{"title":"British Columbia 2026 seat projection","label":"Projection, not a poll.","version":"bc-shadow-v1","generated":"2026-10-10T05:16:32+00:00","backfilled":true,"as_of":"2026-04-06","freeze_at":"2026-10-23 23:59:59 America/Vancouver (PDT, UTC-7)","data_window":{"from":"2024-10-20","to":"2026-04-06","rule":"Polls dated after the 2024 election, up to the newest poll; kernel weights as on the site."},"poll_set_hash":"8500c4cbbe95cee7","polls_used":[{"date":"2025-01-26","firm":"Leger","sample":1001,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":42,"GRN":10},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-02-15","firm":"Pallas Data","sample":677,"values":{"NDP":48.8,"CON":40.7,"GRN":7.6},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-03-05","firm":"Research Co.","sample":802,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":42,"GRN":11},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-05-04","firm":"Liaison Strategies","sample":800,"values":{"NDP":45,"CON":47,"GRN":7},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-05-25","firm":"Leger","sample":1032,"values":{"NDP":45,"CON":39,"GRN":11},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-06-09","firm":"Research Co.","sample":803,"values":{"NDP":43,"CON":42,"GRN":8,"ONEBC":1,"CENTRE":2},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-06-24","firm":"Mainstreet Research","sample":943,"values":{"NDP":41,"CON":44,"GRN":7},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-09-05","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":811,"values":{"NDP":42,"CON":44,"GRN":10},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-10-03","firm":"Research Co.","sample":801,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":38,"GRN":12,"ONEBC":1,"CENTRE":3},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-10-06","firm":"Cardinal Research","sample":1088,"values":{"NDP":42.5,"CON":41.3,"GRN":10,"ONEBC":3.8},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-10-12","firm":"Leger","sample":1035,"values":{"NDP":48,"CON":38,"GRN":8},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-10-15","firm":"Abacus Data","sample":1000,"values":{"NDP":47,"CON":40,"GRN":8,"ONEBC":1,"CENTRE":3},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-10-25","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":1044,"values":{"NDP":40,"CON":41,"GRN":11,"ONEBC":5,"CENTRE":1},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-11-25","firm":"EKOS","sample":889,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":35,"GRN":9,"ONEBC":8,"CENTRE":2},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-11-25","firm":"Yorkville Strategies","sample":600,"values":{"NDP":40,"CON":42,"GRN":8,"ONEBC":5},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-12-01","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":463,"values":{"NDP":43,"CON":40,"GRN":11},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-12-13","firm":"Pallas Data","sample":923,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":39,"GRN":9,"ONEBC":7},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-12-18","firm":"Mainstreet Research","sample":1902,"values":{"NDP":41,"CON":41,"GRN":10,"ONEBC":7},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-01-26","firm":"Leger","sample":1003,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":38,"GRN":9,"ONEBC":6},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-02-09","firm":"Leger","sample":1007,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":39,"GRN":9,"ONEBC":5},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-02-14","firm":"Pallas Data","sample":988,"values":{"NDP":42,"CON":37,"GRN":13,"ONEBC":6},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-02-24","firm":"One Persuasion","sample":1005,"values":{"NDP":37,"CON":41,"GRN":11,"ONEBC":6},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-02-27","firm":"Pallas Data","sample":1256,"values":{"NDP":42,"CON":40,"GRN":11,"ONEBC":5},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-03-03","firm":"Innovative Research","sample":991,"values":{"NDP":39,"CON":47,"GRN":10},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-03-13","firm":"Mainstreet Research","sample":1054,"values":{"NDP":39,"CON":37,"GRN":12},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-03-17","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":499,"values":{"NDP":42,"CON":44,"GRN":9},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-04-06","firm":"Leger","sample":1003,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":40,"GRN":10,"ONEBC":3},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]}],"new_polls":[{"date":"2026-04-06","firm":"Leger","sample":1003,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":40,"GRN":10,"ONEBC":3}}],"revised_polls":[],"average":{"NDP":{"mean":41.58,"lo":39.22,"hi":43.94},"CON":{"mean":40.8,"lo":37.77,"hi":43.83},"GRN":{"mean":10.39,"lo":9.34,"hi":11.43},"ONEBC":{"mean":3.67,"lo":2.53,"hi":4.81},"CENTRE":null},"model_target":{"NDP":41.58,"CON":40.8,"GRN":10.39,"ONEBC":3.67,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.57},"parameters":{"sigma_nat":4.601,"sigma_reg":5.246,"sigma_rid":6.785,"df_nat":4,"df_reg":4,"df_rid":4,"alpha":0.5,"draws":10000,"seed":20261024,"absent_transfers":{"GRN":{"NDP":0.6,"CON":0.21,"CENTRE":0.13,"ONEBC":0.03,"OTH":0.03},"ONEBC":{"CON":0.85,"NDP":0.1,"OTH":0.05},"CENTRE":{"CON":0.5,"NDP":0.37,"GRN":0.13}},"bc_united_residual_transfer":{"CENTRE":0.3,"CON":0.44,"NDP":0.175,"GRN":0.05,"OTH":0.035},"new_party_rules":{"ONEBC":"proxy","CENTRE":"proxy"},"regions":["Metro Vancouver","Fraser Valley","Vancouver Island","Interior and North"],"majority":47,"independents_carried":{"306":[{"name":"Jordan Kealy","label_2024":"Conservative Party","kind":"party","share_2024":74.4,"carried":29.0,"sdlog":0.57}]},"independent_rule":{"party":{"median":0.39,"sdlog":0.57},"independent":{"median":1.05,"sdlog":0.25}},"regional_adjustment":{"applied":false,"rule":"shrink province-wide swing toward regional poll splits","groups":{}}},"province":{"seats":{"NDP":{"seats_median":44.0,"seats_mean":44.3109,"seats_lo90":24.0,"seats_hi90":64.0,"p_majority":0.4274,"p_most_seats":0.463,"vote_median":43.2236,"vote_lo90":36.3048,"vote_hi90":49.958},"CON":{"seats_median":46.0,"seats_mean":46.1539,"seats_lo90":26.0,"seats_hi90":67.0,"p_majority":0.4831,"p_most_seats":0.5199,"vote_median":43.8848,"vote_lo90":37.1363,"vote_hi90":50.8233},"GRN":{"seats_median":2.0,"seats_mean":2.2987,"seats_lo90":0.0,"seats_hi90":5.0,"p_majority":0.0001,"p_most_seats":0.0001,"vote_median":9.9384,"vote_lo90":6.0785,"vote_hi90":13.8077},"ONEBC":{"seats_median":0.0,"seats_mean":0.0028,"seats_lo90":0.0,"seats_hi90":0.0,"p_majority":0.0,"p_most_seats":0.0,"vote_median":1.5951,"vote_lo90":0.545,"vote_hi90":2.7827},"CENTRE":{"seats_median":0.0,"seats_mean":0.0,"seats_lo90":0.0,"seats_hi90":0.0,"p_majority":0.0,"p_most_seats":0.0,"vote_median":0.0465,"vote_lo90":0.0144,"vote_hi90":0.0978},"OTH":{"seats_median":0.0,"seats_mean":0.2337,"seats_lo90":0.0,"seats_hi90":1.0,"p_majority":0.0,"p_most_seats":0.0,"vote_median":1.2317,"vote_lo90":0.593,"vote_hi90":1.9627}},"p_minority":0.0894,"p_tied_most_seats":0.017,"ridings_led":{"NDP":41,"CON":50,"GRN":2,"ONEBC":0,"CENTRE":0,"OTH":0},"ridings_led_point":{"NDP":42,"CON":49,"GRN":2,"ONEBC":0,"CENTRE":0,"OTH":0},"categories":{"Solid":15,"Likely":27,"Leans":36,"Toss-up":15},"toss_ups":15,"seat_histogram":{"NDP":{"0":9,"1":5,"2":6,"3":5,"4":8,"5":3,"6":4,"7":8,"8":8,"9":12,"10":9,"11":10,"12":19,"13":16,"14":18,"15":19,"16":21,"17":36,"18":39,"19":36,"20":30,"21":48,"22":42,"23":56,"24":66,"25":74,"26":85,"27":104,"28":116,"29":120,"30":135,"31":167,"32":166,"33":206,"34":216,"35":244,"36":226,"37":298,"38":282,"39":286,"40":340,"41":334,"42":334,"43":398,"44":372,"45":340,"46":350,"47":337,"48":351,"49":356,"50":297,"51":300,"52":283,"53":270,"54":227,"55":227,"56":192,"57":176,"58":165,"59":131,"60":130,"61":107,"62":93,"63":86,"64":87,"65":71,"66":47,"67":44,"68":44,"69":39,"70":22,"71":27,"72":21,"73":19,"74":26,"75":16,"76":7,"77":8,"78":9,"79":8,"80":4,"81":7,"82":9,"83":7,"84":4,"85":5,"86":3,"87":2,"88":3,"89":3,"90":2,"91":2},"CON":{"0":1,"1":1,"2":3,"3":6,"4":3,"5":3,"6":6,"7":7,"8":3,"9":8,"10":10,"11":4,"12":8,"13":5,"14":17,"15":10,"16":11,"17":18,"18":25,"19":25,"20":32,"21":27,"22":38,"23":45,"24":57,"25":49,"26":81,"27":100,"28":86,"29":91,"30":108,"31":137,"32":136,"33":183,"34":171,"35":221,"36":235,"37":227,"38":282,"39":303,"40":322,"41":337,"42":354,"43":320,"44":362,"45":318,"46":373,"47":370,"48":368,"49":351,"50":321,"51":326,"52":295,"53":261,"54":251,"55":234,"56":252,"57":200,"58":196,"59":177,"60":132,"61":136,"62":106,"63":117,"64":90,"65":78,"66":66,"67":63,"68":59,"69":40,"70":38,"71":40,"72":34,"73":38,"74":27,"75":23,"76":24,"77":12,"78":13,"79":20,"80":12,"81":10,"82":4,"83":7,"84":6,"85":7,"86":8,"87":4,"88":2,"89":3,"90":4,"91":2,"92":3,"93":1},"GRN":{"0":1171,"1":2204,"2":2937,"3":1915,"4":891,"5":415,"6":207,"7":96,"8":68,"9":39,"10":24,"11":10,"12":8,"13":4,"14":2,"15":4,"16":2,"17":1,"30":1,"51":1},"ONEBC":{"0":9984,"1":13,"2":1,"3":1,"10":1},"OTH":{"0":7666,"1":2331,"2":3}},"projected_vote":{"NDP":43.42,"CON":43.87,"GRN":9.89,"ONEBC":1.58,"CENTRE":0.04,"OTH":1.19}},"ridings":[{"id":"258","name":"Abbotsford-Mission","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Reann Gasper","share":55.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":55.4,"NDP":44.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.23,"CON":51.32,"ONEBC":4.45},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Vacant","party_at_dissolution":null,"not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":"vacant"},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6958,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.304,"CON":0.6958,"ONEBC":0.0001,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":41.63,"CON":50.28,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":4.53,"CENTRE":0.13,"OTH":3.43},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":26.62,"median":41.83,"hi90":56.47},"CON":{"lo90":34.35,"median":49.96,"hi90":64.89},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.02,"median":4.2,"hi90":11.42},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.08,"hi90":0.93},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.0,"hi90":9.73}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"vacant","note":"Vacant: Reann Gasper (Conservative) resigned 2026-08-22; the 2026-09-26 by-election was cancelled by dissolution. Kerry-Lynne Findlay is not a candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: no incumbent."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"259","name":"Abbotsford South","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Bruce Banman","share":61.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":61.6,"NDP":35.2,"IND":3.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":35.77,"CON":59.09,"ONEBC":5.13},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Bruce Banman","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.92,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.08,"CON":0.92},"point":{"NDP":34.65,"CON":59.95,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":5.4,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":20.78,"median":34.92,"hi90":50.14},"CON":{"lo90":44.05,"median":59.64,"hi90":74.01},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.09,"median":5.0,"hi90":12.88}},"baseline_moves":["Amandeep Singh (independent 2024, 3.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Bruce Banman: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"260","name":"Abbotsford West","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Korky Neufeld","share":58.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":58.4,"NDP":36.9,"IND":4.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":37.89,"CON":57.15,"ONEBC":4.96},"running":["NDP","CON","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Korky Neufeld","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9224,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0776,"CON":0.9224},"point":{"NDP":37.26,"CON":62.6,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.14,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":22.56,"median":37.23,"hi90":52.29},"CON":{"lo90":47.41,"median":62.49,"hi90":77.14},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.09,"hi90":1.02}},"baseline_moves":["James Davison (independent 2024, 4.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"261","name":"Boundary-Similkameen","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Donegal Wilson","share":48.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":48.4,"NDP":42.6,"GRN":5.9,"IND":3.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":43.08,"CON":46.95,"GRN":5.89,"ONEBC":4.07},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Donegal Wilson","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5631,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4368,"CON":0.5631,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":46.6,"CON":48.9,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":4.5,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":31.9,"median":46.39,"hi90":60.88},"CON":{"lo90":34.28,"median":48.97,"hi90":63.51},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.27,"median":4.04,"hi90":11.24}},"baseline_moves":["Sean Taylor (independent 2024, 3.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Donegal Wilson: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"262","name":"Bulkley Valley-Stikine","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Sharon L. Hartwell","share":52.3},"shares_2024":{"CON":52.3,"NDP":38.9,"GRN":6.3,"OTH":2.