{"title":"British Columbia 2026 seat projection","label":"Projection, not a poll.","version":"bc-shadow-v1","generated":"2026-10-10T05:16:29+00:00","backfilled":true,"as_of":"2026-03-17","freeze_at":"2026-10-23 23:59:59 America/Vancouver (PDT, UTC-7)","data_window":{"from":"2024-10-20","to":"2026-03-17","rule":"Polls dated after the 2024 election, up to the newest poll; kernel weights as on the site."},"poll_set_hash":"8ee7221d6c43f58f","polls_used":[{"date":"2025-01-26","firm":"Leger","sample":1001,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":42,"GRN":10},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-02-15","firm":"Pallas Data","sample":677,"values":{"NDP":48.8,"CON":40.7,"GRN":7.6},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-03-05","firm":"Research Co.","sample":802,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":42,"GRN":11},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-05-04","firm":"Liaison Strategies","sample":800,"values":{"NDP":45,"CON":47,"GRN":7},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-05-25","firm":"Leger","sample":1032,"values":{"NDP":45,"CON":39,"GRN":11},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-06-09","firm":"Research Co.","sample":803,"values":{"NDP":43,"CON":42,"GRN":8,"ONEBC":1,"CENTRE":2},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-06-24","firm":"Mainstreet Research","sample":943,"values":{"NDP":41,"CON":44,"GRN":7},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-09-05","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":811,"values":{"NDP":42,"CON":44,"GRN":10},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-10-03","firm":"Research Co.","sample":801,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":38,"GRN":12,"ONEBC":1,"CENTRE":3},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-10-06","firm":"Cardinal Research","sample":1088,"values":{"NDP":42.5,"CON":41.3,"GRN":10,"ONEBC":3.8},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-10-12","firm":"Leger","sample":1035,"values":{"NDP":48,"CON":38,"GRN":8},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-10-15","firm":"Abacus Data","sample":1000,"values":{"NDP":47,"CON":40,"GRN":8,"ONEBC":1,"CENTRE":3},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-10-25","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":1044,"values":{"NDP":40,"CON":41,"GRN":11,"ONEBC":5,"CENTRE":1},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-11-25","firm":"EKOS","sample":889,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":35,"GRN":9,"ONEBC":8,"CENTRE":2},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-11-25","firm":"Yorkville Strategies","sample":600,"values":{"NDP":40,"CON":42,"GRN":8,"ONEBC":5},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-12-01","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":463,"values":{"NDP":43,"CON":40,"GRN":11},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-12-13","firm":"Pallas Data","sample":923,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":39,"GRN":9,"ONEBC":7},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-12-18","firm":"Mainstreet Research","sample":1902,"values":{"NDP":41,"CON":41,"GRN":10,"ONEBC":7},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-01-26","firm":"Leger","sample":1003,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":38,"GRN":9,"ONEBC":6},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-02-09","firm":"Leger","sample":1007,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":39,"GRN":9,"ONEBC":5},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-02-14","firm":"Pallas Data","sample":988,"values":{"NDP":42,"CON":37,"GRN":13,"ONEBC":6},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-02-24","firm":"One Persuasion","sample":1005,"values":{"NDP":37,"CON":41,"GRN":11,"ONEBC":6},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-02-27","firm":"Pallas Data","sample":1256,"values":{"NDP":42,"CON":40,"GRN":11,"ONEBC":5},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-03-03","firm":"Innovative Research","sample":991,"values":{"NDP":39,"CON":47,"GRN":10},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-03-13","firm":"Mainstreet Research","sample":1054,"values":{"NDP":39,"CON":37,"GRN":12},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-03-17","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":499,"values":{"NDP":42,"CON":44,"GRN":9},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]}],"new_polls":[{"date":"2026-03-17","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":499,"values":{"NDP":42,"CON":44,"GRN":9}}],"revised_polls":[],"average":{"NDP":{"mean":40.04,"lo":38.04,"hi":42.05},"CON":{"mean":41.22,"lo":37.52,"hi":44.93},"GRN":{"mean":10.72,"lo":9.51,"hi":11.94},"ONEBC":{"mean":5.55,"lo":5.06,"hi":6.05},"CENTRE":null},"model_target":{"NDP":40.04,"CON":41.22,"GRN":10.72,"ONEBC":5.55,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.46},"parameters":{"sigma_nat":4.601,"sigma_reg":5.246,"sigma_rid":6.785,"df_nat":4,"df_reg":4,"df_rid":4,"alpha":0.5,"draws":10000,"seed":20261024,"absent_transfers":{"GRN":{"NDP":0.6,"CON":0.21,"CENTRE":0.13,"ONEBC":0.03,"OTH":0.03},"ONEBC":{"CON":0.85,"NDP":0.1,"OTH":0.05},"CENTRE":{"CON":0.5,"NDP":0.37,"GRN":0.13}},"bc_united_residual_transfer":{"CENTRE":0.3,"CON":0.44,"NDP":0.175,"GRN":0.05,"OTH":0.035},"new_party_rules":{"ONEBC":"proxy","CENTRE":"proxy"},"regions":["Metro Vancouver","Fraser Valley","Vancouver Island","Interior and North"],"majority":47,"independents_carried":{"306":[{"name":"Jordan Kealy","label_2024":"Conservative Party","kind":"party","share_2024":74.4,"carried":29.0,"sdlog":0.57}]},"independent_rule":{"party":{"median":0.39,"sdlog":0.57},"independent":{"median":1.05,"sdlog":0.25}},"regional_adjustment":{"applied":false,"rule":"shrink province-wide swing toward regional poll splits","groups":{}}},"province":{"seats":{"NDP":{"seats_median":40.0,"seats_mean":40.0495,"seats_lo90":20.0,"seats_hi90":60.0,"p_majority":0.2842,"p_most_seats":0.3161,"vote_median":41.4689,"vote_lo90":34.6243,"vote_hi90":48.0961},"CON":{"seats_median":50.0,"seats_mean":50.2918,"seats_lo90":30.0,"seats_hi90":70.0,"p_majority":0.6318,"p_most_seats":0.6684,"vote_median":44.9214,"vote_lo90":38.2485,"vote_hi90":51.801},"GRN":{"seats_median":2.0,"seats_mean":2.4273,"seats_lo90":0.0,"seats_hi90":6.0,"p_majority":0.0001,"p_most_seats":0.0001,"vote_median":10.1422,"vote_lo90":6.2682,"vote_hi90":14.0349},"ONEBC":{"seats_median":0.0,"seats_mean":0.0074,"seats_lo90":0.0,"seats_hi90":0.0,"p_majority":0.0,"p_most_seats":0.0,"vote_median":2.3614,"vote_lo90":1.0842,"vote_hi90":3.7808},"CENTRE":{"seats_median":0.0,"seats_mean":0.0,"seats_lo90":0.0,"seats_hi90":0.0,"p_majority":0.0,"p_most_seats":0.0,"vote_median":0.0485,"vote_lo90":0.0154,"vote_hi90":0.1004},"OTH":{"seats_median":0.0,"seats_mean":0.224,"seats_lo90":0.0,"seats_hi90":1.0,"p_majority":0.0,"p_most_seats":0.0,"vote_median":0.9835,"vote_lo90":0.4501,"vote_hi90":1.6124}},"p_minority":0.0839,"p_tied_most_seats":0.0154,"ridings_led":{"NDP":38,"CON":53,"GRN":2,"ONEBC":0,"CENTRE":0,"OTH":0},"ridings_led_point":{"NDP":39,"CON":52,"GRN":2,"ONEBC":0,"CENTRE":0,"OTH":0},"categories":{"Solid":13,"Likely":27,"Leans":42,"Toss-up":11},"toss_ups":11,"seat_histogram":{"NDP":{"0":11,"1":5,"2":9,"3":8,"4":11,"5":5,"6":8,"7":14,"8":19,"9":14,"10":12,"11":21,"12":32,"13":23,"14":27,"15":42,"16":46,"17":46,"18":49,"19":59,"20":81,"21":80,"22":78,"23":123,"24":127,"25":136,"26":163,"27":171,"28":202,"29":197,"30":225,"31":230,"32":255,"33":287,"34":330,"35":278,"36":310,"37":312,"38":396,"39":364,"40":366,"41":361,"42":346,"43":337,"44":349,"45":287,"46":306,"47":299,"48":289,"49":241,"50":242,"51":198,"52":176,"53":165,"54":160,"55":137,"56":100,"57":102,"58":88,"59":95,"60":76,"61":74,"62":50,"63":46,"64":40,"65":30,"66":30,"67":26,"68":26,"69":20,"70":23,"71":11,"72":12,"73":10,"74":6,"75":8,"76":7,"77":7,"78":3,"79":8,"80":6,"81":7,"82":2,"83":3,"84":4,"85":3,"86":3,"87":1,"88":2,"89":4,"91":2},"CON":{"0":1,"1":1,"2":3,"3":3,"4":4,"5":2,"6":3,"7":5,"8":5,"9":3,"10":6,"11":5,"12":4,"13":8,"14":4,"15":9,"16":9,"17":13,"18":10,"19":15,"20":22,"21":12,"22":15,"23":28,"24":28,"25":34,"26":41,"27":45,"28":41,"29":71,"30":82,"31":95,"32":74,"33":106,"34":106,"35":110,"36":128,"37":193,"38":184,"39":197,"40":215,"41":231,"42":250,"43":273,"44":342,"45":341,"46":305,"47":345,"48":316,"49":359,"50":390,"51":355,"52":352,"53":331,"54":343,"55":290,"56":320,"57":260,"58":267,"59":251,"60":236,"61":212,"62":210,"63":181,"64":161,"65":136,"66":129,"67":116,"68":88,"69":97,"70":81,"71":65,"72":56,"73":46,"74":54,"75":36,"76":34,"77":32,"78":27,"79":25,"80":18,"81":17,"82":13,"83":11,"84":11,"85":8,"86":7,"87":9,"88":6,"89":4,"90":3,"91":5,"92":4,"93":1},"GRN":{"0":1136,"1":2024,"2":2761,"3":2054,"4":972,"5":474,"6":269,"7":123,"8":74,"9":48,"10":25,"11":16,"12":11,"13":2,"14":1,"15":4,"16":3,"18":1,"32":1,"52":1},"ONEBC":{"0":9953,"1":41,"2":3,"5":1,"9":1,"13":1},"OTH":{"0":7762,"1":2236,"2":2}},"projected_vote":{"NDP":41.63,"CON":44.93,"GRN":10.11,"ONEBC":2.36,"CENTRE":0.05,"OTH":0.94}},"ridings":[{"id":"258","name":"Abbotsford-Mission","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Reann Gasper","share":55.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":55.4,"NDP":44.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.03,"CON":49.23,"ONEBC":6.73},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Vacant","party_at_dissolution":null,"not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":"vacant"},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7335,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.2661,"CON":0.7335,"ONEBC":0.0003,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":40.12,"CON":50.58,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":6.84,"CENTRE":0.15,"OTH":2.3},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":25.33,"median":40.31,"hi90":54.8},"CON":{"lo90":34.62,"median":50.29,"hi90":65.0},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.2,"median":6.54,"hi90":15.02},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.1,"hi90":0.97},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.87,"hi90":7.66}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"vacant","note":"Vacant: Reann Gasper (Conservative) resigned 2026-08-22; the 2026-09-26 by-election was cancelled by dissolution. Kerry-Lynne Findlay is not a candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: no incumbent."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"259","name":"Abbotsford South","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Bruce Banman","share":61.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":61.6,"NDP":35.2,"IND":3.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":35.61,"CON":56.62,"ONEBC":7.77},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Bruce Banman","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9309,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0688,"CON":0.9309,"ONEBC":0.0003},"point":{"NDP":32.8,"CON":59.17,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":8.03,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":19.24,"median":33.02,"hi90":48.16},"CON":{"lo90":43.23,"median":58.85,"hi90":73.37},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.57,"median":7.67,"hi90":16.8}},"baseline_moves":["Amandeep Singh (independent 2024, 3.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Bruce Banman: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"260","name":"Abbotsford West","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Korky Neufeld","share":58.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":58.4,"NDP":36.9,"IND":4.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":37.72,"CON":54.77,"ONEBC":7.51},"running":["NDP","CON","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Korky Neufeld","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9451,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0549,"CON":0.9451},"point":{"NDP":35.61,"CON":64.22,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.17,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":21.25,"median":35.61,"hi90":50.32},"CON":{"lo90":49.41,"median":64.15,"hi90":78.49},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.11,"hi90":1.05}},"baseline_moves":["James Davison (independent 2024, 4.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"261","name":"Boundary-Similkameen","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Donegal Wilson","share":48.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":48.4,"NDP":42.6,"GRN":5.9,"IND":3.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":42.89,"CON":45.06,"GRN":5.89,"ONEBC":6.16},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Donegal Wilson","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6061,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3938,"CON":0.6061,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":44.66,"CON":48.74,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":6.6,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":30.2,"median":44.47,"hi90":58.87},"CON":{"lo90":34.37,"median":48.84,"hi90":63.29},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.49,"median":6.15,"hi90":14.57}},"baseline_moves":["Sean Taylor (independent 2024, 3.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Donegal Wilson: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"262","name":"Bulkley Valley-Stikine","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Sharon L. Hartwell","share":52.3},"shares_2024":{"CON":52.3,"NDP":38.9,"GRN":6.3,"OTH":2.