{"title":"British Columbia 2026 seat projection","label":"Projection, not a poll.","version":"bc-shadow-v1","generated":"2026-10-10T05:16:15+00:00","backfilled":true,"as_of":"2026-02-09","freeze_at":"2026-10-23 23:59:59 America/Vancouver (PDT, UTC-7)","data_window":{"from":"2024-10-20","to":"2026-02-09","rule":"Polls dated after the 2024 election, up to the newest poll; kernel weights as on the site."},"poll_set_hash":"6fd1950ff712acce","polls_used":[{"date":"2025-01-26","firm":"Leger","sample":1001,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":42,"GRN":10},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-02-15","firm":"Pallas Data","sample":677,"values":{"NDP":48.8,"CON":40.7,"GRN":7.6},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-03-05","firm":"Research Co.","sample":802,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":42,"GRN":11},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-05-04","firm":"Liaison Strategies","sample":800,"values":{"NDP":45,"CON":47,"GRN":7},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-05-25","firm":"Leger","sample":1032,"values":{"NDP":45,"CON":39,"GRN":11},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-06-09","firm":"Research Co.","sample":803,"values":{"NDP":43,"CON":42,"GRN":8,"ONEBC":1,"CENTRE":2},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-06-24","firm":"Mainstreet Research","sample":943,"values":{"NDP":41,"CON":44,"GRN":7},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-09-05","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":811,"values":{"NDP":42,"CON":44,"GRN":10},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-10-03","firm":"Research Co.","sample":801,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":38,"GRN":12,"ONEBC":1,"CENTRE":3},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-10-06","firm":"Cardinal Research","sample":1088,"values":{"NDP":42.5,"CON":41.3,"GRN":10,"ONEBC":3.8},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-10-12","firm":"Leger","sample":1035,"values":{"NDP":48,"CON":38,"GRN":8},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-10-15","firm":"Abacus Data","sample":1000,"values":{"NDP":47,"CON":40,"GRN":8,"ONEBC":1,"CENTRE":3},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-10-25","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":1044,"values":{"NDP":40,"CON":41,"GRN":11,"ONEBC":5,"CENTRE":1},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-11-25","firm":"EKOS","sample":889,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":35,"GRN":9,"ONEBC":8,"CENTRE":2},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-11-25","firm":"Yorkville Strategies","sample":600,"values":{"NDP":40,"CON":42,"GRN":8,"ONEBC":5},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-12-01","firm":"Angus Reid","sample":463,"values":{"NDP":43,"CON":40,"GRN":11},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-12-13","firm":"Pallas Data","sample":923,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":39,"GRN":9,"ONEBC":7},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2025-12-18","firm":"Mainstreet Research","sample":1902,"values":{"NDP":41,"CON":41,"GRN":10,"ONEBC":7},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-01-26","firm":"Leger","sample":1003,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":38,"GRN":9,"ONEBC":6},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]},{"date":"2026-02-09","firm":"Leger","sample":1007,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":39,"GRN":9,"ONEBC":5},"wikipedia_matched":true,"filled_from_wikipedia":[]}],"new_polls":[{"date":"2026-02-09","firm":"Leger","sample":1007,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":39,"GRN":9,"ONEBC":5}}],"revised_polls":[],"average":{"NDP":{"mean":43.87,"lo":43.26,"hi":44.48},"CON":{"mean":38.67,"lo":37.96,"hi":39.37},"GRN":{"mean":9.05,"lo":8.82,"hi":9.27},"ONEBC":{"mean":5.54,"lo":4.93,"hi":6.14},"CENTRE":null},"model_target":{"NDP":43.87,"CON":38.67,"GRN":9.05,"ONEBC":5.54,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.88},"parameters":{"sigma_nat":4.601,"sigma_reg":5.246,"sigma_rid":6.785,"df_nat":4,"df_reg":4,"df_rid":4,"alpha":0.5,"draws":10000,"seed":20261024,"absent_transfers":{"GRN":{"NDP":0.6,"CON":0.21,"CENTRE":0.13,"ONEBC":0.03,"OTH":0.03},"ONEBC":{"CON":0.85,"NDP":0.1,"OTH":0.05},"CENTRE":{"CON":0.5,"NDP":0.37,"GRN":0.13}},"bc_united_residual_transfer":{"CENTRE":0.3,"CON":0.44,"NDP":0.175,"GRN":0.05,"OTH":0.035},"new_party_rules":{"ONEBC":"proxy","CENTRE":"proxy"},"regions":["Metro Vancouver","Fraser Valley","Vancouver Island","Interior and North"],"majority":47,"independents_carried":{"306":[{"name":"Jordan Kealy","label_2024":"Conservative Party","kind":"party","share_2024":74.4,"carried":29.0,"sdlog":0.57}]},"independent_rule":{"party":{"median":0.39,"sdlog":0.57},"independent":{"median":1.05,"sdlog":0.25}},"regional_adjustment":{"applied":false,"rule":"shrink province-wide swing toward regional poll splits","groups":{}}},"province":{"seats":{"NDP":{"seats_median":50.0,"seats_mean":49.9794,"seats_lo90":29.0,"seats_hi90":69.0,"p_majority":0.6398,"p_most_seats":0.666,"vote_median":45.3459,"vote_lo90":38.3827,"vote_hi90":52.0807},"CON":{"seats_median":41.0,"seats_mean":41.0824,"seats_lo90":22.0,"seats_hi90":62.0,"p_majority":0.2978,"p_most_seats":0.3188,"vote_median":42.4027,"vote_lo90":35.7717,"vote_hi90":49.214},"GRN":{"seats_median":1.0,"seats_mean":1.6955,"seats_lo90":0.0,"seats_hi90":4.0,"p_majority":0.0,"p_most_seats":0.0001,"vote_median":8.7241,"vote_lo90":5.0366,"vote_hi90":12.3284},"ONEBC":{"seats_median":0.0,"seats_mean":0.0072,"seats_lo90":0.0,"seats_hi90":0.0,"p_majority":0.0,"p_most_seats":0.0,"vote_median":2.3573,"vote_lo90":1.0792,"vote_hi90":3.777},"CENTRE":{"seats_median":0.0,"seats_mean":0.0,"seats_lo90":0.0,"seats_hi90":0.0,"p_majority":0.0,"p_most_seats":0.0,"vote_median":0.0371,"vote_lo90":0.0099,"vote_hi90":0.0828},"OTH":{"seats_median":0.0,"seats_mean":0.2355,"seats_lo90":0.0,"seats_hi90":1.0,"p_majority":0.0,"p_most_seats":0.0,"vote_median":1.0853,"vote_lo90":0.5087,"vote_hi90":1.7547}},"p_minority":0.0624,"p_tied_most_seats":0.0151,"ridings_led":{"NDP":52,"CON":39,"GRN":2,"ONEBC":0,"CENTRE":0,"OTH":0},"ridings_led_point":{"NDP":52,"CON":39,"GRN":2,"ONEBC":0,"CENTRE":0,"OTH":0},"categories":{"Solid":17,"Likely":31,"Leans":21,"Toss-up":24},"toss_ups":24,"seat_histogram":{"NDP":{"0":6,"1":2,"2":5,"3":6,"5":6,"6":2,"7":6,"8":6,"9":6,"10":3,"11":5,"12":5,"13":15,"14":11,"15":12,"16":11,"17":14,"18":18,"19":16,"20":28,"21":18,"22":37,"23":24,"24":28,"25":36,"26":47,"27":51,"28":45,"29":60,"30":63,"31":70,"32":86,"33":96,"34":108,"35":132,"36":146,"37":155,"38":161,"39":174,"40":208,"41":277,"42":249,"43":267,"44":255,"45":292,"46":334,"47":304,"48":371,"49":342,"50":389,"51":384,"52":370,"53":342,"54":368,"55":315,"56":334,"57":321,"58":271,"59":241,"60":243,"61":230,"62":214,"63":193,"64":157,"65":121,"66":120,"67":120,"68":89,"69":83,"70":68,"71":63,"72":56,"73":45,"74":35,"75":33,"76":22,"77":35,"78":18,"79":13,"80":11,"81":14,"82":10,"83":9,"84":11,"85":5,"86":9,"87":4,"88":6,"89":3,"90":4,"91":2},"CON":{"0":1,"1":2,"2":5,"3":4,"4":7,"5":8,"6":8,"7":8,"8":7,"9":16,"10":6,"11":12,"12":14,"13":20,"14":22,"15":24,"16":40,"17":39,"18":42,"19":47,"20":79,"21":55,"22":74,"23":109,"24":116,"25":113,"26":135,"27":152,"28":164,"29":205,"30":232,"31":255,"32":250,"33":287,"34":308,"35":325,"36":320,"37":341,"38":373,"39":363,"40":381,"41":379,"42":346,"43":354,"44":335,"45":341,"46":298,"47":259,"48":242,"49":280,"50":238,"51":215,"52":200,"53":148,"54":143,"55":158,"56":126,"57":115,"58":97,"59":91,"60":66,"61":75,"62":63,"63":44,"64":42,"65":31,"66":43,"67":36,"68":31,"69":27,"70":29,"71":23,"72":26,"73":13,"74":19,"75":14,"76":11,"77":6,"78":8,"79":8,"80":11,"81":4,"82":2,"83":5,"84":4,"85":7,"86":4,"87":2,"88":2,"89":3,"90":2,"91":1,"92":4},"GRN":{"0":2014,"1":3019,"2":2753,"3":1329,"4":493,"5":201,"6":84,"7":36,"8":33,"9":12,"10":12,"11":5,"12":3,"13":2,"15":2,"25":1,"46":1},"ONEBC":{"0":9954,"1":41,"2":2,"4":1,"9":1,"14":1},"OTH":{"0":7647,"1":2351,"2":2}},"projected_vote":{"NDP":45.52,"CON":42.41,"GRN":8.64,"ONEBC":2.35,"CENTRE":0.03,"OTH":1.04}},"ridings":[{"id":"258","name":"Abbotsford-Mission","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Reann Gasper","share":55.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":55.4,"NDP":44.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.04,"CON":49.25,"ONEBC":6.71},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Vacant","party_at_dissolution":null,"not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":"vacant"},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5876,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4122,"CON":0.5876,"ONEBC":0.0001,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":43.26,"CON":47.25,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":6.75,"CENTRE":0.04,"OTH":2.7},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":28.14,"median":43.48,"hi90":58.11},"CON":{"lo90":31.36,"median":46.87,"hi90":61.74},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.15,"median":6.44,"hi90":14.88},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.02,"hi90":0.77},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.27,"hi90":8.41}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"vacant","note":"Vacant: Reann Gasper (Conservative) resigned 2026-08-22; the 2026-09-26 by-election was cancelled by dissolution. Kerry-Lynne Findlay is not a candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: no incumbent."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"259","name":"Abbotsford South","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Bruce Banman","share":61.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":61.6,"NDP":35.2,"IND":3.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":35.61,"CON":56.64,"ONEBC":7.74},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Bruce Banman","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8734,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1262,"CON":0.8734,"ONEBC":0.0004},"point":{"NDP":35.93,"CON":56.06,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":8.01,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":21.95,"median":36.29,"hi90":51.5},"CON":{"lo90":40.01,"median":55.64,"hi90":70.32},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.52,"median":7.62,"hi90":16.76}},"baseline_moves":["Amandeep Singh (independent 2024, 3.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Bruce Banman: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"260","name":"Abbotsford West","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Korky Neufeld","share":58.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":58.4,"NDP":36.9,"IND":4.