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":38.53,"CON":48.45,"GRN":6.33,"ONEBC":4.2,"OTH":2.49},"running":["NDP","CON","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Sharon Hartwell","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7661,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.2337,"CON":0.7661,"OTH":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":41.34,"CON":52.31,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":6.35},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":27.47,"median":41.11,"hi90":54.97},"CON":{"lo90":38.3,"median":52.46,"hi90":66.39},"OTH":{"lo90":0.81,"median":5.97,"hi90":13.16}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"263","name":"Burnaby Centre","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Anne Kang","share":57.3},"shares_2024":{"NDP":57.3,"CON":42.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":56.81,"CON":39.76,"ONEBC":3.43},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Anne Kang","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7789,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7789,"CON":0.2211},"point":{"NDP":55.64,"CON":43.31,"GRN":1.05,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":41.07,"median":55.11,"hi90":68.84},"CON":{"lo90":29.34,"median":43.26,"hi90":57.07},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.68,"hi90":6.69}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"264","name":"Burnaby East","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Reah Arora","share":51.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.8,"CON":40.5,"GRN":7.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":51.42,"CON":37.69,"GRN":7.63,"ONEBC":3.26},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Rohini Arora","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7851,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7851,"CON":0.2144,"GRN":0.0005},"point":{"NDP":49.19,"CON":37.47,"GRN":9.97,"ONEBC":3.37,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":34.96,"median":49.07,"hi90":62.89},"CON":{"lo90":24.23,"median":37.46,"hi90":51.4},"GRN":{"lo90":1.78,"median":9.72,"hi90":19.06},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.03,"hi90":8.89}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"265","name":"Burnaby-New Westminster","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Raj Chouhan","share":60.0},"shares_2024":{"NDP":60.0,"CON":34.7,"IND":5.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":60.9,"CON":35.64,"GRN":0.4,"ONEBC":3.07},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Raj Chouhan","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9008,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9008,"CON":0.0992},"point":{"NDP":59.74,"CON":38.74,"GRN":1.52,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":45.18,"median":59.3,"hi90":72.41},"CON":{"lo90":25.28,"median":38.68,"hi90":52.81},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.18,"hi90":7.3}},"baseline_moves":["Daniel Kofi Ampong (independent 2024, 5.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"266","name":"Burnaby North","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Janet Routledge","share":53.3},"shares_2024":{"NDP":53.3,"CON":43.0,"IND":3.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":53.79,"CON":42.27,"GRN":0.28,"ONEBC":3.65},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Janet Routledge","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7243,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7243,"CON":0.2756,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":52.17,"CON":42.63,"GRN":1.38,"ONEBC":3.83,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":37.15,"median":51.64,"hi90":65.53},"CON":{"lo90":28.48,"median":42.57,"hi90":56.59},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.98,"hi90":7.05},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.44,"hi90":9.64}},"baseline_moves":["Martin Kendell (independent 2024, 3.7%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"267","name":"Burnaby South-Metrotown","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Paul Choi","share":49.3},"shares_2024":{"NDP":49.3,"CON":41.6,"GRN":6.3,"IND":1.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":49.66,"CON":40.38,"GRN":6.48,"ONEBC":3.49},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Paul Choi","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.6886,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.6886,"CON":0.311,"GRN":0.0003,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":47.5,"CON":40.25,"GRN":8.63,"ONEBC":3.62,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":33.25,"median":47.46,"hi90":61.26},"CON":{"lo90":26.41,"median":40.24,"hi90":54.56},"GRN":{"lo90":0.9,"median":8.3,"hi90":17.1},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.23,"hi90":9.16}},"baseline_moves":["Meiling Chia (independent 2024, 1.9%) not running: transferred","MichaelAngelo Abc RobinHood (independent 2024, 0.9%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"268","name":"Cariboo-Chilcotin","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Lorne Doerkson","share":69.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":69.6,"NDP":30.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":30.13,"CON":64.28,"ONEBC":5.59},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Lorne Doerkson","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9862,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0137,"CON":0.9862,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":28.83,"CON":70.13,"GRN":1.04,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":15.19,"median":28.5,"hi90":42.45},"CON":{"lo90":55.31,"median":69.58,"hi90":82.87},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.69,"hi90":7.67}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"leader_seat","note":"Conservative interim leader Lorne Doerkson.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low (safe seats)."}]},{"id":"269","name":"Chilliwack-Cultus Lake","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"A'aliya Warbus","share":54.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":54.6,"NDP":45.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":45.03,"CON":50.58,"ONEBC":4.38},"running":["NDP","CON"],"incumbent":{"name":"Áʼa꞉líya Warbus","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7314,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.2686,"CON":0.7314},"point":{"NDP":44.54,"CON":55.46,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":29.32,"median":44.53,"hi90":60.25},"CON":{"lo90":39.75,"median":55.47,"hi90":70.68}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Áʼa꞉líya Warbus: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"270","name":"Chilliwack North","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Heather Maahs","share":54.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":54.6,"NDP":37.7,"GRN":5.5,"IND":2.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":37.33,"CON":50.53,"GRN":5.5,"ONEBC":4.38,"CENTRE":2.26},"running":["NDP","CON","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Heather Maahs","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8282,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1718,"CON":0.8282},"point":{"NDP":41.38,"CON":57.56,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":1.06,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":26.4,"median":41.38,"hi90":56.64},"CON":{"lo90":42.25,"median":57.62,"hi90":72.68},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.03,"median":1.0,"hi90":2.28}},"baseline_moves":["Dan Grice (independent 2024) runs again as CENTRE"],"notes":[{"type":"returning_candidate","note":"Dan Grice took 2.3% as an independent in 2024 and is the 2026 CentreBC candidate; v1 moves his 2024 vote to CentreBC.","v1":"His 2024 votes are assigned to CentreBC.","why_it_may_matter":"Low."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"271","name":"Columbia River-Revelstoke","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Scott McInnis","share":47.9},"shares_2024":{"CON":47.9,"NDP":44.3,"GRN":7.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":43.88,"CON":44.45,"GRN":7.82,"ONEBC":3.85},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Scott McInnis","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6543,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3447,"CON":0.6543,"GRN":0.001},"point":{"NDP":42.03,"CON":47.8,"GRN":10.17,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":26.8,"median":41.72,"hi90":56.72},"CON":{"lo90":33.2,"median":47.92,"hi90":63.12},"GRN":{"lo90":1.49,"median":9.89,"hi90":19.73}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Scott McInnis: left or was removed from the Conservative caucus in September 2026 and returned on 2026-09-21; Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low."}]},{"id":"272","name":"Coquitlam-Burke Mountain","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Jodie Wickens","share":50.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":50.8,"CON":49.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":50.42,"CON":45.63,"ONEBC":3.95},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jodie Wickens","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5238,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4762,"CON":0.5238},"point":{"NDP":49.19,"CON":49.76,"GRN":1.05,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":34.57,"median":48.7,"hi90":62.52},"CON":{"lo90":35.64,"median":49.59,"hi90":63.68},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.66,"hi90":6.54}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"273","name":"Coquitlam-Maillardville","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Jennifer Blatherwick","share":51.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.8,"CON":39.6,"GRN":6.3,"IND":2.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":51.97,"CON":38.23,"GRN":6.49,"ONEBC":3.3},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jennifer Blatherwick","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7189,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7189,"CON":0.2806,"GRN":0.0005},"point":{"NDP":50.19,"CON":41.15,"GRN":8.66,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":35.83,"median":49.99,"hi90":64.12},"CON":{"lo90":27.66,"median":41.23,"hi90":55.6},"GRN":{"lo90":1.13,"median":8.36,"hi90":17.29}},"baseline_moves":["Ken Holowanky (independent 2024, 2.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"274","name":"Courtenay-Comox","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Brennan Day","share":38.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":38.8,"NDP":38.6,"GRN":20.7,"IND":1.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":38.72,"CON":37.18,"GRN":20.88,"ONEBC":3.22},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Brennan Day","party_at_dissolution":"IND","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5501,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.38,"CON":0.5501,"GRN":0.0699},"point":{"NDP":36.07,"CON":39.01,"GRN":24.91,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":21.33,"median":35.87,"hi90":50.78},"CON":{"lo90":24.48,"median":39.16,"hi90":54.61},"GRN":{"lo90":11.47,"median":24.56,"hi90":38.42}},"baseline_moves":["John Hedican (independent 2024, 1.5%) not running: transferred","Devin Howell (independent 2024, 0.4%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Brennan Day left the Conservative caucus on 2026-08-26 and returned after the writ; Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low."}]},{"id":"275","name":"Cowichan Valley","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Debra Toporowski","share":40.5},"shares_2024":{"NDP":40.5,"CON":37.6,"GRN":19.8,"IND":1.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":40.68,"CON":36.12,"GRN":19.97,"ONEBC":3.12,"OTH":0.1},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Debra Toporowski","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.4765,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4682,"CON":0.4765,"GRN":0.0552,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":36.76,"CON":36.56,"GRN":23.13,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.55},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":22.08,"median":36.53,"hi90":51.16},"CON":{"lo90":22.95,"median":36.77,"hi90":51.61},"GRN":{"lo90":10.28,"median":22.57,"hi90":35.91},"OTH":{"lo90":0.09,"median":3.19,"hi90":9.66}},"baseline_moves":["Eden Haythornthwaite (independent 2024, 1.2%) not running: transferred","Jon Coleman (independent 2024, 0.9%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"276","name":"Delta North","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Ravi Kahlon","share":52.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":52.7,"CON":40.2,"GRN":6.2,"OTH":0.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":52.3,"CON":37.42,"GRN":6.2,"ONEBC":3.23,"OTH":0.85},"running":["NDP","CON","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Ravi Kahlon","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.815,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.815,"CON":0.185},"point":{"NDP":56.33,"CON":42.51,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":1.16,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":42.6,"median":56.23,"hi90":69.72},"CON":{"lo90":29.05,"median":42.58,"hi90":56.31},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.11,"median":1.11,"hi90":2.35}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Ravi Kahlon (NDP) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate: loss of incumbent (The Writ docks a party 3-4 points when its incumbent leaves)."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"277","name":"Delta South","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Ian Paton","share":55.1},"shares_2024":{"CON":55.1,"NDP":44.