{"title":"British Columbia 2026 seat projection","label":"Projection, not a poll.","version":"bc-shadow-v1","generated":"2026-10-10T05:16:51+00:00","backfilled":true,"as_of":"2026-08-08","freeze_at":"2026-10-23 23:59:59 America/Vancouver (PDT, UTC-7)","data_window":{"from":"2024-10-20","to":"2026-08-08","rule":"Polls dated after the 2024 election, up to the newest poll; kernel weights as on the site."},"poll_set_hash":"203b3f51dcbdd6ce","polls_used":[{"date":"2025-01-26","firm":"Leger","sample":1001,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":42,"GRN":10},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-02-15","firm":"Pallas Data","sample":677,"values":{"NDP":48.8,"CON":40.7,"GRN":7.6},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-03-05","firm":"Research Co.","sample":802,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":42,"GRN":11},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-05-04","firm":"Liaison Strategies","sample":800,"values":{"NDP":45,"CON":47,"GRN":7},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-05-25","firm":"Leger","sample":1032,"values":{"NDP":45,"CON":39,"GRN":11},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-06-09","firm":"Research Co.","sample":803,"values":{"NDP":43,"CON":42,"GRN":8,"ONEBC":1,"CENTRE":2},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-06-24","firm":"Mainstreet Research","sample":943,"values":{"NDP":41,"CON":44,"GRN":7},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-09-05","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":811,"values":{"NDP":42,"CON":44,"GRN":10},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-10-03","firm":"Research Co.","sample":801,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":38,"GRN":12,"ONEBC":1,"CENTRE":3},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-10-06","firm":"Cardinal Research","sample":1088,"values":{"NDP":42.5,"CON":41.3,"GRN":10,"ONEBC":3.8},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-10-12","firm":"Leger","sample":1035,"values":{"NDP":48,"CON":38,"GRN":8},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-10-15","firm":"Abacus Data","sample":1000,"values":{"NDP":47,"CON":40,"GRN":8,"ONEBC":1,"CENTRE":3},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-10-25","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":1044,"values":{"NDP":40,"CON":41,"GRN":11,"ONEBC":5,"CENTRE":1},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-11-25","firm":"EKOS","sample":889,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":35,"GRN":9,"ONEBC":8,"CENTRE":2},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-11-25","firm":"Yorkville Strategies","sample":600,"values":{"NDP":40,"CON":42,"GRN":8,"ONEBC":5},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-12-01","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":463,"values":{"NDP":43,"CON":40,"GRN":11},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-12-13","firm":"Pallas Data","sample":923,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":39,"GRN":9,"ONEBC":7},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-12-18","firm":"Mainstreet Research","sample":1902,"values":{"NDP":41,"CON":41,"GRN":10,"ONEBC":7},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-01-26","firm":"Leger","sample":1003,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":38,"GRN":9,"ONEBC":6},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-02-09","firm":"Leger","sample":1007,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":39,"GRN":9,"ONEBC":5},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-02-14","firm":"Pallas Data","sample":988,"values":{"NDP":42,"CON":37,"GRN":13,"ONEBC":6},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-02-24","firm":"One Persuasion","sample":1005,"values":{"NDP":37,"CON":41,"GRN":11,"ONEBC":6},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-02-27","firm":"Pallas Data","sample":1256,"values":{"NDP":42,"CON":40,"GRN":11,"ONEBC":5},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-03-03","firm":"Innovative Research","sample":991,"values":{"NDP":39,"CON":47,"GRN":10},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-03-13","firm":"Mainstreet Research","sample":1054,"values":{"NDP":39,"CON":37,"GRN":12},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-03-17","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":499,"values":{"NDP":42,"CON":44,"GRN":9},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-04-06","firm":"Leger","sample":1003,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":40,"GRN":10,"ONEBC":3},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-04-13","firm":"Mainstreet Research","sample":1275,"values":{"NDP":38,"CON":32.8,"GRN":16.1,"ONEBC":10.9},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-04-28","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":804,"values":{"NDP":36,"CON":46,"GRN":13},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-06-02","firm":"Leger","sample":1002,"values":{"NDP":41,"CON":45,"GRN":8},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-06-05","firm":"Research Co.","sample":803,"values":{"NDP":42,"CON":42,"GRN":9,"ONEBC":2,"CENTRE":3},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-06-12","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":755,"values":{"NDP":36,"CON":47,"GRN":11},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-07-17","firm":"Fairview Strategy","sample":896,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":40,"GRN":12},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-08-03","firm":"Yorkville Strategies","sample":1016,"values":{"NDP":46,"CON":40,"GRN":12,"ONEBC":1,"CENTRE":0},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-08-08","firm":"604 Polling","sample":1124,"values":{"NDP":35,"CON":45,"GRN":12,"ONEBC":2,"CENTRE":2},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]}],"new_polls":[{"date":"2026-08-08","firm":"604 Polling","sample":1124,"values":{"NDP":35,"CON":45,"GRN":12,"ONEBC":2,"CENTRE":2}}],"revised_polls":[],"average":{"NDP":{"mean":41.03,"lo":35.93,"hi":46.13},"CON":{"mean":42.1,"lo":39.61,"hi":44.58},"GRN":{"mean":11.97,"lo":11.7,"hi":12.25},"ONEBC":{"mean":1.52,"lo":1.02,"hi":2.02},"CENTRE":{"mean":1.05,"lo":0.04,"hi":2.05}},"model_target":{"NDP":41.03,"CON":42.1,"GRN":11.97,"ONEBC":1.52,"CENTRE":1.05,"OTH":2.33},"parameters":{"sigma_nat":4.601,"sigma_reg":5.246,"sigma_rid":6.785,"df_nat":4,"df_reg":4,"df_rid":4,"alpha":0.5,"draws":10000,"seed":20261024,"absent_transfers":{"GRN":{"NDP":0.6,"CON":0.21,"CENTRE":0.13,"ONEBC":0.03,"OTH":0.03},"ONEBC":{"CON":0.85,"NDP":0.1,"OTH":0.05},"CENTRE":{"CON":0.5,"NDP":0.37,"GRN":0.13}},"bc_united_residual_transfer":{"CENTRE":0.3,"CON":0.44,"NDP":0.175,"GRN":0.05,"OTH":0.035},"new_party_rules":{"ONEBC":"proxy","CENTRE":"proxy"},"regions":["Metro Vancouver","Fraser Valley","Vancouver Island","Interior and North"],"majority":47,"independents_carried":{"306":[{"name":"Jordan Kealy","label_2024":"Conservative Party","kind":"party","share_2024":74.4,"carried":29.0,"sdlog":0.57}]},"independent_rule":{"party":{"median":0.39,"sdlog":0.57},"independent":{"median":1.05,"sdlog":0.25}},"regional_adjustment":{"applied":false,"rule":"shrink province-wide swing toward regional poll splits","groups":{}}},"province":{"seats":{"NDP":{"seats_median":43.0,"seats_mean":42.5446,"seats_lo90":23.0,"seats_hi90":62.0,"p_majority":0.3623,"p_most_seats":0.41,"vote_median":42.4018,"vote_lo90":35.5598,"vote_hi90":48.955},"CON":{"seats_median":47.0,"seats_mean":47.2727,"seats_lo90":28.0,"seats_hi90":67.0,"p_majority":0.5246,"p_most_seats":0.5741,"vote_median":43.9755,"vote_lo90":37.2432,"vote_hi90":50.836},"GRN":{"seats_median":3.0,"seats_mean":2.959,"seats_lo90":0.0,"seats_hi90":7.0,"p_majority":0.0001,"p_most_seats":0.0001,"vote_median":11.2472,"vote_lo90":7.2303,"vote_hi90":15.3116},"ONEBC":{"seats_median":0.0,"seats_mean":0.0002,"seats_lo90":0.0,"seats_hi90":0.0,"p_majority":0.0,"p_most_seats":0.0,"vote_median":0.6944,"vote_lo90":0.0992,"vote_hi90":1.4785},"CENTRE":{"seats_median":0.0,"seats_mean":0.0011,"seats_lo90":0.0,"seats_hi90":0.0,"p_majority":0.0,"p_most_seats":0.0,"vote_median":0.6646,"vote_lo90":0.1375,"vote_hi90":1.3625},"OTH":{"seats_median":0.0,"seats_mean":0.2224,"seats_lo90":0.0,"seats_hi90":1.0,"p_majority":0.0,"p_most_seats":0.0,"vote_median":0.9221,"vote_lo90":0.4026,"vote_hi90":1.5361}},"p_minority":0.113,"p_tied_most_seats":0.0158,"ridings_led":{"NDP":39,"CON":52,"GRN":2,"ONEBC":0,"CENTRE":0,"OTH":0},"ridings_led_point":{"NDP":38,"CON":52,"GRN":3,"ONEBC":0,"CENTRE":0,"OTH":0},"categories":{"Solid":14,"Likely":28,"Leans":35,"Toss-up":16},"toss_ups":16,"seat_histogram":{"NDP":{"0":10,"1":4,"2":6,"3":7,"4":6,"5":4,"6":3,"7":12,"8":11,"9":9,"10":16,"11":15,"12":18,"13":18,"14":19,"15":32,"16":33,"17":36,"18":34,"19":27,"20":52,"21":54,"22":67,"23":62,"24":85,"25":110,"26":110,"27":121,"28":141,"29":141,"30":165,"31":224,"32":211,"33":225,"34":244,"35":267,"36":341,"37":275,"38":312,"39":339,"40":341,"41":366,"42":383,"43":387,"44":363,"45":336,"46":335,"47":333,"48":301,"49":292,"50":318,"51":283,"52":242,"53":215,"54":206,"55":168,"56":157,"57":131,"58":127,"59":122,"60":88,"61":99,"62":69,"63":66,"64":59,"65":49,"66":33,"67":47,"68":29,"69":16,"70":21,"71":22,"72":19,"73":15,"74":13,"75":13,"76":6,"77":6,"78":6,"79":9,"80":7,"81":8,"82":2,"83":6,"84":3,"85":4,"86":3,"87":1,"88":3,"89":3,"91":3},"CON":{"0":1,"1":1,"2":4,"3":4,"4":4,"5":5,"6":3,"7":4,"8":7,"9":4,"10":7,"11":7,"12":5,"13":12,"14":9,"15":8,"16":9,"17":18,"18":16,"19":22,"20":20,"21":25,"22":30,"23":42,"24":34,"25":48,"26":55,"27":75,"28":78,"29":97,"30":99,"31":106,"32":123,"33":143,"34":158,"35":191,"36":187,"37":211,"38":256,"39":274,"40":296,"41":310,"42":337,"43":342,"44":352,"45":345,"46":370,"47":352,"48":375,"49":379,"50":350,"51":333,"52":306,"53":303,"54":282,"55":258,"56":249,"57":250,"58":214,"59":214,"60":161,"61":146,"62":125,"63":105,"64":122,"65":94,"66":83,"67":68,"68":58,"69":58,"70":47,"71":35,"72":35,"73":40,"74":33,"75":24,"76":27,"77":18,"78":19,"79":8,"80":11,"81":8,"82":11,"83":6,"84":7,"85":7,"86":7,"87":2,"88":3,"89":6,"90":3,"91":2,"92":1,"93":1},"GRN":{"0":610,"1":1452,"2":2689,"3":2321,"4":1278,"5":690,"6":402,"7":209,"8":155,"9":84,"10":40,"11":22,"12":16,"13":11,"14":7,"15":4,"16":3,"17":2,"18":1,"21":1,"22":1,"35":1,"51":1},"ONEBC":{"0":9998,"1":2},"CENTRE":{"0":9990,"1":9,"2":1},"OTH":{"0":7778,"1":2220,"2":2}},"projected_vote":{"NDP":42.65,"CON":43.96,"GRN":11.25,"ONEBC":0.66,"CENTRE":0.61,"OTH":0.88}},"ridings":[{"id":"258","name":"Abbotsford-Mission","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Reann Gasper","share":55.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":55.4,"NDP":44.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":43.97,"CON":52.9,"ONEBC":1.85,"CENTRE":1.27},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Vacant","party_at_dissolution":null,"not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":"vacant"},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7356,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.2643,"CON":0.7356,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":41.96,"CON":52.62,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":1.94,"CENTRE":1.26,"OTH":2.22},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":26.98,"median":41.9,"hi90":56.54},"CON":{"lo90":36.51,"median":52.15,"hi90":67.04},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.57,"hi90":6.68},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.02,"hi90":5.1},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.77,"hi90":7.44}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"vacant","note":"Vacant: Reann Gasper (Conservative) resigned 2026-08-22; the 2026-09-26 by-election was cancelled by dissolution. Kerry-Lynne Findlay is not a candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: no incumbent."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"259","name":"Abbotsford South","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Bruce Banman","share":61.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":61.6,"NDP":35.2,"IND":3.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":35.52,"CON":60.87,"ONEBC":2.14,"CENTRE":1.47},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Bruce Banman","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9358,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0642,"CON":0.9358},"point":{"NDP":35.13,"CON":62.59,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":2.29,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":21.37,"median":35.31,"hi90":50.2},"CON":{"lo90":47.19,"median":62.31,"hi90":76.16},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.87,"hi90":7.27}},"baseline_moves":["Amandeep Singh (independent 2024, 3.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Bruce Banman: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"260","name":"Abbotsford West","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Korky Neufeld","share":58.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":58.4,"NDP":36.9,"IND":4.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":37.2,"CON":57.82,"ONEBC":2.03,"CENTRE":2.96},"running":["NDP","CON","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Korky Neufeld","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9197,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0803,"CON":0.9197},"point":{"NDP":36.42,"CON":60.71,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":2.87,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":21.72,"median":36.24,"hi90":51.21},"CON":{"lo90":45.6,"median":60.62,"hi90":75.37},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.02,"median":2.59,"hi90":8.0}},"baseline_moves":["James Davison (independent 2024, 4.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"261","name":"Boundary-Similkameen","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Donegal Wilson","share":48.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":48.4,"NDP":42.6,"GRN":5.9,"IND":3.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":42.85,"CON":48.42,"GRN":5.87,"ONEBC":1.69,"CENTRE":1.17},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Donegal Wilson","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6004,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3995,"CON":0.6004,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":47.04,"CON":50.89,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":2.07,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.42,"median":46.87,"hi90":60.97},"CON":{"lo90":36.63,"median":50.89,"hi90":65.12},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.17,"median":1.62,"hi90":6.64}},"baseline_moves":["Sean Taylor (independent 2024, 3.