymour","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Susie Chant","share":52.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":52.8,"CON":35.8,"IND":5.8,"GRN":5.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":52.08,"CON":35.76,"GRN":5.85,"ONEBC":1.46,"CENTRE":4.85},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Susie Chant","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9034,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9034,"CON":0.0959,"GRN":0.0005,"CENTRE":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":52.4,"CON":32.52,"GRN":8.91,"ONEBC":1.51,"CENTRE":4.66,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":37.92,"median":51.97,"hi90":65.93},"CON":{"lo90":19.43,"median":32.47,"hi90":45.83},"GRN":{"lo90":1.3,"median":8.68,"hi90":17.58},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.16,"hi90":5.37},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.35,"hi90":11.04}},"baseline_moves":["Mitchell Baker (independent 2024, 5.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_moved","note":"Lynne Block (Conservative MLA for West Vancouver-Capilano) is the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: a sitting MLA as challenger."}]},{"id":"305","name":"Oak Bay-Gordon Head","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Diana Gibson","share":49.1},"shares_2024":{"NDP":49.1,"CON":28.9,"GRN":22.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":47.74,"CON":27.06,"GRN":21.83,"ONEBC":1.1,"CENTRE":2.28},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Diana Gibson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8518,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8518,"CON":0.0561,"GRN":0.0921},"point":{"NDP":46.19,"CON":24.06,"GRN":27.71,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":2.03,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":30.75,"median":45.92,"hi90":61.01},"CON":{"lo90":11.51,"median":24.1,"hi90":38.16},"GRN":{"lo90":13.76,"median":27.22,"hi90":41.37},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.64,"hi90":7.36}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"notable_candidate","note":"Andrew Weaver (Green leader 2015-2020 and MLA for Oak Bay-Gordon Head 2013-2020) runs for CentreBC.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"High: a former MLA with a personal following could take far more than CentreBC's provincial share."}]},{"id":"306","name":"Peace River North","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Jordan Kealy","share":74.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":74.4,"IND":20.1,"NDP":5.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":5.16,"CON":56.9,"ONEBC":2.44,"CENTRE":5.02,"OTH":30.48},"running":["CON","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jordan Kealy","party_at_dissolution":"IND","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7629,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"CON":0.7629,"OTH":0.2371},"point":{"NDP":0.0,"CON":65.08,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":34.92},"share":{"CON":{"lo90":22.87,"median":65.02,"hi90":85.39},"OTH":{"lo90":14.61,"median":34.98,"hi90":77.13}},"baseline_moves":["Jordan Kealy (Conservative Party 2024, 74.4%) runs as an independent: 29.0 points carried forward (retention 0.39), held out of the swing","Dan Davies (independent 2024, 20.1%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"independent_incumbent","note":"Jordan Kealy (elected Conservative 2024 with 74.4%) left the caucus in March 2025 and runs as an independent. The NDP has no candidate (incomplete paperwork). Two-way race: Kealy v. Conservative Curtis Whitford.","v1":"v1.1: Kealy's 2024 share (74.4%, as a Conservative) is carried forward at the median retention of former party MLAs who ran as independents (0.39, so 29.0 points; log-normal spread, 90% range about 11-70 points), held out of the swing; the Conservative label keeps the rest. The NDP's share (no candidate) moves in proportion to the candidates who run.","why_it_may_matter":"High. An incumbent independent can win: Perry Trimper (NL 2021) kept more than his party share; most former party MLAs keep 15-50%."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"307","name":"Peace River South","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Larry Neufeld","share":69.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":69.8,"IND":24.6,"NDP":5.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":11.5,"CON":77.11,"ONEBC":3.29,"CENTRE":6.78,"OTH":1.32},"running":["NDP","CON","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Larry Neufeld","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9988,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0012,"CON":0.9988},"point":{"NDP":15.3,"CON":79.87,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":4.83},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":5.82,"median":15.3,"hi90":26.83},"CON":{"lo90":67.49,"median":79.65,"hi90":90.13},"OTH":{"lo90":0.29,"median":4.51,"hi90":11.28}},"baseline_moves":["Mike Bernier (independent 2024, 24.6%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Mike Bernier (ex-BC United MLA, CentreBC leader July-Sept 2026) took 24.6% as an independent in 2024; not running. His vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"308","name":"Penticton-Summerland","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Amelia Boultbee","share":41.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":41.4,"NDP":40.2,"IND":9.7,"GRN":5.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":39.45,"CON":48.89,"GRN":5.43,"ONEBC":2.03,"CENTRE":4.2},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Amelia Boultbee","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6625,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3373,"CON":0.6625,"GRN":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":41.28,"CON":47.64,"GRN":8.97,"ONEBC":2.11,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":26.59,"median":41.02,"hi90":55.94},"CON":{"lo90":32.58,"median":47.65,"hi90":62.4},"GRN":{"lo90":1.23,"median":8.74,"hi90":18.37},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.66,"hi90":6.92}},"baseline_moves":["Tracy St Claire (independent 2024) runs again as CON","Roger Harrington (independent 2024, 2.9%) not running: transferred","Anna Paddon (independent 2024, 0.5%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Amelia Boultbee (elected Conservative 2024) left the caucus in Oct 2025 and joined the NDP in July 2026; not running. OneBC runs Warren Hamm (former Conservative leadership candidate).","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: no incumbent; a OneBC candidate with a profile could split the Conservative vote."}]},{"id":"309","name":"Port Coquitlam","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Mike Farnworth","share":53.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":53.9,"CON":38.8,"GRN":6.4,"OTH":0.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":52.12,"CON":36.06,"GRN":6.33,"ONEBC":1.48,"CENTRE":3.06,"OTH":0.95},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Mike Farnworth","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8852,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8852,"CON":0.1146,"GRN":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":51.89,"CON":34.38,"GRN":9.57,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":4.16},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":37.76,"median":51.67,"hi90":65.01},"CON":{"lo90":21.6,"median":34.47,"hi90":47.7},"GRN":{"lo90":1.88,"median":9.33,"hi90":18.21},"OTH":{"lo90":0.1,"median":3.86,"hi90":9.68}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"310","name":"Port Moody-Burquitlam","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Rick Glumac","share":52.1},"shares_2024":{"NDP":52.1,"CON":40.5,"GRN":7.