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.54,"CON":51.03,"ONEBC":4.42},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Ian Paton","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.728,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.272,"CON":0.728},"point":{"NDP":42.78,"CON":51.55,"GRN":1.04,"ONEBC":4.63,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":28.45,"median":42.37,"hi90":56.4},"CON":{"lo90":37.15,"median":51.39,"hi90":64.76},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.64,"hi90":6.55},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.25,"hi90":10.69}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Ian Paton: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."},{"type":"notable_candidate","note":"Jim McMurtry (OneBC's first nominee; independent in Surrey-Serpentine River in 2024, PPC federally in 2025) runs here against incumbent Ian Paton (Conservative).","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate."}]},{"id":"278","name":"Esquimalt-Colwood","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Darlene Rotchford","share":51.5},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.5,"CON":29.2,"GRN":19.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":51.07,"CON":27.28,"GRN":19.31,"ONEBC":2.35},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Darlene Rotchford","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8696,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8696,"CON":0.0948,"GRN":0.0356},"point":{"NDP":48.22,"CON":28.55,"GRN":23.23,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.93,"median":48.12,"hi90":63.49},"CON":{"lo90":15.26,"median":28.72,"hi90":43.61},"GRN":{"lo90":10.04,"median":22.79,"hi90":36.81}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"279","name":"Fraser-Nicola","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Tony Luck","share":54.3},"shares_2024":{"CON":54.3,"NDP":36.4,"GRN":9.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":36.08,"CON":50.29,"GRN":9.27,"ONEBC":4.37},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Tony Luck","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8947,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1043,"CON":0.8947,"GRN":0.001},"point":{"NDP":34.2,"CON":53.98,"GRN":11.82,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":19.59,"median":33.89,"hi90":48.33},"CON":{"lo90":39.41,"median":54.16,"hi90":69.25},"GRN":{"lo90":2.58,"median":11.55,"hi90":21.96}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"280","name":"Juan de Fuca-Malahat","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Dana Lajeunesse","share":38.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":38.8,"CON":38.2,"GRN":23.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":38.46,"CON":35.46,"GRN":23.01,"ONEBC":3.07},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Dana Lajeunesse","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.4515,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4515,"CON":0.4145,"GRN":0.134},"point":{"NDP":34.2,"CON":33.16,"GRN":26.37,"ONEBC":2.99,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.28},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":19.61,"median":34.0,"hi90":48.46},"CON":{"lo90":19.26,"median":33.18,"hi90":47.87},"GRN":{"lo90":12.68,"median":25.89,"hi90":39.74},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.59,"hi90":8.57},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.93,"hi90":9.45}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"281","name":"Kamloops Centre","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Peter Milobar","share":48.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":48.8,"NDP":40.9,"GRN":10.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":40.57,"CON":45.26,"GRN":10.25,"ONEBC":3.92},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Peter Milobar","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6765,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3204,"CON":0.6765,"GRN":0.0029,"ONEBC":0.0001,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":36.88,"CON":43.36,"GRN":12.52,"ONEBC":3.9,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.34},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":22.16,"median":36.42,"hi90":50.67},"CON":{"lo90":28.75,"median":43.42,"hi90":58.19},"GRN":{"lo90":3.06,"median":12.2,"hi90":22.73},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.48,"hi90":10.25},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.88,"hi90":9.36}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Peter Milobar: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."}]},{"id":"282","name":"Kamloops-North Thompson","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Ward Stamer","share":59.7},"shares_2024":{"CON":59.7,"NDP":32.9,"GRN":7.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":32.61,"CON":55.23,"GRN":7.36,"ONEBC":4.8},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Ward Stamer","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8915,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1082,"CON":0.8915,"ONEBC":0.0003},"point":{"NDP":37.23,"CON":57.47,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":5.29,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":23.47,"median":36.89,"hi90":51.46},"CON":{"lo90":42.79,"median":57.62,"hi90":71.63},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.38,"median":4.99,"hi90":12.07}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"283","name":"Kelowna Centre","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Kristina Loewen","share":42.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":42.8,"NDP":42.7,"IND":10.1,"GRN":4.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":45.19,"CON":46.47,"GRN":4.31,"ONEBC":4.03},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Kristina Loewen","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5189,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.481,"CON":0.5189,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":47.52,"CON":48.08,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":4.4,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.58,"median":47.31,"hi90":61.75},"CON":{"lo90":33.61,"median":48.11,"hi90":62.77},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.19,"median":4.0,"hi90":10.97}},"baseline_moves":["Michael Humer (independent 2024, 10.1%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Michael Humer took 10.1% as an independent in 2024; not running. His vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"284","name":"Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Tara Armstrong","share":53.9},"shares_2024":{"CON":53.9,"NDP":35.2,"IND":6.5,"GRN":4.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":36.63,"CON":53.86,"GRN":4.83,"ONEBC":4.68},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Tara Armstrong","party_at_dissolution":"IND","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8882,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1117,"CON":0.8882,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":34.52,"CON":53.94,"GRN":6.69,"ONEBC":4.85,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":20.06,"median":34.22,"hi90":48.64},"CON":{"lo90":38.7,"median":53.89,"hi90":68.91},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":6.4,"hi90":15.43},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.49,"hi90":11.93}},"baseline_moves":["Kevin Kraft (independent 2024, 6.5%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Tara Armstrong (elected Conservative 2024; OneBC co-founder, then independent) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate."}]},{"id":"285","name":"Kelowna-Mission","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Gavin Dew","share":51.5},"shares_2024":{"CON":51.5,"NDP":32.6,"IND":11.0,"GRN":4.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":35.19,"CON":54.34,"GRN":5.76,"ONEBC":4.72},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Gavin Dew","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9098,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0897,"CON":0.9098,"GRN":0.0003,"ONEBC":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":33.02,"CON":54.32,"GRN":7.77,"ONEBC":4.88,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":18.61,"median":32.57,"hi90":47.07},"CON":{"lo90":39.29,"median":54.47,"hi90":69.11},"GRN":{"lo90":0.06,"median":7.44,"hi90":16.92},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.55,"hi90":11.85}},"baseline_moves":["Ashley Ramsay (independent 2024, 11.0%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Ashley Ramsay took 11.0% as an independent in 2024; not running. Her vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"286","name":"Kootenay Central","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Brittny Anderson","share":39.6},"shares_2024":{"NDP":39.6,"CON":31.7,"GRN":18.7,"IND":10.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":41.89,"CON":35.54,"GRN":19.49,"ONEBC":3.07},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Brittny Anderson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.582,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.582,"CON":0.3697,"GRN":0.0482,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":38.92,"CON":34.57,"GRN":23.39,"ONEBC":3.12,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":23.88,"median":38.68,"hi90":53.64},"CON":{"lo90":20.17,"median":34.56,"hi90":50.0},"GRN":{"lo90":10.56,"median":23.11,"hi90":35.57},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.71,"hi90":9.18}},"baseline_moves":["Corinne Mori (independent 2024, 10.0%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Corinne Mori took 10.0% as an independent in 2024; not running. Her vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"287","name":"Kootenay-Monashee","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Steve Morissette","share":52.0},"shares_2024":{"NDP":52.0,"CON":38.9,"GRN":9.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":51.62,"CON":36.15,"GRN":9.11,"ONEBC":3.12},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Steve Morissette","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.796,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.796,"CON":0.2016,"GRN":0.0023,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":49.27,"CON":35.83,"GRN":11.67,"ONEBC":3.22,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":33.64,"median":48.95,"hi90":63.73},"CON":{"lo90":21.17,"median":35.88,"hi90":50.73},"GRN":{"lo90":2.29,"median":11.41,"hi90":21.7},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.81,"hi90":9.61}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"288","name":"Kootenay-Rockies","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Pete Davis","share":42.7},"shares_2024":{"CON":42.7,"IND":30.4,"NDP":21.7,"GRN":5.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":29.47,"CON":58.02,"GRN":7.46,"ONEBC":5.05},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Pete Davis","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9661,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0329,"CON":0.9661,"GRN":0.001},"point":{"NDP":27.24,"CON":57.84,"GRN":9.72,"ONEBC":5.2,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":13.58,"median":26.98,"hi90":40.7},"CON":{"lo90":42.87,"median":57.87,"hi90":72.45},"GRN":{"lo90":1.11,"median":9.38,"hi90":19.54},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.88,"hi90":12.17}},"baseline_moves":["Tom Shypitka (independent 2024, 30.4%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Tom Shypitka (ex-BC United MLA) took 30.4% as an independent in 2024; not running. His vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"289","name":"Ladysmith-Oceanside","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Stephanie Higginson","share":41.5},"shares_2024":{"NDP":41.5,"CON":35.5,"IND":16.3,"GRN":6.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":45.39,"CON":42.94,"GRN":7.95,"ONEBC":3.72},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Stephanie Higginson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5799,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4187,"CON":0.5799,"GRN":0.0014},"point":{"NDP":43.52,"CON":46.16,"GRN":10.33,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":27.84,"median":43.32,"hi90":58.37},"CON":{"lo90":31.27,"median":46.41,"hi90":61.63},"GRN":{"lo90":0.9,"median":9.87,"hi90":21.05}},"baseline_moves":["Adam Walker (independent 2024, 16.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Adam Walker took 16.3% as an independent in 2024; not running. His vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"290","name":"Langford-Highlands","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Ravi Parmar","share":51.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.9,"CON":37.4,"GRN":10.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":51.45,"CON":34.81,"GRN":10.73,"ONEBC":3.0},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Ravi Parmar","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7742,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7742,"CON":0.223,"GRN":0.0027,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":47.64,"CON":35.77,"GRN":13.09,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.5},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.32,"median":47.35,"hi90":61.85},"CON":{"lo90":21.96,"median":35.73,"hi90":50.65},"GRN":{"lo90":2.71,"median":12.62,"hi90":23.97},"OTH":{"lo90":0.07,"median":3.14,"hi90":9.69}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"291","name":"Langley-Abbotsford","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Harman Bhangu","share":55.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":55.6,"NDP":33.7,"GRN":5.6,"IND":4.