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":37.72,"CON":54.8,"ONEBC":7.49},"running":["NDP","CON","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Korky Neufeld","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8965,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1035,"CON":0.8965},"point":{"NDP":38.87,"CON":61.09,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.05,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":24.24,"median":38.95,"hi90":53.84},"CON":{"lo90":45.97,"median":60.87,"hi90":75.59},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.01,"hi90":0.84}},"baseline_moves":["James Davison (independent 2024, 4.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"261","name":"Boundary-Similkameen","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Donegal Wilson","share":48.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":48.4,"NDP":42.6,"GRN":5.9,"IND":3.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":42.89,"CON":45.07,"GRN":5.89,"ONEBC":6.14},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Donegal Wilson","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5442,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5442,"CON":0.4557,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":47.68,"CON":45.78,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":6.55,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.97,"median":47.52,"hi90":61.96},"CON":{"lo90":31.24,"median":45.85,"hi90":60.45},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.43,"median":6.1,"hi90":14.54}},"baseline_moves":["Sean Taylor (independent 2024, 3.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Donegal Wilson: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"262","name":"Bulkley Valley-Stikine","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Sharon L. Hartwell","share":52.3},"shares_2024":{"CON":52.3,"NDP":38.9,"GRN":6.3,"OTH":2.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":38.35,"CON":46.49,"GRN":6.33,"ONEBC":6.34,"OTH":2.49},"running":["NDP","CON","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Sharon Hartwell","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7144,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.2854,"CON":0.7144,"OTH":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":42.85,"CON":51.42,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":5.73},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":28.88,"median":42.6,"hi90":56.51},"CON":{"lo90":37.43,"median":51.56,"hi90":65.45},"OTH":{"lo90":0.77,"median":5.36,"hi90":12.07}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"263","name":"Burnaby Centre","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Anne Kang","share":57.3},"shares_2024":{"NDP":57.3,"CON":42.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":56.57,"CON":38.25,"ONEBC":5.18},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Anne Kang","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8311,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8311,"CON":0.1689},"point":{"NDP":57.53,"CON":42.15,"GRN":0.33,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":43.0,"median":56.88,"hi90":70.37},"CON":{"lo90":28.31,"median":41.97,"hi90":55.67},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.14,"hi90":5.46}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"264","name":"Burnaby East","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Reah Arora","share":51.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.8,"CON":40.5,"GRN":7.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":51.21,"CON":36.25,"GRN":7.63,"ONEBC":4.91},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Rohini Arora","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8572,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8572,"CON":0.1424,"GRN":0.0004},"point":{"NDP":51.26,"CON":35.2,"GRN":8.5,"ONEBC":5.04,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":37.06,"median":51.15,"hi90":64.97},"CON":{"lo90":22.22,"median":35.22,"hi90":48.99},"GRN":{"lo90":0.94,"median":8.2,"hi90":16.95},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.71,"hi90":11.57}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"265","name":"Burnaby-New Westminster","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Raj Chouhan","share":60.0},"shares_2024":{"NDP":60.0,"CON":34.7,"IND":5.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":60.65,"CON":34.32,"GRN":0.4,"ONEBC":4.63},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Raj Chouhan","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9255,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9255,"CON":0.0745},"point":{"NDP":61.57,"CON":37.67,"GRN":0.76,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":46.95,"median":61.08,"hi90":73.92},"CON":{"lo90":24.29,"median":37.52,"hi90":51.39},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.47,"hi90":6.0}},"baseline_moves":["Daniel Kofi Ampong (independent 2024, 5.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"266","name":"Burnaby North","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Janet Routledge","share":53.3},"shares_2024":{"NDP":53.3,"CON":43.0,"IND":3.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":53.57,"CON":40.64,"GRN":0.28,"ONEBC":5.51},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Janet Routledge","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8163,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8163,"CON":0.1837},"point":{"NDP":53.91,"CON":39.78,"GRN":0.63,"ONEBC":5.68,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":38.83,"median":53.31,"hi90":67.05},"CON":{"lo90":25.88,"median":39.63,"hi90":53.57},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.33,"hi90":5.77},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":5.27,"hi90":12.51}},"baseline_moves":["Martin Kendell (independent 2024, 3.7%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"267","name":"Burnaby South-Metrotown","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Paul Choi","share":49.3},"shares_2024":{"NDP":49.3,"CON":41.6,"GRN":6.3,"IND":1.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":49.44,"CON":38.81,"GRN":6.48,"ONEBC":5.27},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Paul Choi","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.786,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.786,"CON":0.2136,"GRN":0.0002,"ONEBC":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":49.52,"CON":37.8,"GRN":7.27,"ONEBC":5.41,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":35.24,"median":49.53,"hi90":63.3},"CON":{"lo90":24.16,"median":37.78,"hi90":51.95},"GRN":{"lo90":0.23,"median":6.9,"hi90":15.12},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":5.01,"hi90":11.97}},"baseline_moves":["Meiling Chia (independent 2024, 1.9%) not running: transferred","MichaelAngelo Abc RobinHood (independent 2024, 0.9%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"268","name":"Cariboo-Chilcotin","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Lorne Doerkson","share":69.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":69.6,"NDP":30.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":29.99,"CON":61.57,"ONEBC":8.43},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Lorne Doerkson","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9806,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0194,"CON":0.9806},"point":{"NDP":30.9,"CON":68.77,"GRN":0.33,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":17.05,"median":30.49,"hi90":44.67},"CON":{"lo90":53.83,"median":68.08,"hi90":81.38},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.13,"hi90":6.44}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"leader_seat","note":"Conservative interim leader Lorne Doerkson.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low (safe seats)."}]},{"id":"269","name":"Chilliwack-Cultus Lake","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"A'aliya Warbus","share":54.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":54.6,"NDP":45.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.83,"CON":48.55,"ONEBC":6.61},"running":["NDP","CON"],"incumbent":{"name":"Áʼa꞉líya Warbus","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6743,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3257,"CON":0.6743},"point":{"NDP":46.03,"CON":53.97,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":30.9,"median":46.12,"hi90":61.58},"CON":{"lo90":38.42,"median":53.88,"hi90":69.1}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Áʼa꞉líya Warbus: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"270","name":"Chilliwack North","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Heather Maahs","share":54.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":54.6,"NDP":37.7,"GRN":5.5,"IND":2.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":37.16,"CON":48.46,"GRN":5.5,"ONEBC":6.61,"CENTRE":2.26},"running":["NDP","CON","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Heather Maahs","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7881,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.2119,"CON":0.7881},"point":{"NDP":42.81,"CON":56.31,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.88,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":27.8,"median":42.81,"hi90":57.99},"CON":{"lo90":41.0,"median":56.35,"hi90":71.46},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.83,"hi90":2.01}},"baseline_moves":["Dan Grice (independent 2024) runs again as CENTRE"],"notes":[{"type":"returning_candidate","note":"Dan Grice took 2.3% as an independent in 2024 and is the 2026 CentreBC candidate; v1 moves his 2024 vote to CentreBC.","v1":"His 2024 votes are assigned to CentreBC.","why_it_may_matter":"Low."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"271","name":"Columbia River-Revelstoke","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Scott McInnis","share":47.9},"shares_2024":{"CON":47.9,"NDP":44.3,"GRN":7.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":43.69,"CON":42.69,"GRN":7.82,"ONEBC":5.81},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Scott McInnis","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5788,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4205,"CON":0.5788,"GRN":0.0007},"point":{"NDP":44.3,"CON":47.0,"GRN":8.7,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":29.25,"median":44.06,"hi90":58.97},"CON":{"lo90":32.63,"median":47.09,"hi90":62.18},"GRN":{"lo90":0.66,"median":8.39,"hi90":17.66}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Scott McInnis: left or was removed from the Conservative caucus in September 2026 and returned on 2026-09-21; Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low."}]},{"id":"272","name":"Coquitlam-Burke Mountain","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Jodie Wickens","share":50.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":50.8,"CON":49.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":50.2,"CON":43.84,"ONEBC":5.96},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jodie Wickens","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5602,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5602,"CON":0.4398},"point":{"NDP":51.16,"CON":48.51,"GRN":0.33,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":36.57,"median":50.55,"hi90":64.14},"CON":{"lo90":34.35,"median":48.2,"hi90":62.1},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.13,"hi90":5.3}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"273","name":"Coquitlam-Maillardville","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Jennifer Blatherwick","share":51.