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":38.35,"CON":46.47,"GRN":6.33,"ONEBC":6.36,"OTH":2.49},"running":["NDP","CON","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Sharon Hartwell","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8223,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1776,"CON":0.8223,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":40.23,"CON":54.43,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":5.34},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":26.53,"median":40.01,"hi90":53.66},"CON":{"lo90":40.61,"median":54.55,"hi90":68.3},"OTH":{"lo90":0.77,"median":4.98,"hi90":11.36}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"263","name":"Burnaby Centre","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Anne Kang","share":57.3},"shares_2024":{"NDP":57.3,"CON":42.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":56.57,"CON":38.23,"ONEBC":5.19},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Anne Kang","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.6976,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.6976,"CON":0.3024},"point":{"NDP":53.55,"CON":45.23,"GRN":1.22,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":39.1,"median":53.06,"hi90":66.72},"CON":{"lo90":31.33,"median":45.19,"hi90":58.95},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.84,"hi90":6.91}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"264","name":"Burnaby East","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Reah Arora","share":51.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.8,"CON":40.5,"GRN":7.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":51.2,"CON":36.24,"GRN":7.63,"ONEBC":4.93},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Rohini Arora","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7354,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7354,"CON":0.264,"GRN":0.0005,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":47.0,"CON":37.72,"GRN":10.21,"ONEBC":5.06,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.91,"median":46.82,"hi90":60.65},"CON":{"lo90":24.58,"median":37.72,"hi90":51.65},"GRN":{"lo90":1.95,"median":9.97,"hi90":19.33},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.73,"hi90":11.62}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"265","name":"Burnaby-New Westminster","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Raj Chouhan","share":60.0},"shares_2024":{"NDP":60.0,"CON":34.7,"IND":5.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":60.65,"CON":34.31,"GRN":0.4,"ONEBC":4.65},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Raj Chouhan","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8588,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8588,"CON":0.1412},"point":{"NDP":57.62,"CON":40.69,"GRN":1.7,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":43.18,"median":57.21,"hi90":70.34},"CON":{"lo90":27.22,"median":40.62,"hi90":54.65},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.35,"hi90":7.54}},"baseline_moves":["Daniel Kofi Ampong (independent 2024, 5.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"266","name":"Burnaby North","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Janet Routledge","share":53.3},"shares_2024":{"NDP":53.3,"CON":43.0,"IND":3.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":53.56,"CON":40.63,"GRN":0.28,"ONEBC":5.53},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Janet Routledge","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.6724,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.6724,"CON":0.3275,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":49.91,"CON":42.79,"GRN":1.55,"ONEBC":5.75,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":34.93,"median":49.43,"hi90":63.29},"CON":{"lo90":28.71,"median":42.76,"hi90":56.77},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.14,"hi90":7.29},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":5.37,"hi90":12.64}},"baseline_moves":["Martin Kendell (independent 2024, 3.7%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"267","name":"Burnaby South-Metrotown","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Paul Choi","share":49.3},"shares_2024":{"NDP":49.3,"CON":41.6,"GRN":6.3,"IND":1.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":49.44,"CON":38.8,"GRN":6.48,"ONEBC":5.28},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Paul Choi","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.6346,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.6346,"CON":0.3648,"GRN":0.0004,"ONEBC":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":45.32,"CON":40.39,"GRN":8.86,"ONEBC":5.43,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":31.24,"median":45.32,"hi90":59.1},"CON":{"lo90":26.67,"median":40.41,"hi90":54.68},"GRN":{"lo90":1.09,"median":8.52,"hi90":17.4},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":5.03,"hi90":11.99}},"baseline_moves":["Meiling Chia (independent 2024, 1.9%) not running: transferred","MichaelAngelo Abc RobinHood (independent 2024, 0.9%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"268","name":"Cariboo-Chilcotin","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Lorne Doerkson","share":69.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":69.6,"NDP":30.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":29.99,"CON":61.55,"ONEBC":8.46},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Lorne Doerkson","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9908,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0091,"CON":0.9908,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":27.31,"CON":71.49,"GRN":1.2,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":14.08,"median":27.03,"hi90":40.77},"CON":{"lo90":56.92,"median":71.01,"hi90":83.96},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.83,"hi90":7.84}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"leader_seat","note":"Conservative interim leader Lorne Doerkson.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low (safe seats)."}]},{"id":"269","name":"Chilliwack-Cultus Lake","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"A'aliya Warbus","share":54.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":54.6,"NDP":45.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.83,"CON":48.53,"ONEBC":6.64},"running":["NDP","CON"],"incumbent":{"name":"Áʼa꞉líya Warbus","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7992,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.2008,"CON":0.7992},"point":{"NDP":42.75,"CON":57.25,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":27.74,"median":42.75,"hi90":58.15},"CON":{"lo90":41.85,"median":57.25,"hi90":72.26}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Áʼa꞉líya Warbus: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"270","name":"Chilliwack North","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Heather Maahs","share":54.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":54.6,"NDP":37.7,"GRN":5.5,"IND":2.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":37.16,"CON":48.44,"GRN":5.5,"ONEBC":6.64,"CENTRE":2.26},"running":["NDP","CON","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Heather Maahs","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8709,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1291,"CON":0.8709},"point":{"NDP":39.73,"CON":59.19,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":1.08,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":25.01,"median":39.7,"hi90":54.72},"CON":{"lo90":44.11,"median":59.25,"hi90":74.01},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.05,"median":1.03,"hi90":2.31}},"baseline_moves":["Dan Grice (independent 2024) runs again as CENTRE"],"notes":[{"type":"returning_candidate","note":"Dan Grice took 2.3% as an independent in 2024 and is the 2026 CentreBC candidate; v1 moves his 2024 vote to CentreBC.","v1":"His 2024 votes are assigned to CentreBC.","why_it_may_matter":"Low."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"271","name":"Columbia River-Revelstoke","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Scott McInnis","share":47.9},"shares_2024":{"CON":47.9,"NDP":44.3,"GRN":7.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":43.69,"CON":42.67,"GRN":7.82,"ONEBC":5.83},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Scott McInnis","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.736,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.2627,"CON":0.736,"GRN":0.0013},"point":{"NDP":40.15,"CON":49.47,"GRN":10.38,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":25.24,"median":39.86,"hi90":54.64},"CON":{"lo90":35.1,"median":49.57,"hi90":64.53},"GRN":{"lo90":1.65,"median":10.13,"hi90":19.99}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Scott McInnis: left or was removed from the Conservative caucus in September 2026 and returned on 2026-09-21; Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low."}]},{"id":"272","name":"Coquitlam-Burke Mountain","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Jodie Wickens","share":50.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":50.8,"CON":49.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":50.2,"CON":43.82,"ONEBC":5.98},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jodie Wickens","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6207,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3793,"CON":0.6207},"point":{"NDP":47.18,"CON":51.61,"GRN":1.21,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.82,"median":46.71,"hi90":60.42},"CON":{"lo90":37.54,"median":51.44,"hi90":65.4},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.82,"hi90":6.76}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"273","name":"Coquitlam-Maillardville","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Jennifer Blatherwick","share":51.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.8,"CON":39.6,"GRN":6.3,"IND":2.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":51.75,"CON":36.76,"GRN":6.49,"ONEBC":5.0},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jennifer Blatherwick","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.6327,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.6327,"CON":0.3668,"GRN":0.0005},"point":{"NDP":48.17,"CON":42.94,"GRN":8.89,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":33.99,"median":47.94,"hi90":61.93},"CON":{"lo90":29.36,"median":43.0,"hi90":57.35},"GRN":{"lo90":1.31,"median":8.59,"hi90":17.56}},"baseline_moves":["Ken Holowanky (independent 2024, 2.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"274","name":"Courtenay-Comox","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Brennan Day","share":38.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":38.8,"NDP":38.6,"GRN":20.7,"IND":1.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":38.55,"CON":35.69,"GRN":20.88,"ONEBC":4.87},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Brennan Day","party_at_dissolution":"IND","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6284,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3016,"CON":0.6284,"GRN":0.07},"point":{"NDP":34.32,"CON":40.51,"GRN":25.17,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":19.9,"median":34.09,"hi90":48.77},"CON":{"lo90":25.98,"median":40.62,"hi90":56.06},"GRN":{"lo90":11.8,"median":24.84,"hi90":38.63}},"baseline_moves":["John Hedican (independent 2024, 1.5%) not running: transferred","Devin Howell (independent 2024, 0.4%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Brennan Day left the Conservative caucus on 2026-08-26 and returned after the writ; Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low."}]},{"id":"275","name":"Cowichan Valley","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Debra Toporowski","share":40.5},"shares_2024":{"NDP":40.5,"CON":37.6,"GRN":19.8,"IND":1.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":40.5,"CON":34.69,"GRN":19.97,"ONEBC":4.73,"OTH":0.1},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Debra Toporowski","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5569,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3838,"CON":0.5569,"GRN":0.0592,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":35.42,"CON":38.4,"GRN":23.65,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.53},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":20.86,"median":35.18,"hi90":49.68},"CON":{"lo90":24.56,"median":38.62,"hi90":53.58},"GRN":{"lo90":10.73,"median":23.09,"hi90":36.58},"OTH":{"lo90":0.1,"median":2.15,"hi90":7.74}},"baseline_moves":["Eden Haythornthwaite (independent 2024, 1.2%) not running: transferred","Jon Coleman (independent 2024, 0.9%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"276","name":"Delta North","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Ravi Kahlon","share":52.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":52.7,"CON":40.2,"GRN":6.2,"OTH":0.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":52.08,"CON":35.99,"GRN":6.2,"ONEBC":4.89,"OTH":0.84},"running":["NDP","CON","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Ravi Kahlon","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.745,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.745,"CON":0.255},"point":{"NDP":54.44,"CON":44.37,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":1.19,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":40.96,"median":54.34,"hi90":67.68},"CON":{"lo90":31.05,"median":44.41,"hi90":58.08},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.13,"median":1.14,"hi90":2.39}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Ravi Kahlon (NDP) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate: loss of incumbent (The Writ docks a party 3-4 points when its incumbent leaves)."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"277","name":"Delta South","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Ian Paton","share":55.1},"shares_2024":{"CON":55.1,"NDP":44.