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":34.49,"CON":53.97,"GRN":5.87,"ONEBC":4.69,"OTH":0.99},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Harman Bhangu","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0994,"CON":0.9,"GRN":0.0006},"point":{"NDP":31.23,"CON":52.11,"GRN":7.63,"ONEBC":4.68,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":4.35},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":16.93,"median":31.01,"hi90":45.51},"CON":{"lo90":36.41,"median":51.94,"hi90":66.77},"GRN":{"lo90":0.3,"median":7.31,"hi90":16.07},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.34,"hi90":11.64},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.93,"hi90":10.86}},"baseline_moves":["Karen Long (independent 2024, 4.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"292","name":"Langley-Walnut Grove","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Misty Van Popta","share":49.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":49.6,"NDP":44.8,"GRN":5.1,"IND":0.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.53,"CON":46.29,"GRN":5.17,"ONEBC":4.01},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Misty Van Popta","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6676,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3322,"CON":0.6676,"GRN":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":42.87,"CON":50.03,"GRN":7.1,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":27.14,"median":42.78,"hi90":58.35},"CON":{"lo90":34.36,"median":50.06,"hi90":65.23},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":6.73,"hi90":15.77}},"baseline_moves":["Carlos Suarez Rubio (independent 2024, 0.5%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"293","name":"Langley-Willowbrook","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Jody Toor","share":48.2},"shares_2024":{"CON":48.2,"NDP":44.4,"GRN":7.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.05,"CON":44.74,"GRN":7.34,"ONEBC":3.88},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jody Toor","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5679,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4313,"CON":0.5679,"GRN":0.0008},"point":{"NDP":41.81,"CON":44.57,"GRN":9.62,"ONEBC":4.01,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":26.09,"median":41.53,"hi90":56.87},"CON":{"lo90":28.84,"median":44.5,"hi90":60.0},"GRN":{"lo90":1.33,"median":9.3,"hi90":19.15},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.75,"hi90":10.76}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"294","name":"Maple Ridge East","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Lawrence Mok","share":47.0},"shares_2024":{"CON":47.0,"NDP":46.6,"GRN":6.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":46.25,"CON":43.64,"GRN":6.34,"ONEBC":3.78},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Lawrence Mok","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5651,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4346,"CON":0.5651,"GRN":0.0003},"point":{"NDP":42.97,"CON":45.29,"GRN":8.18,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.56},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":27.23,"median":42.7,"hi90":57.66},"CON":{"lo90":29.95,"median":45.24,"hi90":60.49},"GRN":{"lo90":0.57,"median":7.84,"hi90":17.09},"OTH":{"lo90":0.09,"median":3.09,"hi90":9.71}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"295","name":"Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Lisa Beare","share":54.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":54.9,"CON":45.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":54.43,"CON":41.94,"ONEBC":3.62},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Lisa Beare","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7402,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7402,"CON":0.2598},"point":{"NDP":53.49,"CON":42.54,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":3.83,"CENTRE":0.14,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":38.51,"median":53.52,"hi90":68.12},"CON":{"lo90":27.38,"median":42.22,"hi90":57.25},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.48,"hi90":10.52},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.09,"hi90":1.0}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"296","name":"Mid Island-Pacific Rim","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Josie Osborne","share":48.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":48.7,"CON":39.5,"GRN":11.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":48.34,"CON":36.68,"GRN":11.81,"ONEBC":3.17},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Josie Osborne","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.6683,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.6683,"CON":0.3286,"GRN":0.0031},"point":{"NDP":46.14,"CON":39.1,"GRN":14.76,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":30.85,"median":45.96,"hi90":61.05},"CON":{"lo90":24.33,"median":39.28,"hi90":54.23},"GRN":{"lo90":3.62,"median":14.35,"hi90":26.44}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"297","name":"Nanaimo-Gabriola Island","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Sheila Malcolmson","share":52.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":52.7,"CON":34.7,"GRN":12.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":52.33,"CON":32.29,"GRN":12.6,"ONEBC":2.78},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Sheila Malcolmson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8328,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8328,"CON":0.1618,"GRN":0.0054},"point":{"NDP":50.02,"CON":34.31,"GRN":15.67,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":34.54,"median":49.79,"hi90":64.8},"CON":{"lo90":20.32,"median":34.5,"hi90":49.28},"GRN":{"lo90":4.3,"median":15.23,"hi90":27.52}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"298","name":"Nanaimo-Lantzville","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"George Anderson","share":51.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.7,"CON":39.5,"GRN":8.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":51.32,"CON":36.76,"GRN":8.74,"ONEBC":3.17},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"George Anderson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.736,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.736,"CON":0.2617,"GRN":0.0022,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":47.68,"CON":37.93,"GRN":10.88,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.52},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.66,"median":47.47,"hi90":62.1},"CON":{"lo90":23.67,"median":37.94,"hi90":52.39},"GRN":{"lo90":1.26,"median":10.41,"hi90":21.42},"OTH":{"lo90":0.08,"median":3.14,"hi90":9.44}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"299","name":"Nechako Lakes","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"John Rustad","share":67.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":67.4,"NDP":27.2,"GRN":5.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":26.96,"CON":62.28,"GRN":5.34,"ONEBC":5.42},"running":["NDP","CON","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"John Rustad","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9824,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0176,"CON":0.9824},"point":{"NDP":29.55,"CON":66.57,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.88},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":16.65,"median":29.32,"hi90":42.92},"CON":{"lo90":52.95,"median":66.7,"hi90":79.7},"OTH":{"lo90":0.41,"median":3.42,"hi90":9.93}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"John Rustad (former Conservative leader, MLA since 2005) is not running. Elections BC's web table lists an unaffiliated candidate (Clint Lambert) whom its CSV omits.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: loss of a long-time incumbent in a safe seat."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"300","name":"New Westminster-Coquitlam","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Jennifer Whiteside","share":59.1},"shares_2024":{"NDP":59.1,"CON":29.8,"GRN":11.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":58.68,"CON":27.9,"GRN":11.03,"ONEBC":2.4},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jennifer Whiteside","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9526,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9526,"CON":0.0455,"GRN":0.0019},"point":{"NDP":54.56,"CON":28.53,"GRN":13.44,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.47},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":40.13,"median":54.38,"hi90":67.73},"CON":{"lo90":16.54,"median":28.57,"hi90":41.7},"GRN":{"lo90":3.99,"median":13.11,"hi90":23.32},"OTH":{"lo90":0.08,"median":3.16,"hi90":9.0}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"301","name":"North Coast-Haida Gwaii","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Tamara Davidson","share":64.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":64.9,"CON":35.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":64.41,"CON":32.77,"ONEBC":2.82},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Tamara Davidson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9402,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9402,"CON":0.0598},"point":{"NDP":63.35,"CON":35.6,"GRN":1.05,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":47.84,"median":62.5,"hi90":76.53},"CON":{"lo90":21.43,"median":35.46,"hi90":50.22},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.72,"hi90":7.74}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"302","name":"North Island","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Anna Kindy","share":47.1},"shares_2024":{"CON":47.1,"NDP":44.9,"GRN":8.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.55,"CON":43.67,"GRN":8.0,"ONEBC":3.78},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Anna Kindy","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6119,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3862,"CON":0.6119,"GRN":0.0018,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":41.23,"CON":45.19,"GRN":10.04,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.55},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":26.25,"median":41.02,"hi90":55.44},"CON":{"lo90":30.73,"median":45.31,"hi90":60.05},"GRN":{"lo90":0.71,"median":9.6,"hi90":20.25},"OTH":{"lo90":0.11,"median":3.13,"hi90":9.42}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"303","name":"North Vancouver-Lonsdale","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Bowinn Ma","share":64.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":64.9,"CON":35.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":64.37,"CON":32.81,"ONEBC":2.82},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Bowinn Ma","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9487,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9487,"CON":0.0512,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":63.31,"CON":35.64,"GRN":1.05,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":48.82,"median":62.76,"hi90":76.17},"CON":{"lo90":22.24,"median":35.63,"hi90":49.2},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.69,"hi90":6.54}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"304","name":"North Vancouver-Seymour","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Susie Chant","share":52.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":52.8,"CON":35.8,"IND":5.8,"GRN":5.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":53.86,"CON":36.91,"GRN":6.04,"ONEBC":3.19},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Susie Chant","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8345,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8345,"CON":0.1652,"GRN":0.0002,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":51.77,"CON":36.78,"GRN":8.14,"ONEBC":3.31,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":37.53,"median":51.44,"hi90":65.5},"CON":{"lo90":23.44,"median":36.85,"hi90":50.4},"GRN":{"lo90":0.78,"median":7.92,"hi90":16.57},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.99,"hi90":8.78}},"baseline_moves":["Mitchell Baker (independent 2024, 5.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_moved","note":"Lynne Block (Conservative MLA for West Vancouver-Capilano) is the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: a sitting MLA as challenger."}]},{"id":"305","name":"Oak Bay-Gordon Head","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Diana Gibson","share":49.1},"shares_2024":{"NDP":49.1,"CON":28.9,"GRN":22.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":48.71,"CON":26.95,"GRN":22.01,"ONEBC":2.32},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Diana Gibson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8199,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8199,"CON":0.1099,"GRN":0.0702},"point":{"NDP":45.71,"CON":28.07,"GRN":26.22,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":30.37,"median":45.63,"hi90":60.84},"CON":{"lo90":14.88,"median":28.13,"hi90":42.95},"GRN":{"lo90":12.56,"median":25.77,"hi90":39.72}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"notable_candidate","note":"Andrew Weaver (Green leader 2015-2020 and MLA for Oak Bay-Gordon Head 2013-2020) runs for CentreBC.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"High: a former MLA with a personal following could take far more than CentreBC's provincial share."}]},{"id":"306","name":"Peace River North","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Jordan Kealy","share":74.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":74.4,"IND":20.1,"NDP":5.