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":50.32,"CON":37.59,"GRN":7.36,"ONEBC":1.54,"CENTRE":3.19},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Rick Glumac","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8389,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8389,"CON":0.1597,"GRN":0.0013,"CENTRE":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":50.61,"CON":35.61,"GRN":10.77,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":3.01,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":36.03,"median":50.47,"hi90":64.34},"CON":{"lo90":22.17,"median":35.66,"hi90":49.42},"GRN":{"lo90":2.31,"median":10.42,"hi90":19.77},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.71,"hi90":8.51}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"311","name":"Powell River-Sunshine Coast","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Randene Neill","share":49.6},"shares_2024":{"NDP":49.6,"CON":35.7,"GRN":13.5,"IND":1.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":48.35,"CON":33.95,"GRN":13.44,"ONEBC":1.39,"CENTRE":2.88},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Randene Neill","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8548,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8548,"CON":0.1367,"GRN":0.0085},"point":{"NDP":48.83,"CON":32.78,"GRN":18.39,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":34.51,"median":48.69,"hi90":62.76},"CON":{"lo90":19.8,"median":32.86,"hi90":46.51},"GRN":{"lo90":7.78,"median":18.22,"hi90":29.76}},"baseline_moves":["Greg Reid (independent 2024, 1.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"312","name":"Prince George-Mackenzie","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Kiel Giddens","share":60.9},"shares_2024":{"CON":60.9,"NDP":28.2,"GRN":8.5,"IND":2.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":27.49,"CON":56.69,"GRN":8.54,"ONEBC":2.38,"CENTRE":4.91},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Kiel Giddens","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9552,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0436,"CON":0.9552,"GRN":0.0012},"point":{"NDP":29.42,"CON":57.66,"GRN":12.92,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":15.84,"median":29.11,"hi90":43.22},"CON":{"lo90":42.88,"median":57.82,"hi90":72.22},"GRN":{"lo90":3.57,"median":12.61,"hi90":23.24}},"baseline_moves":["Rachael Weber (independent 2024, 2.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"313","name":"Prince George-North Cariboo","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Sheldon Clare","share":56.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":56.8,"IND":21.8,"NDP":17.0,"GRN":4.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":21.6,"CON":64.24,"GRN":5.85,"ONEBC":2.71,"CENTRE":5.6},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Sheldon Clare","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9903,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0095,"CON":0.9903,"GRN":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":23.92,"CON":66.34,"GRN":9.74,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":11.03,"median":23.5,"hi90":37.11},"CON":{"lo90":52.13,"median":66.53,"hi90":80.04},"GRN":{"lo90":1.64,"median":9.6,"hi90":19.33}},"baseline_moves":["Coralee Oakes (independent 2024, 21.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Coralee Oakes (ex-BC United MLA) took 21.8% as an independent in 2024; not running. Her vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"314","name":"Prince George-Valemount","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Rosalyn Bird","share":55.2},"shares_2024":{"CON":55.2,"NDP":34.9,"GRN":9.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":33.43,"CON":50.41,"GRN":9.73,"ONEBC":2.1,"CENTRE":4.34},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Rosalyn Bird","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8255,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1712,"CON":0.8255,"GRN":0.0032,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":34.83,"CON":48.75,"GRN":14.26,"ONEBC":2.16,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":20.54,"median":34.47,"hi90":48.55},"CON":{"lo90":34.23,"median":48.66,"hi90":63.48},"GRN":{"lo90":4.25,"median":14.05,"hi90":24.95},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.78,"hi90":7.08}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Rosalyn Bird: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."}]},{"id":"315","name":"Richmond-Bridgeport","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Teresa Wat","share":58.2},"shares_2024":{"CON":58.2,"NDP":34.8,"GRN":3.2,"IND":3.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":34.24,"CON":55.49,"GRN":3.17,"ONEBC":2.32,"CENTRE":4.79},"running":["NDP","CON"],"incumbent":{"name":"Teresa Wat","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8762,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1238,"CON":0.8762},"point":{"NDP":41.15,"CON":58.85,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":28.12,"median":41.09,"hi90":54.56},"CON":{"lo90":45.44,"median":58.91,"hi90":71.88}},"baseline_moves":["Glynnis Hoi Sum Chan (independent 2024, 3.0%) not running: transferred","Charlie Smith (independent 2024, 0.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Teresa Wat: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"316","name":"Richmond Centre","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Hon Chan","share":52.0},"shares_2024":{"CON":52.0,"NDP":36.8,"IND":3.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":37.85,"CON":53.91,"GRN":0.79,"ONEBC":2.25,"CENTRE":4.64,"OTH":0.56},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Hon Chan","party_at_dissolution":"IND","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8388,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1612,"CON":0.8388},"point":{"NDP":39.26,"CON":53.71,"GRN":3.14,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.89},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":26.04,"median":39.04,"hi90":51.85},"CON":{"lo90":40.0,"median":53.57,"hi90":66.85},"GRN":{"lo90":0.22,"median":2.78,"hi90":9.37},"OTH":{"lo90":0.1,"median":3.6,"hi90":9.45}},"baseline_moves":["Wendy Yuan (independent 2024, 6.3%) not running: transferred","Dickens Cheung (independent 2024, 3.4%) not running: transferred","Sunny Ho (independent 2024, 1.5%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Hon Chan (elected Conservative 2024, removed from caucus March 2026) is not on the ballot.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: loss of incumbent."}]},{"id":"317","name":"Richmond-Queensborough","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Steve Kooner","share":50.9},"shares_2024":{"CON":50.9,"NDP":44.1,"IND":1.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":43.59,"CON":49.72,"GRN":0.37,"ONEBC":2.06,"CENTRE":4.26},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Steve Kooner","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6299,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.37,"CON":0.6299,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":46.33,"CON":51.02,"GRN":2.65,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.58,"median":46.12,"hi90":59.54},"CON":{"lo90":37.25,"median":50.94,"hi90":64.38},"GRN":{"lo90":0.15,"median":2.23,"hi90":8.62}},"baseline_moves":["Cindy Wu (independent 2024, 3.7%) not running: transferred","Errol E. Povah (independent 2024, 1.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"318","name":"Richmond-Steveston","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Kelly Greene","share":44.3},"shares_2024":{"NDP":44.3,"CON":42.2,"IND":10.1,"GRN":3.