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.8,"CON":39.6,"GRN":6.3,"IND":2.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":51.75,"CON":36.77,"GRN":6.49,"ONEBC":4.98},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jennifer Blatherwick","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7773,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7773,"CON":0.2223,"GRN":0.0004},"point":{"NDP":52.39,"CON":40.32,"GRN":7.29,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":38.14,"median":52.23,"hi90":66.12},"CON":{"lo90":26.9,"median":40.34,"hi90":54.61},"GRN":{"lo90":0.4,"median":6.96,"hi90":15.32}},"baseline_moves":["Ken Holowanky (independent 2024, 2.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"274","name":"Courtenay-Comox","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Brennan Day","share":38.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":38.8,"NDP":38.6,"GRN":20.7,"IND":1.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":38.55,"CON":35.71,"GRN":20.88,"ONEBC":4.85},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Brennan Day","party_at_dissolution":"IND","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.4911,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4702,"CON":0.4911,"GRN":0.0387},"point":{"NDP":38.66,"CON":38.81,"GRN":22.52,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":23.84,"median":38.54,"hi90":53.51},"CON":{"lo90":24.49,"median":38.96,"hi90":54.32},"GRN":{"lo90":9.4,"median":22.1,"hi90":35.52}},"baseline_moves":["John Hedican (independent 2024, 1.5%) not running: transferred","Devin Howell (independent 2024, 0.4%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Brennan Day left the Conservative caucus on 2026-08-26 and returned after the writ; Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low."}]},{"id":"275","name":"Cowichan Valley","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Debra Toporowski","share":40.5},"shares_2024":{"NDP":40.5,"CON":37.6,"GRN":19.8,"IND":1.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":40.51,"CON":34.7,"GRN":19.97,"ONEBC":4.71,"OTH":0.1},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Debra Toporowski","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5548,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5548,"CON":0.4142,"GRN":0.0309,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":39.53,"CON":36.49,"GRN":20.99,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.99},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":24.64,"median":39.36,"hi90":54.08},"CON":{"lo90":22.87,"median":36.71,"hi90":51.56},"GRN":{"lo90":8.4,"median":20.35,"hi90":33.3},"OTH":{"lo90":0.13,"median":2.62,"hi90":8.61}},"baseline_moves":["Eden Haythornthwaite (independent 2024, 1.2%) not running: transferred","Jon Coleman (independent 2024, 0.9%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"276","name":"Delta North","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Ravi Kahlon","share":52.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":52.7,"CON":40.2,"GRN":6.2,"OTH":0.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":52.08,"CON":36.0,"GRN":6.2,"ONEBC":4.87,"OTH":0.84},"running":["NDP","CON","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Ravi Kahlon","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8513,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8513,"CON":0.1487},"point":{"NDP":57.66,"CON":41.37,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.97,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":44.04,"median":57.57,"hi90":70.91},"CON":{"lo90":27.99,"median":41.41,"hi90":55.18},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.02,"median":0.91,"hi90":2.06}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Ravi Kahlon (NDP) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate: loss of incumbent (The Writ docks a party 3-4 points when its incumbent leaves)."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"277","name":"Delta South","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Ian Paton","share":55.1},"shares_2024":{"CON":55.1,"NDP":44.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.34,"CON":48.98,"ONEBC":6.67},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Ian Paton","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6061,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3936,"CON":0.6061,"ONEBC":0.0003},"point":{"NDP":44.57,"CON":48.22,"GRN":0.33,"ONEBC":6.89,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":30.03,"median":44.08,"hi90":58.07},"CON":{"lo90":33.98,"median":47.96,"hi90":61.18},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.13,"hi90":5.31},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.25,"median":6.5,"hi90":14.01}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Ian Paton: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."},{"type":"notable_candidate","note":"Jim McMurtry (OneBC's first nominee; independent in Surrey-Serpentine River in 2024, PPC federally in 2025) runs here against incumbent Ian Paton (Conservative).","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate."}]},{"id":"278","name":"Esquimalt-Colwood","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Darlene Rotchford","share":51.5},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.5,"CON":29.2,"GRN":19.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":50.86,"CON":26.29,"GRN":19.31,"ONEBC":3.54},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Darlene Rotchford","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9051,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9051,"CON":0.075,"GRN":0.0199},"point":{"NDP":50.89,"CON":28.27,"GRN":20.84,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":35.55,"median":50.9,"hi90":66.21},"CON":{"lo90":15.13,"median":28.4,"hi90":43.27},"GRN":{"lo90":8.13,"median":20.35,"hi90":33.83}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"279","name":"Fraser-Nicola","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Tony Luck","share":54.3},"shares_2024":{"CON":54.3,"NDP":36.4,"GRN":9.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":35.92,"CON":48.23,"GRN":9.27,"ONEBC":6.58},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Tony Luck","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8592,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1401,"CON":0.8592,"GRN":0.0007},"point":{"NDP":36.49,"CON":53.25,"GRN":10.26,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":21.8,"median":36.24,"hi90":50.65},"CON":{"lo90":38.74,"median":53.38,"hi90":68.52},"GRN":{"lo90":1.61,"median":9.94,"hi90":19.72}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"280","name":"Juan de Fuca-Malahat","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Dana Lajeunesse","share":38.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":38.8,"CON":38.2,"GRN":23.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":38.29,"CON":34.07,"GRN":23.01,"ONEBC":4.63},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Dana Lajeunesse","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5811,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5811,"CON":0.3325,"GRN":0.0864},"point":{"NDP":36.83,"CON":31.85,"GRN":24.09,"ONEBC":4.58,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.65},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":21.95,"median":36.67,"hi90":51.45},"CON":{"lo90":18.08,"median":31.89,"hi90":46.57},"GRN":{"lo90":10.67,"median":23.53,"hi90":37.06},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.2,"hi90":11.34},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.28,"hi90":8.3}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"281","name":"Kamloops Centre","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Peter Milobar","share":48.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":48.8,"NDP":40.9,"GRN":10.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":40.39,"CON":43.44,"GRN":10.25,"ONEBC":5.92},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Peter Milobar","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5639,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4343,"CON":0.5639,"GRN":0.0015,"ONEBC":0.0003},"point":{"NDP":39.2,"CON":41.23,"GRN":11.0,"ONEBC":5.9,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.67},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":24.37,"median":38.78,"hi90":53.1},"CON":{"lo90":26.74,"median":41.27,"hi90":56.09},"GRN":{"lo90":2.07,"median":10.62,"hi90":20.69},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":5.51,"hi90":13.53},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.21,"hi90":8.2}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Peter Milobar: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."}]},{"id":"282","name":"Kamloops-North Thompson","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Ward Stamer","share":59.7},"shares_2024":{"CON":59.7,"NDP":32.9,"GRN":7.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":32.46,"CON":52.94,"GRN":7.36,"ONEBC":7.24},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Ward Stamer","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8412,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1581,"CON":0.8412,"ONEBC":0.0007},"point":{"NDP":38.21,"CON":54.06,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":7.74,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":24.32,"median":37.88,"hi90":52.57},"CON":{"lo90":39.42,"median":54.22,"hi90":68.39},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.66,"median":7.47,"hi90":15.74}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"283","name":"Kelowna Centre","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Kristina Loewen","share":42.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":42.8,"NDP":42.7,"IND":10.1,"GRN":4.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.99,"CON":44.62,"GRN":4.31,"ONEBC":6.07},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Kristina Loewen","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5873,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5873,"CON":0.4125,"ONEBC":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":48.64,"CON":44.94,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":6.42,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":33.68,"median":48.44,"hi90":62.99},"CON":{"lo90":30.6,"median":44.96,"hi90":59.66},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.3,"median":6.07,"hi90":14.25}},"baseline_moves":["Michael Humer (independent 2024, 10.1%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Michael Humer took 10.1% as an independent in 2024; not running. His vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"284","name":"Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Tara Armstrong","share":53.9},"shares_2024":{"CON":53.9,"NDP":35.2,"IND":6.5,"GRN":4.