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Donegal Wilson: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"262","name":"Bulkley Valley-Stikine","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Sharon L. Hartwell","share":52.3},"shares_2024":{"CON":52.3,"NDP":38.9,"GRN":6.3,"OTH":2.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":38.3,"CON":49.95,"GRN":6.3,"ONEBC":1.75,"CENTRE":1.2,"OTH":2.5},"running":["NDP","CON","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Sharon Hartwell","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7622,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.2377,"CON":0.7622,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":42.13,"CON":52.81,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":5.06},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":28.45,"median":41.93,"hi90":55.62},"CON":{"lo90":39.12,"median":53.01,"hi90":66.8},"OTH":{"lo90":0.55,"median":4.69,"hi90":10.95}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"263","name":"Burnaby Centre","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Anne Kang","share":57.3},"shares_2024":{"NDP":57.3,"CON":42.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":56.59,"CON":41.0,"ONEBC":1.43,"CENTRE":0.98},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Anne Kang","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7754,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7754,"CON":0.2246},"point":{"NDP":54.64,"CON":42.67,"GRN":1.92,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.77,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":40.06,"median":54.09,"hi90":67.7},"CON":{"lo90":28.83,"median":42.67,"hi90":56.33},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.52,"hi90":8.08},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.44,"hi90":3.78}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"264","name":"Burnaby East","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Reah Arora","share":51.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.8,"CON":40.5,"GRN":7.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":51.22,"CON":38.88,"GRN":7.61,"ONEBC":1.35,"CENTRE":0.93},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Rohini Arora","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7431,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7431,"CON":0.2563,"GRN":0.0006},"point":{"NDP":48.33,"CON":38.68,"GRN":11.61,"ONEBC":1.38,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":34.28,"median":48.15,"hi90":61.89},"CON":{"lo90":25.49,"median":38.66,"hi90":52.54},"GRN":{"lo90":2.9,"median":11.37,"hi90":21.07},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.03,"hi90":5.03}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"265","name":"Burnaby-New Westminster","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Raj Chouhan","share":60.0},"shares_2024":{"NDP":60.0,"CON":34.7,"IND":5.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":60.7,"CON":36.75,"GRN":0.4,"ONEBC":1.28,"CENTRE":0.88},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Raj Chouhan","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8971,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8971,"CON":0.1029},"point":{"NDP":58.98,"CON":38.5,"GRN":2.52,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":44.49,"median":58.57,"hi90":71.51},"CON":{"lo90":25.28,"median":38.53,"hi90":52.45},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.18,"hi90":8.76}},"baseline_moves":["Daniel Kofi Ampong (independent 2024, 5.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"266","name":"Burnaby North","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Janet Routledge","share":53.3},"shares_2024":{"NDP":53.3,"CON":43.0,"IND":3.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":53.56,"CON":43.59,"GRN":0.28,"ONEBC":1.52,"CENTRE":1.05},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Janet Routledge","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.6745,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.6745,"CON":0.3254,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":51.69,"CON":44.35,"GRN":2.38,"ONEBC":1.58,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":36.76,"median":51.17,"hi90":64.97},"CON":{"lo90":30.18,"median":44.36,"hi90":58.2},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.97,"hi90":8.58},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.2,"hi90":5.56}},"baseline_moves":["Martin Kendell (independent 2024, 3.7%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"267","name":"Burnaby South-Metrotown","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Paul Choi","share":49.3},"shares_2024":{"NDP":49.3,"CON":41.6,"GRN":6.3,"IND":1.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":49.44,"CON":41.65,"GRN":6.46,"ONEBC":1.45,"CENTRE":1.0},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Paul Choi","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.6384,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.6384,"CON":0.3612,"GRN":0.0004},"point":{"NDP":46.74,"CON":41.6,"GRN":10.18,"ONEBC":1.49,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.58,"median":46.62,"hi90":60.34},"CON":{"lo90":27.9,"median":41.55,"hi90":55.64},"GRN":{"lo90":1.95,"median":9.86,"hi90":19.06},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.12,"hi90":5.21}},"baseline_moves":["Meiling Chia (independent 2024, 1.9%) not running: transferred","MichaelAngelo Abc RobinHood (independent 2024, 0.9%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"268","name":"Cariboo-Chilcotin","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Lorne Doerkson","share":69.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":69.6,"NDP":30.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":29.89,"CON":66.18,"ONEBC":2.33,"CENTRE":1.6},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Lorne Doerkson","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9869,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.013,"CON":0.9869,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":28.36,"CON":69.56,"GRN":2.08,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":14.93,"median":28.13,"hi90":41.92},"CON":{"lo90":54.89,"median":69.19,"hi90":82.38},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.7,"hi90":9.21}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"leader_seat","note":"Conservative interim leader Lorne Doerkson.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low (safe seats)."}]},{"id":"269","name":"Chilliwack-Cultus Lake","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"A'aliya Warbus","share":54.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":54.6,"NDP":45.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.77,"CON":52.15,"ONEBC":1.82,"CENTRE":1.26},"running":["NDP","CON"],"incumbent":{"name":"Áʼa꞉líya Warbus","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7322,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.2678,"CON":0.7322},"point":{"NDP":44.6,"CON":55.4,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":29.44,"median":44.51,"hi90":59.9},"CON":{"lo90":40.1,"median":55.49,"hi90":70.56}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Áʼa꞉líya Warbus: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"270","name":"Chilliwack North","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Heather Maahs","share":54.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":54.6,"NDP":37.7,"GRN":5.5,"IND":2.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":37.1,"CON":52.09,"GRN":5.48,"ONEBC":1.82,"CENTRE":3.51},"running":["NDP","CON","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Heather Maahs","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8198,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1802,"CON":0.8198},"point":{"NDP":40.25,"CON":55.46,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":4.3,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":25.47,"median":40.19,"hi90":55.1},"CON":{"lo90":40.34,"median":55.52,"hi90":70.45},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.82,"median":3.96,"hi90":9.62}},"baseline_moves":["Dan Grice (independent 2024) runs again as CENTRE"],"notes":[{"type":"returning_candidate","note":"Dan Grice took 2.3% as an independent in 2024 and is the 2026 CentreBC candidate; v1 moves his 2024 vote to CentreBC.","v1":"His 2024 votes are assigned to CentreBC.","why_it_may_matter":"Low."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"271","name":"Columbia River-Revelstoke","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Scott McInnis","share":47.9},"shares_2024":{"CON":47.9,"NDP":44.3,"GRN":7.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":43.66,"CON":45.85,"GRN":7.79,"ONEBC":1.6,"CENTRE":1.1},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Scott McInnis","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6666,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3315,"CON":0.6666,"GRN":0.0019},"point":{"NDP":41.07,"CON":47.11,"GRN":11.83,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":26.05,"median":40.69,"hi90":55.51},"CON":{"lo90":32.78,"median":47.28,"hi90":62.25},"GRN":{"lo90":2.62,"median":11.61,"hi90":21.81}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Scott McInnis: left or was removed from the Conservative caucus in September 2026 and returned on 2026-09-21; Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low."}]},{"id":"272","name":"Coquitlam-Burke Mountain","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Jodie Wickens","share":50.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":50.8,"CON":49.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":50.17,"CON":47.05,"ONEBC":1.64,"CENTRE":1.13},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jodie Wickens","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.532,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.468,"CON":0.532},"point":{"NDP":48.18,"CON":49.01,"GRN":1.91,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.9,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":33.57,"median":47.68,"hi90":61.33},"CON":{"lo90":34.81,"median":48.92,"hi90":62.92},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.49,"hi90":7.83},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.58,"hi90":4.14}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"273","name":"Coquitlam-Maillardville","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Jennifer Blatherwick","share":51.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.8,"CON":39.6,"GRN":6.3,"IND":2.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":51.77,"CON":39.43,"GRN":6.47,"ONEBC":1.37,"CENTRE":0.95},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jennifer Blatherwick","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7093,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7093,"CON":0.29,"GRN":0.0007},"point":{"NDP":49.17,"CON":40.62,"GRN":10.2,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":34.92,"median":48.88,"hi90":62.87},"CON":{"lo90":27.32,"median":40.76,"hi90":54.94},"GRN":{"lo90":2.19,"median":9.89,"hi90":19.3}},"baseline_moves":["Ken Holowanky (independent 2024, 2.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"274","name":"Courtenay-Comox","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Brennan Day","share":38.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":38.8,"NDP":38.6,"GRN":20.7,"IND":1.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":38.4,"CON":38.01,"GRN":20.77,"ONEBC":1.33,"CENTRE":1.49},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Brennan Day","party_at_dissolution":"IND","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5247,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3561,"CON":0.5247,"GRN":0.1192},"point":{"NDP":34.39,"CON":37.27,"GRN":27.17,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":1.17,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":19.93,"median":34.1,"hi90":48.64},"CON":{"lo90":22.99,"median":37.34,"hi90":52.45},"GRN":{"lo90":13.49,"median":26.78,"hi90":40.82},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.81,"hi90":4.86}},"baseline_moves":["John Hedican (independent 2024, 1.5%) not running: transferred","Devin Howell (independent 2024, 0.4%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Brennan Day left the Conservative caucus on 2026-08-26 and returned after the writ; Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low."}]},{"id":"275","name":"Cowichan Valley","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Debra Toporowski","share":40.5},"shares_2024":{"NDP":40.5,"CON":37.6,"GRN":19.8,"IND":1.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":40.51,"CON":37.28,"GRN":19.91,"ONEBC":1.3,"CENTRE":0.9,"OTH":0.1},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Debra Toporowski","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.4674,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4367,"CON":0.4674,"GRN":0.0958,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":35.93,"CON":36.12,"GRN":25.72,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.22},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":21.41,"median":35.64,"hi90":50.07},"CON":{"lo90":22.54,"median":36.32,"hi90":51.13},"GRN":{"lo90":12.56,"median":25.13,"hi90":38.9},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.84,"hi90":7.26}},"baseline_moves":["Eden Haythornthwaite (independent 2024, 1.2%) not running: transferred","Jon Coleman (independent 2024, 0.9%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"276","name":"Delta North","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Ravi Kahlon","share":52.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":52.7,"CON":40.2,"GRN":6.2,"OTH":0.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":52.1,"CON":38.6,"GRN":6.18,"ONEBC":1.34,"CENTRE":0.93,"OTH":0.85},"running":["NDP","CON","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Ravi Kahlon","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8192,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8192,"CON":0.1808},"point":{"NDP":55.97,"CON":41.96,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":2.07,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":42.33,"median":55.73,"hi90":68.95},"CON":{"lo90":28.64,"median":41.95,"hi90":55.57},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.51,"median":1.98,"hi90":5.19}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Ravi Kahlon (NDP) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate: loss of incumbent (The Writ docks a party 3-4 points when its incumbent leaves)."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"277","name":"Delta South","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Ian Paton","share":55.1},"shares_2024":{"CON":55.1,"NDP":44.