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.34,"CON":48.96,"ONEBC":6.7},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Ian Paton","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7699,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.2297,"CON":0.7699,"GRN":0.0001,"ONEBC":0.0003},"point":{"NDP":40.64,"CON":51.23,"GRN":1.21,"ONEBC":6.92,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":26.53,"median":40.31,"hi90":54.14},"CON":{"lo90":36.99,"median":51.14,"hi90":64.36},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.8,"hi90":6.75},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.28,"median":6.56,"hi90":14.1}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Ian Paton: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."},{"type":"notable_candidate","note":"Jim McMurtry (OneBC's first nominee; independent in Surrey-Serpentine River in 2024, PPC federally in 2025) runs here against incumbent Ian Paton (Conservative).","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate."}]},{"id":"278","name":"Esquimalt-Colwood","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Darlene Rotchford","share":51.5},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.5,"CON":29.2,"GRN":19.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":50.86,"CON":26.28,"GRN":19.31,"ONEBC":3.55},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Darlene Rotchford","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8198,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8198,"CON":0.1379,"GRN":0.0423},"point":{"NDP":46.24,"CON":30.17,"GRN":23.59,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":31.17,"median":46.15,"hi90":61.33},"CON":{"lo90":16.67,"median":30.29,"hi90":45.2},"GRN":{"lo90":10.46,"median":23.17,"hi90":37.23}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"279","name":"Fraser-Nicola","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Tony Luck","share":54.3},"shares_2024":{"CON":54.3,"NDP":36.4,"GRN":9.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":35.92,"CON":48.21,"GRN":9.27,"ONEBC":6.61},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Tony Luck","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9268,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0723,"CON":0.9268,"GRN":0.0009},"point":{"NDP":32.51,"CON":55.49,"GRN":12.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":18.3,"median":32.2,"hi90":46.36},"CON":{"lo90":41.02,"median":55.64,"hi90":70.53},"GRN":{"lo90":2.74,"median":11.75,"hi90":22.08}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"280","name":"Juan de Fuca-Malahat","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Dana Lajeunesse","share":38.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":38.8,"CON":38.2,"GRN":23.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":38.29,"CON":34.05,"GRN":23.01,"ONEBC":4.64},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Dana Lajeunesse","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.455,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3911,"CON":0.455,"GRN":0.1539},"point":{"NDP":32.72,"CON":33.64,"GRN":26.92,"ONEBC":4.52,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.19},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":18.31,"median":32.53,"hi90":46.97},"CON":{"lo90":19.69,"median":33.66,"hi90":48.39},"GRN":{"lo90":13.13,"median":26.44,"hi90":40.49},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.14,"hi90":11.24},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.82,"hi90":7.41}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"281","name":"Kamloops Centre","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Peter Milobar","share":48.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":48.8,"NDP":40.9,"GRN":10.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":40.39,"CON":43.42,"GRN":10.25,"ONEBC":5.94},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Peter Milobar","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7176,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.2784,"CON":0.7176,"GRN":0.0037,"ONEBC":0.0003},"point":{"NDP":35.33,"CON":43.67,"GRN":12.87,"ONEBC":5.9,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.23},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":20.76,"median":34.88,"hi90":49.05},"CON":{"lo90":28.99,"median":43.72,"hi90":58.63},"GRN":{"lo90":3.3,"median":12.55,"hi90":23.26},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":5.51,"hi90":13.5},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.77,"hi90":7.38}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Peter Milobar: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."}]},{"id":"282","name":"Kamloops-North Thompson","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Ward Stamer","share":59.7},"shares_2024":{"CON":59.7,"NDP":32.9,"GRN":7.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":32.46,"CON":52.92,"GRN":7.36,"ONEBC":7.26},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Ward Stamer","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.905,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0946,"CON":0.905,"ONEBC":0.0004},"point":{"NDP":35.5,"CON":56.78,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":7.72,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":22.02,"median":35.17,"hi90":49.65},"CON":{"lo90":42.28,"median":56.97,"hi90":70.91},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.73,"median":7.45,"hi90":15.69}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"283","name":"Kelowna Centre","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Kristina Loewen","share":42.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":42.8,"NDP":42.7,"IND":10.1,"GRN":4.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.99,"CON":44.6,"GRN":4.31,"ONEBC":6.09},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Kristina Loewen","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5681,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4317,"CON":0.5681,"ONEBC":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":45.52,"CON":47.99,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":6.49,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":30.84,"median":45.31,"hi90":59.72},"CON":{"lo90":33.65,"median":47.99,"hi90":62.59},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.37,"median":6.13,"hi90":14.27}},"baseline_moves":["Michael Humer (independent 2024, 10.1%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Michael Humer took 10.1% as an independent in 2024; not running. His vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"284","name":"Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Tara Armstrong","share":53.9},"shares_2024":{"CON":53.9,"NDP":35.2,"IND":6.5,"GRN":4.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":36.46,"CON":51.63,"GRN":4.83,"ONEBC":7.08},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Tara Armstrong","party_at_dissolution":"IND","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.906,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0938,"CON":0.906,"GRN":0.0001,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":32.55,"CON":53.35,"GRN":6.87,"ONEBC":7.23,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":18.41,"median":32.27,"hi90":46.42},"CON":{"lo90":38.14,"median":53.3,"hi90":68.21},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":6.57,"hi90":15.63},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.18,"median":6.93,"hi90":15.53}},"baseline_moves":["Kevin Kraft (independent 2024, 6.5%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Tara Armstrong (elected Conservative 2024; OneBC co-founder, then independent) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate."}]},{"id":"285","name":"Kelowna-Mission","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Gavin Dew","share":51.5},"shares_2024":{"CON":51.5,"NDP":32.6,"IND":11.0,"GRN":4.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":35.02,"CON":52.07,"GRN":5.76,"ONEBC":7.14},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Gavin Dew","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9238,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0754,"CON":0.9238,"GRN":0.0003,"ONEBC":0.0005},"point":{"NDP":31.09,"CON":53.68,"GRN":7.94,"ONEBC":7.28,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":17.08,"median":30.66,"hi90":44.91},"CON":{"lo90":38.81,"median":53.88,"hi90":68.32},"GRN":{"lo90":0.17,"median":7.63,"hi90":17.06},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.21,"median":6.98,"hi90":15.43}},"baseline_moves":["Ashley Ramsay (independent 2024, 11.0%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Ashley Ramsay took 11.0% as an independent in 2024; not running. Her vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"286","name":"Kootenay Central","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Brittny Anderson","share":39.6},"shares_2024":{"NDP":39.6,"CON":31.7,"GRN":18.7,"IND":10.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":41.71,"CON":34.14,"GRN":19.49,"ONEBC":4.65},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Brittny Anderson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5199,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5199,"CON":0.4173,"GRN":0.0627,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":36.93,"CON":34.74,"GRN":23.67,"ONEBC":4.67,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":22.21,"median":36.7,"hi90":51.41},"CON":{"lo90":20.37,"median":34.75,"hi90":50.02},"GRN":{"lo90":10.92,"median":23.41,"hi90":35.82},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.28,"hi90":11.83}},"baseline_moves":["Corinne Mori (independent 2024, 10.0%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Corinne Mori took 10.0% as an independent in 2024; not running. Her vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"287","name":"Kootenay-Monashee","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Steve Morissette","share":52.0},"shares_2024":{"NDP":52.0,"CON":38.9,"GRN":9.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":51.4,"CON":34.77,"GRN":9.11,"ONEBC":4.72},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Steve Morissette","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7567,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7567,"CON":0.2407,"GRN":0.0025,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":47.09,"CON":36.13,"GRN":11.93,"ONEBC":4.84,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":31.63,"median":46.86,"hi90":61.49},"CON":{"lo90":21.67,"median":36.18,"hi90":51.04},"GRN":{"lo90":2.54,"median":11.67,"hi90":22.01},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.43,"hi90":12.41}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"288","name":"Kootenay-Rockies","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Pete Davis","share":42.7},"shares_2024":{"CON":42.7,"IND":30.4,"NDP":21.7,"GRN":5.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":29.34,"CON":55.57,"GRN":7.46,"ONEBC":7.64},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Pete Davis","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9717,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0265,"CON":0.9717,"GRN":0.0014,"ONEBC":0.0004},"point":{"NDP":25.47,"CON":56.92,"GRN":9.88,"ONEBC":7.74,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":12.13,"median":25.2,"hi90":38.62},"CON":{"lo90":42.04,"median":56.97,"hi90":71.57},"GRN":{"lo90":1.28,"median":9.55,"hi90":19.7},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.39,"median":7.46,"hi90":15.97}},"baseline_moves":["Tom Shypitka (independent 2024, 30.4%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Tom Shypitka (ex-BC United MLA) took 30.4% as an independent in 2024; not running. His vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"289","name":"Ladysmith-Oceanside","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Stephanie Higginson","share":41.5},"shares_2024":{"NDP":41.5,"CON":35.5,"IND":16.3,"GRN":6.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":45.19,"CON":41.23,"GRN":7.95,"ONEBC":5.63},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Stephanie Higginson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6635,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3351,"CON":0.6635,"GRN":0.0014},"point":{"NDP":41.61,"CON":47.85,"GRN":10.54,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":26.31,"median":41.41,"hi90":56.28},"CON":{"lo90":33.06,"median":48.08,"hi90":63.21},"GRN":{"lo90":1.11,"median":10.12,"hi90":21.3}},"baseline_moves":["Adam Walker (independent 2024, 16.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Adam Walker took 16.3% as an independent in 2024; not running. His vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"290","name":"Langford-Highlands","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Ravi Parmar","share":51.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.9,"CON":37.4,"GRN":10.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":51.23,"CON":33.49,"GRN":10.73,"ONEBC":4.55},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Ravi Parmar","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7004,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7004,"CON":0.2969,"GRN":0.0026,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":46.22,"CON":37.81,"GRN":13.51,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.47},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":31.0,"median":45.9,"hi90":60.48},"CON":{"lo90":23.85,"median":37.77,"hi90":52.65},"GRN":{"lo90":3.03,"median":13.04,"hi90":24.46},"OTH":{"lo90":0.08,"median":2.09,"hi90":7.72}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"291","name":"Langley-Abbotsford","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Harman Bhangu","share":55.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":55.6,"NDP":33.7,"GRN":5.6,"IND":4.