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":5.44,"CON":58.94,"ONEBC":5.14,"OTH":30.48},"running":["CON","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jordan Kealy","party_at_dissolution":"IND","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7672,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"CON":0.7672,"OTH":0.2328},"point":{"NDP":0.0,"CON":65.33,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":34.67},"share":{"CON":{"lo90":22.76,"median":65.23,"hi90":85.43},"OTH":{"lo90":14.57,"median":34.77,"hi90":77.24}},"baseline_moves":["Jordan Kealy (Conservative Party 2024, 74.4%) runs as an independent: 29.0 points carried forward (retention 0.39), held out of the swing","Dan Davies (independent 2024, 20.1%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"independent_incumbent","note":"Jordan Kealy (elected Conservative 2024 with 74.4%) left the caucus in March 2025 and runs as an independent. The NDP has no candidate (incomplete paperwork). Two-way race: Kealy v. Conservative Curtis Whitford.","v1":"v1.1: Kealy's 2024 share (74.4%, as a Conservative) is carried forward at the median retention of former party MLAs who ran as independents (0.39, so 29.0 points; log-normal spread, 90% range about 11-70 points), held out of the swing; the Conservative label keeps the rest. The NDP's share (no candidate) moves in proportion to the candidates who run.","why_it_may_matter":"High. An incumbent independent can win: Perry Trimper (NL 2021) kept more than his party share; most former party MLAs keep 15-50%."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"307","name":"Peace River South","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Larry Neufeld","share":69.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":69.8,"IND":24.6,"NDP":5.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":12.1,"CON":79.64,"ONEBC":6.95,"OTH":1.32},"running":["NDP","CON","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Larry Neufeld","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9993,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0007,"CON":0.9993},"point":{"NDP":11.2,"CON":83.73,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":5.08},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":2.34,"median":11.28,"hi90":22.54},"CON":{"lo90":71.42,"median":83.41,"hi90":93.45},"OTH":{"lo90":0.48,"median":4.74,"hi90":11.6}},"baseline_moves":["Mike Bernier (independent 2024, 24.6%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Mike Bernier (ex-BC United MLA, CentreBC leader July-Sept 2026) took 24.6% as an independent in 2024; not running. His vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"308","name":"Penticton-Summerland","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Amelia Boultbee","share":41.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":41.4,"NDP":40.2,"IND":9.7,"GRN":5.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":40.79,"CON":49.42,"GRN":5.5,"ONEBC":4.29},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Amelia Boultbee","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7511,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.2486,"CON":0.7511,"GRN":0.0002,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":38.65,"CON":49.42,"GRN":7.49,"ONEBC":4.44,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":23.96,"median":38.42,"hi90":53.67},"CON":{"lo90":33.98,"median":49.46,"hi90":64.58},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":7.2,"hi90":16.61},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.98,"hi90":11.2}},"baseline_moves":["Tracy St Claire (independent 2024) runs again as CON","Roger Harrington (independent 2024, 2.9%) not running: transferred","Anna Paddon (independent 2024, 0.5%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Amelia Boultbee (elected Conservative 2024) left the caucus in Oct 2025 and joined the NDP in July 2026; not running. OneBC runs Warren Hamm (former Conservative leadership candidate).","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: no incumbent; a OneBC candidate with a profile could split the Conservative vote."}]},{"id":"309","name":"Port Coquitlam","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Mike Farnworth","share":53.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":53.9,"CON":38.8,"GRN":6.4,"OTH":0.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":53.43,"CON":36.11,"GRN":6.4,"ONEBC":3.12,"OTH":0.95},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Mike Farnworth","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.803,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.803,"CON":0.1967,"GRN":0.0003},"point":{"NDP":49.88,"CON":37.38,"GRN":8.26,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":4.48},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":35.79,"median":49.68,"hi90":63.29},"CON":{"lo90":24.04,"median":37.45,"hi90":50.86},"GRN":{"lo90":0.89,"median":8.0,"hi90":16.48},"OTH":{"lo90":0.21,"median":4.19,"hi90":10.13}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"310","name":"Port Moody-Burquitlam","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Rick Glumac","share":52.1},"shares_2024":{"NDP":52.1,"CON":40.5,"GRN":7.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":51.63,"CON":37.67,"GRN":7.44,"ONEBC":3.25},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Rick Glumac","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7306,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7306,"CON":0.2684,"GRN":0.001},"point":{"NDP":49.77,"CON":40.48,"GRN":9.75,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":35.41,"median":49.68,"hi90":63.87},"CON":{"lo90":26.7,"median":40.56,"hi90":54.53},"GRN":{"lo90":1.68,"median":9.4,"hi90":18.45}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"311","name":"Powell River-Sunshine Coast","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Randene Neill","share":49.6},"shares_2024":{"NDP":49.6,"CON":35.7,"GRN":13.5,"IND":1.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":49.53,"CON":33.97,"GRN":13.57,"ONEBC":2.93},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Randene Neill","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7671,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7671,"CON":0.2279,"GRN":0.005},"point":{"NDP":47.18,"CON":36.05,"GRN":16.77,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.68,"median":47.08,"hi90":61.35},"CON":{"lo90":22.49,"median":36.16,"hi90":50.21},"GRN":{"lo90":6.4,"median":16.58,"hi90":28.01}},"baseline_moves":["Greg Reid (independent 2024, 1.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"312","name":"Prince George-Mackenzie","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Kiel Giddens","share":60.9},"shares_2024":{"CON":60.9,"NDP":28.2,"GRN":8.5,"IND":2.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":28.6,"CON":57.71,"GRN":8.67,"ONEBC":5.02},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Kiel Giddens","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9781,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0211,"CON":0.9781,"GRN":0.0008},"point":{"NDP":26.87,"CON":62.02,"GRN":11.11,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":13.38,"median":26.54,"hi90":40.69},"CON":{"lo90":47.03,"median":62.21,"hi90":76.48},"GRN":{"lo90":2.15,"median":10.78,"hi90":21.06}},"baseline_moves":["Rachael Weber (independent 2024, 2.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"313","name":"Prince George-North Cariboo","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Sheldon Clare","share":56.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":56.8,"IND":21.8,"NDP":17.0,"GRN":4.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":22.57,"CON":65.75,"GRN":5.95,"ONEBC":5.73},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Sheldon Clare","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9956,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0043,"CON":0.9956,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":21.05,"CON":70.98,"GRN":7.97,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":8.29,"median":20.6,"hi90":34.1},"CON":{"lo90":56.8,"median":71.12,"hi90":84.38},"GRN":{"lo90":0.18,"median":7.79,"hi90":17.16}},"baseline_moves":["Coralee Oakes (independent 2024, 21.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Coralee Oakes (ex-BC United MLA) took 21.8% as an independent in 2024; not running. Her vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"314","name":"Prince George-Valemount","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Rosalyn Bird","share":55.2},"shares_2024":{"CON":55.2,"NDP":34.9,"GRN":9.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":34.63,"CON":51.07,"GRN":9.87,"ONEBC":4.43},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Rosalyn Bird","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.882,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1159,"CON":0.882,"GRN":0.0019,"ONEBC":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":32.26,"CON":50.68,"GRN":12.5,"ONEBC":4.56,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":17.89,"median":31.92,"hi90":46.08},"CON":{"lo90":35.72,"median":50.63,"hi90":65.72},"GRN":{"lo90":2.88,"median":12.27,"hi90":22.84},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.2,"hi90":11.42}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Rosalyn Bird: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."}]},{"id":"315","name":"Richmond-Bridgeport","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Teresa Wat","share":58.2},"shares_2024":{"CON":58.2,"NDP":34.8,"GRN":3.2,"IND":3.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":35.55,"CON":56.35,"GRN":3.21,"ONEBC":4.89},"running":["NDP","CON"],"incumbent":{"name":"Teresa Wat","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.934,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.066,"CON":0.934},"point":{"NDP":37.61,"CON":62.39,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":24.58,"median":37.57,"hi90":51.31},"CON":{"lo90":48.69,"median":62.43,"hi90":75.42}},"baseline_moves":["Glynnis Hoi Sum Chan (independent 2024, 3.0%) not running: transferred","Charlie Smith (independent 2024, 0.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Teresa Wat: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"316","name":"Richmond Centre","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Hon Chan","share":52.0},"shares_2024":{"CON":52.0,"NDP":36.8,"IND":3.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":39.24,"CON":54.65,"GRN":0.8,"ONEBC":4.74,"OTH":0.56},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Hon Chan","party_at_dissolution":"IND","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9129,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0871,"CON":0.9129},"point":{"NDP":36.57,"CON":57.31,"GRN":1.92,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":4.19},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":23.35,"median":36.32,"hi90":49.3},"CON":{"lo90":43.24,"median":57.16,"hi90":70.55},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.51,"hi90":7.79},"OTH":{"lo90":0.24,"median":3.9,"hi90":9.91}},"baseline_moves":["Wendy Yuan (independent 2024, 6.3%) not running: transferred","Dickens Cheung (independent 2024, 3.4%) not running: transferred","Sunny Ho (independent 2024, 1.5%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Hon Chan (elected Conservative 2024, removed from caucus March 2026) is not on the ballot.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: loss of incumbent."}]},{"id":"317","name":"Richmond-Queensborough","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Steve Kooner","share":50.9},"shares_2024":{"CON":50.9,"NDP":44.1,"IND":1.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":45.04,"CON":50.23,"GRN":0.37,"ONEBC":4.35},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Steve Kooner","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7723,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.2276,"CON":0.7723,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":43.75,"CON":54.77,"GRN":1.49,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":29.71,"median":43.5,"hi90":57.14},"CON":{"lo90":40.52,"median":54.58,"hi90":68.28},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.05,"hi90":7.03}},"baseline_moves":["Cindy Wu (independent 2024, 3.7%) not running: transferred","Errol E. Povah (independent 2024, 1.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"318","name":"Richmond-Steveston","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Kelly Greene","share":44.3},"shares_2024":{"NDP":44.3,"CON":42.2,"IND":10.1,"GRN":3.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":46.59,"CON":45.49,"GRN":3.44,"ONEBC":3.94,"OTH":0.54},"running":["NDP","CON","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Kelly Greene","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.559,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.441,"CON":0.559},"point":{"NDP":46.55,"CON":48.52,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.66,"OTH":4.28},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.98,"median":46.43,"hi90":59.71},"CON":{"lo90":34.94,"median":48.55,"hi90":61.92},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.62,"hi90":1.59},"OTH":{"lo90":0.4,"median":3.98,"hi90":9.93}},"baseline_moves":["Jackie Lee (independent 2024, 10.1%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Kelly Greene (NDP) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate: loss of incumbent (The Writ docks a party 3-4 points when its incumbent leaves)."},{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Jackie Lee took 10.1% as an independent in 2024; not running. Her vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"319","name":"Saanich North and the Islands","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"GRN","name":"Rob Botterell","share":36.2},"shares_2024":{"GRN":36.2,"NDP":32.2,"CON":29.8,"IND":1.