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.28,"CON":52.61,"ONEBC":1.84,"CENTRE":1.27},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Ian Paton","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7772,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.2228,"CON":0.7772},"point":{"NDP":42.43,"CON":53.6,"GRN":2.04,"ONEBC":1.92,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":28.43,"median":42.06,"hi90":55.92},"CON":{"lo90":39.33,"median":53.49,"hi90":66.88},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.64,"hi90":8.0},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.56,"hi90":5.93}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Ian Paton: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."},{"type":"notable_candidate","note":"Jim McMurtry (OneBC's first nominee; independent in Surrey-Serpentine River in 2024, PPC federally in 2025) runs here against incumbent Ian Paton (Conservative).","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate."}]},{"id":"278","name":"Esquimalt-Colwood","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Darlene Rotchford","share":51.5},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.5,"CON":29.2,"GRN":19.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":50.94,"CON":28.15,"GRN":19.26,"ONEBC":0.98,"CENTRE":0.67},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Darlene Rotchford","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8437,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8437,"CON":0.0945,"GRN":0.0618},"point":{"NDP":46.47,"CON":27.58,"GRN":25.49,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.46,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":31.11,"median":46.17,"hi90":61.32},"CON":{"lo90":14.34,"median":27.65,"hi90":42.28},"GRN":{"lo90":12.05,"median":25.01,"hi90":39.16},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.12,"hi90":3.49}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"279","name":"Fraser-Nicola","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Tony Luck","share":54.3},"shares_2024":{"CON":54.3,"NDP":36.4,"GRN":9.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":35.86,"CON":51.85,"GRN":9.23,"ONEBC":1.82,"CENTRE":1.25},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Tony Luck","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8992,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.099,"CON":0.8992,"GRN":0.0018},"point":{"NDP":33.33,"CON":53.08,"GRN":13.59,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":18.96,"median":33.0,"hi90":47.25},"CON":{"lo90":38.69,"median":53.28,"hi90":68.03},"GRN":{"lo90":3.9,"median":13.36,"hi90":24.16}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"280","name":"Juan de Fuca-Malahat","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Dana Lajeunesse","share":38.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":38.8,"CON":38.2,"GRN":23.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":38.3,"CON":36.6,"GRN":22.94,"ONEBC":1.28,"CENTRE":0.88},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Dana Lajeunesse","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.4285,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3772,"CON":0.4285,"GRN":0.1943},"point":{"NDP":33.49,"CON":34.14,"GRN":29.12,"ONEBC":1.22,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.04},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":19.15,"median":33.21,"hi90":47.55},"CON":{"lo90":20.21,"median":34.15,"hi90":48.67},"GRN":{"lo90":15.1,"median":28.56,"hi90":42.81},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.81,"hi90":5.01},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.66,"hi90":7.05}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"281","name":"Kamloops Centre","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Peter Milobar","share":48.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":48.8,"NDP":40.9,"GRN":10.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":40.35,"CON":46.68,"GRN":10.21,"ONEBC":1.63,"CENTRE":1.12},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Peter Milobar","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7213,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.2747,"CON":0.7213,"GRN":0.004},"point":{"NDP":36.62,"CON":45.18,"GRN":14.47,"ONEBC":1.62,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.11},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":22.0,"median":36.1,"hi90":50.24},"CON":{"lo90":30.58,"median":45.15,"hi90":59.82},"GRN":{"lo90":4.48,"median":14.16,"hi90":25.22},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.19,"hi90":5.89},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.64,"hi90":7.15}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Peter Milobar: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."}]},{"id":"282","name":"Kamloops-North Thompson","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Ward Stamer","share":59.7},"shares_2024":{"CON":59.7,"NDP":32.9,"GRN":7.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":32.38,"CON":56.92,"GRN":7.33,"ONEBC":2.0,"CENTRE":1.37},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Ward Stamer","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9056,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0944,"CON":0.9056},"point":{"NDP":37.93,"CON":59.64,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":2.43,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":24.35,"median":37.55,"hi90":51.94},"CON":{"lo90":45.36,"median":59.75,"hi90":73.37},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.25,"median":2.05,"hi90":6.99}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"283","name":"Kelowna Centre","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Kristina Loewen","share":42.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":42.8,"NDP":42.7,"IND":10.1,"GRN":4.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.95,"CON":47.92,"GRN":4.3,"ONEBC":1.68,"CENTRE":1.15},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Kristina Loewen","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.563,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.437,"CON":0.563},"point":{"NDP":47.9,"CON":50.12,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":1.99,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":33.09,"median":47.65,"hi90":61.72},"CON":{"lo90":35.93,"median":50.1,"hi90":64.48},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.12,"median":1.57,"hi90":6.42}},"baseline_moves":["Michael Humer (independent 2024, 10.1%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Michael Humer took 10.1% as an independent in 2024; not running. His vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"284","name":"Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Tara Armstrong","share":53.9},"shares_2024":{"CON":53.9,"NDP":35.2,"IND":6.5,"GRN":4.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":36.39,"CON":55.52,"GRN":4.81,"ONEBC":1.95,"CENTRE":1.34},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Tara Armstrong","party_at_dissolution":"IND","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9116,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0882,"CON":0.9116,"GRN":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":34.09,"CON":55.78,"GRN":8.14,"ONEBC":2.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":19.86,"median":33.76,"hi90":48.01},"CON":{"lo90":40.68,"median":55.67,"hi90":70.33},"GRN":{"lo90":0.57,"median":7.88,"hi90":17.34},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.6,"hi90":6.74}},"baseline_moves":["Kevin Kraft (independent 2024, 6.5%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Tara Armstrong (elected Conservative 2024; OneBC co-founder, then independent) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate."}]},{"id":"285","name":"Kelowna-Mission","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Gavin Dew","share":51.5},"shares_2024":{"CON":51.5,"NDP":32.6,"IND":11.0,"GRN":4.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":34.95,"CON":56.0,"GRN":5.74,"ONEBC":1.96,"CENTRE":1.35},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Gavin Dew","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9288,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0708,"CON":0.9288,"GRN":0.0004},"point":{"NDP":32.58,"CON":56.12,"GRN":9.29,"ONEBC":2.01,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":18.55,"median":32.11,"hi90":46.31},"CON":{"lo90":41.41,"median":56.23,"hi90":70.63},"GRN":{"lo90":1.06,"median":9.01,"hi90":18.88},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.63,"hi90":6.61}},"baseline_moves":["Ashley Ramsay (independent 2024, 11.0%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Ashley Ramsay took 11.0% as an independent in 2024; not running. Her vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"286","name":"Kootenay Central","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Brittny Anderson","share":39.6},"shares_2024":{"NDP":39.6,"CON":31.7,"GRN":18.7,"IND":10.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":41.72,"CON":36.68,"GRN":19.43,"ONEBC":1.28,"CENTRE":0.88},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Brittny Anderson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5173,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5173,"CON":0.4034,"GRN":0.0793},"point":{"NDP":37.76,"CON":35.26,"GRN":25.71,"ONEBC":1.26,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":22.99,"median":37.49,"hi90":52.08},"CON":{"lo90":20.94,"median":35.26,"hi90":50.49},"GRN":{"lo90":12.75,"median":25.44,"hi90":38.1},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.85,"hi90":5.32}},"baseline_moves":["Corinne Mori (independent 2024, 10.0%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Corinne Mori took 10.0% as an independent in 2024; not running. Her vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"287","name":"Kootenay-Monashee","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Steve Morissette","share":52.0},"shares_2024":{"NDP":52.0,"CON":38.9,"GRN":9.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":51.43,"CON":37.3,"GRN":9.08,"ONEBC":1.3,"CENTRE":0.9},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Steve Morissette","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.762,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.762,"CON":0.2353,"GRN":0.0027},"point":{"NDP":48.34,"CON":36.93,"GRN":13.41,"ONEBC":1.32,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.81,"median":47.98,"hi90":62.46},"CON":{"lo90":22.69,"median":36.98,"hi90":51.82},"GRN":{"lo90":3.58,"median":13.16,"hi90":23.91},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.9,"hi90":5.64}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"288","name":"Kootenay-Rockies","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Pete Davis","share":42.7},"shares_2024":{"CON":42.7,"IND":30.4,"NDP":21.7,"GRN":5.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":26.81,"CON":53.84,"GRN":6.72,"ONEBC":1.89,"CENTRE":10.74},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Pete Davis","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9644,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0327,"CON":0.9644,"GRN":0.0019,"CENTRE":0.001},"point":{"NDP":24.31,"CON":53.61,"GRN":10.44,"ONEBC":1.94,"CENTRE":9.7,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":11.08,"median":24.02,"hi90":37.49},"CON":{"lo90":38.41,"median":53.79,"hi90":68.76},"GRN":{"lo90":1.64,"median":10.15,"hi90":20.59},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.57,"hi90":6.56},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.94,"median":9.23,"hi90":19.0}},"baseline_moves":["Tom Shypitka (independent 2024, 30.4%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Tom Shypitka (ex-BC United MLA) took 30.4% as an independent in 2024; not running. His vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"289","name":"Ladysmith-Oceanside","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Stephanie Higginson","share":41.5},"shares_2024":{"NDP":41.5,"CON":35.5,"IND":16.3,"GRN":6.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":45.17,"CON":44.29,"GRN":7.92,"ONEBC":1.55,"CENTRE":1.07},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Stephanie Higginson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5904,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4068,"CON":0.5904,"GRN":0.0028},"point":{"NDP":42.53,"CON":45.48,"GRN":11.99,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":27.04,"median":42.3,"hi90":57.08},"CON":{"lo90":30.83,"median":45.74,"hi90":60.93},"GRN":{"lo90":2.08,"median":11.55,"hi90":23.14}},"baseline_moves":["Adam Walker (independent 2024, 16.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Adam Walker took 16.3% as an independent in 2024; not running. His vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"290","name":"Langford-Highlands","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Ravi Parmar","share":51.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.9,"CON":37.4,"GRN":10.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":51.27,"CON":35.92,"GRN":10.7,"ONEBC":1.25,"CENTRE":0.86},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Ravi Parmar","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7652,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7652,"CON":0.2305,"GRN":0.0042,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":46.85,"CON":35.38,"GRN":14.98,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.62,"OTH":2.17},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":31.39,"median":46.38,"hi90":60.94},"CON":{"lo90":21.59,"median":35.3,"hi90":50.17},"GRN":{"lo90":4.05,"median":14.48,"hi90":26.38},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.27,"hi90":3.72},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.78,"hi90":7.27}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"291","name":"Langley-Abbotsford","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Harman Bhangu","share":55.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":55.6,"NDP":33.7,"GRN":5.6,"IND":4.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":34.26,"CON":55.62,"GRN":5.85,"ONEBC":1.95,"CENTRE":1.34,"OTH":0.99},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Harman Bhangu","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9185,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0809,"CON":0.9185,"GRN":0.0006},"point":{"NDP":31.2,"CON":54.51,"GRN":9.22,"ONEBC":1.95,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.12},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":17.08,"median":30.97,"hi90":45.32},"CON":{"lo90":38.91,"median":54.23,"hi90":68.95},"GRN":{"lo90":1.24,"median":8.91,"hi90":18.25},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.55,"hi90":6.68},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.7,"hi90":8.65}},"baseline_moves":["Karen Long (independent 2024, 4.