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.38,"CON":43.19,"GRN":3.4,"ONEBC":1.78,"CENTRE":6.87,"OTH":0.37},"running":["NDP","CON","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Kelly Greene","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.6535,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.6535,"CON":0.3461,"CENTRE":0.0004},"point":{"NDP":47.26,"CON":41.63,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":7.29,"OTH":3.81},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":33.43,"median":47.16,"hi90":60.23},"CON":{"lo90":28.51,"median":41.61,"hi90":55.12},"CENTRE":{"lo90":1.25,"median":7.01,"hi90":14.23},"OTH":{"lo90":0.28,"median":3.51,"hi90":9.19}},"baseline_moves":["Jackie Lee (independent 2024, 10.1%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Kelly Greene (NDP) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate: loss of incumbent (The Writ docks a party 3-4 points when its incumbent leaves)."},{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Jackie Lee took 10.1% as an independent in 2024; not running. Her vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"319","name":"Saanich North and the Islands","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"GRN","name":"Rob Botterell","share":36.2},"shares_2024":{"GRN":36.2,"NDP":32.2,"CON":29.8,"IND":1.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":31.48,"CON":28.48,"GRN":35.89,"ONEBC":1.17,"CENTRE":2.99},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Rob Botterell","party_at_dissolution":"GRN","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"GRN","prob":0.7606,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1563,"CON":0.0831,"GRN":0.7606},"point":{"NDP":29.39,"CON":24.71,"GRN":43.27,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":2.63,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":14.89,"median":28.98,"hi90":44.23},"CON":{"lo90":11.8,"median":24.9,"hi90":39.72},"GRN":{"lo90":27.13,"median":42.69,"hi90":57.8},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.26,"hi90":8.28}},"baseline_moves":["Amy Haysom (independent 2024, 1.9%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"green_seat","note":"One of the Greens' two 2024 seats. Rob Botterell (Green MLA) is not running; Green leader Emily Lowan is the candidate. CentreBC also runs.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"High. The Green hold depends on the candidate and on NDP-Green tactical voting, neither of which is modelled; the riding is close to a three-way contest."}]},{"id":"320","name":"Saanich South","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Lana Popham","share":49.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":49.8,"CON":32.4,"GRN":17.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":48.28,"CON":30.3,"GRN":17.63,"ONEBC":1.23,"CENTRE":2.56},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Lana Popham","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8688,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8688,"CON":0.0983,"GRN":0.0329},"point":{"NDP":48.1,"CON":28.67,"GRN":23.23,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.74,"median":47.96,"hi90":62.8},"CON":{"lo90":15.68,"median":28.91,"hi90":43.37},"GRN":{"lo90":10.34,"median":22.77,"hi90":36.09}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Lana Popham (NDP) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate: loss of incumbent (The Writ docks a party 3-4 points when its incumbent leaves)."}]},{"id":"321","name":"Salmon Arm-Shuswap","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"David L. Williams","share":52.1},"shares_2024":{"CON":52.1,"NDP":30.4,"IND":9.2,"GRN":7.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":30.87,"CON":51.78,"GRN":7.51,"ONEBC":2.16,"CENTRE":7.69},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"David Williams","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8703,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1278,"CON":0.8703,"GRN":0.0014,"ONEBC":0.0001,"CENTRE":0.0004},"point":{"NDP":30.89,"CON":48.33,"GRN":11.03,"ONEBC":2.24,"CENTRE":7.52,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":16.33,"median":30.52,"hi90":44.8},"CON":{"lo90":33.51,"median":48.38,"hi90":63.42},"GRN":{"lo90":1.98,"median":10.71,"hi90":21.05},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.85,"hi90":7.26},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.42,"median":7.13,"hi90":15.56}},"baseline_moves":["Greg McCune (independent 2024, 9.2%) not running: transferred","Sherry Roy (independent 2024, 1.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"322","name":"Skeena","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Claire RattÃ©e","share":51.2},"shares_2024":{"CON":51.2,"NDP":44.4,"GRN":3.3,"OTH":1.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":42.67,"CON":47.03,"GRN":3.29,"ONEBC":1.95,"CENTRE":4.03,"OTH":1.03},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Claire Rattée","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5331,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4664,"CON":0.5331,"GRN":0.0005},"point":{"NDP":45.18,"CON":46.42,"GRN":6.35,"ONEBC":2.05,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":29.86,"median":44.94,"hi90":59.29},"CON":{"lo90":31.57,"median":46.35,"hi90":61.11},"GRN":{"lo90":0.46,"median":6.02,"hi90":14.97},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.62,"hi90":7.12}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Claire Rattée: left or was removed from the Conservative caucus in September 2026 and returned on 2026-09-21; Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low."}]},{"id":"323","name":"Surrey City Centre","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Amna Shah","share":46.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":46.7,"CON":45.1,"GRN":6.1,"IND":1.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":45.17,"CON":42.1,"GRN":6.02,"ONEBC":1.74,"CENTRE":3.96,"OTH":1.02},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Amna Shah","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7512,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7512,"CON":0.2488},"point":{"NDP":51.65,"CON":41.19,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":2.1,"CENTRE":5.07,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":37.47,"median":51.41,"hi90":64.8},"CON":{"lo90":27.58,"median":41.12,"hi90":54.87},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.17,"median":1.79,"hi90":6.29},"CENTRE":{"lo90":1.05,"median":4.81,"hi90":10.97}},"baseline_moves":["Saeed Naguib (independent 2024, 1.1%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"324","name":"Surrey-Cloverdale","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Elenore Sturko","share":48.3},"shares_2024":{"CON":48.3,"NDP":45.6,"GRN":5.4,"OTH":0.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":43.81,"CON":44.49,"GRN":5.35,"ONEBC":1.84,"CENTRE":3.8,"OTH":0.72},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Elenore Sturko","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":true,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.581,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.581,"CON":0.4185,"GRN":0.0003,"CENTRE":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":44.5,"CON":41.53,"GRN":8.39,"ONEBC":1.92,"CENTRE":3.67,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":29.88,"median":44.36,"hi90":58.32},"CON":{"lo90":27.72,"median":41.4,"hi90":55.55},"GRN":{"lo90":0.9,"median":8.06,"hi90":16.88},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.55,"hi90":6.2},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.4,"hi90":9.43}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_moved","note":"Elenore Sturko (MLA, elected Conservative 2024) is running in Surrey South instead; open seat.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: loss of incumbent."