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":34.33,"CON":51.72,"GRN":5.87,"ONEBC":7.09,"OTH":0.98},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Harman Bhangu","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9145,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0848,"CON":0.9145,"GRN":0.0006,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":29.73,"CON":52.1,"GRN":7.89,"ONEBC":7.06,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.22},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":15.57,"median":29.51,"hi90":43.88},"CON":{"lo90":36.34,"median":51.94,"hi90":66.74},"GRN":{"lo90":0.41,"median":7.55,"hi90":16.42},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.11,"median":6.75,"hi90":15.35},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.8,"hi90":8.8}},"baseline_moves":["Karen Long (independent 2024, 4.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"292","name":"Langley-Walnut Grove","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Misty Van Popta","share":49.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":49.6,"NDP":44.8,"GRN":5.1,"IND":0.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.33,"CON":44.43,"GRN":5.17,"ONEBC":6.07},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Misty Van Popta","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.745,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.2548,"CON":0.745,"GRN":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":40.97,"CON":51.73,"GRN":7.3,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":25.56,"median":40.85,"hi90":56.12},"CON":{"lo90":36.2,"median":51.85,"hi90":66.8},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":6.93,"hi90":15.93}},"baseline_moves":["Carlos Suarez Rubio (independent 2024, 0.5%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"293","name":"Langley-Willowbrook","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Jody Toor","share":48.2},"shares_2024":{"CON":48.2,"NDP":44.4,"GRN":7.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":43.85,"CON":42.95,"GRN":7.34,"ONEBC":5.86},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jody Toor","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6184,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3802,"CON":0.6184,"GRN":0.0012,"ONEBC":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":39.71,"CON":44.47,"GRN":9.82,"ONEBC":6.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":24.26,"median":39.49,"hi90":54.54},"CON":{"lo90":28.84,"median":44.43,"hi90":59.87},"GRN":{"lo90":1.5,"median":9.53,"hi90":19.38},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":5.81,"hi90":13.99}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"294","name":"Maple Ridge East","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Lawrence Mok","share":47.0},"shares_2024":{"CON":47.0,"NDP":46.6,"GRN":6.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":46.04,"CON":41.9,"GRN":6.34,"ONEBC":5.72},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Lawrence Mok","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.644,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3558,"CON":0.644,"GRN":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":41.57,"CON":47.41,"GRN":8.48,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.54},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":26.03,"median":41.3,"hi90":56.06},"CON":{"lo90":32.09,"median":47.34,"hi90":62.43},"GRN":{"lo90":0.72,"median":8.14,"hi90":17.55},"OTH":{"lo90":0.12,"median":2.07,"hi90":7.8}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"295","name":"Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Lisa Beare","share":54.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":54.9,"CON":45.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":54.2,"CON":40.31,"ONEBC":5.48},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Lisa Beare","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.6935,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.6935,"CON":0.3063,"ONEBC":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":51.33,"CON":42.76,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":5.75,"CENTRE":0.16,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":36.55,"median":51.33,"hi90":65.84},"CON":{"lo90":27.67,"median":42.48,"hi90":57.45},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.08,"median":5.44,"hi90":13.62},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.11,"hi90":1.04}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"296","name":"Mid Island-Pacific Rim","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Josie Osborne","share":48.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":48.7,"CON":39.5,"GRN":11.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":48.13,"CON":35.26,"GRN":11.81,"ONEBC":4.8},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Josie Osborne","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5791,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5791,"CON":0.4173,"GRN":0.0036},"point":{"NDP":44.18,"CON":40.79,"GRN":15.03,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":29.11,"median":44.02,"hi90":59.01},"CON":{"lo90":26.01,"median":40.94,"hi90":55.9},"GRN":{"lo90":3.9,"median":14.64,"hi90":26.76}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"297","name":"Nanaimo-Gabriola Island","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Sheila Malcolmson","share":52.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":52.7,"CON":34.7,"GRN":12.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":52.11,"CON":31.08,"GRN":12.6,"ONEBC":4.21},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Sheila Malcolmson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7734,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7734,"CON":0.2205,"GRN":0.0061},"point":{"NDP":48.01,"CON":36.02,"GRN":15.97,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.71,"median":47.81,"hi90":62.69},"CON":{"lo90":22.02,"median":36.22,"hi90":50.75},"GRN":{"lo90":4.56,"median":15.54,"hi90":27.89}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"298","name":"Nanaimo-Lantzville","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"George Anderson","share":51.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.7,"CON":39.5,"GRN":8.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":51.11,"CON":35.35,"GRN":8.74,"ONEBC":4.8},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"George Anderson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.6563,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.6563,"CON":0.3418,"GRN":0.0019},"point":{"NDP":46.25,"CON":40.01,"GRN":11.25,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.49},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":31.44,"median":46.04,"hi90":60.57},"CON":{"lo90":25.72,"median":40.04,"hi90":54.37},"GRN":{"lo90":1.49,"median":10.78,"hi90":21.97},"OTH":{"lo90":0.09,"median":2.1,"hi90":7.54}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"299","name":"Nechako Lakes","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"John Rustad","share":67.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":67.4,"NDP":27.2,"GRN":5.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":26.84,"CON":59.62,"GRN":5.34,"ONEBC":8.2},"running":["NDP","CON","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"John Rustad","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9876,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0124,"CON":0.9876},"point":{"NDP":28.6,"CON":68.51,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.89},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":15.93,"median":28.35,"hi90":41.77},"CON":{"lo90":55.13,"median":68.6,"hi90":81.18},"OTH":{"lo90":0.45,"median":2.44,"hi90":8.04}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"John Rustad (former Conservative leader, MLA since 2005) is not running. Elections BC's web table lists an unaffiliated candidate (Clint Lambert) whom its CSV omits.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: loss of a long-time incumbent in a safe seat."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"300","name":"New Westminster-Coquitlam","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Jennifer Whiteside","share":59.1},"shares_2024":{"NDP":59.1,"CON":29.8,"GRN":11.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":58.44,"CON":26.9,"GRN":11.03,"ONEBC":3.63},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jennifer Whiteside","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9325,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9325,"CON":0.0655,"GRN":0.002},"point":{"NDP":53.14,"CON":30.52,"GRN":13.9,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.44},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":38.73,"median":52.94,"hi90":66.33},"CON":{"lo90":18.28,"median":30.53,"hi90":43.83},"GRN":{"lo90":4.31,"median":13.59,"hi90":23.93},"OTH":{"lo90":0.07,"median":2.11,"hi90":7.12}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"301","name":"North Coast-Haida Gwaii","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Tamara Davidson","share":64.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":64.9,"CON":35.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":64.16,"CON":31.58,"ONEBC":4.27},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Tamara Davidson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9128,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9128,"CON":0.0872},"point":{"NDP":61.21,"CON":37.57,"GRN":1.22,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":45.9,"median":60.45,"hi90":74.39},"CON":{"lo90":23.36,"median":37.47,"hi90":52.14},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.88,"hi90":7.96}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"302","name":"North Island","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Anna Kindy","share":47.1},"shares_2024":{"CON":47.1,"NDP":44.9,"GRN":8.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.36,"CON":41.92,"GRN":8.0,"ONEBC":5.72},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Anna Kindy","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6938,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3044,"CON":0.6938,"GRN":0.0017,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":39.84,"CON":47.27,"GRN":10.36,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.53},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":25.03,"median":39.65,"hi90":53.98},"CON":{"lo90":32.64,"median":47.38,"hi90":62.07},"GRN":{"lo90":0.89,"median":9.93,"hi90":20.75},"OTH":{"lo90":0.13,"median":2.1,"hi90":7.48}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"303","name":"North Vancouver-Lonsdale","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Bowinn Ma","share":64.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":64.9,"CON":35.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":64.11,"CON":31.62,"ONEBC":4.27},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Bowinn Ma","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9225,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9225,"CON":0.0774,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":61.17,"CON":37.61,"GRN":1.22,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":46.71,"median":60.72,"hi90":74.08},"CON":{"lo90":24.11,"median":37.53,"hi90":51.18},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.85,"hi90":6.76}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"304","name":"North Vancouver-Seymour","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Susie Chant","share":52.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":52.8,"CON":35.8,"IND":5.8,"GRN":5.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":53.63,"CON":35.5,"GRN":6.04,"ONEBC":4.82},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Susie Chant","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7932,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7932,"CON":0.2061,"GRN":0.0005,"ONEBC":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":49.55,"CON":37.11,"GRN":8.37,"ONEBC":4.97,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":35.45,"median":49.21,"hi90":63.2},"CON":{"lo90":23.8,"median":37.21,"hi90":50.69},"GRN":{"lo90":0.98,"median":8.15,"hi90":16.86},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.66,"hi90":11.49}},"baseline_moves":["Mitchell Baker (independent 2024, 5.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_moved","note":"Lynne Block (Conservative MLA for West Vancouver-Capilano) is the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: a sitting MLA as challenger."}]},{"id":"305","name":"Oak Bay-Gordon Head","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Diana Gibson","share":49.1},"shares_2024":{"NDP":49.1,"CON":28.9,"GRN":22.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":48.52,"CON":25.96,"GRN":22.01,"ONEBC":3.51},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Diana Gibson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7624,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7624,"CON":0.154,"GRN":0.0836},"point":{"NDP":43.77,"CON":29.64,"GRN":26.59,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":28.65,"median":43.71,"hi90":58.79},"CON":{"lo90":16.26,"median":29.69,"hi90":44.51},"GRN":{"lo90":12.98,"median":26.19,"hi90":40.11}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"notable_candidate","note":"Andrew Weaver (Green leader 2015-2020 and MLA for Oak Bay-Gordon Head 2013-2020) runs for CentreBC.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"High: a former MLA with a personal following could take far more than CentreBC's provincial share."}]},{"id":"306","name":"Peace River North","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Jordan Kealy","share":74.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":74.4,"IND":20.1,"NDP":5.