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"292","name":"Langley-Walnut Grove","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Misty Van Popta","share":49.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":49.6,"NDP":44.8,"GRN":5.1,"IND":0.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.25,"CON":47.63,"GRN":5.14,"ONEBC":1.67,"CENTRE":1.32},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Misty Van Popta","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6724,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3272,"CON":0.6724,"GRN":0.0004},"point":{"NDP":41.63,"CON":48.88,"GRN":8.42,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":1.06,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":25.91,"median":41.44,"hi90":56.88},"CON":{"lo90":33.08,"median":48.78,"hi90":63.96},"GRN":{"lo90":0.41,"median":8.04,"hi90":17.57},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.64,"hi90":5.0}},"baseline_moves":["Carlos Suarez Rubio (independent 2024, 0.5%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"293","name":"Langley-Willowbrook","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Jody Toor","share":48.2},"shares_2024":{"CON":48.2,"NDP":44.4,"GRN":7.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":43.82,"CON":46.14,"GRN":7.31,"ONEBC":1.61,"CENTRE":1.11},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jody Toor","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6217,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3769,"CON":0.6217,"GRN":0.0014},"point":{"NDP":41.11,"CON":46.01,"GRN":11.24,"ONEBC":1.65,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":25.64,"median":40.78,"hi90":55.89},"CON":{"lo90":30.44,"median":45.91,"hi90":61.19},"GRN":{"lo90":2.38,"median":10.94,"hi90":21.25},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.29,"hi90":6.21}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"294","name":"Maple Ridge East","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Lawrence Mok","share":47.0},"shares_2024":{"CON":47.0,"NDP":46.6,"GRN":6.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":46.02,"CON":45.01,"GRN":6.32,"ONEBC":1.57,"CENTRE":1.08},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Lawrence Mok","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5753,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4242,"CON":0.5753,"GRN":0.0005},"point":{"NDP":42.62,"CON":45.37,"GRN":9.8,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.21},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":26.92,"median":42.32,"hi90":57.14},"CON":{"lo90":30.19,"median":45.35,"hi90":60.56},"GRN":{"lo90":1.55,"median":9.47,"hi90":19.35},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.73,"hi90":7.33}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"295","name":"Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Lisa Beare","share":54.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":54.9,"CON":45.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":54.2,"CON":43.25,"ONEBC":1.51,"CENTRE":1.04},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Lisa Beare","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7036,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7036,"CON":0.2964},"point":{"NDP":53.25,"CON":44.04,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":1.63,"CENTRE":1.08,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":38.15,"median":53.12,"hi90":67.49},"CON":{"lo90":28.8,"median":43.55,"hi90":58.41},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.25,"hi90":6.21},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.9,"hi90":4.88}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"296","name":"Mid Island-Pacific Rim","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Josie Osborne","share":48.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":48.7,"CON":39.5,"GRN":11.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":48.15,"CON":37.85,"GRN":11.77,"ONEBC":1.32,"CENTRE":0.91},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Josie Osborne","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.6548,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.6548,"CON":0.3394,"GRN":0.0058},"point":{"NDP":44.93,"CON":38.38,"GRN":16.68,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":29.77,"median":44.74,"hi90":59.71},"CON":{"lo90":23.89,"median":38.61,"hi90":53.42},"GRN":{"lo90":5.14,"median":16.27,"hi90":28.76}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"297","name":"Nanaimo-Gabriola Island","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Sheila Malcolmson","share":52.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":52.7,"CON":34.7,"GRN":12.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":52.16,"CON":33.32,"GRN":12.56,"ONEBC":1.16,"CENTRE":0.8},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Sheila Malcolmson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8227,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8227,"CON":0.1675,"GRN":0.0098},"point":{"NDP":48.71,"CON":33.65,"GRN":17.64,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":33.42,"median":48.42,"hi90":63.28},"CON":{"lo90":19.96,"median":33.9,"hi90":48.48},"GRN":{"lo90":5.89,"median":17.21,"hi90":29.79}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"298","name":"Nanaimo-Lantzville","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"George Anderson","share":51.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.7,"CON":39.5,"GRN":8.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":51.13,"CON":37.92,"GRN":8.72,"ONEBC":1.32,"CENTRE":0.91},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"George Anderson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7245,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7245,"CON":0.2725,"GRN":0.003},"point":{"NDP":47.21,"CON":37.91,"GRN":12.69,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.19},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.17,"median":46.92,"hi90":61.47},"CON":{"lo90":23.69,"median":38.03,"hi90":52.43},"GRN":{"lo90":2.49,"median":12.23,"hi90":23.72},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.78,"hi90":7.1}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"299","name":"Nechako Lakes","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"John Rustad","share":67.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":67.4,"NDP":27.2,"GRN":5.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":26.75,"CON":64.13,"GRN":5.32,"ONEBC":2.26,"CENTRE":1.55},"running":["NDP","CON","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"John Rustad","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9821,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0179,"CON":0.9821},"point":{"NDP":30.39,"CON":67.07,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.54},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":17.52,"median":30.15,"hi90":43.73},"CON":{"lo90":53.51,"median":67.15,"hi90":79.97},"OTH":{"lo90":0.25,"median":2.07,"hi90":7.58}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"John Rustad (former Conservative leader, MLA since 2005) is not running. Elections BC's web table lists an unaffiliated candidate (Clint Lambert) whom its CSV omits.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: loss of a long-time incumbent in a safe seat."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"300","name":"New Westminster-Coquitlam","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Jennifer Whiteside","share":59.1},"shares_2024":{"NDP":59.1,"CON":29.8,"GRN":11.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":58.54,"CON":28.77,"GRN":11.01,"ONEBC":1.0,"CENTRE":0.69},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jennifer Whiteside","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9496,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9496,"CON":0.0475,"GRN":0.0029},"point":{"NDP":53.96,"CON":28.45,"GRN":15.43,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.16},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":39.6,"median":53.74,"hi90":66.99},"CON":{"lo90":16.47,"median":28.55,"hi90":41.72},"GRN":{"lo90":5.45,"median":15.1,"hi90":25.8},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.84,"hi90":6.72}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"301","name":"North Coast-Haida Gwaii","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Tamara Davidson","share":64.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":64.9,"CON":35.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":64.24,"CON":33.78,"ONEBC":1.17,"CENTRE":0.81},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Tamara Davidson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9389,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9389,"CON":0.0611},"point":{"NDP":62.61,"CON":35.39,"GRN":2.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":47.24,"median":61.8,"hi90":75.7},"CON":{"lo90":21.45,"median":35.44,"hi90":49.97},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.64,"hi90":9.21}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"302","name":"North Island","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Anna Kindy","share":47.1},"shares_2024":{"CON":47.1,"NDP":44.9,"GRN":8.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.33,"CON":45.04,"GRN":7.97,"ONEBC":1.57,"CENTRE":1.08},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Anna Kindy","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6234,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3737,"CON":0.6234,"GRN":0.0028,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":40.81,"CON":45.2,"GRN":11.8,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.2},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":25.82,"median":40.51,"hi90":54.95},"CON":{"lo90":30.71,"median":45.3,"hi90":60.01},"GRN":{"lo90":1.89,"median":11.38,"hi90":22.5},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.77,"hi90":7.01}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"303","name":"North Vancouver-Lonsdale","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Bowinn Ma","share":64.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":64.9,"CON":35.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":64.19,"CON":33.82,"ONEBC":1.17,"CENTRE":0.81},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Bowinn Ma","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9472,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9472,"CON":0.0527,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":62.57,"CON":35.44,"GRN":2.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":48.21,"median":62.07,"hi90":75.43},"CON":{"lo90":22.28,"median":35.49,"hi90":49.04},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.62,"hi90":7.99}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"304","name":"North Vancouver-Seymour","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Susie Chant","share":52.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":52.8,"CON":35.8,"IND":5.8,"GRN":5.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":53.19,"CON":36.93,"GRN":5.89,"ONEBC":1.29,"CENTRE":2.7},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Susie Chant","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8155,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8155,"CON":0.1838,"GRN":0.0006,"CENTRE":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":50.34,"CON":36.61,"GRN":9.4,"ONEBC":1.32,"CENTRE":2.33,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":36.11,"median":49.94,"hi90":63.87},"CON":{"lo90":23.2,"median":36.56,"hi90":50.19},"GRN":{"lo90":1.6,"median":9.18,"hi90":18.18},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.98,"hi90":4.96},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.03,"hi90":6.87}},"baseline_moves":["Mitchell Baker (independent 2024, 5.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_moved","note":"Lynne Block (Conservative MLA for West Vancouver-Capilano) is the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: a sitting MLA as challenger."}]},{"id":"305","name":"Oak Bay-Gordon Head","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Diana Gibson","share":49.1},"shares_2024":{"NDP":49.1,"CON":28.9,"GRN":22.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":48.59,"CON":27.82,"GRN":21.96,"ONEBC":0.97,"CENTRE":0.67},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Diana Gibson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7781,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7781,"CON":0.1036,"GRN":0.1183},"point":{"NDP":43.92,"CON":27.05,"GRN":28.59,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.45,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":28.61,"median":43.62,"hi90":58.75},"CON":{"lo90":14.02,"median":27.07,"hi90":41.5},"GRN":{"lo90":14.58,"median":28.08,"hi90":42.38},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.11,"hi90":3.42}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"notable_candidate","note":"Andrew Weaver (Green leader 2015-2020 and MLA for Oak Bay-Gordon Head 2013-2020) runs for CentreBC.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"High: a former MLA with a personal following could take far more than CentreBC's provincial share."}]},{"id":"306","name":"Peace River North","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Jordan Kealy","share":74.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":74.4,"IND":20.1,"NDP":5.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":5.38,"CON":60.53,"ONEBC":2.14,"CENTRE":1.47,"OTH":30.48},"running":["CON","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jordan Kealy","party_at_dissolution":"IND","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7783,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"CON":0.7783,"OTH":0.2217},"point":{"NDP":0.0,"CON":66.38,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":33.62},"share":{"CON":{"lo90":23.29,"median":66.42,"hi90":86.59},"OTH":{"lo90":13.41,"median":33.58,"hi90":76.71}},"baseline_moves":["Jordan Kealy (Conservative Party 2024, 74.4%) runs as an independent: 29.0 points carried forward (retention 0.39), held out of the swing","Dan Davies (independent 2024, 20.1%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"independent_incumbent","note":"Jordan Kealy (elected Conservative 2024 with 74.4%) left the caucus in March 2025 and runs as an independent. The NDP has no candidate (incomplete paperwork). Two-way race: Kealy v. Conservative Curtis Whitford.","v1":"v1.1: Kealy's 2024 share (74.4%, as a Conservative) is carried forward at the median retention of former party MLAs who ran as independents (0.39, so 29.0 points; log-normal spread, 90% range about 11-70 points), held out of the swing; the Conservative label keeps the rest. The NDP's share (no candidate) moves in proportion to the candidates who run.","why_it_may_matter":"High. An incumbent independent can win: Perry Trimper (NL 2021) kept more than his party share; most former party MLAs keep 15-50%."