}]},{"id":"325","name":"Surrey-Fleetwood","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Jagrup Brar","share":48.6},"shares_2024":{"NDP":48.6,"CON":44.9,"GRN":6.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":46.85,"CON":41.51,"GRN":6.4,"ONEBC":1.71,"CENTRE":3.54},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jagrup Brar","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7293,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7293,"CON":0.2696,"GRN":0.0011},"point":{"NDP":47.11,"CON":38.16,"GRN":9.61,"ONEBC":1.76,"CENTRE":3.37,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.53,"median":46.93,"hi90":60.61},"CON":{"lo90":24.52,"median":38.0,"hi90":51.77},"GRN":{"lo90":1.58,"median":9.25,"hi90":18.66},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.43,"hi90":5.92},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.14,"hi90":8.94}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"326","name":"Surrey-Guildford","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Garry Begg","share":46.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":46.9,"CON":46.8,"GRN":4.3,"IND":1.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":45.62,"CON":44.27,"GRN":4.41,"ONEBC":1.83,"CENTRE":3.78,"OTH":0.1},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Garry Begg","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5797,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5797,"CON":0.4198,"GRN":0.0005},"point":{"NDP":46.15,"CON":43.11,"GRN":7.39,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.35},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":31.92,"median":45.86,"hi90":59.47},"CON":{"lo90":29.75,"median":43.16,"hi90":56.62},"GRN":{"lo90":0.99,"median":7.16,"hi90":14.94},"OTH":{"lo90":0.06,"median":3.02,"hi90":8.69}},"baseline_moves":["Kabir Qurban (independent 2024, 1.9%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"327","name":"Surrey-Newton","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Jessie Sunner","share":51.2},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.2,"CON":43.0,"OTH":2.4,"IND":2.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":49.97,"CON":41.29,"ONEBC":1.7,"CENTRE":4.65,"OTH":2.39},"running":["NDP","CON","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jessie Sunner","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7851,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7851,"CON":0.2149},"point":{"NDP":53.61,"CON":41.5,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":4.88,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":39.56,"median":53.59,"hi90":67.59},"CON":{"lo90":27.44,"median":41.3,"hi90":55.43},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.25,"median":4.66,"hi90":11.08}},"baseline_moves":["Japreet Lehal (independent 2024, 2.2%) not running: transferred","Joginder Singh Randhawa (independent 2024, 1.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"328","name":"Surrey North","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Mandeep Dhaliwal","share":50.7},"shares_2024":{"CON":50.7,"NDP":43.3,"GRN":4.2,"OTH":1.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":41.69,"CON":46.86,"GRN":4.2,"ONEBC":1.94,"CENTRE":4.25,"OTH":1.06},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Mandeep Dhaliwal","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5486,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4511,"CON":0.5486,"GRN":0.0002,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":40.82,"CON":42.32,"GRN":6.7,"ONEBC":1.95,"CENTRE":3.98,"OTH":4.23},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":27.03,"median":40.52,"hi90":53.91},"CON":{"lo90":28.61,"median":42.34,"hi90":55.6},"GRN":{"lo90":0.1,"median":6.34,"hi90":14.23},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.63,"hi90":6.01},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.71,"hi90":9.75},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.98,"hi90":10.04}},"baseline_moves":["Hobby Nijjar (independent 2024, 0.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"329","name":"Surrey-Panorama","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Bryan Tepper","share":49.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":49.6,"NDP":48.1,"OTH":2.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":46.25,"CON":45.67,"ONEBC":1.89,"CENTRE":3.9,"OTH":2.29},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Bryan Tepper","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5664,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5664,"CON":0.4336},"point":{"NDP":48.64,"CON":45.78,"GRN":1.68,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":3.89,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":33.75,"median":48.17,"hi90":61.98},"CON":{"lo90":31.62,"median":45.76,"hi90":59.74},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.25,"hi90":7.78},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.54,"hi90":9.78}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"330","name":"Surrey-Serpentine River","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Linda Hepner","share":49.7},"shares_2024":{"CON":49.7,"NDP":47.5,"IND":2.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":46.13,"CON":46.92,"ONEBC":1.94,"CENTRE":4.9,"OTH":0.1},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Linda Hepner","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5956,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5956,"CON":0.4044},"point":{"NDP":46.64,"CON":43.13,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":2.02,"CENTRE":4.86,"OTH":3.35},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.62,"median":46.36,"hi90":59.7},"CON":{"lo90":29.3,"median":42.81,"hi90":56.55},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.69,"hi90":6.26},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.29,"median":4.68,"hi90":11.16},"OTH":{"lo90":0.03,"median":3.08,"hi90":8.79}},"baseline_moves":["Jim McMurtry (independent 2024, 2.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Linda Hepner (elected Conservative 2024) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"331","name":"Surrey South","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Brent Chapman","share":58.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":58.8,"NDP":41.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":39.39,"CON":53.75,"ONEBC":2.24,"CENTRE":4.63},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Brent Chapman","party_at_dissolution":"ONEBC","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8043,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1955,"CON":0.8043,"GRN":0.0001,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":39.25,"CON":51.44,"GRN":1.6,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":4.4,"OTH":3.32},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":25.25,"median":38.74,"hi90":52.17},"CON":{"lo90":37.33,"median":51.39,"hi90":64.59},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.22,"hi90":7.26},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.13,"hi90":10.46},"OTH":{"lo90":0.07,"median":2.99,"hi90":8.76}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"new_party_leader","note":"Elenore Sturko (CentreBC leader; MLA for Surrey-Cloverdale, elected Conservative 2024) runs here. Brent Chapman (elected Conservative 2024 with 58.8%, crossed to OneBC on 2026-09-22) is not on the ballot.","v1":"Not adjusted in the default; seeded in the sensitivity run.","why_it_may_matter":"High. A party leader and sitting MLA could take far more than CentreBC's provincial share. The 'seeded' sensitivity adds 7.5 points."}]},{"id":"332","name":"Surrey-White Rock","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Trevor Halford","share":52.3},"shares_2024":{"CON":52.3,"NDP":45.3,"OTH":2.