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":5.41,"CON":56.33,"ONEBC":7.78,"OTH":30.48},"running":["CON","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jordan Kealy","party_at_dissolution":"IND","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7766,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"CON":0.7766,"OTH":0.2234},"point":{"NDP":0.0,"CON":66.25,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":33.75},"share":{"CON":{"lo90":23.08,"median":66.19,"hi90":86.28},"OTH":{"lo90":13.72,"median":33.81,"hi90":76.92}},"baseline_moves":["Jordan Kealy (Conservative Party 2024, 74.4%) runs as an independent: 29.0 points carried forward (retention 0.39), held out of the swing","Dan Davies (independent 2024, 20.1%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"independent_incumbent","note":"Jordan Kealy (elected Conservative 2024 with 74.4%) left the caucus in March 2025 and runs as an independent. The NDP has no candidate (incomplete paperwork). Two-way race: Kealy v. Conservative Curtis Whitford.","v1":"v1.1: Kealy's 2024 share (74.4%, as a Conservative) is carried forward at the median retention of former party MLAs who ran as independents (0.39, so 29.0 points; log-normal spread, 90% range about 11-70 points), held out of the swing; the Conservative label keeps the rest. The NDP's share (no candidate) moves in proportion to the candidates who run.","why_it_may_matter":"High. An incumbent independent can win: Perry Trimper (NL 2021) kept more than his party share; most former party MLAs keep 15-50%."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"307","name":"Peace River South","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Larry Neufeld","share":69.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":69.8,"IND":24.6,"NDP":5.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":12.04,"CON":76.13,"ONEBC":10.51,"OTH":1.31},"running":["NDP","CON","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Larry Neufeld","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9994,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0006,"CON":0.9994},"point":{"NDP":10.62,"CON":85.3,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":4.09},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":2.27,"median":10.68,"hi90":21.73},"CON":{"lo90":73.41,"median":84.98,"hi90":94.34},"OTH":{"lo90":0.52,"median":3.75,"hi90":9.74}},"baseline_moves":["Mike Bernier (independent 2024, 24.6%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Mike Bernier (ex-BC United MLA, CentreBC leader July-Sept 2026) took 24.6% as an independent in 2024; not running. His vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"308","name":"Penticton-Summerland","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Amelia Boultbee","share":41.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":41.4,"NDP":40.2,"IND":9.7,"GRN":5.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":40.61,"CON":47.4,"GRN":5.5,"ONEBC":6.49},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Amelia Boultbee","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7881,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.2116,"CON":0.7881,"GRN":0.0002,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":36.61,"CON":49.08,"GRN":7.67,"ONEBC":6.64,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":22.22,"median":36.42,"hi90":51.41},"CON":{"lo90":33.75,"median":49.14,"hi90":64.27},"GRN":{"lo90":0.08,"median":7.4,"hi90":16.79},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":6.18,"hi90":14.63}},"baseline_moves":["Tracy St Claire (independent 2024) runs again as CON","Roger Harrington (independent 2024, 2.9%) not running: transferred","Anna Paddon (independent 2024, 0.5%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Amelia Boultbee (elected Conservative 2024) left the caucus in Oct 2025 and joined the NDP in July 2026; not running. OneBC runs Warren Hamm (former Conservative leadership candidate).","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: no incumbent; a OneBC candidate with a profile could split the Conservative vote."}]},{"id":"309","name":"Port Coquitlam","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Mike Farnworth","share":53.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":53.9,"CON":38.8,"GRN":6.4,"OTH":0.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":53.21,"CON":34.74,"GRN":6.4,"ONEBC":4.72,"OTH":0.94},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Mike Farnworth","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7305,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7305,"CON":0.2693,"GRN":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":48.46,"CON":39.5,"GRN":8.59,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.45},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":34.51,"median":48.27,"hi90":61.88},"CON":{"lo90":26.0,"median":39.59,"hi90":53.05},"GRN":{"lo90":1.05,"median":8.34,"hi90":16.96},"OTH":{"lo90":0.2,"median":3.16,"hi90":8.34}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"310","name":"Port Moody-Burquitlam","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Rick Glumac","share":52.1},"shares_2024":{"NDP":52.1,"CON":40.5,"GRN":7.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":51.41,"CON":36.22,"GRN":7.44,"ONEBC":4.92},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Rick Glumac","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.6422,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.6422,"CON":0.3567,"GRN":0.0011},"point":{"NDP":47.76,"CON":42.25,"GRN":9.99,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":33.51,"median":47.69,"hi90":61.68},"CON":{"lo90":28.45,"median":42.34,"hi90":56.2},"GRN":{"lo90":1.85,"median":9.65,"hi90":18.75}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"311","name":"Powell River-Sunshine Coast","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Randene Neill","share":49.6},"shares_2024":{"NDP":49.6,"CON":35.7,"GRN":13.5,"IND":1.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":49.32,"CON":32.67,"GRN":13.57,"ONEBC":4.44},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Randene Neill","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.6919,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.6919,"CON":0.3019,"GRN":0.0062},"point":{"NDP":45.21,"CON":37.73,"GRN":17.06,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":30.98,"median":45.15,"hi90":59.21},"CON":{"lo90":24.07,"median":37.86,"hi90":51.82},"GRN":{"lo90":6.71,"median":16.9,"hi90":28.28}},"baseline_moves":["Greg Reid (independent 2024, 1.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"312","name":"Prince George-Mackenzie","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Kiel Giddens","share":60.9},"shares_2024":{"CON":60.9,"NDP":28.2,"GRN":8.5,"IND":2.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":28.47,"CON":55.27,"GRN":8.67,"ONEBC":7.59},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Kiel Giddens","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9847,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0146,"CON":0.9847,"GRN":0.0007},"point":{"NDP":25.39,"CON":63.35,"GRN":11.26,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":12.29,"median":25.03,"hi90":38.82},"CON":{"lo90":48.51,"median":63.51,"hi90":77.52},"GRN":{"lo90":2.26,"median":10.94,"hi90":21.24}},"baseline_moves":["Rachael Weber (independent 2024, 2.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"313","name":"Prince George-North Cariboo","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Sheldon Clare","share":56.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":56.8,"IND":21.8,"NDP":17.0,"GRN":4.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":22.47,"CON":62.92,"GRN":5.95,"ONEBC":8.66},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Sheldon Clare","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9969,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.003,"CON":0.9969,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":19.79,"CON":72.12,"GRN":8.1,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":7.54,"median":19.32,"hi90":32.46},"CON":{"lo90":58.34,"median":72.28,"hi90":85.19},"GRN":{"lo90":0.29,"median":7.94,"hi90":17.29}},"baseline_moves":["Coralee Oakes (independent 2024, 21.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Coralee Oakes (ex-BC United MLA) took 21.8% as an independent in 2024; not running. Her vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"314","name":"Prince George-Valemount","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Rosalyn Bird","share":55.2},"shares_2024":{"CON":55.2,"NDP":34.9,"GRN":9.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":34.48,"CON":48.95,"GRN":9.87,"ONEBC":6.71},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Rosalyn Bird","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8988,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0986,"CON":0.8988,"GRN":0.0024,"ONEBC":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":30.37,"CON":50.16,"GRN":12.68,"ONEBC":6.8,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":16.39,"median":30.02,"hi90":43.9},"CON":{"lo90":35.41,"median":50.11,"hi90":65.23},"GRN":{"lo90":3.01,"median":12.46,"hi90":23.06},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":6.46,"hi90":14.75}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Rosalyn Bird: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."}]},{"id":"315","name":"Richmond-Bridgeport","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Teresa Wat","share":58.2},"shares_2024":{"CON":58.2,"NDP":34.8,"GRN":3.2,"IND":3.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":35.38,"CON":54.0,"GRN":3.21,"ONEBC":7.41},"running":["NDP","CON"],"incumbent":{"name":"Teresa Wat","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.954,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.046,"CON":0.954},"point":{"NDP":36.05,"CON":63.95,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":23.32,"median":36.02,"hi90":49.57},"CON":{"lo90":50.43,"median":63.98,"hi90":76.68}},"baseline_moves":["Glynnis Hoi Sum Chan (independent 2024, 3.0%) not running: transferred","Charlie Smith (independent 2024, 0.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Teresa Wat: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"316","name":"Richmond Centre","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Hon Chan","share":52.0},"shares_2024":{"CON":52.0,"NDP":36.8,"IND":3.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":39.06,"CON":52.4,"GRN":0.8,"ONEBC":7.18,"OTH":0.56},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Hon Chan","party_at_dissolution":"IND","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9386,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0614,"CON":0.9386},"point":{"NDP":35.25,"CON":59.46,"GRN":2.1,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.18},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":22.16,"median":35.0,"hi90":47.94},"CON":{"lo90":45.32,"median":59.33,"hi90":72.46},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.7,"hi90":8.07},"OTH":{"lo90":0.28,"median":2.89,"hi90":8.06}},"baseline_moves":["Wendy Yuan (independent 2024, 6.3%) not running: transferred","Dickens Cheung (independent 2024, 3.4%) not running: transferred","Sunny Ho (independent 2024, 1.5%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Hon Chan (elected Conservative 2024, removed from caucus March 2026) is not on the ballot.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: loss of incumbent."}]},{"id":"317","name":"Richmond-Queensborough","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Steve Kooner","share":50.9},"shares_2024":{"CON":50.9,"NDP":44.1,"IND":1.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.84,"CON":48.2,"GRN":0.37,"ONEBC":6.59},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Steve Kooner","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8375,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1624,"CON":0.8375,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":41.83,"CON":56.52,"GRN":1.65,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":28.15,"median":41.63,"hi90":55.11},"CON":{"lo90":42.42,"median":56.35,"hi90":69.77},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.22,"hi90":7.28}},"baseline_moves":["Cindy Wu (independent 2024, 3.7%) not running: transferred","Errol E. Povah (independent 2024, 1.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"318","name":"Richmond-Steveston","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Kelly Greene","share":44.3},"shares_2024":{"NDP":44.3,"CON":42.2,"IND":10.1,"GRN":3.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":46.39,"CON":43.67,"GRN":3.44,"ONEBC":5.96,"OTH":0.54},"running":["NDP","CON","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Kelly Greene","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6494,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3506,"CON":0.6494},"point":{"NDP":45.3,"CON":50.74,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.69,"OTH":3.26},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":31.86,"median":45.16,"hi90":58.51},"CON":{"lo90":37.2,"median":50.77,"hi90":64.07},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.65,"hi90":1.64},"OTH":{"lo90":0.39,"median":2.98,"hi90":8.09}},"baseline_moves":["Jackie Lee (independent 2024, 10.1%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Kelly Greene (NDP) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate: loss of incumbent (The Writ docks a party 3-4 points when its incumbent leaves)."},{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Jackie Lee took 10.1% as an independent in 2024; not running. Her vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"319","name":"Saanich North and the Islands","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"GRN","name":"Rob Botterell","share":36.2},"shares_2024":{"GRN":36.2,"NDP":32.2,"CON":29.8,"IND":1.