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":32.4,"CON":28.81,"GRN":36.29,"ONEBC":2.49},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Rob Botterell","party_at_dissolution":"GRN","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"GRN","prob":0.6653,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1562,"CON":0.1785,"GRN":0.6653},"point":{"NDP":29.14,"CON":29.33,"GRN":41.53,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":14.68,"median":28.85,"hi90":44.18},"CON":{"lo90":15.75,"median":29.62,"hi90":45.18},"GRN":{"lo90":25.29,"median":41.0,"hi90":56.12}},"baseline_moves":["Amy Haysom (independent 2024, 1.9%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"green_seat","note":"One of the Greens' two 2024 seats. Rob Botterell (Green MLA) is not running; Green leader Emily Lowan is the candidate. CentreBC also runs.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"High. The Green hold depends on the candidate and on NDP-Green tactical voting, neither of which is modelled; the riding is close to a three-way contest."}]},{"id":"320","name":"Saanich South","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Lana Popham","share":49.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":49.8,"CON":32.4,"GRN":17.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":49.36,"CON":30.24,"GRN":17.79,"ONEBC":2.61},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Lana Popham","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8109,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8109,"CON":0.1652,"GRN":0.0239},"point":{"NDP":46.67,"CON":31.8,"GRN":21.53,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":31.35,"median":46.56,"hi90":61.65},"CON":{"lo90":18.01,"median":32.03,"hi90":46.94},"GRN":{"lo90":8.78,"median":21.08,"hi90":34.22}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Lana Popham (NDP) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate: loss of incumbent (The Writ docks a party 3-4 points when its incumbent leaves)."}]},{"id":"321","name":"Salmon Arm-Shuswap","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"David L. Williams","share":52.1},"shares_2024":{"CON":52.1,"NDP":30.4,"IND":9.2,"GRN":7.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":32.88,"CON":54.53,"GRN":7.86,"ONEBC":4.74},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"David Williams","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9281,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.071,"CON":0.9281,"GRN":0.0007,"ONEBC":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":30.61,"CON":54.32,"GRN":10.19,"ONEBC":4.88,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":16.03,"median":30.24,"hi90":44.32},"CON":{"lo90":39.19,"median":54.42,"hi90":69.54},"GRN":{"lo90":1.51,"median":9.88,"hi90":19.92},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.52,"hi90":11.98}},"baseline_moves":["Greg McCune (independent 2024, 9.2%) not running: transferred","Sherry Roy (independent 2024, 1.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"322","name":"Skeena","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Claire Rattée","share":51.2},"shares_2024":{"CON":51.2,"NDP":44.4,"GRN":3.3,"OTH":1.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.06,"CON":47.47,"GRN":3.33,"ONEBC":4.11,"OTH":1.03},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Claire Rattée","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6379,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3616,"CON":0.6379,"GRN":0.0004,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":42.52,"CON":48.14,"GRN":5.01,"ONEBC":4.33,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":27.1,"median":42.32,"hi90":56.88},"CON":{"lo90":32.91,"median":48.05,"hi90":63.2},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.67,"hi90":13.26},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.94,"hi90":11.36}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Claire Rattée: left or was removed from the Conservative caucus in September 2026 and returned on 2026-09-21; Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low."}]},{"id":"323","name":"Surrey City Centre","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Amna Shah","share":46.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":46.7,"CON":45.1,"GRN":6.1,"IND":1.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":46.62,"CON":42.59,"GRN":6.09,"ONEBC":3.69,"OTH":1.02},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Amna Shah","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.629,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.629,"CON":0.371},"point":{"NDP":50.04,"CON":44.73,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":4.12,"CENTRE":1.11,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":35.79,"median":49.89,"hi90":63.56},"CON":{"lo90":31.12,"median":44.74,"hi90":58.84},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.25,"median":3.83,"hi90":9.98},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.12,"median":1.06,"hi90":2.25}},"baseline_moves":["Saeed Naguib (independent 2024, 1.1%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"324","name":"Surrey-Cloverdale","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Elenore Sturko","share":48.3},"shares_2024":{"CON":48.3,"NDP":45.6,"GRN":5.4,"OTH":0.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":45.17,"CON":44.82,"GRN":5.41,"ONEBC":3.88,"OTH":0.72},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Elenore Sturko","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":true,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5483,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4513,"CON":0.5483,"GRN":0.0003,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":43.37,"CON":45.13,"GRN":7.44,"ONEBC":4.06,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":28.97,"median":43.28,"hi90":57.3},"CON":{"lo90":31.08,"median":45.14,"hi90":59.43},"GRN":{"lo90":0.39,"median":7.13,"hi90":15.57},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.71,"hi90":9.95}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_moved","note":"Elenore Sturko (MLA, elected Conservative 2024) is running in Surrey South instead; open seat.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: loss of incumbent."}]},{"id":"325","name":"Surrey-Fleetwood","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Jagrup Brar","share":48.6},"shares_2024":{"NDP":48.6,"CON":44.9,"GRN":6.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":48.2,"CON":41.72,"GRN":6.47,"ONEBC":3.61},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jagrup Brar","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.6152,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.6152,"CON":0.3844,"GRN":0.0004},"point":{"NDP":46.03,"CON":41.6,"GRN":8.62,"ONEBC":3.74,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":31.53,"median":45.92,"hi90":59.74},"CON":{"lo90":27.69,"median":41.62,"hi90":55.64},"GRN":{"lo90":1.04,"median":8.28,"hi90":17.39},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.42,"hi90":9.56}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"326","name":"Surrey-Guildford","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Garry Begg","share":46.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":46.9,"CON":46.8,"GRN":4.3,"IND":1.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":47.01,"CON":44.57,"GRN":4.46,"ONEBC":3.86,"OTH":0.1},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Garry Begg","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5772,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4224,"CON":0.5772,"GRN":0.0004},"point":{"NDP":43.84,"CON":46.42,"GRN":6.07,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.67},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":29.55,"median":43.58,"hi90":57.42},"CON":{"lo90":32.68,"median":46.43,"hi90":60.04},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":5.8,"hi90":13.28},"OTH":{"lo90":0.17,"median":3.33,"hi90":9.16}},"baseline_moves":["Kabir Qurban (independent 2024, 1.9%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"327","name":"Surrey-Newton","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Jessie Sunner","share":51.2},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.2,"CON":43.0,"OTH":2.4,"IND":2.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":51.72,"CON":42.25,"ONEBC":3.65,"OTH":2.39},"running":["NDP","CON","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jessie Sunner","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.6331,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.6331,"CON":0.3669},"point":{"NDP":52.43,"CON":47.42,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.15,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":38.36,"median":52.54,"hi90":66.6},"CON":{"lo90":33.05,"median":47.24,"hi90":61.47},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.09,"hi90":0.92}},"baseline_moves":["Japreet Lehal (independent 2024, 2.2%) not running: transferred","Joginder Singh Randhawa (independent 2024, 1.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"328","name":"Surrey North","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Mandeep Dhaliwal","share":50.7},"shares_2024":{"CON":50.7,"NDP":43.3,"GRN":4.2,"OTH":1.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":43.11,"CON":47.44,"GRN":4.27,"ONEBC":4.11,"OTH":1.07},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Mandeep Dhaliwal","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.675,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3248,"CON":0.675,"GRN":0.0001,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":39.67,"CON":45.91,"GRN":5.85,"ONEBC":4.13,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":4.45},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":26.02,"median":39.42,"hi90":52.9},"CON":{"lo90":32.09,"median":45.96,"hi90":59.26},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":5.49,"hi90":13.06},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.84,"hi90":9.78},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.19,"hi90":10.46}},"baseline_moves":["Hobby Nijjar (independent 2024, 0.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"329","name":"Surrey-Panorama","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Bryan Tepper","share":49.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":49.6,"NDP":48.1,"OTH":2.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":47.7,"CON":46.03,"ONEBC":3.98,"OTH":2.28},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Bryan Tepper","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6107,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3893,"CON":0.6107},"point":{"NDP":47.54,"CON":51.39,"GRN":1.07,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.67,"median":47.07,"hi90":60.99},"CON":{"lo90":37.13,"median":51.29,"hi90":65.23},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.69,"hi90":6.83}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"330","name":"Surrey-Serpentine River","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Linda Hepner","share":49.7},"shares_2024":{"CON":49.7,"NDP":47.5,"IND":2.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":47.83,"CON":47.87,"ONEBC":4.15,"OTH":0.15},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Linda Hepner","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5484,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4515,"CON":0.5484,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":45.16,"CON":46.9,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":4.22,"CENTRE":0.13,"OTH":3.58},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":31.12,"median":45.02,"hi90":58.6},"CON":{"lo90":32.84,"median":46.76,"hi90":60.43},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.04,"median":3.89,"hi90":10.1},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.08,"hi90":0.8},"OTH":{"lo90":0.02,"median":3.33,"hi90":9.18}},"baseline_moves":["Jim McMurtry (independent 2024, 2.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Linda Hepner (elected Conservative 2024) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"331","name":"Surrey South","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Brent Chapman","share":58.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":58.8,"NDP":41.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":40.81,"CON":54.47,"ONEBC":4.73},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Brent Chapman","party_at_dissolution":"ONEBC","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.895,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1049,"CON":0.895,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":38.15,"CON":57.21,"GRN":1.01,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.63},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":24.36,"median":37.62,"hi90":51.1},"CON":{"lo90":43.13,"median":57.14,"hi90":70.2},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.66,"hi90":6.3},"OTH":{"lo90":0.19,"median":3.3,"hi90":9.18}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"new_party_leader","note":"Elenore Sturko (CentreBC leader; MLA for Surrey-Cloverdale, elected Conservative 2024) runs here. Brent Chapman (elected Conservative 2024 with 58.8%, crossed to OneBC on 2026-09-22) is not on the ballot.","v1":"Not adjusted in the default; seeded in the sensitivity run.","why_it_may_matter":"High. A party leader and sitting MLA could take far more than CentreBC's provincial share. The 'seeded' sensitivity adds 7.5 points."}]},{"id":"332","name":"Surrey-White Rock","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Trevor Halford","share":52.3},"shares_2024":{"CON":52.3,"NDP":45.3,"OTH":2.