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":43.47,"CON":48.03,"ONEBC":1.99,"CENTRE":4.12,"OTH":2.39},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Trevor Halford","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5315,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4683,"CON":0.5315,"OTH":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":43.01,"CON":43.86,"GRN":1.59,"ONEBC":2.02,"CENTRE":3.88,"OTH":5.63},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":28.47,"median":42.49,"hi90":55.92},"CON":{"lo90":30.0,"median":43.78,"hi90":57.04},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.21,"hi90":7.15},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.7,"hi90":6.14},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.58,"hi90":9.6},"OTH":{"lo90":0.21,"median":5.41,"hi90":11.66}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Trevor Halford: left or was removed from the Conservative caucus in September 2026 and returned on 2026-09-21; Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low."}]},{"id":"333","name":"Vancouver-Fraserview","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"George Chow","share":57.2},"shares_2024":{"NDP":57.2,"CON":36.6,"GRN":6.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":55.43,"CON":34.15,"GRN":6.14,"ONEBC":1.39,"CENTRE":2.89},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"George Chow","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.931,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.931,"CON":0.0684,"GRN":0.0006},"point":{"NDP":56.86,"CON":33.53,"GRN":9.62,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":42.55,"median":56.78,"hi90":70.09},"CON":{"lo90":20.76,"median":33.58,"hi90":47.16},"GRN":{"lo90":1.84,"median":9.34,"hi90":18.33}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"George Chow (NDP) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate: loss of incumbent (The Writ docks a party 3-4 points when its incumbent leaves)."}]},{"id":"334","name":"Vancouver-Hastings","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Niki Sharma","share":64.1},"shares_2024":{"NDP":64.1,"CON":24.3,"GRN":10.9,"IND":0.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":62.81,"CON":23.26,"GRN":10.82,"ONEBC":0.94,"CENTRE":2.16,"OTH":0.02},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Niki Sharma","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9882,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9882,"CON":0.009,"GRN":0.0028},"point":{"NDP":60.41,"CON":20.14,"GRN":14.39,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":1.9,"OTH":3.16},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":46.11,"median":60.07,"hi90":72.81},"CON":{"lo90":9.41,"median":20.17,"hi90":32.46},"GRN":{"lo90":4.73,"median":14.06,"hi90":24.36},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.57,"hi90":6.44},"OTH":{"lo90":0.01,"median":2.81,"hi90":8.41}},"baseline_moves":["Zsolt Kiss (independent 2024, 0.7%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"335","name":"Vancouver-Kensington","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Mable Elmore","share":60.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":60.9,"CON":31.5,"GRN":7.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":59.24,"CON":29.56,"GRN":7.52,"ONEBC":1.2,"CENTRE":2.49},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Mable Elmore","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9728,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9728,"CON":0.0266,"GRN":0.0006},"point":{"NDP":60.25,"CON":28.53,"GRN":11.22,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":46.17,"median":59.99,"hi90":73.3},"CON":{"lo90":16.73,"median":28.62,"hi90":42.18},"GRN":{"lo90":2.82,"median":10.94,"hi90":20.47}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"336","name":"Vancouver-Langara","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Sunita Dhir","share":48.4},"shares_2024":{"NDP":48.4,"CON":46.0,"GRN":5.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":46.66,"CON":42.51,"GRN":5.45,"ONEBC":1.75,"CENTRE":3.63},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Sunita Dhir","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.6673,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.6673,"CON":0.3324,"GRN":0.0003},"point":{"NDP":47.22,"CON":40.86,"GRN":8.45,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":3.46,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.76,"median":47.17,"hi90":60.96},"CON":{"lo90":27.18,"median":40.83,"hi90":54.93},"GRN":{"lo90":1.05,"median":8.2,"hi90":17.02},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.16,"hi90":8.95}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"337","name":"Vancouver-Little Mountain","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Christine Boyle","share":62.1},"shares_2024":{"NDP":62.1,"CON":30.6,"GRN":7.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":60.46,"CON":28.74,"GRN":7.22,"ONEBC":1.16,"CENTRE":2.42},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Christine Boyle","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9795,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9795,"CON":0.02,"GRN":0.0005},"point":{"NDP":61.47,"CON":27.68,"GRN":10.85,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":47.34,"median":61.32,"hi90":74.47},"CON":{"lo90":15.71,"median":27.8,"hi90":40.94},"GRN":{"lo90":2.7,"median":10.56,"hi90":19.93}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"338","name":"Vancouver-Point Grey","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"David Eby","share":56.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":56.8,"CON":34.5,"GRN":8.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":55.09,"CON":32.24,"GRN":8.64,"ONEBC":1.31,"CENTRE":2.72},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"David Eby","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9438,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9438,"CON":0.0552,"GRN":0.001},"point":{"NDP":55.14,"CON":30.04,"GRN":12.29,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":2.53,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":40.47,"median":54.99,"hi90":68.85},"CON":{"lo90":17.4,"median":30.09,"hi90":43.17},"GRN":{"lo90":3.14,"median":11.96,"hi90":21.96},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.2,"hi90":7.54}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"leader_seat","note":"NDP leader David Eby.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low (safe seats)."}]},{"id":"339","name":"Vancouver-Quilchena","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Dallas Brodie","share":51.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":51.6,"NDP":38.9,"GRN":7.8,"IND":1.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":37.6,"CON":47.98,"GRN":7.77,"ONEBC":1.99,"CENTRE":4.66},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Dallas Brodie","party_at_dissolution":"ONEBC","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6848,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3141,"CON":0.6848,"GRN":0.0011},"point":{"NDP":37.67,"CON":44.48,"GRN":11.32,"ONEBC":2.06,"CENTRE":4.48,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":23.68,"median":37.43,"hi90":51.29},"CON":{"lo90":30.1,"median":44.4,"hi90":58.7},"GRN":{"lo90":2.77,"median":10.97,"hi90":20.58},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.72,"hi90":6.42},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.23,"hi90":10.71}},"baseline_moves":["Caroline Ying-Mei Wang (independent 2024, 1.7%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"new_party_leader","note":"Dallas Brodie (OneBC interim leader; elected Conservative 2024 with 51.6%) runs again for OneBC against a new Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in the default; seeded in the sensitivity run.","why_it_may_matter":"High. Splits the right-of-centre vote in a seat the Conservatives won narrowly in 2024; a sitting MLA's personal vote is not in the model. The 'seeded' sensitivity adds 15 points."