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"307","name":"Peace River South","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Larry Neufeld","share":69.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":69.8,"IND":24.6,"NDP":5.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":11.97,"CON":81.83,"ONEBC":2.89,"CENTRE":1.98,"OTH":1.32},"running":["NDP","CON","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Larry Neufeld","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9992,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0008,"CON":0.9992},"point":{"NDP":11.88,"CON":84.43,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.69},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":3.04,"median":11.86,"hi90":23.18},"CON":{"lo90":72.35,"median":84.21,"hi90":93.93},"OTH":{"lo90":0.2,"median":3.36,"hi90":9.28}},"baseline_moves":["Mike Bernier (independent 2024, 24.6%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Mike Bernier (ex-BC United MLA, CentreBC leader July-Sept 2026) took 24.6% as an independent in 2024; not running. His vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"308","name":"Penticton-Summerland","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Amelia Boultbee","share":41.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":41.4,"NDP":40.2,"IND":9.7,"GRN":5.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":40.56,"CON":50.95,"GRN":5.48,"ONEBC":1.78,"CENTRE":1.23},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Amelia Boultbee","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7962,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.2036,"CON":0.7962,"GRN":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":38.11,"CON":51.09,"GRN":8.97,"ONEBC":1.83,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":23.6,"median":37.85,"hi90":52.69},"CON":{"lo90":35.84,"median":51.11,"hi90":65.82},"GRN":{"lo90":0.92,"median":8.74,"hi90":18.48},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.38,"hi90":6.32}},"baseline_moves":["Tracy St Claire (independent 2024) runs again as CON","Roger Harrington (independent 2024, 2.9%) not running: transferred","Anna Paddon (independent 2024, 0.5%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Amelia Boultbee (elected Conservative 2024) left the caucus in Oct 2025 and joined the NDP in July 2026; not running. OneBC runs Warren Hamm (former Conservative leadership candidate).","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: no incumbent; a OneBC candidate with a profile could split the Conservative vote."}]},{"id":"309","name":"Port Coquitlam","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Mike Farnworth","share":53.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":53.9,"CON":38.8,"GRN":6.4,"OTH":0.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":53.24,"CON":37.25,"GRN":6.38,"ONEBC":1.3,"CENTRE":0.89,"OTH":0.95},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Mike Farnworth","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7924,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7924,"CON":0.2068,"GRN":0.0008},"point":{"NDP":49.52,"CON":37.46,"GRN":9.86,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.15},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":35.34,"median":49.29,"hi90":62.75},"CON":{"lo90":24.27,"median":37.56,"hi90":51.12},"GRN":{"lo90":1.91,"median":9.63,"hi90":18.71},"OTH":{"lo90":0.04,"median":2.86,"hi90":7.95}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"310","name":"Port Moody-Burquitlam","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Rick Glumac","share":52.1},"shares_2024":{"NDP":52.1,"CON":40.5,"GRN":7.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":51.43,"CON":38.86,"GRN":7.42,"ONEBC":1.35,"CENTRE":0.93},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Rick Glumac","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7221,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7221,"CON":0.2765,"GRN":0.0014},"point":{"NDP":48.45,"CON":39.57,"GRN":11.28,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.71,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":33.99,"median":48.26,"hi90":62.16},"CON":{"lo90":25.84,"median":39.61,"hi90":53.52},"GRN":{"lo90":2.66,"median":10.93,"hi90":20.35},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.39,"hi90":3.7}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"311","name":"Powell River-Sunshine Coast","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Randene Neill","share":49.6},"shares_2024":{"NDP":49.6,"CON":35.7,"GRN":13.5,"IND":1.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":49.36,"CON":35.05,"GRN":13.53,"ONEBC":1.22,"CENTRE":0.84},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Randene Neill","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7534,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7534,"CON":0.2365,"GRN":0.0101},"point":{"NDP":45.87,"CON":35.33,"GRN":18.8,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":31.54,"median":45.74,"hi90":59.82},"CON":{"lo90":22.08,"median":35.42,"hi90":49.42},"GRN":{"lo90":8.04,"median":18.62,"hi90":30.3}},"baseline_moves":["Greg Reid (independent 2024, 1.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"312","name":"Prince George-Mackenzie","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Kiel Giddens","share":60.9},"shares_2024":{"CON":60.9,"NDP":28.2,"GRN":8.5,"IND":2.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":28.39,"CON":59.46,"GRN":8.63,"ONEBC":2.09,"CENTRE":1.44},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Kiel Giddens","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9783,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0205,"CON":0.9783,"GRN":0.0012},"point":{"NDP":26.17,"CON":60.98,"GRN":12.85,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":12.83,"median":25.85,"hi90":39.82},"CON":{"lo90":46.21,"median":61.15,"hi90":75.46},"GRN":{"lo90":3.41,"median":12.54,"hi90":23.23}},"baseline_moves":["Rachael Weber (independent 2024, 2.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"313","name":"Prince George-North Cariboo","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Sheldon Clare","share":56.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":56.8,"IND":21.8,"NDP":17.0,"GRN":4.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":22.38,"CON":67.68,"GRN":5.92,"ONEBC":2.38,"CENTRE":1.64},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Sheldon Clare","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9953,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0045,"CON":0.9953,"GRN":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":20.55,"CON":69.93,"GRN":9.52,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":8.14,"median":20.15,"hi90":33.51},"CON":{"lo90":55.78,"median":70.11,"hi90":83.37},"GRN":{"lo90":1.23,"median":9.4,"hi90":19.21}},"baseline_moves":["Coralee Oakes (independent 2024, 21.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Coralee Oakes (ex-BC United MLA) took 21.8% as an independent in 2024; not running. Her vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"314","name":"Prince George-Valemount","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Rosalyn Bird","share":55.2},"shares_2024":{"CON":55.2,"NDP":34.9,"GRN":9.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":34.41,"CON":52.65,"GRN":9.83,"ONEBC":1.85,"CENTRE":1.27},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Rosalyn Bird","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.902,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0953,"CON":0.902,"GRN":0.0026,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":31.68,"CON":52.14,"GRN":14.31,"ONEBC":1.87,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":17.7,"median":31.32,"hi90":45.36},"CON":{"lo90":37.49,"median":52.05,"hi90":66.92},"GRN":{"lo90":4.21,"median":14.11,"hi90":25.07},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.48,"hi90":6.47}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Rosalyn Bird: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."}]},{"id":"315","name":"Richmond-Bridgeport","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Teresa Wat","share":58.2},"shares_2024":{"CON":58.2,"NDP":34.8,"GRN":3.2,"IND":3.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":35.3,"CON":58.06,"GRN":3.2,"ONEBC":2.04,"CENTRE":1.4},"running":["NDP","CON"],"incumbent":{"name":"Teresa Wat","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9342,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0658,"CON":0.9342},"point":{"NDP":37.88,"CON":62.12,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":24.97,"median":37.8,"hi90":51.35},"CON":{"lo90":48.65,"median":62.2,"hi90":75.03}},"baseline_moves":["Glynnis Hoi Sum Chan (independent 2024, 3.0%) not running: transferred","Charlie Smith (independent 2024, 0.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Teresa Wat: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"316","name":"Richmond Centre","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Hon Chan","share":52.0},"shares_2024":{"CON":52.0,"NDP":36.8,"IND":3.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":38.99,"CON":56.32,"GRN":0.8,"ONEBC":1.97,"CENTRE":1.36,"OTH":0.56},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Hon Chan","party_at_dissolution":"IND","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.918,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.082,"CON":0.918},"point":{"NDP":36.45,"CON":57.71,"GRN":3.01,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.83},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":23.16,"median":36.2,"hi90":49.18},"CON":{"lo90":43.58,"median":57.63,"hi90":70.97},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.64,"hi90":9.45},"OTH":{"lo90":0.05,"median":2.54,"hi90":7.61}},"baseline_moves":["Wendy Yuan (independent 2024, 6.3%) not running: transferred","Dickens Cheung (independent 2024, 3.4%) not running: transferred","Sunny Ho (independent 2024, 1.5%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Hon Chan (elected Conservative 2024, removed from caucus March 2026) is not on the ballot.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: loss of incumbent."}]},{"id":"317","name":"Richmond-Queensborough","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Steve Kooner","share":50.9},"shares_2024":{"CON":50.9,"NDP":44.1,"IND":1.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.79,"CON":51.78,"GRN":0.37,"ONEBC":1.81,"CENTRE":1.25},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Steve Kooner","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7806,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.2193,"CON":0.7806,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":43.09,"CON":54.39,"GRN":2.52,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":29.36,"median":42.88,"hi90":56.4},"CON":{"lo90":40.42,"median":54.34,"hi90":67.9},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.09,"hi90":8.57}},"baseline_moves":["Cindy Wu (independent 2024, 3.7%) not running: transferred","Errol E. Povah (independent 2024, 1.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"318","name":"Richmond-Steveston","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Kelly Greene","share":44.3},"shares_2024":{"NDP":44.3,"CON":42.2,"IND":10.1,"GRN":3.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":45.51,"CON":44.86,"GRN":3.43,"ONEBC":1.57,"CENTRE":4.26,"OTH":0.37},"running":["NDP","CON","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Kelly Greene","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5199,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4801,"CON":0.5199},"point":{"NDP":46.06,"CON":46.6,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":4.53,"OTH":2.8},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.18,"median":45.9,"hi90":59.0},"CON":{"lo90":33.06,"median":46.62,"hi90":59.99},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.69,"median":4.27,"hi90":9.97},"OTH":{"lo90":0.21,"median":2.5,"hi90":7.45}},"baseline_moves":["Jackie Lee (independent 2024, 10.1%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Kelly Greene (NDP) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate: loss of incumbent (The Writ docks a party 3-4 points when its incumbent leaves)."},{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Jackie Lee took 10.1% as an independent in 2024; not running. Her vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"319","name":"Saanich North and the Islands","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"GRN","name":"Rob Botterell","share":36.2},"shares_2024":{"GRN":36.2,"NDP":32.2,"CON":29.8,"IND":1.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":32.14,"CON":29.41,"GRN":36.14,"ONEBC":1.02,"CENTRE":1.29},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Rob Botterell","party_at_dissolution":"GRN","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"GRN","prob":0.7731,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1051,"CON":0.1218,"GRN":0.7731},"point":{"NDP":27.34,"CON":27.55,"GRN":44.15,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.95,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":13.19,"median":26.93,"hi90":41.89},"CON":{"lo90":14.2,"median":27.78,"hi90":42.83},"GRN":{"lo90":27.98,"median":43.57,"hi90":58.67},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.58,"hi90":4.46}},"baseline_moves":["Amy Haysom (independent 2024, 1.9%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"green_seat","note":"One of the Greens' two 2024 seats. Rob Botterell (Green MLA) is not running; Green leader Emily Lowan is the candidate. CentreBC also runs.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"High. The Green hold depends on the candidate and on NDP-Green tactical voting, neither of which is modelled; the riding is close to a three-way contest."}]},{"id":"320","name":"Saanich South","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Lana Popham","share":49.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":49.8,"CON":32.4,"GRN":17.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":49.21,"CON":31.21,"GRN":17.75,"ONEBC":1.08,"CENTRE":0.75},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Lana Popham","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7898,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7898,"CON":0.1668,"GRN":0.0434},"point":{"NDP":45.19,"CON":31.03,"GRN":23.78,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":30.02,"median":45.05,"hi90":59.85},"CON":{"lo90":17.57,"median":31.31,"hi90":46.01},"GRN":{"lo90":10.81,"median":23.33,"hi90":36.75}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Lana Popham (NDP) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate: loss of incumbent (The Writ docks a party 3-4 points when its incumbent leaves)."