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":36.47,"CON":51.65,"GRN":4.83,"ONEBC":7.05},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Tara Armstrong","party_at_dissolution":"IND","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8218,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1779,"CON":0.8218,"GRN":0.0001,"ONEBC":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":36.45,"CON":50.78,"GRN":5.52,"ONEBC":7.26,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":21.9,"median":36.17,"hi90":50.71},"CON":{"lo90":35.55,"median":50.69,"hi90":65.75},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":5.17,"hi90":13.61},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.16,"median":6.96,"hi90":15.59}},"baseline_moves":["Kevin Kraft (independent 2024, 6.5%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Tara Armstrong (elected Conservative 2024; OneBC co-founder, then independent) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate."}]},{"id":"285","name":"Kelowna-Mission","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Gavin Dew","share":51.5},"shares_2024":{"CON":51.5,"NDP":32.6,"IND":11.0,"GRN":4.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":35.03,"CON":52.1,"GRN":5.76,"ONEBC":7.12},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Gavin Dew","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8582,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1411,"CON":0.8582,"GRN":0.0002,"ONEBC":0.0005},"point":{"NDP":34.97,"CON":51.19,"GRN":6.51,"ONEBC":7.32,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":20.43,"median":34.57,"hi90":49.1},"CON":{"lo90":36.35,"median":51.39,"hi90":65.92},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":6.15,"hi90":14.97},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.22,"median":7.04,"hi90":15.54}},"baseline_moves":["Ashley Ramsay (independent 2024, 11.0%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Ashley Ramsay took 11.0% as an independent in 2024; not running. Her vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"286","name":"Kootenay Central","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Brittny Anderson","share":39.6},"shares_2024":{"NDP":39.6,"CON":31.7,"GRN":18.7,"IND":10.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":41.71,"CON":34.16,"GRN":19.49,"ONEBC":4.64},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Brittny Anderson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.6931,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.6931,"CON":0.2811,"GRN":0.0257,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":41.35,"CON":32.87,"GRN":21.06,"ONEBC":4.72,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":26.29,"median":41.17,"hi90":56.15},"CON":{"lo90":18.68,"median":32.9,"hi90":48.06},"GRN":{"lo90":8.71,"median":20.7,"hi90":32.7},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.34,"hi90":11.94}},"baseline_moves":["Corinne Mori (independent 2024, 10.0%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Corinne Mori took 10.0% as an independent in 2024; not running. Her vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"287","name":"Kootenay-Monashee","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Steve Morissette","share":52.0},"shares_2024":{"NDP":52.0,"CON":38.9,"GRN":9.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":51.4,"CON":34.78,"GRN":9.11,"ONEBC":4.71},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Steve Morissette","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8606,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8606,"CON":0.1378,"GRN":0.0015,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":51.41,"CON":33.7,"GRN":10.07,"ONEBC":4.83,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":35.82,"median":51.17,"hi90":65.79},"CON":{"lo90":19.41,"median":33.78,"hi90":48.57},"GRN":{"lo90":1.37,"median":9.76,"hi90":19.43},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.42,"hi90":12.38}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"288","name":"Kootenay-Rockies","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Pete Davis","share":42.7},"shares_2024":{"CON":42.7,"IND":30.4,"NDP":21.7,"GRN":5.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":29.34,"CON":55.59,"GRN":7.46,"ONEBC":7.61},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Pete Davis","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.944,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0552,"CON":0.944,"GRN":0.0004,"ONEBC":0.0004},"point":{"NDP":29.17,"CON":54.67,"GRN":8.34,"ONEBC":7.83,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":15.3,"median":28.91,"hi90":42.71},"CON":{"lo90":39.79,"median":54.73,"hi90":69.46},"GRN":{"lo90":0.44,"median":7.95,"hi90":17.59},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.41,"median":7.56,"hi90":16.14}},"baseline_moves":["Tom Shypitka (independent 2024, 30.4%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Tom Shypitka (ex-BC United MLA) took 30.4% as an independent in 2024; not running. His vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"289","name":"Ladysmith-Oceanside","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Stephanie Higginson","share":41.5},"shares_2024":{"NDP":41.5,"CON":35.5,"IND":16.3,"GRN":6.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":45.19,"CON":41.25,"GRN":7.95,"ONEBC":5.61},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Stephanie Higginson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.4997,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4997,"CON":0.4995,"GRN":0.0008},"point":{"NDP":45.79,"CON":45.36,"GRN":8.84,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":30.09,"median":45.59,"hi90":60.61},"CON":{"lo90":30.66,"median":45.6,"hi90":60.72},"GRN":{"lo90":0.11,"median":8.35,"hi90":18.97}},"baseline_moves":["Adam Walker (independent 2024, 16.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Adam Walker took 16.3% as an independent in 2024; not running. His vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"290","name":"Langford-Highlands","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Ravi Parmar","share":51.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.9,"CON":37.4,"GRN":10.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":51.23,"CON":33.5,"GRN":10.73,"ONEBC":4.53},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Ravi Parmar","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8252,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8252,"CON":0.1729,"GRN":0.0018,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":50.27,"CON":35.36,"GRN":11.48,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.89},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":34.92,"median":50.03,"hi90":64.53},"CON":{"lo90":21.72,"median":35.34,"hi90":50.09},"GRN":{"lo90":1.66,"median":10.97,"hi90":21.82},"OTH":{"lo90":0.1,"median":2.52,"hi90":8.53}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"291","name":"Langley-Abbotsford","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Harman Bhangu","share":55.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":55.6,"NDP":33.7,"GRN":5.6,"IND":4.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":34.33,"CON":51.74,"GRN":5.87,"ONEBC":7.07,"OTH":0.98},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Harman Bhangu","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8423,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1573,"CON":0.8423,"GRN":0.0003,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":33.34,"CON":49.47,"GRN":6.45,"ONEBC":7.08,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.66},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":18.85,"median":33.12,"hi90":47.77},"CON":{"lo90":33.82,"median":49.3,"hi90":64.16},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":6.09,"hi90":14.28},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.1,"median":6.76,"hi90":15.35},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.26,"hi90":9.63}},"baseline_moves":["Karen Long (independent 2024, 4.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"292","name":"Langley-Walnut Grove","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Misty Van Popta","share":49.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":49.6,"NDP":44.8,"GRN":5.1,"IND":0.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.33,"CON":44.45,"GRN":5.17,"ONEBC":6.05},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Misty Van Popta","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5969,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4029,"CON":0.5969,"GRN":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":45.05,"CON":49.07,"GRN":5.88,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":29.44,"median":44.99,"hi90":60.46},"CON":{"lo90":33.53,"median":49.11,"hi90":64.24},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":5.47,"hi90":13.76}},"baseline_moves":["Carlos Suarez Rubio (independent 2024, 0.5%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"293","name":"Langley-Willowbrook","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Jody Toor","share":48.2},"shares_2024":{"CON":48.2,"NDP":44.4,"GRN":7.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":43.86,"CON":42.96,"GRN":7.34,"ONEBC":5.84},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jody Toor","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5411,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5411,"CON":0.4585,"GRN":0.0004},"point":{"NDP":43.85,"CON":41.95,"GRN":8.19,"ONEBC":6.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":28.02,"median":43.65,"hi90":58.81},"CON":{"lo90":26.42,"median":41.9,"hi90":57.39},"GRN":{"lo90":0.6,"median":7.83,"hi90":17.02},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":5.82,"hi90":14.03}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"294","name":"Maple Ridge East","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Lawrence Mok","share":47.0},"shares_2024":{"CON":47.0,"NDP":46.6,"GRN":6.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":46.05,"CON":41.92,"GRN":6.34,"ONEBC":5.7},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Lawrence Mok","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5142,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5142,"CON":0.4856,"GRN":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":45.43,"CON":44.67,"GRN":6.94,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.96},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":29.63,"median":45.22,"hi90":59.93},"CON":{"lo90":29.48,"median":44.58,"hi90":59.8},"GRN":{"lo90":0.01,"median":6.56,"hi90":15.22},"OTH":{"lo90":0.14,"median":2.5,"hi90":8.59}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"295","name":"Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows","region":"Fraser Valley","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Lisa Beare","share":54.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":54.9,"CON":45.