}]},{"id":"340","name":"Vancouver-Renfrew","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Adrian Dix","share":63.2},"shares_2024":{"NDP":63.2,"CON":30.7,"GRN":6.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":61.54,"CON":28.8,"GRN":6.07,"ONEBC":1.17,"CENTRE":2.42},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Adrian Dix","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9788,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9788,"CON":0.0207,"GRN":0.0005},"point":{"NDP":61.9,"CON":26.69,"GRN":9.16,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":2.25,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":47.2,"median":61.64,"hi90":74.84},"CON":{"lo90":14.15,"median":26.74,"hi90":39.89},"GRN":{"lo90":1.29,"median":8.91,"hi90":17.92},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.91,"hi90":7.09}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"341","name":"Vancouver-South Granville","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Brenda Bailey","share":64.3},"shares_2024":{"NDP":64.3,"CON":25.0,"GRN":10.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":62.83,"CON":23.59,"GRN":10.66,"ONEBC":0.95,"CENTRE":1.97},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Brenda Bailey","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9911,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9911,"CON":0.0071,"GRN":0.0018},"point":{"NDP":62.29,"CON":20.3,"GRN":14.67,"ONEBC":0.96,"CENTRE":1.78,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":47.51,"median":62.0,"hi90":75.25},"CON":{"lo90":8.73,"median":20.14,"hi90":32.83},"GRN":{"lo90":4.93,"median":14.46,"hi90":25.02},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.59,"hi90":4.39},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.45,"hi90":6.37}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Brenda Bailey (NDP) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate: loss of incumbent (The Writ docks a party 3-4 points when its incumbent leaves)."}]},{"id":"342","name":"Vancouver-Strathcona","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Joan Phillip","share":68.2},"shares_2024":{"NDP":68.2,"CON":17.1,"GRN":13.1,"OTH":1.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":66.99,"CON":16.34,"GRN":12.99,"ONEBC":0.65,"CENTRE":1.36,"OTH":1.67},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Vacant","party_at_dissolution":null,"not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":"vacant"},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9943,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9943,"CON":0.0027,"GRN":0.003},"point":{"NDP":64.35,"CON":13.94,"GRN":16.98,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":4.73},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":50.14,"median":64.11,"hi90":76.53},"CON":{"lo90":4.66,"median":14.04,"hi90":25.12},"GRN":{"lo90":6.94,"median":16.69,"hi90":27.81},"OTH":{"lo90":0.1,"median":4.54,"hi90":10.41}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"vacant","note":"Vacant: Joan Phillip (NDP) died 2026-08-28; no by-election. NDP candidate Amanda Burrows.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low (safe NDP seat)."}]},{"id":"343","name":"Vancouver-West End","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Spencer Chandra Herbert","share":63.0},"shares_2024":{"NDP":63.0,"CON":27.2,"GRN":9.1,"IND":0.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":61.63,"CON":26.07,"GRN":9.06,"ONEBC":1.05,"CENTRE":2.19},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Spencer Chandra Herbert","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9832,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9832,"CON":0.0152,"GRN":0.0016},"point":{"NDP":62.23,"CON":24.75,"GRN":13.02,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":47.92,"median":62.01,"hi90":75.2},"CON":{"lo90":13.4,"median":24.87,"hi90":37.74},"GRN":{"lo90":4.05,"median":12.74,"hi90":22.6}},"baseline_moves":["Carl Turnbull (independent 2024, 0.7%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"344","name":"Vancouver-Yaletown","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Terry Yung","share":49.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":49.8,"CON":43.4,"GRN":6.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":48.01,"CON":40.12,"GRN":6.81,"ONEBC":1.65,"CENTRE":3.41},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Terry Yung","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7487,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7487,"CON":0.2508,"GRN":0.0005},"point":{"NDP":48.39,"CON":38.26,"GRN":10.11,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":3.24,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":34.19,"median":48.13,"hi90":61.83},"CON":{"lo90":24.92,"median":38.38,"hi90":52.07},"GRN":{"lo90":2.12,"median":9.79,"hi90":19.06},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.9,"hi90":8.73}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"345","name":"Vernon-Lumby","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Harwinder Sandhu","share":42.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":42.7,"CON":41.0,"IND":15.4,"OTH":1.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":40.89,"CON":51.58,"ONEBC":2.14,"CENTRE":4.43,"OTH":0.95},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Harwinder Sandhu","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6906,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3092,"CON":0.6906,"GRN":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":43.87,"CON":51.61,"GRN":2.24,"ONEBC":2.28,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":28.25,"median":43.15,"hi90":57.7},"CON":{"lo90":36.9,"median":51.39,"hi90":66.08},"GRN":{"lo90":0.07,"median":1.94,"hi90":9.33},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.85,"hi90":7.3}},"baseline_moves":["Kevin Acton (independent 2024) runs again as CON"],"notes":[{"type":"returning_candidate","note":"Kevin Acton took 15.4% as an independent in 2024 and is the 2026 Conservative candidate (assumed the same person); v1 moves his 2024 vote to the Conservatives.","v1":"His 2024 votes are assigned to the Conservatives (rule: a returning candidate keeps their vote).","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: if his 2024 voters do not follow him, the Conservative share is overstated."}]},{"id":"346","name":"Victoria-Beacon Hill","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Grace Lore","share":47.4},"shares_2024":{"NDP":47.4,"GRN":33.5,"CON":19.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":46.34,"CON":18.13,"GRN":33.28,"ONEBC":0.73,"CENTRE":1.51},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Grace Lore","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5936,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5936,"CON":0.0081,"GRN":0.3983},"point":{"NDP":43.98,"CON":15.58,"GRN":40.44,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":28.42,"median":43.78,"hi90":59.44},"CON":{"lo90":4.96,"median":15.93,"hi90":29.02},"GRN":{"lo90":24.15,"median":40.05,"hi90":54.76}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"notable_candidate","note":"The Conservatives dropped their candidate, Joachim Agou, on 2026-10-08 over social-media posts; he stays on the ballot as the Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low (safe NDP seat), but the Conservative share is likely overstated."}]},{"id":"347","name":"Victoria-Swan Lake","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Nina Krieger","share":56.0},"shares_2024":{"NDP":56.0,"GRN":23.2,"CON":20.2,"OTH":0.