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":32.26,"CON":27.68,"GRN":36.29,"ONEBC":3.77},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Rob Botterell","party_at_dissolution":"GRN","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"GRN","prob":0.6744,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1178,"CON":0.2078,"GRN":0.6744},"point":{"NDP":27.55,"CON":30.66,"GRN":41.78,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":13.37,"median":27.22,"hi90":42.18},"CON":{"lo90":16.96,"median":30.94,"hi90":46.52},"GRN":{"lo90":25.73,"median":41.29,"hi90":56.42}},"baseline_moves":["Amy Haysom (independent 2024, 1.9%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"green_seat","note":"One of the Greens' two 2024 seats. Rob Botterell (Green MLA) is not running; Green leader Emily Lowan is the candidate. CentreBC also runs.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"High. The Green hold depends on the candidate and on NDP-Green tactical voting, neither of which is modelled; the riding is close to a three-way contest."}]},{"id":"320","name":"Saanich South","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Lana Popham","share":49.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":49.8,"CON":32.4,"GRN":17.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":49.15,"CON":29.11,"GRN":17.79,"ONEBC":3.95},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Lana Popham","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7491,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7491,"CON":0.2232,"GRN":0.0277},"point":{"NDP":44.71,"CON":33.43,"GRN":21.86,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":29.63,"median":44.61,"hi90":59.62},"CON":{"lo90":19.57,"median":33.63,"hi90":48.52},"GRN":{"lo90":9.16,"median":21.44,"hi90":34.59}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Lana Popham (NDP) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate: loss of incumbent (The Writ docks a party 3-4 points when its incumbent leaves)."}]},{"id":"321","name":"Salmon Arm-Shuswap","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"David L. Williams","share":52.1},"shares_2024":{"CON":52.1,"NDP":30.4,"IND":9.2,"GRN":7.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":32.73,"CON":52.25,"GRN":7.86,"ONEBC":7.17},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"David Williams","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9417,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0571,"CON":0.9417,"GRN":0.0009,"ONEBC":0.0003},"point":{"NDP":28.75,"CON":53.62,"GRN":10.36,"ONEBC":7.27,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":14.55,"median":28.41,"hi90":42.26},"CON":{"lo90":38.63,"median":53.77,"hi90":68.82},"GRN":{"lo90":1.64,"median":10.05,"hi90":20.07},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.18,"median":6.95,"hi90":15.62}},"baseline_moves":["Greg McCune (independent 2024, 9.2%) not running: transferred","Sherry Roy (independent 2024, 1.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"322","name":"Skeena","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Claire Rattée","share":51.2},"shares_2024":{"CON":51.2,"NDP":44.4,"GRN":3.3,"OTH":1.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":43.86,"CON":45.56,"GRN":3.33,"ONEBC":6.22,"OTH":1.03},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Claire Rattée","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6837,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3153,"CON":0.6837,"GRN":0.0004,"ONEBC":0.0006},"point":{"NDP":40.39,"CON":47.94,"GRN":5.2,"ONEBC":6.47,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":25.2,"median":40.18,"hi90":54.56},"CON":{"lo90":32.73,"median":47.85,"hi90":63.04},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.88,"hi90":13.52},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":6.13,"hi90":14.69}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Claire Rattée: left or was removed from the Conservative caucus in September 2026 and returned on 2026-09-21; Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low."}]},{"id":"323","name":"Surrey City Centre","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Amna Shah","share":46.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":46.7,"CON":45.1,"GRN":6.1,"IND":1.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":46.41,"CON":40.91,"GRN":6.09,"ONEBC":5.58,"OTH":1.01},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Amna Shah","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5783,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5783,"CON":0.4216,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":48.02,"CON":44.8,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":6.05,"CENTRE":1.14,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":34.01,"median":47.86,"hi90":61.52},"CON":{"lo90":31.28,"median":44.8,"hi90":58.87},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.43,"median":5.79,"hi90":12.98},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.15,"median":1.09,"hi90":2.29}},"baseline_moves":["Saeed Naguib (independent 2024, 1.1%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"324","name":"Surrey-Cloverdale","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Elenore Sturko","share":48.3},"shares_2024":{"CON":48.3,"NDP":45.6,"GRN":5.4,"OTH":0.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.97,"CON":43.03,"GRN":5.41,"ONEBC":5.87,"OTH":0.72},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Elenore Sturko","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":true,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6031,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3963,"CON":0.6031,"GRN":0.0004,"ONEBC":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":41.24,"CON":45.05,"GRN":7.64,"ONEBC":6.07,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":27.04,"median":41.15,"hi90":55.07},"CON":{"lo90":31.09,"median":45.04,"hi90":59.26},"GRN":{"lo90":0.53,"median":7.33,"hi90":15.79},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.08,"median":5.73,"hi90":13.04}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_moved","note":"Elenore Sturko (MLA, elected Conservative 2024) is running in Surrey South instead; open seat.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: loss of incumbent."}]},{"id":"325","name":"Surrey-Fleetwood","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Jagrup Brar","share":48.6},"shares_2024":{"NDP":48.6,"CON":44.9,"GRN":6.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":47.99,"CON":40.08,"GRN":6.47,"ONEBC":5.46},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jagrup Brar","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5559,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5559,"CON":0.4432,"GRN":0.0007,"ONEBC":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":43.88,"CON":41.68,"GRN":8.84,"ONEBC":5.61,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":29.61,"median":43.76,"hi90":57.54},"CON":{"lo90":27.9,"median":41.69,"hi90":55.58},"GRN":{"lo90":1.19,"median":8.51,"hi90":17.64},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":5.31,"hi90":12.51}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"326","name":"Surrey-Guildford","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Garry Begg","share":46.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":46.9,"CON":46.8,"GRN":4.3,"IND":1.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":46.8,"CON":42.8,"GRN":4.46,"ONEBC":5.84,"OTH":0.1},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Garry Begg","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6648,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3347,"CON":0.6648,"GRN":0.0005},"point":{"NDP":42.44,"CON":48.58,"GRN":6.33,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.65},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":28.22,"median":42.17,"hi90":55.89},"CON":{"lo90":34.75,"median":48.56,"hi90":62.15},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":6.08,"hi90":13.65},"OTH":{"lo90":0.19,"median":2.32,"hi90":7.25}},"baseline_moves":["Kabir Qurban (independent 2024, 1.9%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"327","name":"Surrey-Newton","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Jessie Sunner","share":51.2},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.2,"CON":43.0,"OTH":2.4,"IND":2.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":51.49,"CON":40.6,"ONEBC":5.53,"OTH":2.38},"running":["NDP","CON","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jessie Sunner","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5357,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5357,"CON":0.4643},"point":{"NDP":50.47,"CON":49.36,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.17,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":36.56,"median":50.57,"hi90":64.61},"CON":{"lo90":35.08,"median":49.2,"hi90":63.14},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.11,"hi90":0.96}},"baseline_moves":["Japreet Lehal (independent 2024, 2.2%) not running: transferred","Joginder Singh Randhawa (independent 2024, 1.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"328","name":"Surrey North","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Mandeep Dhaliwal","share":50.7},"shares_2024":{"CON":50.7,"NDP":43.3,"GRN":4.2,"OTH":1.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":42.92,"CON":45.52,"GRN":4.27,"ONEBC":6.22,"OTH":1.06},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Mandeep Dhaliwal","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7228,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.2769,"CON":0.7228,"GRN":0.0001,"ONEBC":0.0001,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":38.09,"CON":46.24,"GRN":6.11,"ONEBC":6.24,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.32},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":24.53,"median":37.83,"hi90":51.26},"CON":{"lo90":32.47,"median":46.29,"hi90":59.64},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":5.74,"hi90":13.44},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.06,"median":5.96,"hi90":13.01},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.07,"hi90":8.51}},"baseline_moves":["Hobby Nijjar (independent 2024, 0.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"329","name":"Surrey-Panorama","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Bryan Tepper","share":49.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":49.6,"NDP":48.1,"OTH":2.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":47.49,"CON":44.2,"ONEBC":6.03,"OTH":2.28},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Bryan Tepper","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.702,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.298,"CON":0.702},"point":{"NDP":45.54,"CON":53.22,"GRN":1.24,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":30.95,"median":45.09,"hi90":58.91},"CON":{"lo90":39.17,"median":53.15,"hi90":66.89},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.84,"hi90":7.01}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"330","name":"Surrey-Serpentine River","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Linda Hepner","share":49.7},"shares_2024":{"CON":49.7,"NDP":47.5,"IND":2.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":47.62,"CON":45.95,"ONEBC":6.27,"OTH":0.15},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Linda Hepner","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6019,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.398,"CON":0.6019,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":43.64,"CON":47.35,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":6.39,"CENTRE":0.15,"OTH":2.46},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":29.66,"median":43.49,"hi90":57.04},"CON":{"lo90":33.28,"median":47.23,"hi90":60.8},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.27,"median":6.04,"hi90":13.39},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.1,"hi90":0.84},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.2,"hi90":7.26}},"baseline_moves":["Jim McMurtry (independent 2024, 2.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Linda Hepner (elected Conservative 2024) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"331","name":"Surrey South","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Brent Chapman","share":58.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":58.8,"NDP":41.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":40.62,"CON":52.22,"ONEBC":7.15},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Brent Chapman","party_at_dissolution":"ONEBC","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9274,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0725,"CON":0.9274,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":36.81,"CON":59.39,"GRN":1.18,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.62},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":23.29,"median":36.31,"hi90":49.74},"CON":{"lo90":45.44,"median":59.32,"hi90":72.1},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.82,"hi90":6.56},"OTH":{"lo90":0.23,"median":2.29,"hi90":7.32}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"new_party_leader","note":"Elenore Sturko (CentreBC leader; MLA for Surrey-Cloverdale, elected Conservative 2024) runs here. Brent Chapman (elected Conservative 2024 with 58.8%, crossed to OneBC on 2026-09-22) is not on the ballot.","v1":"Not adjusted in the default; seeded in the sensitivity run.","why_it_may_matter":"High. A party leader and sitting MLA could take far more than CentreBC's provincial share. The 'seeded' sensitivity adds 7.5 points."}]},{"id":"332","name":"Surrey-White Rock","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Trevor Halford","share":52.3},"shares_2024":{"CON":52.3,"NDP":45.3,"OTH":2.