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":54.2,"CON":40.33,"ONEBC":5.47},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Lisa Beare","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8193,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8193,"CON":0.1806,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":54.77,"CON":39.54,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":5.65,"CENTRE":0.04,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":39.93,"median":54.79,"hi90":69.34},"CON":{"lo90":24.57,"median":39.2,"hi90":54.12},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.04,"median":5.34,"hi90":13.5},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.02,"hi90":0.83}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"296","name":"Mid Island-Pacific Rim","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Josie Osborne","share":48.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":48.7,"CON":39.5,"GRN":11.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":48.13,"CON":35.28,"GRN":11.81,"ONEBC":4.78},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Josie Osborne","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7369,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7369,"CON":0.2611,"GRN":0.002},"point":{"NDP":48.54,"CON":38.52,"GRN":12.94,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":33.28,"median":48.39,"hi90":63.39},"CON":{"lo90":23.91,"median":38.68,"hi90":53.57},"GRN":{"lo90":2.45,"median":12.48,"hi90":23.98}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"297","name":"Nanaimo-Gabriola Island","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Sheila Malcolmson","share":52.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":52.7,"CON":34.7,"GRN":12.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":52.11,"CON":31.09,"GRN":12.6,"ONEBC":4.2},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Sheila Malcolmson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8742,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8742,"CON":0.1227,"GRN":0.0031},"point":{"NDP":52.45,"CON":33.78,"GRN":13.77,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":36.97,"median":52.3,"hi90":67.1},"CON":{"lo90":20.0,"median":33.95,"hi90":48.49},"GRN":{"lo90":2.95,"median":13.26,"hi90":25.05}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"298","name":"Nanaimo-Lantzville","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"George Anderson","share":51.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.7,"CON":39.5,"GRN":8.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":51.11,"CON":35.36,"GRN":8.74,"ONEBC":4.79},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"George Anderson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7921,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7921,"CON":0.207,"GRN":0.0009},"point":{"NDP":50.24,"CON":37.43,"GRN":9.42,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.91},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":35.25,"median":50.02,"hi90":64.66},"CON":{"lo90":23.28,"median":37.45,"hi90":51.74},"GRN":{"lo90":0.43,"median":8.91,"hi90":19.44},"OTH":{"lo90":0.11,"median":2.51,"hi90":8.3}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"299","name":"Nechako Lakes","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"John Rustad","share":67.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":67.4,"NDP":27.2,"GRN":5.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":26.84,"CON":59.65,"GRN":5.34,"ONEBC":8.17},"running":["NDP","CON","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"John Rustad","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9773,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0227,"CON":0.9773},"point":{"NDP":31.0,"CON":65.7,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.3},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":17.89,"median":30.77,"hi90":44.46},"CON":{"lo90":52.05,"median":65.82,"hi90":78.81},"OTH":{"lo90":0.44,"median":2.85,"hi90":8.82}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"John Rustad (former Conservative leader, MLA since 2005) is not running. Elections BC's web table lists an unaffiliated candidate (Clint Lambert) whom its CSV omits.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: loss of a long-time incumbent in a safe seat."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"300","name":"New Westminster-Coquitlam","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Jennifer Whiteside","share":59.1},"shares_2024":{"NDP":59.1,"CON":29.8,"GRN":11.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":58.45,"CON":26.91,"GRN":11.03,"ONEBC":3.62},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jennifer Whiteside","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9647,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9647,"CON":0.0343,"GRN":0.001},"point":{"NDP":57.22,"CON":28.15,"GRN":11.78,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.84},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":42.8,"median":57.09,"hi90":70.34},"CON":{"lo90":16.23,"median":28.19,"hi90":41.24},"GRN":{"lo90":2.89,"median":11.41,"hi90":21.12},"OTH":{"lo90":0.09,"median":2.53,"hi90":7.87}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"301","name":"North Coast-Haida Gwaii","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Tamara Davidson","share":64.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":64.9,"CON":35.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":64.16,"CON":31.59,"ONEBC":4.25},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Tamara Davidson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9538,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9538,"CON":0.0462},"point":{"NDP":65.1,"CON":34.58,"GRN":0.33,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":49.52,"median":64.09,"hi90":77.92},"CON":{"lo90":20.58,"median":34.4,"hi90":48.94},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.16,"hi90":6.47}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"302","name":"North Island","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Anna Kindy","share":47.1},"shares_2024":{"CON":47.1,"NDP":44.9,"GRN":8.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.36,"CON":41.94,"GRN":8.0,"ONEBC":5.7},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Anna Kindy","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5308,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4681,"CON":0.5308,"GRN":0.001,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":43.73,"CON":44.66,"GRN":8.66,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.96},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":28.68,"median":43.52,"hi90":57.86},"CON":{"lo90":30.15,"median":44.78,"hi90":59.37},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":8.19,"hi90":18.35},"OTH":{"lo90":0.15,"median":2.53,"hi90":8.28}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"303","name":"North Vancouver-Lonsdale","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Bowinn Ma","share":64.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":64.9,"CON":35.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":64.12,"CON":31.63,"ONEBC":4.26},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Bowinn Ma","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9634,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9634,"CON":0.0366},"point":{"NDP":65.06,"CON":34.62,"GRN":0.33,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":50.45,"median":64.41,"hi90":77.49},"CON":{"lo90":21.3,"median":34.42,"hi90":47.93},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.13,"hi90":5.32}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"304","name":"North Vancouver-Seymour","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Susie Chant","share":52.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":52.8,"CON":35.8,"IND":5.8,"GRN":5.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":53.64,"CON":35.52,"GRN":6.04,"ONEBC":4.8},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Susie Chant","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8949,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8949,"CON":0.1048,"GRN":0.0002,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":53.77,"CON":34.49,"GRN":6.81,"ONEBC":4.93,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":39.58,"median":53.45,"hi90":67.42},"CON":{"lo90":21.37,"median":34.55,"hi90":47.95},"GRN":{"lo90":0.14,"median":6.56,"hi90":14.59},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.62,"hi90":11.45}},"baseline_moves":["Mitchell Baker (independent 2024, 5.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_moved","note":"Lynne Block (Conservative MLA for West Vancouver-Capilano) is the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: a sitting MLA as challenger."}]},{"id":"305","name":"Oak Bay-Gordon Head","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Diana Gibson","share":49.1},"shares_2024":{"NDP":49.1,"CON":28.9,"GRN":22.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":48.52,"CON":25.97,"GRN":22.01,"ONEBC":3.5},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Diana Gibson","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8781,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8781,"CON":0.0849,"GRN":0.037},"point":{"NDP":48.45,"CON":27.87,"GRN":23.68,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":33.03,"median":48.44,"hi90":63.65},"CON":{"lo90":14.77,"median":27.94,"hi90":42.61},"GRN":{"lo90":10.44,"median":23.17,"hi90":36.66}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"notable_candidate","note":"Andrew Weaver (Green leader 2015-2020 and MLA for Oak Bay-Gordon Head 2013-2020) runs for CentreBC.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"High: a former MLA with a personal following could take far more than CentreBC's provincial share."}]},{"id":"306","name":"Peace River North","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Jordan Kealy","share":74.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":74.4,"IND":20.1,"NDP":5.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":5.41,"CON":56.35,"ONEBC":7.76,"OTH":30.48},"running":["CON","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jordan Kealy","party_at_dissolution":"IND","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.7652,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"CON":0.7652,"OTH":0.2348},"point":{"NDP":0.0,"CON":65.29,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":34.71},"share":{"CON":{"lo90":22.36,"median":65.24,"hi90":85.61},"OTH":{"lo90":14.39,"median":34.76,"hi90":77.64}},"baseline_moves":["Jordan Kealy (Conservative Party 2024, 74.4%) runs as an independent: 29.0 points carried forward (retention 0.39), held out of the swing","Dan Davies (independent 2024, 20.1%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"independent_incumbent","note":"Jordan Kealy (elected Conservative 2024 with 74.4%) left the caucus in March 2025 and runs as an independent. The NDP has no candidate (incomplete paperwork). Two-way race: Kealy v. Conservative Curtis Whitford.","v1":"v1.1: Kealy's 2024 share (74.4%, as a Conservative) is carried forward at the median retention of former party MLAs who ran as independents (0.39, so 29.0 points; log-normal spread, 90% range about 11-70 points), held out of the swing; the Conservative label keeps the rest. The NDP's share (no candidate) moves in proportion to the candidates who run.","why_it_may_matter":"High. An incumbent independent can win: Perry Trimper (NL 2021) kept more than his party share; most former party MLAs keep 15-50%."