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.9,"CON":48.51,"ONEBC":4.2,"OTH":2.38},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Trevor Halford","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6623,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3374,"CON":0.6623,"ONEBC":0.0003},"point":{"NDP":41.67,"CON":47.27,"GRN":1.01,"ONEBC":4.25,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":5.81},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":27.38,"median":41.22,"hi90":54.8},"CON":{"lo90":33.33,"median":47.13,"hi90":60.56},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.65,"hi90":6.23},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.93,"hi90":10.0},"OTH":{"lo90":0.28,"median":5.58,"hi90":11.99}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Trevor Halford: left or was removed from the Conservative caucus in September 2026 and returned on 2026-09-21; Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low."}]},{"id":"333","name":"Vancouver-Fraserview","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"George Chow","share":57.2},"shares_2024":{"NDP":57.2,"CON":36.6,"GRN":6.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":56.72,"CON":34.13,"GRN":6.2,"ONEBC":2.94},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"George Chow","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8789,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8789,"CON":0.1207,"GRN":0.0004},"point":{"NDP":54.97,"CON":36.7,"GRN":8.33,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":40.53,"median":54.89,"hi90":68.42},"CON":{"lo90":23.34,"median":36.71,"hi90":50.78},"GRN":{"lo90":0.88,"median":8.06,"hi90":16.65}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"George Chow (NDP) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate: loss of incumbent (The Writ docks a party 3-4 points when its incumbent leaves)."}]},{"id":"334","name":"Vancouver-Hastings","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Niki Sharma","share":64.1},"shares_2024":{"NDP":64.1,"CON":24.3,"GRN":10.9,"IND":0.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":63.86,"CON":23.21,"GRN":10.9,"ONEBC":1.99,"OTH":0.04},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Niki Sharma","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9829,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9829,"CON":0.015,"GRN":0.0021},"point":{"NDP":59.56,"CON":23.63,"GRN":13.32,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.49},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":45.37,"median":59.42,"hi90":72.24},"CON":{"lo90":12.32,"median":23.68,"hi90":36.37},"GRN":{"lo90":4.0,"median":13.02,"hi90":23.07},"OTH":{"lo90":0.06,"median":3.16,"hi90":8.97}},"baseline_moves":["Zsolt Kiss (independent 2024, 0.7%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"335","name":"Vancouver-Kensington","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Mable Elmore","share":60.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":60.9,"CON":31.5,"GRN":7.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":60.43,"CON":29.45,"GRN":7.58,"ONEBC":2.53},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Mable Elmore","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9481,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9481,"CON":0.0513,"GRN":0.0006},"point":{"NDP":58.55,"CON":31.51,"GRN":9.94,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":44.28,"median":58.36,"hi90":71.87},"CON":{"lo90":18.97,"median":31.53,"hi90":45.6},"GRN":{"lo90":1.87,"median":9.64,"hi90":18.79}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"336","name":"Vancouver-Langara","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Sunita Dhir","share":48.4},"shares_2024":{"NDP":48.4,"CON":46.0,"GRN":5.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":48.03,"CON":42.76,"GRN":5.52,"ONEBC":3.7},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Sunita Dhir","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5033,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5033,"CON":0.4965,"GRN":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":46.33,"CON":46.15,"GRN":7.52,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":31.99,"median":46.33,"hi90":60.28},"CON":{"lo90":32.17,"median":46.15,"hi90":60.53},"GRN":{"lo90":0.49,"median":7.28,"hi90":15.67}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"337","name":"Vancouver-Little Mountain","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Christine Boyle","share":62.1},"shares_2024":{"NDP":62.1,"CON":30.6,"GRN":7.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":61.64,"CON":28.62,"GRN":7.28,"ONEBC":2.46},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Christine Boyle","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9611,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9611,"CON":0.0384,"GRN":0.0005},"point":{"NDP":59.79,"CON":30.62,"GRN":9.59,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":45.59,"median":59.71,"hi90":73.05},"CON":{"lo90":18.07,"median":30.68,"hi90":44.23},"GRN":{"lo90":1.75,"median":9.28,"hi90":18.37}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"338","name":"Vancouver-Point Grey","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"David Eby","share":56.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":56.8,"CON":34.5,"GRN":8.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":56.32,"CON":32.19,"GRN":8.72,"ONEBC":2.77},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"David Eby","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9022,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9022,"CON":0.0974,"GRN":0.0004},"point":{"NDP":54.33,"CON":34.43,"GRN":11.24,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":39.86,"median":54.29,"hi90":68.49},"CON":{"lo90":21.29,"median":34.53,"hi90":48.2},"GRN":{"lo90":2.43,"median":10.95,"hi90":20.69}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"leader_seat","note":"NDP leader David Eby.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low (safe seats)."}]},{"id":"339","name":"Vancouver-Quilchena","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Dallas Brodie","share":51.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":51.6,"NDP":38.9,"GRN":7.8,"IND":1.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":39.03,"CON":48.83,"GRN":7.91,"ONEBC":4.24},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Dallas Brodie","party_at_dissolution":"ONEBC","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7883,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.2109,"CON":0.7883,"GRN":0.0008},"point":{"NDP":36.74,"CON":48.62,"GRN":10.26,"ONEBC":4.37,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":22.82,"median":36.54,"hi90":50.42},"CON":{"lo90":34.13,"median":48.66,"hi90":63.05},"GRN":{"lo90":2.1,"median":9.92,"hi90":19.3},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.04,"hi90":10.52}},"baseline_moves":["Caroline Ying-Mei Wang (independent 2024, 1.7%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"new_party_leader","note":"Dallas Brodie (OneBC interim leader; elected Conservative 2024 with 51.6%) runs again for OneBC against a new Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in the default; seeded in the sensitivity run.","why_it_may_matter":"High. Splits the right-of-centre vote in a seat the Conservatives won narrowly in 2024; a sitting MLA's personal vote is not in the model. The 'seeded' sensitivity adds 15 points."}]},{"id":"340","name":"Vancouver-Renfrew","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Adrian Dix","share":63.2},"shares_2024":{"NDP":63.2,"CON":30.7,"GRN":6.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":62.73,"CON":28.68,"GRN":6.12,"ONEBC":2.46},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Adrian Dix","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9625,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9625,"CON":0.0371,"GRN":0.0004},"point":{"NDP":61.01,"CON":30.75,"GRN":8.25,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":46.45,"median":60.84,"hi90":74.29},"CON":{"lo90":17.69,"median":30.88,"hi90":44.51},"GRN":{"lo90":0.79,"median":8.02,"hi90":16.81}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"341","name":"Vancouver-South Granville","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Brenda Bailey","share":64.3},"shares_2024":{"NDP":64.3,"CON":25.0,"GRN":10.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":63.84,"CON":23.42,"GRN":10.73,"ONEBC":2.0},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Brenda Bailey","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9856,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9856,"CON":0.0127,"GRN":0.0016,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":61.42,"CON":22.92,"GRN":13.58,"ONEBC":2.07,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":46.57,"median":61.33,"hi90":74.89},"CON":{"lo90":10.88,"median":22.81,"hi90":36.07},"GRN":{"lo90":4.1,"median":13.36,"hi90":23.62},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.69,"hi90":6.81}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Brenda Bailey (NDP) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate: loss of incumbent (The Writ docks a party 3-4 points when its incumbent leaves)."}]},{"id":"342","name":"Vancouver-Strathcona","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Joan Phillip","share":68.2},"shares_2024":{"NDP":68.2,"CON":17.1,"GRN":13.1,"OTH":1.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":67.73,"CON":16.17,"GRN":13.05,"ONEBC":1.37,"OTH":1.67},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Vacant","party_at_dissolution":null,"not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":"vacant"},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9934,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9934,"CON":0.0044,"GRN":0.0022},"point":{"NDP":63.05,"CON":16.17,"GRN":15.7,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":5.08},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":48.61,"median":62.88,"hi90":75.64},"CON":{"lo90":6.21,"median":16.18,"hi90":27.84},"GRN":{"lo90":5.82,"median":15.41,"hi90":26.34},"OTH":{"lo90":0.21,"median":4.9,"hi90":11.03}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"vacant","note":"Vacant: Joan Phillip (NDP) died 2026-08-28; no by-election. NDP candidate Amanda Burrows.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low (safe NDP seat)."}]},{"id":"343","name":"Vancouver-West End","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Spencer Chandra Herbert","share":63.0},"shares_2024":{"NDP":63.0,"CON":27.2,"GRN":9.1,"IND":0.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":62.73,"CON":25.92,"GRN":9.13,"ONEBC":2.22},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Spencer Chandra Herbert","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9726,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9726,"CON":0.0259,"GRN":0.0015},"point":{"NDP":60.69,"CON":27.58,"GRN":11.73,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":46.21,"median":60.53,"hi90":74.04},"CON":{"lo90":15.55,"median":27.67,"hi90":41.07},"GRN":{"lo90":3.01,"median":11.44,"hi90":21.04}},"baseline_moves":["Carl Turnbull (independent 2024, 0.7%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"344","name":"Vancouver-Yaletown","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Terry Yung","share":49.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":49.8,"CON":43.4,"GRN":6.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":49.35,"CON":40.29,"GRN":6.89,"ONEBC":3.48},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Terry Yung","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.6051,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.6051,"CON":0.3946,"GRN":0.0003},"point":{"NDP":47.54,"CON":43.36,"GRN":9.11,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":33.47,"median":47.37,"hi90":61.14},"CON":{"lo90":29.76,"median":43.49,"hi90":57.51},"GRN":{"lo90":1.45,"median":8.81,"hi90":17.71}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"345","name":"Vernon-Lumby","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Harwinder Sandhu","share":42.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":42.7,"CON":41.0,"IND":15.4,"OTH":1.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":42.32,"CON":52.2,"ONEBC":4.53,"OTH":0.95},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Harwinder Sandhu","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7766,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.223,"CON":0.7766,"GRN":0.0002,"ONEBC":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":40.93,"CON":53.24,"GRN":1.05,"ONEBC":4.78,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":25.22,"median":40.18,"hi90":54.94},"CON":{"lo90":37.98,"median":52.98,"hi90":68.03},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.71,"hi90":7.7},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.38,"hi90":11.63}},"baseline_moves":["Kevin Acton (independent 2024) runs again as CON"],"notes":[{"type":"returning_candidate","note":"Kevin Acton took 15.4% as an independent in 2024 and is the 2026 Conservative candidate (assumed the same person); v1 moves his 2024 vote to the Conservatives.","v1":"His 2024 votes are assigned to the Conservatives (rule: a returning candidate keeps their vote).","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: if his 2024 voters do not follow him, the Conservative share is overstated."}]},{"id":"346","name":"Victoria-Beacon Hill","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Grace Lore","share":47.4},"shares_2024":{"NDP":47.4,"GRN":33.5,"CON":19.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":47.01,"CON":17.96,"GRN":33.5,"ONEBC":1.54},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Grace Lore","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.6104,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.6104,"CON":0.0173,"GRN":0.3723},"point":{"NDP":43.2,"CON":18.11,"GRN":38.69,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":27.49,"median":43.03,"hi90":59.04},"CON":{"lo90":6.55,"median":18.37,"hi90":32.26},"GRN":{"lo90":22.39,"median":38.34,"hi90":53.21}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"notable_candidate","note":"The Conservatives dropped their candidate, Joachim Agou, on 2026-10-08 over social-media posts; he stays on the ballot as the Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low (safe NDP seat), but the Conservative share is likely overstated."