}]},{"id":"321","name":"Salmon Arm-Shuswap","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"David L. Williams","share":52.1},"shares_2024":{"CON":52.1,"NDP":30.4,"IND":9.2,"GRN":7.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":31.82,"CON":54.17,"GRN":7.58,"ONEBC":1.9,"CENTRE":4.53},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"David Williams","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9384,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0604,"CON":0.9384,"GRN":0.0012},"point":{"NDP":29.04,"CON":53.59,"GRN":11.46,"ONEBC":1.94,"CENTRE":3.98,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":14.71,"median":28.67,"hi90":42.54},"CON":{"lo90":38.63,"median":53.72,"hi90":68.49},"GRN":{"lo90":2.36,"median":11.15,"hi90":21.58},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.54,"hi90":6.63},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.57,"hi90":9.89}},"baseline_moves":["Greg McCune (independent 2024, 9.2%) not running: transferred","Sherry Roy (independent 2024, 1.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"322","name":"Skeena","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Claire Rattée","share":51.2},"shares_2024":{"CON":51.2,"NDP":44.4,"GRN":3.3,"OTH":1.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":43.82,"CON":48.94,"GRN":3.32,"ONEBC":1.71,"CENTRE":1.18,"OTH":1.03},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Claire Rattée","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6889,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3107,"CON":0.6889,"GRN":0.0004},"point":{"NDP":42.0,"CON":49.89,"GRN":6.32,"ONEBC":1.78,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":26.85,"median":41.75,"hi90":56.22},"CON":{"lo90":34.78,"median":49.83,"hi90":64.64},"GRN":{"lo90":0.11,"median":6.02,"hi90":15.1},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.35,"hi90":6.52}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Claire Rattée: left or was removed from the Conservative caucus in September 2026 and returned on 2026-09-21; Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low."}]},{"id":"323","name":"Surrey City Centre","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Amna Shah","share":46.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":46.7,"CON":45.1,"GRN":6.1,"IND":1.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":46.29,"CON":43.68,"GRN":6.07,"ONEBC":1.53,"CENTRE":1.41,"OTH":1.02},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Amna Shah","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5978,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5978,"CON":0.4022},"point":{"NDP":49.83,"CON":45.83,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":1.88,"CENTRE":2.46,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":35.74,"median":49.56,"hi90":63.04},"CON":{"lo90":32.07,"median":45.76,"hi90":59.52},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.17,"median":1.57,"hi90":5.83},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.58,"median":2.29,"hi90":6.07}},"baseline_moves":["Saeed Naguib (independent 2024, 1.1%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"324","name":"Surrey-Cloverdale","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Elenore Sturko","share":48.3},"shares_2024":{"CON":48.3,"NDP":45.6,"GRN":5.4,"OTH":0.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.94,"CON":46.22,"GRN":5.39,"ONEBC":1.62,"CENTRE":1.11,"OTH":0.72},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Elenore Sturko","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":true,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6032,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3962,"CON":0.6032,"GRN":0.0006},"point":{"NDP":42.41,"CON":46.23,"GRN":8.81,"ONEBC":1.67,"CENTRE":0.88,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":28.08,"median":42.26,"hi90":55.92},"CON":{"lo90":32.08,"median":46.06,"hi90":60.25},"GRN":{"lo90":1.23,"median":8.47,"hi90":17.44},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.3,"hi90":5.65},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.57,"hi90":4.08}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_moved","note":"Elenore Sturko (MLA, elected Conservative 2024) is running in Surrey South instead; open seat.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: loss of incumbent."}]},{"id":"325","name":"Surrey-Fleetwood","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Jagrup Brar","share":48.6},"shares_2024":{"NDP":48.6,"CON":44.9,"GRN":6.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":47.98,"CON":43.03,"GRN":6.45,"ONEBC":1.5,"CENTRE":1.03},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jagrup Brar","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5612,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5612,"CON":0.4378,"GRN":0.001},"point":{"NDP":45.0,"CON":42.59,"GRN":10.07,"ONEBC":1.54,"CENTRE":0.8,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":30.54,"median":44.81,"hi90":58.55},"CON":{"lo90":28.6,"median":42.48,"hi90":56.5},"GRN":{"lo90":1.92,"median":9.74,"hi90":19.26},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.21,"hi90":5.4},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.5,"hi90":3.86}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"326","name":"Surrey-Guildford","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Garry Begg","share":46.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":46.9,"CON":46.8,"GRN":4.3,"IND":1.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":46.78,"CON":45.97,"GRN":4.44,"ONEBC":1.61,"CENTRE":1.11,"OTH":0.1},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Garry Begg","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5908,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4085,"CON":0.5908,"GRN":0.0007},"point":{"NDP":43.57,"CON":46.6,"GRN":7.51,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.32},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":29.16,"median":43.26,"hi90":57.09},"CON":{"lo90":32.86,"median":46.65,"hi90":60.27},"GRN":{"lo90":0.68,"median":7.28,"hi90":15.3},"OTH":{"lo90":0.01,"median":1.99,"hi90":6.82}},"baseline_moves":["Kabir Qurban (independent 2024, 1.9%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"327","name":"Surrey-Newton","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Jessie Sunner","share":51.2},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.2,"CON":43.0,"OTH":2.4,"IND":2.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":51.17,"CON":42.79,"ONEBC":1.49,"CENTRE":2.16,"OTH":2.39},"running":["NDP","CON","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jessie Sunner","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.6462,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.6462,"CON":0.3538},"point":{"NDP":51.71,"CON":46.12,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":2.18,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":37.55,"median":51.71,"hi90":65.52},"CON":{"lo90":31.76,"median":45.97,"hi90":60.02},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.95,"hi90":6.31}},"baseline_moves":["Japreet Lehal (independent 2024, 2.2%) not running: transferred","Joginder Singh Randhawa (independent 2024, 1.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"328","name":"Surrey North","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Mandeep Dhaliwal","share":50.7},"shares_2024":{"CON":50.7,"NDP":43.3,"GRN":4.2,"OTH":1.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":42.81,"CON":48.77,"GRN":4.24,"ONEBC":1.71,"CENTRE":1.41,"OTH":1.06},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Mandeep Dhaliwal","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7221,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.2776,"CON":0.7221,"GRN":0.0002,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":39.26,"CON":47.55,"GRN":7.14,"ONEBC":1.72,"CENTRE":1.13,"OTH":3.21},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":25.48,"median":38.89,"hi90":52.29},"CON":{"lo90":33.55,"median":47.5,"hi90":60.83},"GRN":{"lo90":0.28,"median":6.76,"hi90":14.8},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.41,"hi90":5.59},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.83,"hi90":4.46},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.96,"hi90":8.27}},"baseline_moves":["Hobby Nijjar (independent 2024, 0.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"329","name":"Surrey-Panorama","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Bryan Tepper","share":49.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":49.6,"NDP":48.1,"OTH":2.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":47.45,"CON":47.46,"ONEBC":1.66,"CENTRE":1.14,"OTH":2.29},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Bryan Tepper","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6203,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3797,"CON":0.6203},"point":{"NDP":46.52,"CON":50.59,"GRN":1.96,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.94,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":31.68,"median":46.02,"hi90":59.77},"CON":{"lo90":36.32,"median":50.52,"hi90":64.29},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.53,"hi90":8.16},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.58,"hi90":4.23}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"330","name":"Surrey-Serpentine River","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Linda Hepner","share":49.7},"shares_2024":{"CON":49.7,"NDP":47.5,"IND":2.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":47.35,"CON":48.78,"ONEBC":1.71,"CENTRE":2.06,"OTH":0.1},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Linda Hepner","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5888,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4112,"CON":0.5888},"point":{"NDP":45.32,"CON":48.58,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":1.8,"CENTRE":1.98,"OTH":2.33},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":31.16,"median":45.0,"hi90":58.48},"CON":{"lo90":34.43,"median":48.28,"hi90":61.96},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.46,"hi90":5.82},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.78,"hi90":6.0},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.05,"hi90":6.97}},"baseline_moves":["Jim McMurtry (independent 2024, 2.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Linda Hepner (elected Conservative 2024) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"331","name":"Surrey South","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Brent Chapman","share":58.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":58.8,"NDP":41.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":40.55,"CON":56.13,"ONEBC":1.97,"CENTRE":1.35},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Brent Chapman","party_at_dissolution":"ONEBC","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8996,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1003,"CON":0.8996,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":37.67,"CON":57.12,"GRN":1.87,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":1.08,"OTH":2.26},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":23.81,"median":37.12,"hi90":50.41},"CON":{"lo90":42.91,"median":57.07,"hi90":70.01},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.49,"hi90":7.7},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.79,"hi90":4.42},"OTH":{"lo90":0.02,"median":1.93,"hi90":6.88}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"new_party_leader","note":"Elenore Sturko (CentreBC leader; MLA for Surrey-Cloverdale, elected Conservative 2024) runs here. Brent Chapman (elected Conservative 2024 with 58.8%, crossed to OneBC on 2026-09-22) is not on the ballot.","v1":"Not adjusted in the default; seeded in the sensitivity run.","why_it_may_matter":"High. A party leader and sitting MLA could take far more than CentreBC's provincial share. The 'seeded' sensitivity adds 7.5 points."}]},{"id":"332","name":"Surrey-White Rock","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Trevor Halford","share":52.3},"shares_2024":{"CON":52.3,"NDP":45.3,"OTH":2.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.65,"CON":50.01,"ONEBC":1.75,"CENTRE":1.2,"OTH":2.39},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Trevor Halford","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7144,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.2855,"CON":0.7144,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":41.49,"CON":49.31,"GRN":1.87,"ONEBC":1.78,"CENTRE":0.95,"OTH":4.6},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":27.18,"median":40.96,"hi90":54.48},"CON":{"lo90":35.3,"median":49.2,"hi90":62.53},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.47,"hi90":7.62},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.46,"hi90":5.68},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.63,"hi90":4.08},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.38,"hi90":9.92}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Trevor Halford: left or was removed from the Conservative caucus in September 2026 and returned on 2026-09-21; Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low."}]},{"id":"333","name":"Vancouver-Fraserview","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"George Chow","share":57.2},"shares_2024":{"NDP":57.2,"CON":36.6,"GRN":6.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":56.54,"CON":35.21,"GRN":6.18,"ONEBC":1.22,"CENTRE":0.84},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"George Chow","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8725,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8725,"CON":0.1269,"GRN":0.0006},"point":{"NDP":53.91,"CON":36.25,"GRN":9.84,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":39.5,"median":53.81,"hi90":67.17},"CON":{"lo90":23.19,"median":36.32,"hi90":50.16},"GRN":{"lo90":1.89,"median":9.57,"hi90":18.67}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"George Chow (NDP) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate: loss of incumbent (The Writ docks a party 3-4 points when its incumbent leaves)."}]},{"id":"334","name":"Vancouver-Hastings","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Niki Sharma","share":64.1},"shares_2024":{"NDP":64.1,"CON":24.3,"GRN":10.9,"IND":0.