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"307","name":"Peace River South","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Larry Neufeld","share":69.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":69.8,"IND":24.6,"NDP":5.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":12.04,"CON":76.17,"ONEBC":10.48,"OTH":1.31},"running":["NDP","CON","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Larry Neufeld","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9992,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0008,"CON":0.9992},"point":{"NDP":12.65,"CON":82.8,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":4.56},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":3.32,"median":12.9,"hi90":24.45},"CON":{"lo90":70.39,"median":82.38,"hi90":92.6},"OTH":{"lo90":0.56,"median":4.22,"hi90":10.59}},"baseline_moves":["Mike Bernier (independent 2024, 24.6%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Mike Bernier (ex-BC United MLA, CentreBC leader July-Sept 2026) took 24.6% as an independent in 2024; not running. His vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"308","name":"Penticton-Summerland","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Amelia Boultbee","share":41.4},"shares_2024":{"CON":41.4,"NDP":40.2,"IND":9.7,"GRN":5.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":40.61,"CON":47.42,"GRN":5.5,"ONEBC":6.46},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Amelia Boultbee","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6506,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3492,"CON":0.6506,"GRN":0.0001,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":40.63,"CON":46.49,"GRN":6.24,"ONEBC":6.65,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":25.82,"median":40.46,"hi90":55.73},"CON":{"lo90":31.22,"median":46.54,"hi90":61.6},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":5.91,"hi90":14.68},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":6.2,"hi90":14.68}},"baseline_moves":["Tracy St Claire (independent 2024) runs again as CON","Roger Harrington (independent 2024, 2.9%) not running: transferred","Anna Paddon (independent 2024, 0.5%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Amelia Boultbee (elected Conservative 2024) left the caucus in Oct 2025 and joined the NDP in July 2026; not running. OneBC runs Warren Hamm (former Conservative leadership candidate).","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: no incumbent; a OneBC candidate with a profile could split the Conservative vote."}]},{"id":"309","name":"Port Coquitlam","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Mike Farnworth","share":53.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":53.9,"CON":38.8,"GRN":6.4,"OTH":0.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":53.21,"CON":34.75,"GRN":6.4,"ONEBC":4.7,"OTH":0.94},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Mike Farnworth","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8563,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8563,"CON":0.1436,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":52.36,"CON":36.8,"GRN":6.99,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.85},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":38.23,"median":52.2,"hi90":65.65},"CON":{"lo90":23.56,"median":36.86,"hi90":50.17},"GRN":{"lo90":0.21,"median":6.69,"hi90":14.7},"OTH":{"lo90":0.24,"median":3.57,"hi90":9.04}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"310","name":"Port Moody-Burquitlam","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Rick Glumac","share":52.1},"shares_2024":{"NDP":52.1,"CON":40.5,"GRN":7.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":51.42,"CON":36.24,"GRN":7.44,"ONEBC":4.91},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Rick Glumac","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7906,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7906,"CON":0.2091,"GRN":0.0003},"point":{"NDP":52.01,"CON":39.7,"GRN":8.29,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":37.72,"median":51.92,"hi90":65.97},"CON":{"lo90":26.07,"median":39.78,"hi90":53.51},"GRN":{"lo90":0.87,"median":7.93,"hi90":16.4}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"311","name":"Powell River-Sunshine Coast","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Randene Neill","share":49.6},"shares_2024":{"NDP":49.6,"CON":35.7,"GRN":13.5,"IND":1.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":49.33,"CON":32.68,"GRN":13.57,"ONEBC":4.42},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Randene Neill","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8261,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8261,"CON":0.172,"GRN":0.0019},"point":{"NDP":49.64,"CON":35.55,"GRN":14.81,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":35.36,"median":49.58,"hi90":63.67},"CON":{"lo90":22.04,"median":35.66,"hi90":49.48},"GRN":{"lo90":4.91,"median":14.57,"hi90":25.42}},"baseline_moves":["Greg Reid (independent 2024, 1.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"312","name":"Prince George-Mackenzie","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Kiel Giddens","share":60.9},"shares_2024":{"CON":60.9,"NDP":28.2,"GRN":8.5,"IND":2.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":28.47,"CON":55.29,"GRN":8.67,"ONEBC":7.57},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Kiel Giddens","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9695,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0299,"CON":0.9695,"GRN":0.0006},"point":{"NDP":29.09,"CON":61.29,"GRN":9.63,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":15.49,"median":28.8,"hi90":43.04},"CON":{"lo90":46.33,"median":61.47,"hi90":75.68},"GRN":{"lo90":1.25,"median":9.26,"hi90":18.91}},"baseline_moves":["Rachael Weber (independent 2024, 2.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"313","name":"Prince George-North Cariboo","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Sheldon Clare","share":56.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":56.8,"IND":21.8,"NDP":17.0,"GRN":4.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":22.47,"CON":62.95,"GRN":5.95,"ONEBC":8.64},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Sheldon Clare","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9926,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0073,"CON":0.9926,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":23.16,"CON":70.11,"GRN":6.72,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":10.26,"median":22.68,"hi90":36.41},"CON":{"lo90":55.96,"median":70.31,"hi90":83.48},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":6.51,"hi90":15.29}},"baseline_moves":["Coralee Oakes (independent 2024, 21.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Coralee Oakes (ex-BC United MLA) took 21.8% as an independent in 2024; not running. Her vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"314","name":"Prince George-Valemount","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Rosalyn Bird","share":55.2},"shares_2024":{"CON":55.2,"NDP":34.9,"GRN":9.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":34.48,"CON":48.97,"GRN":9.87,"ONEBC":6.69},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Rosalyn Bird","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8195,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1791,"CON":0.8195,"GRN":0.001,"ONEBC":0.0004},"point":{"NDP":34.31,"CON":47.93,"GRN":10.9,"ONEBC":6.86,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":19.75,"median":33.99,"hi90":48.11},"CON":{"lo90":33.17,"median":47.9,"hi90":63.06},"GRN":{"lo90":1.81,"median":10.62,"hi90":20.62},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.02,"median":6.52,"hi90":14.89}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Rosalyn Bird: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."}]},{"id":"315","name":"Richmond-Bridgeport","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Teresa Wat","share":58.2},"shares_2024":{"CON":58.2,"NDP":34.8,"GRN":3.2,"IND":3.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":35.38,"CON":54.02,"GRN":3.21,"ONEBC":7.38},"running":["NDP","CON"],"incumbent":{"name":"Teresa Wat","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9148,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0852,"CON":0.9148},"point":{"NDP":38.99,"CON":61.01,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":25.92,"median":38.99,"hi90":52.71},"CON":{"lo90":47.29,"median":61.01,"hi90":74.08}},"baseline_moves":["Glynnis Hoi Sum Chan (independent 2024, 3.0%) not running: transferred","Charlie Smith (independent 2024, 0.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Teresa Wat: Left the Conservative caucus in 2025-26, sat as an independent and then CentreBC (from 2026-09-18), and returned to the Conservatives on 2026-09-22; the Conservative candidate here.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Incumbent (2024 Conservative winner) runs for the same party; the episode could cost personal or party support. Low to moderate."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"316","name":"Richmond Centre","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Hon Chan","share":52.0},"shares_2024":{"CON":52.0,"NDP":36.8,"IND":3.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":39.06,"CON":52.42,"GRN":0.8,"ONEBC":7.16,"OTH":0.56},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Hon Chan","party_at_dissolution":"IND","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8765,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1235,"CON":0.8765},"point":{"NDP":38.85,"CON":56.39,"GRN":1.16,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.61},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":25.49,"median":38.51,"hi90":51.5},"CON":{"lo90":42.22,"median":56.14,"hi90":69.4},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.78,"hi90":6.52},"OTH":{"lo90":0.3,"median":3.31,"hi90":8.8}},"baseline_moves":["Wendy Yuan (independent 2024, 6.3%) not running: transferred","Dickens Cheung (independent 2024, 3.4%) not running: transferred","Sunny Ho (independent 2024, 1.5%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Hon Chan (elected Conservative 2024, removed from caucus March 2026) is not on the ballot.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: loss of incumbent."}]},{"id":"317","name":"Richmond-Queensborough","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Steve Kooner","share":50.9},"shares_2024":{"CON":50.9,"NDP":44.1,"IND":1.