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.71,"CON":46.56,"ONEBC":6.36,"OTH":2.38},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Trevor Halford","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7108,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.2887,"CON":0.7108,"ONEBC":0.0005},"point":{"NDP":40.08,"CON":47.64,"GRN":1.18,"ONEBC":6.43,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":4.67},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":25.8,"median":39.68,"hi90":53.17},"CON":{"lo90":33.73,"median":47.59,"hi90":60.82},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.81,"hi90":6.5},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.22,"median":6.13,"hi90":13.36},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.45,"hi90":10.11}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Trevor Halford: left or was removed from the Conservative caucus in September 2026 and returned on 2026-09-21; Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low."}]},{"id":"333","name":"Vancouver-Fraserview","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"George Chow","share":57.2},"shares_2024":{"NDP":57.2,"CON":36.6,"GRN":6.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":56.49,"CON":32.86,"GRN":6.2,"ONEBC":4.45},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"George Chow","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.826,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.826,"CON":0.1736,"GRN":0.0004},"point":{"NDP":52.9,"CON":38.53,"GRN":8.57,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":38.59,"median":52.8,"hi90":66.29},"CON":{"lo90":25.12,"median":38.53,"hi90":52.54},"GRN":{"lo90":1.08,"median":8.3,"hi90":16.94}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"George Chow (NDP) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate: loss of incumbent (The Writ docks a party 3-4 points when its incumbent leaves)."}]},{"id":"334","name":"Vancouver-Hastings","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Niki Sharma","share":64.1},"shares_2024":{"NDP":64.1,"CON":24.3,"GRN":10.9,"IND":0.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":63.62,"CON":22.43,"GRN":10.9,"ONEBC":3.01,"OTH":0.04},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Niki Sharma","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9767,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9767,"CON":0.021,"GRN":0.0023},"point":{"NDP":58.18,"CON":25.57,"GRN":13.81,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.45},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":44.07,"median":58.0,"hi90":70.95},"CON":{"lo90":14.03,"median":25.6,"hi90":38.56},"GRN":{"lo90":4.3,"median":13.52,"hi90":23.7},"OTH":{"lo90":0.05,"median":2.12,"hi90":7.09}},"baseline_moves":["Zsolt Kiss (independent 2024, 0.7%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"335","name":"Vancouver-Kensington","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Mable Elmore","share":60.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":60.9,"CON":31.5,"GRN":7.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":60.19,"CON":28.39,"GRN":7.58,"ONEBC":3.83},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Mable Elmore","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9231,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9231,"CON":0.0764,"GRN":0.0005},"point":{"NDP":56.45,"CON":33.33,"GRN":10.22,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":42.3,"median":56.27,"hi90":69.72},"CON":{"lo90":20.66,"median":33.37,"hi90":47.49},"GRN":{"lo90":2.04,"median":9.93,"hi90":19.16}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"336","name":"Vancouver-Langara","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Sunita Dhir","share":48.4},"shares_2024":{"NDP":48.4,"CON":46.0,"GRN":5.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":47.82,"CON":41.07,"GRN":5.52,"ONEBC":5.6},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Sunita Dhir","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5923,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4074,"CON":0.5923,"GRN":0.0003},"point":{"NDP":44.37,"CON":47.91,"GRN":7.72,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":30.33,"median":44.34,"hi90":58.23},"CON":{"lo90":34.0,"median":47.9,"hi90":62.0},"GRN":{"lo90":0.68,"median":7.51,"hi90":15.92}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"337","name":"Vancouver-Little Mountain","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Christine Boyle","share":62.1},"shares_2024":{"NDP":62.1,"CON":30.6,"GRN":7.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":61.4,"CON":27.6,"GRN":7.28,"ONEBC":3.72},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Christine Boyle","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.942,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.942,"CON":0.0574,"GRN":0.0006},"point":{"NDP":57.68,"CON":32.44,"GRN":9.87,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":43.59,"median":57.61,"hi90":70.93},"CON":{"lo90":19.8,"median":32.54,"hi90":46.04},"GRN":{"lo90":1.93,"median":9.58,"hi90":18.7}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"338","name":"Vancouver-Point Grey","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"David Eby","share":56.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":56.8,"CON":34.5,"GRN":8.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":56.09,"CON":31.0,"GRN":8.72,"ONEBC":4.2},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"David Eby","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8554,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8554,"CON":0.1441,"GRN":0.0005},"point":{"NDP":52.27,"CON":36.22,"GRN":11.51,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":37.89,"median":52.23,"hi90":66.4},"CON":{"lo90":23.04,"median":36.32,"hi90":49.87},"GRN":{"lo90":2.67,"median":11.23,"hi90":21.01}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"leader_seat","note":"NDP leader David Eby.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low (safe seats)."}]},{"id":"339","name":"Vancouver-Quilchena","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Dallas Brodie","share":51.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":51.6,"NDP":38.9,"GRN":7.8,"IND":1.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":38.85,"CON":46.83,"GRN":7.91,"ONEBC":6.41},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Dallas Brodie","party_at_dissolution":"ONEBC","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8264,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1725,"CON":0.8264,"GRN":0.0009,"ONEBC":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":34.75,"CON":48.27,"GRN":10.46,"ONEBC":6.53,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":21.14,"median":34.54,"hi90":48.34},"CON":{"lo90":33.98,"median":48.35,"hi90":62.72},"GRN":{"lo90":2.29,"median":10.1,"hi90":19.51},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.19,"median":6.2,"hi90":13.82}},"baseline_moves":["Caroline Ying-Mei Wang (independent 2024, 1.7%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"new_party_leader","note":"Dallas Brodie (OneBC interim leader; elected Conservative 2024 with 51.6%) runs again for OneBC against a new Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in the default; seeded in the sensitivity run.","why_it_may_matter":"High. Splits the right-of-centre vote in a seat the Conservatives won narrowly in 2024; a sitting MLA's personal vote is not in the model. The 'seeded' sensitivity adds 15 points."}]},{"id":"340","name":"Vancouver-Renfrew","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Adrian Dix","share":63.2},"shares_2024":{"NDP":63.2,"CON":30.7,"GRN":6.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":62.49,"CON":27.66,"GRN":6.12,"ONEBC":3.73},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Adrian Dix","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9432,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9432,"CON":0.0564,"GRN":0.0004},"point":{"NDP":58.89,"CON":32.59,"GRN":8.51,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":44.43,"median":58.71,"hi90":72.26},"CON":{"lo90":19.44,"median":32.71,"hi90":46.39},"GRN":{"lo90":0.99,"median":8.3,"hi90":17.16}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"341","name":"Vancouver-South Granville","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Brenda Bailey","share":64.3},"shares_2024":{"NDP":64.3,"CON":25.0,"GRN":10.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":63.6,"CON":22.63,"GRN":10.73,"ONEBC":3.03},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Brenda Bailey","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9823,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9823,"CON":0.016,"GRN":0.0016,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":59.21,"CON":23.74,"GRN":13.93,"ONEBC":3.13,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":44.4,"median":59.12,"hi90":72.81},"CON":{"lo90":11.65,"median":23.63,"hi90":36.84},"GRN":{"lo90":4.37,"median":13.73,"hi90":24.08},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.76,"hi90":8.75}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Brenda Bailey (NDP) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate: loss of incumbent (The Writ docks a party 3-4 points when its incumbent leaves)."}]},{"id":"342","name":"Vancouver-Strathcona","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Joan Phillip","share":68.2},"shares_2024":{"NDP":68.2,"CON":17.1,"GRN":13.1,"OTH":1.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":67.51,"CON":15.69,"GRN":13.05,"ONEBC":2.08,"OTH":1.67},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Vacant","party_at_dissolution":null,"not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":"vacant"},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9907,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9907,"CON":0.0068,"GRN":0.0025},"point":{"NDP":61.74,"CON":17.93,"GRN":16.28,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":4.04},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":47.35,"median":61.58,"hi90":74.29},"CON":{"lo90":7.61,"median":17.95,"hi90":29.87},"GRN":{"lo90":6.25,"median":15.99,"hi90":27.1},"OTH":{"lo90":0.16,"median":3.86,"hi90":9.26}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"vacant","note":"Vacant: Joan Phillip (NDP) died 2026-08-28; no by-election. NDP candidate Amanda Burrows.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low (safe NDP seat)."}]},{"id":"343","name":"Vancouver-West End","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Spencer Chandra Herbert","share":63.0},"shares_2024":{"NDP":63.0,"CON":27.2,"GRN":9.1,"IND":0.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":62.48,"CON":25.02,"GRN":9.13,"ONEBC":3.36},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Spencer Chandra Herbert","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9612,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9612,"CON":0.0374,"GRN":0.0014},"point":{"NDP":58.59,"CON":29.37,"GRN":12.04,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":44.19,"median":58.45,"hi90":71.94},"CON":{"lo90":17.26,"median":29.44,"hi90":42.92},"GRN":{"lo90":3.23,"median":11.78,"hi90":21.42}},"baseline_moves":["Carl Turnbull (independent 2024, 0.7%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"344","name":"Vancouver-Yaletown","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Terry Yung","share":49.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":49.8,"CON":43.4,"GRN":6.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":49.13,"CON":38.71,"GRN":6.89,"ONEBC":5.27},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Terry Yung","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4998,"CON":0.5,"GRN":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":45.56,"CON":45.11,"GRN":9.33,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":31.68,"median":45.4,"hi90":59.1},"CON":{"lo90":31.53,"median":45.27,"hi90":59.2},"GRN":{"lo90":1.64,"median":9.04,"hi90":17.95}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"345","name":"Vernon-Lumby","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Harwinder Sandhu","share":42.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":42.7,"CON":41.0,"IND":15.4,"OTH":1.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":42.13,"CON":50.07,"ONEBC":6.85,"OTH":0.95},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Harwinder Sandhu","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8132,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1863,"CON":0.8132,"GRN":0.0002,"ONEBC":0.0003},"point":{"NDP":38.81,"CON":52.83,"GRN":1.22,"ONEBC":7.15,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":23.38,"median":38.17,"hi90":52.62},"CON":{"lo90":37.74,"median":52.63,"hi90":67.57},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.86,"hi90":7.95},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.04,"median":6.76,"hi90":15.25}},"baseline_moves":["Kevin Acton (independent 2024) runs again as CON"],"notes":[{"type":"returning_candidate","note":"Kevin Acton took 15.4% as an independent in 2024 and is the 2026 Conservative candidate (assumed the same person); v1 moves his 2024 vote to the Conservatives.","v1":"His 2024 votes are assigned to the Conservatives (rule: a returning candidate keeps their vote).","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: if his 2024 voters do not follow him, the Conservative share is overstated."}]},{"id":"346","name":"Victoria-Beacon Hill","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Grace Lore","share":47.4},"shares_2024":{"NDP":47.4,"GRN":33.5,"CON":19.