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":63.71,"CON":23.79,"GRN":10.87,"ONEBC":0.82,"CENTRE":0.78,"OTH":0.02},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Niki Sharma","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9818,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9818,"CON":0.015,"GRN":0.0032},"point":{"NDP":58.79,"CON":23.25,"GRN":15.23,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.55,"OTH":2.18},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":44.46,"median":58.45,"hi90":71.28},"CON":{"lo90":11.92,"median":23.28,"hi90":35.91},"GRN":{"lo90":5.33,"median":14.9,"hi90":25.47},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.25,"hi90":3.28},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.84,"hi90":6.68}},"baseline_moves":["Zsolt Kiss (independent 2024, 0.7%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"335","name":"Vancouver-Kensington","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Mable Elmore","share":60.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":60.9,"CON":31.5,"GRN":7.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":60.29,"CON":30.37,"GRN":7.56,"ONEBC":1.05,"CENTRE":0.73},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Mable Elmore","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9445,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9445,"CON":0.0549,"GRN":0.0006},"point":{"NDP":57.38,"CON":31.07,"GRN":11.55,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":43.09,"median":57.11,"hi90":70.62},"CON":{"lo90":18.84,"median":31.17,"hi90":45.07},"GRN":{"lo90":2.98,"median":11.28,"hi90":20.95}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"336","name":"Vancouver-Langara","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Sunita Dhir","share":48.4},"shares_2024":{"NDP":48.4,"CON":46.0,"GRN":5.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":47.8,"CON":44.1,"GRN":5.5,"ONEBC":1.54,"CENTRE":1.06},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Sunita Dhir","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5048,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4949,"CON":0.5048,"GRN":0.0003},"point":{"NDP":45.1,"CON":45.19,"GRN":8.88,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.83,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":30.76,"median":44.95,"hi90":58.85},"CON":{"lo90":31.2,"median":45.12,"hi90":59.3},"GRN":{"lo90":1.33,"median":8.64,"hi90":17.53},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.51,"hi90":3.81}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"337","name":"Vancouver-Little Mountain","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Christine Boyle","share":62.1},"shares_2024":{"NDP":62.1,"CON":30.6,"GRN":7.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":61.5,"CON":29.51,"GRN":7.26,"ONEBC":1.02,"CENTRE":0.71},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Christine Boyle","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9595,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9595,"CON":0.0397,"GRN":0.0008},"point":{"NDP":58.62,"CON":30.19,"GRN":11.18,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":44.33,"median":58.44,"hi90":71.78},"CON":{"lo90":17.82,"median":30.32,"hi90":43.84},"GRN":{"lo90":2.84,"median":10.89,"hi90":20.45}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"338","name":"Vancouver-Point Grey","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"David Eby","share":56.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":56.8,"CON":34.5,"GRN":8.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":56.16,"CON":33.2,"GRN":8.69,"ONEBC":1.15,"CENTRE":0.8},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"David Eby","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8978,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8978,"CON":0.1014,"GRN":0.0008},"point":{"NDP":52.94,"CON":33.62,"GRN":12.87,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.58,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":38.3,"median":52.74,"hi90":66.71},"CON":{"lo90":20.54,"median":33.66,"hi90":47.1},"GRN":{"lo90":3.6,"median":12.54,"hi90":22.64},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.26,"hi90":3.36}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"leader_seat","note":"NDP leader David Eby.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low (safe seats)."}]},{"id":"339","name":"Vancouver-Quilchena","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Dallas Brodie","share":51.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":51.6,"NDP":38.9,"GRN":7.8,"IND":1.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":38.66,"CON":50.01,"GRN":7.84,"ONEBC":1.75,"CENTRE":1.74},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Dallas Brodie","party_at_dissolution":"ONEBC","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8259,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.173,"CON":0.8259,"GRN":0.0011},"point":{"NDP":35.66,"CON":49.35,"GRN":11.77,"ONEBC":1.78,"CENTRE":1.44,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":21.84,"median":35.41,"hi90":49.04},"CON":{"lo90":34.84,"median":49.22,"hi90":63.45},"GRN":{"lo90":3.15,"median":11.41,"hi90":21.15},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.45,"hi90":5.84},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.16,"hi90":5.15}},"baseline_moves":["Caroline Ying-Mei Wang (independent 2024, 1.7%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"new_party_leader","note":"Dallas Brodie (OneBC interim leader; elected Conservative 2024 with 51.6%) runs again for OneBC against a new Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in the default; seeded in the sensitivity run.","why_it_may_matter":"High. Splits the right-of-centre vote in a seat the Conservatives won narrowly in 2024; a sitting MLA's personal vote is not in the model. The 'seeded' sensitivity adds 15 points."}]},{"id":"340","name":"Vancouver-Renfrew","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Adrian Dix","share":63.2},"shares_2024":{"NDP":63.2,"CON":30.7,"GRN":6.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":62.59,"CON":29.57,"GRN":6.11,"ONEBC":1.03,"CENTRE":0.71},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Adrian Dix","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9606,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9606,"CON":0.0388,"GRN":0.0006},"point":{"NDP":59.71,"CON":30.11,"GRN":9.68,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.5,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":44.97,"median":59.38,"hi90":72.84},"CON":{"lo90":17.1,"median":30.15,"hi90":43.53},"GRN":{"lo90":1.68,"median":9.45,"hi90":18.67},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.2,"hi90":3.19}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"341","name":"Vancouver-South Granville","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Brenda Bailey","share":64.3},"shares_2024":{"NDP":64.3,"CON":25.0,"GRN":10.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":63.75,"CON":24.13,"GRN":10.71,"ONEBC":0.83,"CENTRE":0.58},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Brenda Bailey","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9837,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9837,"CON":0.0144,"GRN":0.0019},"point":{"NDP":60.02,"CON":23.38,"GRN":15.37,"ONEBC":0.85,"CENTRE":0.38,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":45.02,"median":59.69,"hi90":73.21},"CON":{"lo90":11.31,"median":23.2,"hi90":36.44},"GRN":{"lo90":5.42,"median":15.14,"hi90":25.77},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.49,"hi90":4.05},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.1,"hi90":2.95}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Brenda Bailey (NDP) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate: loss of incumbent (The Writ docks a party 3-4 points when its incumbent leaves)."}]},{"id":"342","name":"Vancouver-Strathcona","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Joan Phillip","share":68.2},"shares_2024":{"NDP":68.2,"CON":17.1,"GRN":13.1,"OTH":1.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":67.71,"CON":16.62,"GRN":13.03,"ONEBC":0.57,"CENTRE":0.4,"OTH":1.67},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Vacant","party_at_dissolution":null,"not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":"vacant"},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.992,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.992,"CON":0.0044,"GRN":0.0036},"point":{"NDP":62.32,"CON":16.05,"GRN":17.84,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.79},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":47.87,"median":62.07,"hi90":74.88},"CON":{"lo90":6.17,"median":16.16,"hi90":27.75},"GRN":{"lo90":7.48,"median":17.54,"hi90":28.98},"OTH":{"lo90":0.04,"median":3.6,"hi90":8.86}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"vacant","note":"Vacant: Joan Phillip (NDP) died 2026-08-28; no by-election. NDP candidate Amanda Burrows.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low (safe NDP seat)."}]},{"id":"343","name":"Vancouver-West End","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Spencer Chandra Herbert","share":63.0},"shares_2024":{"NDP":63.0,"CON":27.2,"GRN":9.1,"IND":0.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":62.61,"CON":26.72,"GRN":9.11,"ONEBC":0.93,"CENTRE":0.64},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Spencer Chandra Herbert","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9721,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9721,"CON":0.0263,"GRN":0.0016},"point":{"NDP":59.41,"CON":27.14,"GRN":13.46,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":44.95,"median":59.18,"hi90":72.66},"CON":{"lo90":15.35,"median":27.29,"hi90":40.57},"GRN":{"lo90":4.26,"median":13.19,"hi90":23.23}},"baseline_moves":["Carl Turnbull (independent 2024, 0.7%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"344","name":"Vancouver-Yaletown","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Terry Yung","share":49.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":49.8,"CON":43.4,"GRN":6.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":49.13,"CON":41.56,"GRN":6.86,"ONEBC":1.45,"CENTRE":1.0},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Terry Yung","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5971,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5971,"CON":0.4025,"GRN":0.0004},"point":{"NDP":46.25,"CON":42.4,"GRN":10.59,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.77,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.11,"median":45.99,"hi90":59.54},"CON":{"lo90":28.87,"median":42.45,"hi90":56.36},"GRN":{"lo90":2.44,"median":10.28,"hi90":19.64},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.45,"hi90":3.77}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"345","name":"Vernon-Lumby","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Harwinder Sandhu","share":42.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":42.7,"CON":41.0,"IND":15.4,"OTH":1.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":42.06,"CON":53.81,"ONEBC":1.88,"CENTRE":1.3,"OTH":0.95},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Harwinder Sandhu","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8224,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1774,"CON":0.8224,"GRN":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":40.6,"CON":55.35,"GRN":2.07,"ONEBC":1.98,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":25.2,"median":39.92,"hi90":54.47},"CON":{"lo90":40.32,"median":55.14,"hi90":69.8},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.73,"hi90":9.29},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.55,"hi90":6.67}},"baseline_moves":["Kevin Acton (independent 2024) runs again as CON"],"notes":[{"type":"returning_candidate","note":"Kevin Acton took 15.4% as an independent in 2024 and is the 2026 Conservative candidate (assumed the same person); v1 moves his 2024 vote to the Conservatives.","v1":"His 2024 votes are assigned to the Conservatives (rule: a returning candidate keeps their vote).","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: if his 2024 voters do not follow him, the Conservative share is overstated."}]},{"id":"346","name":"Victoria-Beacon Hill","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Grace Lore","share":47.4},"shares_2024":{"NDP":47.4,"GRN":33.5,"CON":19.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":46.96,"CON":18.52,"GRN":33.43,"ONEBC":0.64,"CENTRE":0.44},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Grace Lore","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.4977,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4977,"CON":0.0137,"GRN":0.4886},"point":{"NDP":41.22,"CON":17.38,"GRN":41.4,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":25.81,"median":41.03,"hi90":56.63},"CON":{"lo90":6.16,"median":17.74,"hi90":31.26},"GRN":{"lo90":25.14,"median":41.0,"hi90":55.76}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"notable_candidate","note":"The Conservatives dropped their candidate, Joachim Agou, on 2026-10-08 over social-media posts; he stays on the ballot as the Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low (safe NDP seat), but the Conservative share is likely overstated."}]},{"id":"347","name":"Victoria-Swan Lake","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Nina Krieger","share":56.0},"shares_2024":{"NDP":56.0,"GRN":23.2,"CON":20.2,"OTH":0.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":55.58,"CON":19.56,"GRN":23.11,"ONEBC":0.68,"CENTRE":0.47,"OTH":0.61},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Nina Krieger","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8952,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8952,"CON":0.0159,"GRN":0.0889},"point":{"NDP":50.8,"CON":19.03,"GRN":30.18,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":35.22,"median":50.42,"hi90":65.75},"CON":{"lo90":7.39,"median":19.41,"hi90":32.8},"GRN":{"lo90":15.6,"median":29.67,"hi90":44.11}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"348","name":"West Kelowna-Peachland","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Macklin McCall","share":50.9},"shares_2024":{"CON":50.9,"NDP":27.9,"IND":21.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":32.95,"CON":61.8,"GRN":1.59,"ONEBC":2.17,"CENTRE":1.49},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Macklin McCall","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9725,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0273,"CON":0.9725,"GRN":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":31.23,"CON":64.67,"GRN":4.1,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":17.53,"median":30.86,"hi90":44.86},"CON":{"lo90":50.18,"median":64.62,"hi90":78.45},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.72,"hi90":11.69}},"baseline_moves":["Stephen Johnston (independent 2024, 21.