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.85,"CON":48.22,"GRN":0.37,"ONEBC":6.57},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Steve Kooner","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6994,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3005,"CON":0.6994,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":45.78,"CON":53.49,"GRN":0.73,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":31.67,"median":45.47,"hi90":59.02},"CON":{"lo90":39.24,"median":53.19,"hi90":66.81},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.39,"hi90":5.8}},"baseline_moves":["Cindy Wu (independent 2024, 3.7%) not running: transferred","Errol E. Povah (independent 2024, 1.3%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"318","name":"Richmond-Steveston","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Kelly Greene","share":44.3},"shares_2024":{"NDP":44.3,"CON":42.2,"IND":10.1,"GRN":3.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":46.39,"CON":43.69,"GRN":3.44,"ONEBC":5.94,"OTH":0.54},"running":["NDP","CON","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Kelly Greene","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5154,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5154,"CON":0.4846},"point":{"NDP":48.3,"CON":47.54,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.52,"OTH":3.64},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":34.72,"median":48.19,"hi90":61.64},"CON":{"lo90":33.99,"median":47.55,"hi90":60.91},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.48,"hi90":1.38},"OTH":{"lo90":0.39,"median":3.35,"hi90":8.8}},"baseline_moves":["Jackie Lee (independent 2024, 10.1%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Kelly Greene (NDP) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate: loss of incumbent (The Writ docks a party 3-4 points when its incumbent leaves)."},{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Jackie Lee took 10.1% as an independent in 2024; not running. Her vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"319","name":"Saanich North and the Islands","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"GRN","name":"Rob Botterell","share":36.2},"shares_2024":{"GRN":36.2,"NDP":32.2,"CON":29.8,"IND":1.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":32.26,"CON":27.69,"GRN":36.29,"ONEBC":3.76},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Rob Botterell","party_at_dissolution":"GRN","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"GRN","prob":0.539,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.2584,"CON":0.2026,"GRN":0.539},"point":{"NDP":31.91,"CON":29.57,"GRN":38.52,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":17.17,"median":31.72,"hi90":47.25},"CON":{"lo90":15.99,"median":29.87,"hi90":45.47},"GRN":{"lo90":22.23,"median":37.91,"hi90":52.85}},"baseline_moves":["Amy Haysom (independent 2024, 1.9%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"green_seat","note":"One of the Greens' two 2024 seats. Rob Botterell (Green MLA) is not running; Green leader Emily Lowan is the candidate. CentreBC also runs.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"High. The Green hold depends on the candidate and on NDP-Green tactical voting, neither of which is modelled; the riding is close to a three-way contest."}]},{"id":"320","name":"Saanich South","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Lana Popham","share":49.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":49.8,"CON":32.4,"GRN":17.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":49.16,"CON":29.12,"GRN":17.79,"ONEBC":3.93},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Lana Popham","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.8579,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.8579,"CON":0.1295,"GRN":0.0126},"point":{"NDP":49.28,"CON":31.47,"GRN":19.26,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":33.92,"median":49.23,"hi90":64.32},"CON":{"lo90":17.81,"median":31.71,"hi90":46.48},"GRN":{"lo90":6.97,"median":18.74,"hi90":31.37}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Lana Popham (NDP) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate: loss of incumbent (The Writ docks a party 3-4 points when its incumbent leaves)."}]},{"id":"321","name":"Salmon Arm-Shuswap","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"David L. Williams","share":52.1},"shares_2024":{"CON":52.1,"NDP":30.4,"IND":9.2,"GRN":7.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":32.73,"CON":52.27,"GRN":7.86,"ONEBC":7.15},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"David Williams","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8839,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1154,"CON":0.8839,"GRN":0.0005,"ONEBC":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":32.59,"CON":51.31,"GRN":8.76,"ONEBC":7.34,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":17.91,"median":32.27,"hi90":46.54},"CON":{"lo90":36.45,"median":51.45,"hi90":66.62},"GRN":{"lo90":0.72,"median":8.41,"hi90":17.89},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.19,"median":7.03,"hi90":15.74}},"baseline_moves":["Greg McCune (independent 2024, 9.2%) not running: transferred","Sherry Roy (independent 2024, 1.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"322","name":"Skeena","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Claire RattÃ©e","share":51.2},"shares_2024":{"CON":51.2,"NDP":44.4,"GRN":3.3,"OTH":1.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":43.87,"CON":45.57,"GRN":3.33,"ONEBC":6.2,"OTH":1.03},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Claire Rattée","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5198,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4794,"CON":0.5198,"GRN":0.0002,"ONEBC":0.0006},"point":{"NDP":44.44,"CON":45.15,"GRN":3.95,"ONEBC":6.45,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":28.99,"median":44.23,"hi90":58.73},"CON":{"lo90":30.07,"median":45.04,"hi90":60.22},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.59,"hi90":11.55},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":6.1,"hi90":14.67}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Claire Rattée: left or was removed from the Conservative caucus in September 2026 and returned on 2026-09-21; Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low."}]},{"id":"323","name":"Surrey City Centre","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Amna Shah","share":46.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":46.7,"CON":45.1,"GRN":6.1,"IND":1.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":46.41,"CON":40.92,"GRN":6.09,"ONEBC":5.56,"OTH":1.01},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Amna Shah","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7299,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7299,"CON":0.27,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":51.24,"CON":41.85,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":5.99,"CENTRE":0.93,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":36.99,"median":51.09,"hi90":64.83},"CON":{"lo90":28.37,"median":41.83,"hi90":55.87},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.36,"median":5.73,"hi90":12.93},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.03,"median":0.88,"hi90":1.99}},"baseline_moves":["Saeed Naguib (independent 2024, 1.1%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"324","name":"Surrey-Cloverdale","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Elenore Sturko","share":48.3},"shares_2024":{"CON":48.3,"NDP":45.6,"GRN":5.4,"OTH":0.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.97,"CON":43.05,"GRN":5.41,"ONEBC":5.85,"OTH":0.72},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Elenore Sturko","party_at_dissolution":"CENTRE","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":true,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5799,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5799,"CON":0.4198,"GRN":0.0001,"ONEBC":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":45.37,"CON":42.39,"GRN":6.18,"ONEBC":6.06,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":30.95,"median":45.29,"hi90":59.3},"CON":{"lo90":28.59,"median":42.44,"hi90":56.66},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":5.84,"hi90":13.69},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.05,"median":5.73,"hi90":13.03}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_moved","note":"Elenore Sturko (MLA, elected Conservative 2024) is running in Surrey South instead; open seat.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: loss of incumbent."}]},{"id":"325","name":"Surrey-Fleetwood","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Jagrup Brar","share":48.6},"shares_2024":{"NDP":48.6,"CON":44.9,"GRN":6.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":47.99,"CON":40.09,"GRN":6.47,"ONEBC":5.44},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jagrup Brar","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7286,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7286,"CON":0.2712,"GRN":0.0001,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":48.06,"CON":39.08,"GRN":7.27,"ONEBC":5.59,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":33.59,"median":48.0,"hi90":61.66},"CON":{"lo90":25.48,"median":39.1,"hi90":52.94},"GRN":{"lo90":0.32,"median":6.91,"hi90":15.4},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":5.3,"hi90":12.48}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"326","name":"Surrey-Guildford","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Garry Begg","share":46.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":46.9,"CON":46.8,"GRN":4.3,"IND":1.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":46.81,"CON":42.82,"GRN":4.46,"ONEBC":5.82,"OTH":0.1},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Garry Begg","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5106,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5106,"CON":0.4892,"GRN":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":46.25,"CON":45.71,"GRN":4.98,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.07},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":31.89,"median":46.04,"hi90":59.65},"CON":{"lo90":32.02,"median":45.72,"hi90":59.26},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.69,"hi90":11.67},"OTH":{"lo90":0.21,"median":2.73,"hi90":8.01}},"baseline_moves":["Kabir Qurban (independent 2024, 1.9%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"327","name":"Surrey-Newton","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Jessie Sunner","share":51.2},"shares_2024":{"NDP":51.2,"CON":43.0,"OTH":2.4,"IND":2.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":51.49,"CON":40.62,"ONEBC":5.51,"OTH":2.38},"running":["NDP","CON","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jessie Sunner","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7025,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7025,"CON":0.2975},"point":{"NDP":53.92,"CON":46.03,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.05,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":40.03,"median":54.06,"hi90":68.0},"CON":{"lo90":31.82,"median":45.77,"hi90":59.78},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.01,"hi90":0.75}},"baseline_moves":["Japreet Lehal (independent 2024, 2.2%) not running: transferred","Joginder Singh Randhawa (independent 2024, 1.