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":54.85,"CON":19.15,"GRN":23.01,"ONEBC":0.77,"CENTRE":1.6,"OTH":0.61},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Nina Krieger","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9296,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9296,"CON":0.008,"GRN":0.0624},"point":{"NDP":53.63,"CON":17.06,"GRN":29.31,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":37.91,"median":53.29,"hi90":68.52},"CON":{"lo90":6.07,"median":17.44,"hi90":30.35},"GRN":{"lo90":14.84,"median":28.79,"hi90":43.09}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"348","name":"West Kelowna-Peachland","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Macklin McCall","share":50.9},"shares_2024":{"CON":50.9,"NDP":27.9,"IND":21.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":31.92,"CON":58.94,"GRN":1.57,"ONEBC":2.47,"CENTRE":5.1},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Macklin McCall","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9452,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0547,"CON":0.9452,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":34.62,"CON":61.08,"GRN":4.3,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":20.68,"median":34.22,"hi90":48.28},"CON":{"lo90":46.65,"median":61.0,"hi90":74.87},"GRN":{"lo90":0.28,"median":3.9,"hi90":11.79}},"baseline_moves":["Stephen Johnston (independent 2024, 21.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Stephen Johnston took 21.2% as an independent in 2024; not running. His vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"349","name":"West Vancouver-Capilano","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Lynne Block","share":46.7},"shares_2024":{"CON":46.7,"NDP":27.1,"IND":20.6,"GRN":5.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":31.08,"CON":54.88,"GRN":7.01,"ONEBC":2.29,"CENTRE":4.74},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Lynne Block","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":true,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9202,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.079,"CON":0.9202,"GRN":0.0008},"point":{"NDP":32.86,"CON":53.75,"GRN":11.01,"ONEBC":2.38,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":19.72,"median":32.69,"hi90":45.71},"CON":{"lo90":39.96,"median":53.78,"hi90":67.43},"GRN":{"lo90":2.73,"median":10.7,"hi90":20.36},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.03,"hi90":6.97}},"baseline_moves":["Karin Kirkpatrick (independent 2024, 20.6%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_moved","note":"Lynne Block (elected Conservative 2024) is running in North Vancouver-Seymour instead; open seat. In 2024 Karin Kirkpatrick (ex-BC United, later CentreBC founder) took 20.6% here as an independent; that vote is transferred.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: open seat; where Kirkpatrick's 2024 vote goes is an assumption."}]},{"id":"350","name":"West Vancouver-Sea to Sky","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"GRN","name":"Jeremy Valeriote","share":38.1},"shares_2024":{"GRN":38.1,"CON":35.6,"NDP":26.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":25.35,"CON":32.85,"GRN":37.64,"ONEBC":1.35,"CENTRE":2.8},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jeremy Valeriote","party_at_dissolution":"GRN","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"GRN","prob":0.835,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0478,"CON":0.1172,"GRN":0.835},"point":{"NDP":23.53,"CON":28.79,"GRN":45.22,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":2.45,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":11.47,"median":23.29,"hi90":36.7},"CON":{"lo90":16.26,"median":28.94,"hi90":42.81},"GRN":{"lo90":29.68,"median":44.89,"hi90":58.72},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.1,"hi90":7.37}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"green_seat","note":"The Greens' other 2024 seat. Jeremy Valeriote (Green MLA, interim leader 2025) runs again; CentreBC runs Dan Wood.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"High: Green incumbency is not modelled, so v1 probably understates the Green."}]}],"changes":{"from_file":"2026-09-14_ipsos.json","average":{"NDP":-0.85,"CON":-0.33,"GRN":0.9,"ONEBC":0.01,"CENTRE":0.03,"OTH":0.23},"seat_median":{"NDP":-1.0,"CON":1.0,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"p_majority":{"NDP":-0.0278,"CON":0.0119,"GRN":0.0001,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"p_minority":0.0158,"leader_changes":["271"]},"average_series":{"NDP":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-22",null],["2024-10-29",null],["2024-11-05",null],["2024-11-12",null],["2024-11-19",null],["2024-11-26",null],["2024-12-03",null],["2024-12-10",null],["2024-12-17",null],["2024-12-24",null],["2024-12-31",null],["2025-01-07",null],["2025-01-14",null],["2025-01-21",null],["2025-01-28",45.54],["2025-02-04",45.74],["2025-02-11",45.87],["2025-02-18",45.9],["2025-02-25",45.83],["2025-03-04",45.67],["2025-03-11",45.46],["2025-03-18",45.23],["2025-03-25",45.02],["2025-04-01",44.88],["2025-04-08",44.84],["2025-04-15",44.84],["2025-04-22",44.82],["2025-04-29",44.74],["2025-05-06",44.6],["2025-05-13",44.4],["2025-05-20",44.15],["2025-05-27",43.84],["2025-06-03",43.49],["2025-06-10",43.13],["2025-06-17",42.78],["2025-06-24",42.46],["2025-07-01",42.18],["2025-07-08",41.94],["2025-07-15",41.76],["2025-07-22",41.66],["2025-07-29",41.73],["2025-08-05",41.98],["2025-08-12",42.28],["2025-08-19",42.58],["2025-08-26",42.9],["2025-09-02",43.25],["2025-09-09",43.61],["2025-09-16",43.92],["2025-09-23",44.15],["2025-09-30",44.28],["2025-10-07",44.31],["2025-10-14",44.24],["2025-10-21",44.05],["2025-10-28",43.75],["2025-11-04",43.38],["2025-11-11",43.0],["2025-11-18",42.72],["2025-11-25",42.54],["2025-12-02",42.44],["2025-12-09",42.39],["2025-12-16",42.37],["2025-12-23",42.37],["2025-12-30",42.39],["2026-01-06",42.42],["2026-01-13",42.37],["2026-01-20",42.18],["2026-01-27",41.83],["2026-02-03",41.43],["2026-02-10",41.05],["2026-02-17",40.72],["2026-02-24",40.48],["2026-03-03",40.33],["2026-03-10",40.25],["2026-03-17",40.23],["2026-03-24",40.21],["2026-03-31",40.13],["2026-04-07",39.96],["2026-04-14",39.69],["2026-04-21",39.38],["2026-04-28",39.13],["2026-05-05",39.04],["2026-05-12",39.14],["2026-05-19",39.36],["2026-05-26",39.57],["2026-06-02",39.74],["2026-06-09",39.88],["2026-06-16",40.09],["2026-06-23",40.45],["2026-06-30",40.97],["2026-07-07",41.51],["2026-07-14",41.88],["2026-07-21",42.01],["2026-07-28",41.99],["2026-08-04",41.92],["2026-08-11",41.88],["2026-08-18",41.9],["2026-08-25",42.01],["2026-09-01",42.2],["2026-09-08",42.42],["2026-09-15",42.61]],"CON":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-22",null],["2024-10-29",null],["2024-11-05",null],["2024-11-12",null],["2024-11-19",null],["2024-11-26",null],["2024-12-03",null],["2024-12-10",null],["2024-12-17",null],["2024-12-24",null],["2024-12-31",null],["2025-01-07",null],["2025-01-14",null],["2025-01-21",null],["2025-01-28",41.58],["2025-02-04",41.53],["2025-02-11",41.49],["2025-02-18",41.49],["2025-02-25",41.52],["2025-03-04",41.59],["2025-03-11",41.72],["2025-03-18",41.99],["2025-03-25",42.52],["2025-04-01",43.38],["2025-04-08",44.24],["2025-04-15",44.61],["2025-04-22",44.43],["2025-04-29",43.95],["2025-05-06",43.36],["2025-05-13",42.79],["2025-05-20",42.35],["2025-05-27",42.08],["2025-06-03",42.0],["2025-06-10",42.08],["2025-06-17",42.28],["2025-06-24",42.52],["2025-07-01",42.78],["2025-07-08",43.02],["2025-07-15",43.24],["2025-07-22",43.44],["2025-07-29",43.57],["2025-08-05",43.51],["2025-08-12",43.23],["2025-08-19",42.8],["2025-08-26",42.27],["2025-09-02",41.69],["2025-09-09",41.11],["2025-09-16",40.62],["2025-09-23",40.24],["2025-09-30",40.0],["2025-10-07",39.85],["2025-10-14",39.76],["2025-10-21",39.7],["2025-10-28",39.62],["2025-11-04",39.53],["2025-11-11",39.42],["2025-11-18",39.35],["2025-11-25",39.34],["2