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Stephen Johnston took 21.2% as an independent in 2024; not running. His vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"349","name":"West Vancouver-Capilano","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Lynne Block","share":46.7},"shares_2024":{"CON":46.7,"NDP":27.1,"IND":20.6,"GRN":5.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":32.05,"CON":57.47,"GRN":7.08,"ONEBC":2.02,"CENTRE":1.39},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Lynne Block","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":true,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9625,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0366,"CON":0.9625,"GRN":0.0009},"point":{"NDP":29.63,"CON":57.36,"GRN":10.95,"ONEBC":2.05,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":16.72,"median":29.42,"hi90":42.38},"CON":{"lo90":43.45,"median":57.38,"hi90":71.0},"GRN":{"lo90":2.55,"median":10.64,"hi90":20.41},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.7,"hi90":6.33}},"baseline_moves":["Karin Kirkpatrick (independent 2024, 20.6%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_moved","note":"Lynne Block (elected Conservative 2024) is running in North Vancouver-Seymour instead; open seat. In 2024 Karin Kirkpatrick (ex-BC United, later CentreBC founder) took 20.6% here as an independent; that vote is transferred.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: open seat; where Kirkpatrick's 2024 vote goes is an assumption."}]},{"id":"350","name":"West Vancouver-Sea to Sky","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"GRN","name":"Jeremy Valeriote","share":38.1},"shares_2024":{"GRN":38.1,"CON":35.6,"NDP":26.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":25.97,"CON":34.07,"GRN":37.95,"ONEBC":1.19,"CENTRE":0.82},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jeremy Valeriote","party_at_dissolution":"GRN","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"GRN","prob":0.809,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0271,"CON":0.1639,"GRN":0.809},"point":{"NDP":21.63,"CON":31.84,"GRN":45.98,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.55,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":9.86,"median":21.34,"hi90":34.4},"CON":{"lo90":18.86,"median":32.01,"hi90":46.07},"GRN":{"lo90":30.57,"median":45.61,"hi90":59.35},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.22,"hi90":3.27}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"green_seat","note":"The Greens' other 2024 seat. Jeremy Valeriote (Green MLA, interim leader 2025) runs again; CentreBC runs Dan Wood.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"High: Green incumbency is not modelled, so v1 probably understates the Green."}]}],"changes":{"from_file":"2026-08-03_yorkville-strategies.json","average":{"NDP":-3.89,"CON":1.88,"GRN":0.05,"ONEBC":0.5,"CENTRE":1.0,"OTH":0.45},"seat_median":{"NDP":-9.0,"CON":9.0,"GRN":1.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"p_majority":{"NDP":-0.3356,"CON":0.3074,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"p_minority":0.0282,"leader_changes":["261","272","274","275","280","283","289","293","294","302","318","324","326","329","330","336"]},"average_series":{"NDP":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-26",null],["2024-11-02",null],["2024-11-09",null],["2024-11-16",null],["2024-11-23",null],["2024-11-30",null],["2024-12-07",null],["2024-12-14",null],["2024-12-21",null],["2024-12-28",null],["2025-01-04",null],["2025-01-11",null],["2025-01-18",null],["2025-01-25",null],["2025-02-01",45.66],["2025-02-08",45.83],["2025-02-15",45.9],["2025-02-22",45.87],["2025-03-01",45.75],["2025-03-08",45.55],["2025-03-15",45.33],["2025-03-22",45.1],["2025-03-29",44.93],["2025-04-05",44.85],["2025-04-12",44.84],["2025-04-19",44.84],["2025-04-26",44.78],["2025-05-03",44.67],["2025-05-10",44.5],["2025-05-17",44.26],["2025-05-24",43.97],["2025-05-31",43.64],["2025-06-07",43.28],["2025-06-14",42.93],["2025-06-21",42.6],["2025-06-28",42.3],["2025-07-05",42.04],["2025-07-12",41.83],["2025-07-19",41.69],["2025-07-26",41.68],["2025-08-02",41.85],["2025-08-09",42.15],["2025-08-16",42.45],["2025-08-23",42.76],["2025-08-30",43.1],["2025-09-06",43.46],["2025-09-13",43.79],["2025-09-20",44.06],["2025-09-27",44.24],["2025-10-04",44.31],["2025-10-11",44.28],["2025-10-18",44.14],["2025-10-25",43.89],["2025-11-01",43.54],["2025-11-08",43.16],["2025-11-15",42.83],["2025-11-22",42.6],["2025-11-29",42.48],["2025-12-06",42.41],["2025-12-13",42.38],["2025-12-20",42.36],["2025-12-27",42.38],["2026-01-03",42.41],["2026-01-10",42.41],["2026-01-17",42.28],["2026-01-24",41.99],["2026-01-31",41.61],["2026-02-07",41.21],["2026-02-14",40.85],["2026-02-21",40.57],["2026-02-28",40.38],["2026-03-07",40.28],["2026-03-14",40.24],["2026-03-21",40.22],["2026-03-28",40.18],["2026-04-04",40.05],["2026-04-11",39.81],["2026-04-18",39.51],["2026-04-25",39.22],["2026-05-02",39.05],["2026-05-09",39.08],["2026-05-16",39.26],["2026-05-23",39.49],["2026-05-30",39.67],["2026-06-06",39.81],["2026-06-13",39.97],["2026-06-20",40.24],["2026-06-27",40.65],["2026-07-04",41.15],["2026-07-11",41.53],["2026-07-18",41.68],["2026-07-25",41.58],["2026-08-01",41.34],["2026-08-08",41.03]],"CON":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-26",null],["2024-11-02",null],["2024-11-09",null],["2024-11-16",null],["2024-11-23",null],["2024-11-30",null],["2024-12-07",null],["2024-12-14",null],["2024-12-21",null],["2024-12-28",null],["2025-01-04",null],["2025-01-11",null],["2025-01-18",null],["2025-01-25",null],["2025-02-01",41.55],["2025-02-08",41.51],["2025-02-15",41.49],["2025-02-22",41.5],["2025-03-01",41.55],["2025-03-08",41.65],["2025-03-15",41.85],["2025-03-22",42.25],["2025-03-29",42.98],["2025-04-05",43.91],["2025-04-12",44.53],["2025-04-19",44.56],["2025-04-26",44.18],["2025-05-03",43.61],["2025-05-10",43.03],["2025-05-17",42.52],["2025-05-24",42.17],["2025-05-31",42.02],["2025-06-07",42.03],["2025-06-14",42.18],["2025-06-21",42.41],["2025-06-28",42.67],["2025-07-05",42.92],["2025-07-12",43.15],["2025-07-19",43.36],["2025-07-26",43.53],["2025-08-02",43.56],["2025-08-09",43.37],["2025-08-16",43.0],["2025-08-23",42.51],["2025-08-30",41.94],["2025-09-06",41.35],["2025-09-13",40.82],["2025-09-20",40.39],["2025-09-27",40.09],["2025-10-04",39.9],["2025-10-11",39.79],["2025-10-18",39.72],["2025-10-25",39.66],["2025-11-01",39.57],["2025-11-08",39.46],["2025-11-15",39.37],["2025-11-22",39.34],["2025-11-29",39.37],["2025-12-06",39.45],["2025-12-13",39.54],["2025-12-20",39.62],["2025-12-27",39.65],["2026-01-03",39.6],["2026-01-10",39.48],["2026-01-17",39.41],["2026-01-24",39.49],["2026-01-31",39.73],["2026-02-07",40.03],["2026-02-14",40.33],["2026-02-21",40.57],["2026-02-28",40.7],["2026-03-07",40.69],["2026-03-14",40.53],["2026-03-21",40.22],["2026-03-28",39.84],["2026-04-04",39.52],["2026-04-11",39.4],["2026-04-18",39.6],["2026-04-25",40.16],["2026-05-02",41.06],["2026-05-09",42.14],["2026-05-16",43.12],["2026-05-23",43.8],["2026-05-30",44.16],["2026-06-06",44.27],["2026-06-13",44.19],["2026-06-20",43.89],["2026-06-27",43.39],["2026-07-04",42.76],["2026-07-11",42.23],["2026-07-18",41.93],["2026-07-25",41.86],["2026-08-01",41.94],["2026-08-08",42.1]],"GRN":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-26",null],["2024-11-02",null],["2024-11-09",null],["2024-11-16",null],["2024-11-23",null],["2024-11-30",null],["2024-12-07",null],["2024-12-14",null],["2024-12-21",null],["2024-12-28",null],["2025-01-04",null],["2025-01-11",null],["2025-01-18",null],["2025-01-25",null],["2025-02-01",9.32],["2025-02-08",9.3],["2025-02-15",9.35],["2025-02-22",9.45],["2025-03-01",9.6],["2025-03-08",9.76],["2025-03-15",9.87],["2025-03-22",9.83],["2025-03-29",9.52],["2025-04-05",8.94],["2025-04-12",8.43],["2025-04-19",8.25],["2025-04-26",8.32],["2025-05-03",8.5],["2025-05-10",8.69],["2025-05-17",8.81],["2025-05-24",8.83],["2025-05-31",8.75],["2025-06-07",8.59],["2025-06-14",8.37],["2025-06-21",8.14],["2025-06-28",7.92],["2025-07-05",7.73],["2025-07-12",7.62],["2025-07-19",7.67],["2025-07-26",8.05],["2025-08-02",8.81],["2025-08-09",9.54],["2025-08-16",9.9],["2025-08-23",10.02],["2025-08-30",10.04],["2025-09-06",10.01],["2025-09-13",9.95],["2025-09-20",9.88],["2025-09-27",9.8],["2025-10-04",9.72],["2025-10-11",9.66],["2025-10-18",9.6],["2025-10-25",9.55],["2025-11-01",9.51],["2025-11-08",9.46],["2025-11-15",9.43],["2025-11-22",9.42],["2025-11-29",9.43],["2025-12-06",9.46],["2025-12-13",9.49],["2025-12-20",9.53],["2025-12-27",9.58],["2026-01-03",9.65],["2026-01-10",9.77],["2026-01-17",9.97],["2026-01-24",10.19],["2026-01-31",10.39],["2026-02-07",10.55],["2026-02-14",10.67],["2026-02-21",10.76],["2026-02-28",10.84],["2026-03-07",10.94],["2026-03-14",11.09],["2026-03-21",11.33],["2026-03-28",11.65],["2026-04-04",12.02],["2026-04-11",12.36],["2026-04-18",12.57],["2026-04-25",12.54],["2026-05-02",12.2],["2026-05-09",11.56],["2026-05-16",10.8],["2026-05-23",10.19],["2026-05-30",9.82],["2026-06-06",9.7],["2026-06-13",9.77],["2026-06-20",10.02],["2026-06-27",10.43],["2026-07-04",10.92],["2026-07-11",11.36],["2026-07-18",11.67],["2026-07-25",11.85],["2026-08-01",11.93],["2026-08-08",11.97]],"ONEBC":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-26",null],["2024-11-02",null],["2024-11-09",null],["2024-11-16",null],["2024-11-23",null],["2024-11-30",null],["2024-12-07",null],["2024-12-14",null],["2024-12-21",null],["2024-12-28",null],["2025-01-04",null],["2025-01-11",null],["2025-01-18",null],["2025-01-25",null],["2025-02-01",null],["2025-02-08",null],["2025-02-15",null],["2025-02-22",null],["2025-03-01",null],["2025-03-08",null],["2025-03-15",null],["2025-03-22",null],["2025-03-29",null],["2025-04-05",null],["2025-04-12",null],["2025-04-19",null],["2025-04-26",null],["2025-05-03",null],["2025-05-10",null],["2025-05-17",null],["2025-05-24",null],["2025-05-31",null],["2025-06-07",null],["2025-06-14",null],["2025-06-21",null],["2025-06-28",null],["2025-07-05",null],["2025-07-12",null],["2025-07-19",null],["2025-07-26",null],["2025-08-02",null],["2025-08-09",null],["2025-08-16",null],["2025-08-23",null],["2025-08-30",null],["2025-09-06",null],["2025-09-13",null],["2025-09-20",null],["2025-09-27",null],["2025-10-04",2.67],["2025-10-11",2.88],["2025-10-18",3.17],["2025-10-25",3.61],["2025-11-01",4.21],["2025-11-08",4.91],["2025-11-15",5.6],["2025-11-22",6.13],["2025-11-29",6.48],["2025-12-06",6.68],["2025-12-13",6.78],["2025-12-20",6.8],["2025-12-27",6.76],["2026-01-03",6.62],["2026-01-10",6.39],["2026-01-17",6.11],["2026-01-24",5.88],["2026-01-31",5.74],["2026-02-07",5.66],["2026-02-14",5.62],["2026-02-21",5.61],["2026-02-28",5.62],["2026-03-07",5.68],["2026-03-14",5.83],["2026-03-21",6.08],["2026-03-28",6.4],["2026-04-04",6.73],["2026-04-11",7.01],["2026-04-18",7.19],["2026-04-25",7.2],["2026-05-02",6.89],["2026-05-09",6.1],["2026-05-16",4.91],["2026-05-23",3.7],["2026-05-30",2.85],["2026-06-06",2.37],["2026-06-13",2.11],["2026-06-20",1.94],["2026-06-27",1.78],["2026-07-04",1.63],["2026-07-11",1.54],["2026-07-18",1.5],["2026-07-25",1.5],["2026-08-01",1.51],["2026-08-08",1.52]],"CENTRE":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-26",null],["2024-11-02",null],["2024-11-09",null],["2024-11-16",null],["2024-11-23",null],["2024-11-30",null],["2024-12-07",null],["2024-12-14",null],["2024-12-21",null],["2024-12-28",null],["2025-01-04",null],["2025-01-11",null],["2025-01-18",null],["2025-01-25",null],["2025-02-01",null],["2025-02-08",null],["2025-02-15",null],["2025-02-22",null],["2025-03-01",null],["2025-03-08",null],["2025-03-15",null],["2025-03-22",null],["2025-03-29",null],["2025-04-05",null],["2025-04-12",null],["2025-04-19",null],["2025-04-26",null],["2025-05-03",null],["2025-05-10",null],["2025-05-17",null],["2025-05-24",null],["2025-05-31",null],["2025-06-07",null],["2025-06-14",null],["2025-06-21",null],["2025-06-28",null],["2025-07-05",null],["2025-07-12",null],["2025-07-19",null],["2025-07-26",null],["2025-08-02",null],["2025-08-09",null],["2025-08-16",null],["2025-08-23",null],["2025-08-30",null],["2025-09-06",null],["2025-09-13",null],["2025-09-20",null],["2025-09-27",null],["2025-10-04",2.47],["2025-10-11",2.37],["2025-10-18",2.25],["2025-10-25",2.14],["2025-11-01",2.04],["2025-11-08",1.96],["2025-11-15",1.91],["2025-11-22",1.89],["2025-11-29",null],["2025-12-06",null],["2025-12-13",null],["2025-12-20",null],["2025-12-27",null],["2026-01-03",null],["2026-01-10",null],["2026-01-17",null],["2026-01-24",null],["2026-01-31",null],["2026-02-07",null],["2026-02-14",null],["2026-02-21",null],["2026-02-28",null],["2026-03-07",null],["2026-03-14",null],["2026-03-21",null],["2026-03-28",null],["2026-04-04",null],["2026-04-11",null],["2026-04-18",null],["2026-04-25",null],["2026-05-02",null],["2026-05-09",null],["2026-05-16",null],["2026-05-23",null],["2026-05-30",null],["2026-06-06",2.92],["2026-06-13",2.79],["2026-06-20",2.54],["2026-06-27",2.1],["2026-07-04",1.61],["2026-07-11",1.25],["2026-07-18",1.07],["2026-07-25",1.02],["2026-08-01",1.02],["2026-08-08",1.05]]},"file":"2026-08-08_604-polling.json","publication":{"date":"2026-08-08","path":"by-date/2026-08-08.json","snapshots_that_day":["2026-08-08_604-polling.json"],"new_polls":[{"date":"2026-08-08","firm":"604 Polling","sample":1124,"values":{"NDP":35,"CON":45,"GRN":12,"ONEBC":2,"CENTRE":2}}],"previous_date":"2026-08-03","changes":{"from_date":"2026-08-03","from_file":"2026-08-03_yorkville-strategies.json","average":{"NDP":-3.89,"CON":1.88,"GRN":0.05,"ONEBC":0.5,"CENTRE":1.0,"OTH":0.45},"seat_median":{"NDP":-9.0,"CON":9.0,"GRN":1.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"p_majority":{"NDP":-0.3356,"CON":0.3074,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"p_minority":0.0282,"leader_changes":[{"id":"261","name":"Boundary-Similkameen","from":"NDP","to":"CON"},{"id":"272","name":"Coquitlam-Burke Mountain","from":"NDP","to":"CON"},{"id":"274","name":"Courtenay-Comox","from":"NDP","to":"CON"},{"id":"275","name":"Cowichan Valley","from":"NDP","to":"CON"},{"id":"280","name":"Juan de Fuca-Malahat","from":"NDP","to":"CON"},{"id":"283","name":"Kelowna Centre","from":"NDP","to":"CON"},{"id":"289","name":"Ladysmith-Oceanside","from":"NDP","to":"CON"},{"id":"293","name":"Langley-Willowbrook","from":"NDP","to":"CON"},{"id":"294","name":"Maple Ridge East","from":"NDP","to":"CON"},{"id":"302","name":"North Island","from":"NDP","to":"CON"},{"id":"318","name":"Richmond-Steveston","from":"NDP","to":"CON"},{"id":"324","name":"Surrey-Cloverdale","from":"NDP","to":"CON"},{"id":"326","name":"Surrey-Guildford","from":"NDP","to":"CON"},{"id":"329","name":"Surrey-Panorama","from":"NDP","to":"CON"},{"id":"330","name":"Surrey-Serpentine River","from":"NDP","to":"CON"},{"id":"336","name":"Vancouver-Langara","from":"NDP","to":"CON"}]}}}