}]},{"id":"347","name":"Victoria-Swan Lake","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Nina Krieger","share":56.0},"shares_2024":{"NDP":56.0,"GRN":23.2,"CON":20.2,"OTH":0.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":55.63,"CON":18.98,"GRN":23.16,"ONEBC":1.62,"OTH":0.61},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Nina Krieger","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.929,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.929,"CON":0.0157,"GRN":0.0553},"point":{"NDP":52.67,"CON":19.63,"GRN":27.7,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":36.95,"median":52.4,"hi90":67.77},"CON":{"lo90":7.66,"median":19.94,"hi90":33.57},"GRN":{"lo90":13.14,"median":27.21,"hi90":41.5}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"348","name":"West Kelowna-Peachland","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Macklin McCall","share":50.9},"shares_2024":{"CON":50.9,"NDP":27.9,"IND":21.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":33.2,"CON":59.99,"GRN":1.6,"ONEBC":5.21},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Macklin McCall","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.972,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0279,"CON":0.972,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":31.8,"CON":65.28,"GRN":2.92,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":17.92,"median":31.39,"hi90":45.65},"CON":{"lo90":50.74,"median":65.17,"hi90":79.05},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.5,"hi90":10.03}},"baseline_moves":["Stephen Johnston (independent 2024, 21.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Stephen Johnston took 21.2% as an independent in 2024; not running. His vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"349","name":"West Vancouver-Capilano","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Lynne Block","share":46.7},"shares_2024":{"CON":46.7,"NDP":27.1,"IND":20.6,"GRN":5.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":32.28,"CON":55.77,"GRN":7.11,"ONEBC":4.85},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Lynne Block","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":true,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.952,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0474,"CON":0.952,"GRN":0.0005,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":30.05,"CON":55.62,"GRN":9.33,"ONEBC":5.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":16.85,"median":29.87,"hi90":43.08},"CON":{"lo90":41.47,"median":55.72,"hi90":69.68},"GRN":{"lo90":1.45,"median":9.03,"hi90":18.31},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.64,"hi90":11.4}},"baseline_moves":["Karin Kirkpatrick (independent 2024, 20.6%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_moved","note":"Lynne Block (elected Conservative 2024) is running in North Vancouver-Seymour instead; open seat. In 2024 Karin Kirkpatrick (ex-BC United, later CentreBC founder) took 20.6% here as an independent; that vote is transferred.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: open seat; where Kirkpatrick's 2024 vote goes is an assumption."}]},{"id":"350","name":"West Vancouver-Sea to Sky","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"GRN","name":"Jeremy Valeriote","share":38.1},"shares_2024":{"GRN":38.1,"CON":35.6,"NDP":26.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":26.08,"CON":32.98,"GRN":38.08,"ONEBC":2.86},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jeremy Valeriote","party_at_dissolution":"GRN","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"GRN","prob":0.7144,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0414,"CON":0.2442,"GRN":0.7144},"point":{"NDP":23.1,"CON":33.56,"GRN":43.35,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":10.94,"median":22.91,"hi90":36.4},"CON":{"lo90":20.28,"median":33.8,"hi90":48.29},"GRN":{"lo90":27.51,"median":43.07,"hi90":56.94}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"green_seat","note":"The Greens' other 2024 seat. Jeremy Valeriote (Green MLA, interim leader 2025) runs again; CentreBC runs Dan Wood.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"High: Green incumbency is not modelled, so v1 probably understates the Green."}]}],"changes":{"from_file":"2026-03-17_angus-reid.json","average":{"NDP":1.54,"CON":-0.42,"GRN":-0.33,"ONEBC":-1.88,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":1.11},"seat_median":{"NDP":4.0,"CON":-4.0,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"p_majority":{"NDP":0.1432,"CON":-0.1487,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"p_minority":0.0055,"leader_changes":["280","336","344"]},"average_series":{"NDP":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-21",null],["2024-10-28",null],["2024-11-04",null],["2024-11-11",null],["2024-11-18",null],["2024-11-25",null],["2024-12-02",null],["2024-12-09",null],["2024-12-16",null],["2024-12-23",null],["2024-12-30",null],["2025-01-06",null],["2025-01-13",null],["2025-01-20",null],["2025-01-27",45.51],["2025-02-03",45.72],["2025-02-10",45.86],["2025-02-17",45.9],["2025-02-24",45.84],["2025-03-03",45.7],["2025-03-10",45.49],["2025-03-17",45.26],["2025-03-24",45.04],["2025-03-31",44.89],["2025-04-07",44.84],["2025-04-14",44.84],["2025-04-21",44.83],["2025-04-28",44.75],["2025-05-05",44.63],["2025-05-12",44.44],["2025-05-19",44.19],["2025-05-26",43.88],["2025-06-02",43.54],["2025-06-09",43.18],["2025-06-16",42.83],["2025-06-23",42.51],["2025-06-30",42.22],["2025-07-07",41.97],["2025-07-14",41.78],["2025-07-21",41.67],["2025-07-28",41.71],["2025-08-04",41.93],["2025-08-11",42.24],["2025-08-18",42.54],["2025-08-25",42.85],["2025-09-01",43.2],["2025-09-08",43.56],["2025-09-15",43.88],["2025-09-22",44.12],["2025-09-29",44.27],["2025-10-06",44.31],["2025-10-13",44.25],["2025-10-20",44.08],["2025-10-27",43.8],["2025-11-03",43.43],["2025-11-10",43.05],["2025-11-17",42.75],["2025-11-24",42.56],["2025-12-01",42.45],["2025-12-08",42.4],["2025-12-15",42.37],["2025-12-22",42.36],["2025-12-29",42.38],["2026-01-05",42.41],["2026-01-12",42.39],["2026-01-19",42.22],["2026-01-26",41.89],["2026-02-02",41.49],["2026-02-09",41.11],["2026-02-16",40.78],["2026-02-23",40.55],["2026-03-02",40.43],["2026-03-09",40.42],["2026-03-16",40.54],["2026-03-23",40.79],["2026-03-30",41.15],["2026-04-06",41.58]],"CON":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-21",null],["2024-10-28",null],["2024-11-04",null],["2024-11-11",null],["2024-11-18",null],["2024-11-25",null],["2024-12-02",null],["2024-12-09",null],["2024-12-16",null],["2024-12-23",null],["2024-12-30",null],["2025-01-06",null],["2025-01-13",null],["2025-01-20",null],["2025-01-27",41.59],["2025-02-03",41.53],["2025-02-10",41.5],["2025-02-17",41.49],["2025-02-24",41.51],["2025-03-03",41.57],["2025-03-10",41.7],["2025-03-17",41.94],["2025-03-24",42.42],["2025-03-31",43.24],["2025-04-07",44.14],["2025-04-14",44.6],["2025-04-21",44.48],["2025-04-28",44.03],["2025-05-05",43.44],["2025-05-12",42.87],["2025-05-19",42.4],["2025-05-26",42.11],["2025-06-02",42.0],["2025-06-09",42.07],["2025-06-16",42.24],["2025-06-23",42.48],["2025-06-30",42.74],["2025-07-07",42.99],["2025-07-14",43.21],["2025-07-21",43.42],["2025-07-28",43.56],["2025-08-04",43.53],["2025-08-11",43.28],["2025-08-18",42.87],["2025-08-25",42.35],["2025-09-01",41.77],["2025-09-08",41.19],["2025-09-15",40.68],["2025-09-22",40.29],["2025-09-29",40.03],["2025-10-06",39.86],["2025-10-13",39.77],["2025-10-20",39.71],["2025-10-27",39.64],["2025-11-03",39.54],["2025-11-10",39.43],["2025-11-17",39.35],["2025-11-24",39.34],["2025-12-01",39.39],["2025-12-08",39.47],["2025-12-15",39.57],["2025-12-22",39.64],["2025-12-29",39.65],["2026-01-05",39.57],["2026-01-12",39.45],["2026-01-19",39.41],["2026-01-26",39.55],["2026-02-02",39.82],["2026-02-09",40.14],["2026-02-16",40.45],["2026-02-23",40.72],["2026-03-02",40.91],["2026-03-09",41.03],["2026-03-16",41.06],["2026-03-23",41.02],["2026-03-30",40.93],["2026-04-06",40.8]],"GRN":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-21",null],["2024-10-28",null],["2024-11-04",null],["2024-11-11",null],["2024-11-18",null],["2024-11-25",null],["2024-12-02",null],["2024-12-09",null],["2024-12-16",null],["2024-12-23",null],["2024-12-30",null],["2025-01-06",null],["2025-01-13",null],["2025-01-20",null],["2025-01-27",9.35],["2025-02-03",9.31],["2025-02-10",9.31],["2025-02-17",9.37],["2025-02-24",9.49],["2025-03-03",9.65],["2025-03-10",9.8],["2025-03-17",9.88],["2025-03-24",9.78],["2025-03-31",9.37],["2025-04-07",8.77],["2025-04-14",8.34],["2025-04-21",8.25],["2025-04-28",8.37],["2025-05-05",8.56],["2025-05-12",8.73],["2025-05-19",8.83],["2025-05-26",8.82],["2025-06-02",8.71],["2025-06-09",8.53],["2025-06-16",8.31],["2025-06-23",8.07],["2025-06-30",7.86],["2025-07-07",7.69],["2025-07-14",7.61],["2025-07-21",7.73],["2025-07-28",8.24],["2025-08-04",9.05],["2025-08-11",9.68],["2025-08-18",9.95],["2025-08-25",10.03],["2025-09-01",10.03],["2025-09-08",9.99],["2025-09-15",9.93],["2025-09-22",9.85],["2025-09-29",9.78],["2025-10-06",9.7],["2025-10-13",9.64],["2025-10-20",9.59],["2025-10-27",9.54],["2025-11-03",9.49],["2025-11-10",9.45],["2025-11-17",9.42],["2025-11-24",9.42],["2025-12-01",9.44],["2025-12-08",9.47],["2025-12-15",9.5],["2025-12-22",9.55],["2025-12-29",9.6],["2026-01-05",9.68],["2026-01-12",9.82],["2026-01-19",10.03],["2026-01-26",10.25],["2026-02-02",10.44],["2026-02-09",10.57],["2026-02-16",10.66],["2026-02-23",10.7],["2026-03-02",10.71],["2026-03-09",10.69],["2026-03-16",10.64],["2026-03-23",10.56],["2026-03-30",10.48],["2026-04-06",10.39]],"ONEBC":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-21",null],["2024-10-28",null],["2024-11-04",null],["2024-11-11",null],["2024-11-18",null],["2024-11-25",null],["2024-12-02",null],["2024-12-09",null],["2024-12-16",null],["2024-12-23",null],["2024-12-30",null],["2025-01-06",null],["2025-01-13",null],["2025-01-20",null],["2025-01-27",null],["2025-02-03",null],["2025-02-10",null],["2025-02-17",null],["2025-02-24",null],["2025-03-03",null],["2025-03-10",null],["2025-03-17",null],["2025-03-24",null],["2025-03-31",null],["2025-04-07",null],["2025-04-14",null],["2025-04-21",null],["2025-04-28",null],["2025-05-05",null],["2025-05-12",null],["2025-05-19",null],["2025-05-26",null],["2025-06-02",null],["2025-06-09",1.0],["2025-06-16",null],["2025-06-23",null],["2025-06-30",null],["2025-07-07",null],["2025-07-14",null],["2025-07-21",null],["2025-07-28",null],["2025-08-04",null],["2025-08-11",null],["2025-08-18",null],["2025-08-25",null],["2025-09-01",null],["2025-09-08",null],["2025-09-15",null],["2025-09-22",null],["2025-09-29",null],["2025-10-06",2.72],["2025-10-13",2.95],["2025-10-20",3.28],["2025-10-27",3.77],["2025-11-03",4.41],["2025-11-10",5.12],["2025-11-17",5.77],["2025-11-24",6.25],["2025-12-01",6.55],["2025-12-08",6.71],["2025-12-15",6.79],["2025-12-22",6.8],["2025-12-29",6.73],["2026-01-05",6.56],["2026-01-12",6.31],["2026-01-19",6.04],["2026-01-26",5.83],["2026-02-02",5.71],["2026-02-09",5.63],["2026-02-16",5.57],["2026-02-23",5.49],["2026-03-02",5.37],["2026-03-09",5.18],["2026-03-16",4.88],["2026-03-23",4.48],["2026-03-30",4.05],["2026-04-06",3.67]],"CENTRE":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-21",null],["2024-10-28",null],["2024-11-04",null],["2024-11-11",null],["2024-11-18",null],["2024-11-25",null],["2024-12-02",null],["2024-12-09",null],["2024-12-16",null],["2024-12-23",null],["2024-12-30",null],["2025-01-06",null],["2025-01-13",null],["2025-01-20",null],["2025-01-27",null],["2025-02-03",null],["2025-02-10",null],["2025-02-17",null],["2025-02-24",null],["2025-03-03",null],["2025-03-10",null],["2025-03-17",null],["2025-03-24",null],["2025-03-31",null],["2025-04-07",null],["2025-04-14",null],["2025-04-21",null],["2025-04-28",null],["2025-05-05",null],["2025-05-12",null],["2025-05-19",null],["2025-05-26",null],["2025-06-02",null],["2025-06-09",2.0],["2025-06-16",null],["2025-06-23",null],["2025-06-30",null],["2025-07-07",null],["2025-07-14",null],["2025-07-21",null],["2025-07-28",null],["2025-08-04",null],["2025-08-11",null],["2025-08-18",null],["2025-08-25",null],["2025-09-01",null],["2025-09-08",null],["2025-09-15",null],["2025-09-22",null],["2025-09-29",null],["2025-10-06",2.44],["2025-10-13",2.33],["2025-10-20",2.22],["2025-10-27",2.11],["2025-11-03",2.01],["2025-11-10",1.94],["2025-11-17",1.9],["2025-11-24",1.89],["2025-12-01",1.9],["2025-12-08",1.92],["2025-12-15",1.95],["2025-12-22",null],["2025-12-29",null],["2026-01-05",null],["2026-01-12",null],["2026-01-19",null],["2026-01-26",null],["2026-02-02",null],["2026-02-09",null],["2026-02-16",null],["2026-02-23",null],["2026-03-02",null],["2026-03-09",null],["2026-03-16",null],["2026-03-23",null],["2026-03-30",null],["2026-04-06",null]]},"file":"2026-04-06_leger.json","publication":{"date":"2026-04-06","path":"by-date/2026-04-06.json","snapshots_that_day":["2026-04-06_leger.json"],"new_polls":[{"date":"2026-04-06","firm":"Leger","sample":1003,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":40,"GRN":10,"ONEBC":3}}],"previous_date":"2026-03-17","changes":{"from_date":"2026-03-17","from_file":"2026-03-17_angus-reid.json","average":{"NDP":1.54,"CON":-0.42,"GRN":-0.33,"ONEBC":-1.88,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":1.11},"seat_median":{"NDP":4.0,"CON":-4.0,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"p_majority":{"NDP":0.1432,"CON":-0.1487,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"p_minority":0.0055,"leader_changes":[{"id":"280","name":"Juan de Fuca-Malahat","from":"CON","to":"NDP"},{"id":"336","name":"Vancouver-Langara","from":"CON","to":"NDP"},{"id":"344","name":"Vancouver-Yaletown","from":"CON","to":"NDP"}]}}}