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":46.83,"CON":17.35,"GRN":33.5,"ONEBC":2.33},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Grace Lore","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5532,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5532,"CON":0.0235,"GRN":0.4233},"point":{"NDP":41.31,"CON":19.53,"GRN":39.15,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":25.88,"median":41.13,"hi90":56.9},"CON":{"lo90":7.76,"median":19.76,"hi90":33.86},"GRN":{"lo90":22.97,"median":38.83,"hi90":53.58}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"notable_candidate","note":"The Conservatives dropped their candidate, Joachim Agou, on 2026-10-08 over social-media posts; he stays on the ballot as the Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low (safe NDP seat), but the Conservative share is likely overstated."}]},{"id":"347","name":"Victoria-Swan Lake","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Nina Krieger","share":56.0},"shares_2024":{"NDP":56.0,"GRN":23.2,"CON":20.2,"OTH":0.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":55.43,"CON":18.35,"GRN":23.16,"ONEBC":2.46,"OTH":0.61},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Nina Krieger","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9079,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9079,"CON":0.0242,"GRN":0.0679},"point":{"NDP":50.65,"CON":21.19,"GRN":28.16,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":34.99,"median":50.36,"hi90":65.68},"CON":{"lo90":9.12,"median":21.5,"hi90":35.26},"GRN":{"lo90":13.63,"median":27.7,"hi90":41.92}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"348","name":"West Kelowna-Peachland","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Macklin McCall","share":50.9},"shares_2024":{"CON":50.9,"NDP":27.9,"IND":21.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":33.04,"CON":57.47,"GRN":1.6,"ONEBC":7.89},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Macklin McCall","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9813,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0186,"CON":0.9813,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":30.18,"CON":66.74,"GRN":3.08,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":16.75,"median":29.79,"hi90":43.71},"CON":{"lo90":52.35,"median":66.69,"hi90":80.19},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.66,"hi90":10.21}},"baseline_moves":["Stephen Johnston (independent 2024, 21.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Stephen Johnston took 21.2% as an independent in 2024; not running. His vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"349","name":"West Vancouver-Capilano","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Lynne Block","share":46.7},"shares_2024":{"CON":46.7,"NDP":27.1,"IND":20.6,"GRN":5.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":32.13,"CON":53.43,"GRN":7.11,"ONEBC":7.33},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Lynne Block","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":true,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9595,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0396,"CON":0.9595,"GRN":0.0006,"ONEBC":0.0003},"point":{"NDP":28.2,"CON":54.86,"GRN":9.49,"ONEBC":7.45,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":15.26,"median":28.04,"hi90":41.02},"CON":{"lo90":40.77,"median":54.99,"hi90":68.93},"GRN":{"lo90":1.57,"median":9.2,"hi90":18.46},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.55,"median":7.08,"hi90":15.0}},"baseline_moves":["Karin Kirkpatrick (independent 2024, 20.6%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_moved","note":"Lynne Block (elected Conservative 2024) is running in North Vancouver-Seymour instead; open seat. In 2024 Karin Kirkpatrick (ex-BC United, later CentreBC founder) took 20.6% here as an independent; that vote is transferred.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: open seat; where Kirkpatrick's 2024 vote goes is an assumption."}]},{"id":"350","name":"West Vancouver-Sea to Sky","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"GRN","name":"Jeremy Valeriote","share":38.1},"shares_2024":{"GRN":38.1,"CON":35.6,"NDP":26.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":25.97,"CON":31.63,"GRN":38.08,"ONEBC":4.33},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jeremy Valeriote","party_at_dissolution":"GRN","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"GRN","prob":0.7017,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0283,"CON":0.27,"GRN":0.7017},"point":{"NDP":21.69,"CON":34.8,"GRN":43.51,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":9.9,"median":21.48,"hi90":34.68},"CON":{"lo90":21.45,"median":35.04,"hi90":49.38},"GRN":{"lo90":27.85,"median":43.26,"hi90":57.02}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"green_seat","note":"The Greens' other 2024 seat. Jeremy Valeriote (Green MLA, interim leader 2025) runs again; CentreBC runs Dan Wood.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"High: Green incumbency is not modelled, so v1 probably understates the Green."}]}],"changes":{"from_file":"2026-03-13_mainstreet-research.json","average":{"NDP":0.31,"CON":0.55,"GRN":-0.33,"ONEBC":-0.01,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":-0.53},"seat_median":{"NDP":0.0,"CON":0.0,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"p_majority":{"NDP":-0.0095,"CON":0.0173,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"p_minority":-0.0078,"leader_changes":["344"]},"average_series":{"NDP":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-22",null],["2024-10-29",null],["2024-11-05",null],["2024-11-12",null],["2024-11-19",null],["2024-11-26",null],["2024-12-03",null],["2024-12-10",null],["2024-12-17",null],["2024-12-24",null],["2024-12-31",null],["2025-01-07",null],["2025-01-14",null],["2025-01-21",null],["2025-01-28",45.54],["2025-02-04",45.74],["2025-02-11",45.87],["2025-02-18",45.9],["2025-02-25",45.83],["2025-03-04",45.67],["2025-03-11",45.46],["2025-03-18",45.23],["2025-03-25",45.02],["2025-04-01",44.88],["2025-04-08",44.84],["2025-04-15",44.84],["2025-04-22",44.82],["2025-04-29",44.74],["2025-05-06",44.6],["2025-05-13",44.4],["2025-05-20",44.15],["2025-05-27",43.84],["2025-06-03",43.49],["2025-06-10",43.13],["2025-06-17",42.78],["2025-06-24",42.46],["2025-07-01",42.18],["2025-07-08",41.94],["2025-07-15",41.76],["2025-07-22",41.66],["2025-07-29",41.73],["2025-08-05",41.98],["2025-08-12",42.28],["2025-08-19",42.58],["2025-08-26",42.9],["2025-09-02",43.25],["2025-09-09",43.61],["2025-09-16",43.92],["2025-09-23",44.15],["2025-09-30",44.28],["2025-10-07",44.31],["2025-10-14",44.24],["2025-10-21",44.05],["2025-10-28",43.75],["2025-11-04",43.38],["2025-11-11",43.0],["2025-11-18",42.72],["2025-11-25",42.54],["2025-12-02",42.44],["2025-12-09",42.39],["2025-12-16",42.37],["2025-12-23",42.37],["2025-12-30",42.39],["2026-01-06",42.42],["2026-01-13",42.37],["2026-01-20",42.18],["2026-01-27",41.83],["2026-02-03",41.43],["2026-02-10",41.04],["2026-02-17",40.7],["2026-02-24",40.43],["2026-03-03",40.23],["2026-03-10",40.11],["2026-03-17",40.04]],"CON":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-22",null],["2024-10-29",null],["2024-11-05",null],["2024-11-12",null],["2024-11-19",null],["2024-11-26",null],["2024-12-03",null],["2024-12-10",null],["2024-12-17",null],["2024-12-24",null],["2024-12-31",null],["2025-01-07",null],["2025-01-14",null],["2025-01-21",null],["2025-01-28",41.58],["2025-02-04",41.53],["2025-02-11",41.49],["2025-02-18",41.49],["2025-02-25",41.52],["2025-03-04",41.59],["2025-03-11",41.72],["2025-03-18",41.99],["2025-03-25",42.52],["2025-04-01",43.38],["2025-04-08",44.24],["2025-04-15",44.61],["2025-04-22",44.43],["2025-04-29",43.95],["2025-05-06",43.36],["2025-05-13",42.79],["2025-05-20",42.35],["2025-05-27",42.08],["2025-06-03",42.0],["2025-06-10",42.08],["2025-06-17",42.28],["2025-06-24",42.52],["2025-07-01",42.78],["2025-07-08",43.02],["2025-07-15",43.24],["2025-07-22",43.44],["2025-07-29",43.57],["2025-08-05",43.51],["2025-08-12",43.23],["2025-08-19",42.8],["2025-08-26",42.27],["2025-09-02",41.69],["2025-09-09",41.11],["2025-09-16",40.62],["2025-09-23",40.24],["2025-09-30",40.0],["2025-10-07",39.85],["2025-10-14",39.76],["2025-10-21",39.7],["2025-10-28",39.62],["2025-11-04",39.53],["2025-11-11",39.42],["2025-11-18",39.35],["2025-11-25",39.34],["2025-12-02",39.4],["2025-12-09",39.49],["2025-12-16",39.58],["2025-12-23",39.64],["2025-12-30",39.64],["2026-01-06",39.55],["2026-01-13",39.43],["2026-01-20",39.42],["2026-01-27",39.58],["2026-02-03",39.86],["2026-02-10",40.19],["2026-02-17",40.5],["2026-02-24",40.77],["2026-03-03",40.98],["2026-03-10",41.13],["2026-03-17",41.22]],"GRN":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-22",null],["2024-10-29",null],["2024-11-05",null],["2024-11-12",null],["2024-11-19",null],["2024-11-26",null],["2024-12-03",null],["2024-12-10",null],["2024-12-17",null],["2024-12-24",null],["2024-12-31",null],["2025-01-07",null],["2025-01-14",null],["2025-01-21",null],["2025-01-28",9.34],["2025-02-04",9.3],["2025-02-11",9.31],["2025-02-18",9.39],["2025-02-25",9.51],["2025-03-04",9.67],["2025-03-11",9.82],["2025-03-18",9.88],["2025-03-25",9.74],["2025-04-01",9.29],["2025-04-08",8.69],["2025-04-15",8.31],["2025-04-22",8.26],["2025-04-29",8.39],["2025-05-06",8.59],["2025-05-13",8.75],["2025-05-20",8.83],["2025-05-27",8.81],["2025-06-03",8.69],["2025-06-10",8.5],["2025-06-17",8.27],["2025-06-24",8.04],["2025-07-01",7.83],["2025-07-08",7.67],["2025-07-15",7.61],["2025-07-22",7.78],["2025-07-29",8.34],["2025-08-05",9.16],["2025-08-12",9.73],["2025-08-19",9.97],["2025-08-26",10.04],["2025-09-02",10.03],["2025-09-09",9.99],["2025-09-16",9.92],["2025-09-23",9.84],["2025-09-30",9.76],["2025-10-07",9.69],["2025-10-14",9.63],["2025-10-21",9.58],["2025-10-28",9.53],["2025-11-04",9.49],["2025-11-11",9.44],["2025-11-18",9.42],["2025-11-25",9.42],["2025-12-02",9.44],["2025-12-09",9.47],["2025-12-16",9.51],["2025-12-23",9.55],["2025-12-30",9.61],["2026-01-06",9.69],["2026-01-13",9.85],["2026-01-20",10.06],["2026-01-27",10.28],["2026-02-03",10.46],["2026-02-10",10.59],["2026-02-17",10.68],["2026-02-24",10.73],["2026-03-03",10.75],["2026-03-10",10.74],["2026-03-17",10.72]],"ONEBC":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-22",null],["2024-10-29",null],["2024-11-05",null],["2024-11-12",null],["2024-11-19",null],["2024-11-26",null],["2024-12-03",null],["2024-12-10",null],["2024-12-17",null],["2024-12-24",null],["2024-12-31",null],["2025-01-07",null],["2025-01-14",null],["2025-01-21",null],["2025-01-28",null],["2025-02-04",null],["2025-02-11",null],["2025-02-18",null],["2025-02-25",null],["2025-03-04",null],["2025-03-11",null],["2025-03-18",null],["2025-03-25",null],["2025-04-01",null],["2025-04-08",null],["2025-04-15",null],["2025-04-22",null],["2025-04-29",null],["2025-05-06",null],["2025-05-13",null],["2025-05-20",null],["2025-05-27",null],["2025-06-03",null],["2025-06-10",null],["2025-06-17",null],["2025-06-24",null],["2025-07-01",null],["2025-07-08",null],["2025-07-15",null],["2025-07-22",null],["2025-07-29",null],["2025-08-05",null],["2025-08-12",null],["2025-08-19",null],["2025-08-26",null],["2025-09-02",null],["2025-09-09",null],["2025-09-16",null],["2025-09-23",null],["2025-09-30",null],["2025-10-07",2.75],["2025-10-14",2.99],["2025-10-21",3.34],["2025-10-28",3.85],["2025-11-04",4.51],["2025-11-11",5.22],["2025-11-18",5.85],["2025-11-25",6.3],["2025-12-02",6.58],["2025-12-09",6.73],["2025-12-16",6.8],["2025-12-23",6.79],["2025-12-30",6.71],["2026-01-06",6.53],["2026-01-13",6.27],["2026-01-20",6.01],["2026-01-27",5.81],["2026-02-03",5.7],["2026-02-10",5.64],["2026-02-17",5.61],["2026-02-24",5.59],["2026-03-03",5.58],["2026-03-10",5.57],["2026-03-17",5.55]],"CENTRE":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-22",null],["2024-10-29",null],["2024-11-05",null],["2024-11-12",null],["2024-11-19",null],["2024-11-26",null],["2024-12-03",null],["2024-12-10",null],["2024-12-17",null],["2024-12-24",null],["2024-12-31",null],["2025-01-07",null],["2025-01-14",null],["2025-01-21",null],["2025-01-28",null],["2025-02-04",null],["2025-02-11",null],["2025-02-18",null],["2025-02-25",null],["2025-03-04",null],["2025-03-11",null],["2025-03-18",null],["2025-03-25",null],["2025-04-01",null],["2025-04-08",null],["2025-04-15",null],["2025-04-22",null],["2025-04-29",null],["2025-05-06",null],["2025-05-13",null],["2025-05-20",null],["2025-05-27",null],["2025-06-03",null],["2025-06-10",null],["2025-06-17",null],["2025-06-24",null],["2025-07-01",null],["2025-07-08",null],["2025-07-15",null],["2025-07-22",null],["2025-07-29",null],["2025-08-05",null],["2025-08-12",null],["2025-08-19",null],["2025-08-26",null],["2025-09-02",null],["2025-09-09",null],["2025-09-16",null],["2025-09-23",null],["2025-09-30",null],["2025-10-07",2.43],["2025-10-14",2.32],["2025-10-21",2.2],["2025-10-28",2.1],["2025-11-04",2.0],["2025-11-11",1.93],["2025-11-18",1.9],["2025-11-25",1.89],["2025-12-02",1.91],["2025-12-09",1.93],["2025-12-16",1.95],["2025-12-23",null],["2025-12-30",null],["2026-01-06",null],["2026-01-13",null],["2026-01-20",null],["2026-01-27",null],["2026-02-03",null],["2026-02-10",null],["2026-02-17",null],["2026-02-24",null],["2026-03-03",null],["2026-03-10",null],["2026-03-17",null]]},"file":"2026-03-17_angus-reid.json","publication":{"date":"2026-03-17","path":"by-date/2026-03-17.json","snapshots_that_day":["2026-03-17_angus-reid.json"],"new_polls":[{"date":"2026-03-17","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":499,"values":{"NDP":42,"CON":44,"GRN":9}}],"previous_date":"2026-03-13","changes":{"from_date":"2026-03-13","from_file":"2026-03-13_mainstreet-research.json","average":{"NDP":0.31,"CON":0.55,"GRN":-0.33,"ONEBC":-0.01,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":-0.53},"seat_median":{"NDP":0.0,"CON":0.0,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"p_majority":{"NDP":-0.0095,"CON":0.0173,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"p_minority":-0.0078,"leader_changes":[{"id":"344","name":"Vancouver-Yaletown","from":"NDP","to":"CON"}]}}}