025-12-02",39.4],["2025-12-09",39.49],["2025-12-16",39.58],["2025-12-23",39.64],["2025-12-30",39.64],["2026-01-06",39.55],["2026-01-13",39.43],["2026-01-20",39.42],["2026-01-27",39.58],["2026-02-03",39.86],["2026-02-10",40.16],["2026-02-17",40.44],["2026-02-24",40.64],["2026-03-03",40.72],["2026-03-10",40.64],["2026-03-17",40.41],["2026-03-24",40.06],["2026-03-31",39.69],["2026-04-07",39.43],["2026-04-14",39.44],["2026-04-21",39.79],["2026-04-28",40.51],["2026-05-05",41.52],["2026-05-12",42.59],["2026-05-19",43.45],["2026-05-26",43.99],["2026-06-02",44.23],["2026-06-09",44.25],["2026-06-16",44.06],["2026-06-23",43.63],["2026-06-30",42.98],["2026-07-07",42.27],["2026-07-14",41.72],["2026-07-21",41.38],["2026-07-28",41.17],["2026-08-04",40.98],["2026-08-11",40.69],["2026-08-18",40.24],["2026-08-25",39.6],["2026-09-01",38.82],["2026-09-08",38.03],["2026-09-15",37.35]],"GRN":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-22",null],["2024-10-29",null],["2024-11-05",null],["2024-11-12",null],["2024-11-19",null],["2024-11-26",null],["2024-12-03",null],["2024-12-10",null],["2024-12-17",null],["2024-12-24",null],["2024-12-31",null],["2025-01-07",null],["2025-01-14",null],["2025-01-21",null],["2025-01-28",9.34],["2025-02-04",9.3],["2025-02-11",9.31],["2025-02-18",9.39],["2025-02-25",9.51],["2025-03-04",9.67],["2025-03-11",9.82],["2025-03-18",9.88],["2025-03-25",9.74],["2025-04-01",9.29],["2025-04-08",8.69],["2025-04-15",8.31],["2025-04-22",8.26],["2025-04-29",8.39],["2025-05-06",8.59],["2025-05-13",8.75],["2025-05-20",8.83],["2025-05-27",8.81],["2025-06-03",8.69],["2025-06-10",8.5],["2025-06-17",8.27],["2025-06-24",8.04],["2025-07-01",7.83],["2025-07-08",7.67],["2025-07-15",7.61],["2025-07-22",7.78],["2025-07-29",8.34],["2025-08-05",9.16],["2025-08-12",9.73],["2025-08-19",9.97],["2025-08-26",10.04],["2025-09-02",10.03],["2025-09-09",9.99],["2025-09-16",9.92],["2025-09-23",9.84],["2025-09-30",9.76],["2025-10-07",9.69],["2025-10-14",9.63],["2025-10-21",9.58],["2025-10-28",9.53],["2025-11-04",9.49],["2025-11-11",9.44],["2025-11-18",9.42],["2025-11-25",9.42],["2025-12-02",9.44],["2025-12-09",9.47],["2025-12-16",9.51],["2025-12-23",9.55],["2025-12-30",9.61],["2026-01-06",9.69],["2026-01-13",9.85],["2026-01-20",10.06],["2026-01-27",10.28],["2026-02-03",10.47],["2026-02-10",10.61],["2026-02-17",10.71],["2026-02-24",10.79],["2026-03-03",10.88],["2026-03-10",11.0],["2026-03-17",11.18],["2026-03-24",11.46],["2026-03-31",11.81],["2026-04-07",12.17],["2026-04-14",12.47],["2026-04-21",12.59],["2026-04-28",12.43],["2026-05-05",11.95],["2026-05-12",11.23],["2026-05-19",10.51],["2026-05-26",10.0],["2026-06-02",9.74],["2026-06-09",9.71],["2026-06-16",9.86],["2026-06-23",10.18],["2026-06-30",10.62],["2026-07-07",11.05],["2026-07-14",11.36],["2026-07-21",11.51],["2026-07-28",11.54],["2026-08-04",11.51],["2026-08-11",11.45],["2026-08-18",11.4],["2026-08-25",11.36],["2026-09-01",11.34],["2026-09-08",11.35],["2026-09-15",11.38]],"ONEBC":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-22",null],["2024-10-29",null],["2024-11-05",null],["2024-11-12",null],["2024-11-19",null],["2024-11-26",null],["2024-12-03",null],["2024-12-10",null],["2024-12-17",null],["2024-12-24",null],["2024-12-31",null],["2025-01-07",null],["2025-01-14",null],["2025-01-21",null],["2025-01-28",null],["2025-02-04",null],["2025-02-11",null],["2025-02-18",null],["2025-02-25",null],["2025-03-04",null],["2025-03-11",null],["2025-03-18",null],["2025-03-25",null],["2025-04-01",null],["2025-04-08",null],["2025-04-15",null],["2025-04-22",null],["2025-04-29",null],["2025-05-06",null],["2025-05-13",null],["2025-05-20",null],["2025-05-27",null],["2025-06-03",null],["2025-06-10",null],["2025-06-17",null],["2025-06-24",null],["2025-07-01",null],["2025-07-08",null],["2025-07-15",null],["2025-07-22",null],["2025-07-29",null],["2025-08-05",null],["2025-08-12",null],["2025-08-19",null],["2025-08-26",null],["2025-09-02",null],["2025-09-09",null],["2025-09-16",null],["2025-09-23",null],["2025-09-30",null],["2025-10-07",2.75],["2025-10-14",2.99],["2025-10-21",3.34],["2025-10-28",3.85],["2025-11-04",4.51],["2025-11-11",5.22],["2025-11-18",5.85],["2025-11-25",6.3],["2025-12-02",6.58],["2025-12-09",6.73],["2025-12-16",6.8],["2025-12-23",6.79],["2025-12-30",6.71],["2026-01-06",6.53],["2026-01-13",6.27],["2026-01-20",6.01],["2026-01-27",5.81],["2026-02-03",5.7],["2026-02-10",5.64],["2026-02-17",5.61],["2026-02-24",5.61],["2026-03-03",5.64],["2026-03-10",5.73],["2026-03-17",5.93],["2026-03-24",6.21],["2026-03-31",6.54],["2026-04-07",6.86],["2026-04-14",7.1],["2026-04-21",7.22],["2026-04-28",7.11],["2026-05-05",6.61],["2026-05-12",5.62],["2026-05-19",4.36],["2026-05-26",3.28],["2026-06-02",2.6],["2026-06-09",2.23],["2026-06-16",2.01],["2026-06-23",1.83],["2026-06-30",1.65],["2026-07-07",1.5],["2026-07-14",1.42],["2026-07-21",1.39],["2026-07-28",1.39],["2026-08-04",1.4],["2026-08-11",1.42],["2026-08-18",1.45],["2026-08-25",1.49],["2026-09-01",1.56],["2026-09-08",1.64],["2026-09-15",1.73]],"CENTRE":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-22",null],["2024-10-29",null],["2024-11-05",null],["2024-11-12",null],["2024-11-19",null],["2024-11-26",null],["2024-12-03",null],["2024-12-10",null],["2024-12-17",null],["2024-12-24",null],["2024-12-31",null],["2025-01-07",null],["2025-01-14",null],["2025-01-21",null],["2025-01-28",null],["2025-02-04",null],["2025-02-11",null],["2025-02-18",null],["2025-02-25",null],["2025-03-04",null],["2025-03-11",null],["2025-03-18",null],["2025-03-25",null],["2025-04-01",null],["2025-04-08",null],["2025-04-15",null],["2025-04-22",null],["2025-04-29",null],["2025-05-06",null],["2025-05-13",null],["2025-05-20",null],["2025-05-27",null],["2025-06-03",null],["2025-06-10",null],["2025-06-17",null],["2025-06-24",null],["2025-07-01",null],["2025-07-08",null],["2025-07-15",null],["2025-07-22",null],["2025-07-29",null],["2025-08-05",null],["2025-08-12",null],["2025-08-19",null],["2025-08-26",null],["2025-09-02",null],["2025-09-09",null],["2025-09-16",null],["2025-09-23",null],["2025-09-30",null],["2025-10-07",2.43],["2025-10-14",2.32],["2025-10-21",2.2],["2025-10-28",2.1],["2025-11-04",2.0],["2025-11-11",1.93],["2025-11-18",1.9],["2025-11-25",1.89],["2025-12-02",null],["2025-12-09",null],["2025-12-16",null],["2025-12-23",null],["2025-12-30",null],["2026-01-06",null],["2026-01-13",null],["2026-01-20",null],["2026-01-27",null],["2026-02-03",null],["2026-02-10",null],["2026-02-17",null],["2026-02-24",null],["2026-03-03",null],["2026-03-10",null],["2026-03-17",null],["2026-03-24",null],["2026-03-31",null],["2026-04-07",null],["2026-04-14",null],["2026-04-21",null],["2026-04-28",null],["2026-05-05",null],["2026-05-12",null],["2026-05-19",null],["2026-05-26",null],["2026-06-02",null],["2026-06-09",2.89],["2026-06-16",2.75],["2026-06-23",2.49],["2026-06-30",2.17],["2026-07-07",1.94],["2026-07-14",1.88],["2026-07-21",1.94],["2026-07-28",2.06],["2026-08-04",2.22],["2026-08-11",2.41],["2026-08-18",2.62],["2026-08-25",2.86],["2026-09-01",3.11],["2026-09-08",3.36],["2026-09-15",3.58]]},"file":"2026-09-15_angus-reid.json","publication":{"date":"2026-09-15","path":"by-date/2026-09-15.json","snapshots_that_day":["2026-09-15_angus-reid.json"],"new_polls":[{"date":"2026-09-15","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":749,"values":{"NDP":41,"CON":37,"GRN":13}}],"previous_date":"2026-09-14","changes":{"from_date":"2026-09-14","from_file":"2026-09-14_ipsos.json","average":{"NDP":-0.85,"CON":-0.33,"GRN":0.9,"ONEBC":0.01,"CENTRE":0.03,"OTH":0.23},"seat_median":{"NDP":-1.0,"CON":1.0,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"p_majority":{"NDP":-0.0278,"CON":0.0119,"GRN":0.0001,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"p_minority":0.0158,"leader_changes":[{"id":"271","name":"Columbia River-Revelstoke","from":"NDP","to":"CON"}]}}}