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"328","name":"Surrey North","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Mandeep Dhaliwal","share":50.7},"shares_2024":{"CON":50.7,"NDP":43.3,"GRN":4.2,"OTH":1.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":42.92,"CON":45.54,"GRN":4.27,"ONEBC":6.2,"OTH":1.06},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Mandeep Dhaliwal","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5511,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4486,"CON":0.5511,"GRN":0.0001,"ONEBC":0.0001,"OTH":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":41.84,"CON":43.42,"GRN":4.79,"ONEBC":6.21,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.75},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":28.11,"median":41.6,"hi90":55.12},"CON":{"lo90":29.82,"median":43.43,"hi90":56.75},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":4.39,"hi90":11.45},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.05,"median":5.93,"hi90":12.94},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":3.5,"hi90":9.27}},"baseline_moves":["Hobby Nijjar (independent 2024, 0.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"329","name":"Surrey-Panorama","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Bryan Tepper","share":49.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":49.6,"NDP":48.1,"OTH":2.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":47.49,"CON":44.22,"ONEBC":6.01,"OTH":2.28},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Bryan Tepper","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5231,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4769,"CON":0.5231},"point":{"NDP":49.56,"CON":50.11,"GRN":0.34,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":34.76,"median":48.97,"hi90":62.68},"CON":{"lo90":35.99,"median":49.88,"hi90":63.75},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.14,"hi90":5.54}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"330","name":"Surrey-Serpentine River","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Linda Hepner","share":49.7},"shares_2024":{"CON":49.7,"NDP":47.5,"IND":2.8},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":47.63,"CON":45.97,"ONEBC":6.25,"OTH":0.15},"running":["NDP","CON","ONEBC","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Linda Hepner","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.577,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.577,"CON":0.4229,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":46.8,"CON":44.02,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":6.29,"CENTRE":0.04,"OTH":2.85},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":32.66,"median":46.71,"hi90":60.2},"CON":{"lo90":30.04,"median":43.83,"hi90":57.49},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.22,"median":5.93,"hi90":13.25},"CENTRE":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.01,"hi90":0.66},"OTH":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.58,"hi90":7.94}},"baseline_moves":["Jim McMurtry (independent 2024, 2.8%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Linda Hepner (elected Conservative 2024) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate."},{"type":"no_candidate","note":"No Green candidate; the Green share is handed to the other candidates (transfers.absent.GRN).","v1":"Green zeroed; transferred.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate in close seats."}]},{"id":"331","name":"Surrey South","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Brent Chapman","share":58.8},"shares_2024":{"CON":58.8,"NDP":41.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":40.63,"CON":52.25,"ONEBC":7.13},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Brent Chapman","party_at_dissolution":"ONEBC","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.8528,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.1471,"CON":0.8528,"GRN":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":40.41,"CON":56.22,"GRN":0.32,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":3.04},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":26.46,"median":39.77,"hi90":53.34},"CON":{"lo90":42.04,"median":55.97,"hi90":68.89},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.13,"hi90":5.17},"OTH":{"lo90":0.25,"median":2.71,"hi90":8.05}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"new_party_leader","note":"Elenore Sturko (CentreBC leader; MLA for Surrey-Cloverdale, elected Conservative 2024) runs here. Brent Chapman (elected Conservative 2024 with 58.8%, crossed to OneBC on 2026-09-22) is not on the ballot.","v1":"Not adjusted in the default; seeded in the sensitivity run.","why_it_may_matter":"High. A party leader and sitting MLA could take far more than CentreBC's provincial share. The 'seeded' sensitivity adds 7.5 points."}]},{"id":"332","name":"Surrey-White Rock","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Trevor Halford","share":52.3},"shares_2024":{"CON":52.3,"NDP":45.3,"OTH":2.4},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":44.71,"CON":46.58,"ONEBC":6.34,"OTH":2.38},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Trevor Halford","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.5307,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.4688,"CON":0.5307,"ONEBC":0.0005},"point":{"NDP":43.71,"CON":44.54,"GRN":0.32,"ONEBC":6.36,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":5.07},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":29.15,"median":43.15,"hi90":56.71},"CON":{"lo90":30.77,"median":44.35,"hi90":57.58},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.13,"hi90":5.13},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.2,"median":6.05,"hi90":13.23},"OTH":{"lo90":0.03,"median":4.84,"hi90":10.74}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"floor_crosser","note":"Trevor Halford: left or was removed from the Conservative caucus in September 2026 and returned on 2026-09-21; Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low."}]},{"id":"333","name":"Vancouver-Fraserview","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"George Chow","share":57.2},"shares_2024":{"NDP":57.2,"CON":36.6,"GRN":6.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":56.49,"CON":32.87,"GRN":6.2,"ONEBC":4.44},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"George Chow","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9088,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9088,"CON":0.091,"GRN":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":57.12,"CON":35.91,"GRN":6.97,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":42.89,"median":57.11,"hi90":70.45},"CON":{"lo90":22.64,"median":35.91,"hi90":49.81},"GRN":{"lo90":0.2,"median":6.67,"hi90":14.71}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"George Chow (NDP) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate: loss of incumbent (The Writ docks a party 3-4 points when its incumbent leaves)."}]},{"id":"334","name":"Vancouver-Hastings","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Niki Sharma","share":64.1},"shares_2024":{"NDP":64.1,"CON":24.3,"GRN":10.9,"IND":0.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":63.62,"CON":22.44,"GRN":10.9,"ONEBC":3.0,"OTH":0.04},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Niki Sharma","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9874,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9874,"CON":0.0115,"GRN":0.0011},"point":{"NDP":62.23,"CON":23.28,"GRN":11.65,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":2.85},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":48.28,"median":62.11,"hi90":74.73},"CON":{"lo90":12.13,"median":23.29,"hi90":35.92},"GRN":{"lo90":2.83,"median":11.31,"hi90":20.77},"OTH":{"lo90":0.07,"median":2.52,"hi90":7.82}},"baseline_moves":["Zsolt Kiss (independent 2024, 0.7%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"335","name":"Vancouver-Kensington","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Mable Elmore","share":60.9},"shares_2024":{"NDP":60.9,"CON":31.5,"GRN":7.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":60.2,"CON":28.4,"GRN":7.58,"ONEBC":3.82},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Mable Elmore","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9643,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9643,"CON":0.0354,"GRN":0.0003},"point":{"NDP":60.73,"CON":30.83,"GRN":8.44,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":46.64,"median":60.6,"hi90":73.87},"CON":{"lo90":18.38,"median":30.85,"hi90":44.67},"GRN":{"lo90":0.97,"median":8.11,"hi90":16.74}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"336","name":"Vancouver-Langara","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Sunita Dhir","share":48.4},"shares_2024":{"NDP":48.4,"CON":46.0,"GRN":5.5},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":47.82,"CON":41.08,"GRN":5.52,"ONEBC":5.58},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Sunita Dhir","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.5877,"category":"Toss-up","win_prob":{"NDP":0.5877,"CON":0.4121,"GRN":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":48.52,"CON":45.23,"GRN":6.25,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":34.2,"median":48.53,"hi90":62.38},"CON":{"lo90":31.5,"median":45.19,"hi90":59.21},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":5.98,"hi90":13.75}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"337","name":"Vancouver-Little Mountain","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Christine Boyle","share":62.1},"shares_2024":{"NDP":62.1,"CON":30.6,"GRN":7.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":61.4,"CON":27.61,"GRN":7.28,"ONEBC":3.71},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Christine Boyle","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9744,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9744,"CON":0.0254,"GRN":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":61.94,"CON":29.94,"GRN":8.12,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":48.02,"median":61.89,"hi90":74.98},"CON":{"lo90":17.51,"median":29.99,"hi90":43.35},"GRN":{"lo90":0.9,"median":7.8,"hi90":16.26}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"338","name":"Vancouver-Point Grey","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"David Eby","share":56.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":56.8,"CON":34.5,"GRN":8.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":56.09,"CON":31.01,"GRN":8.72,"ONEBC":4.18},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"David Eby","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9269,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9269,"CON":0.0729,"GRN":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":56.6,"CON":33.75,"GRN":9.65,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":42.31,"median":56.58,"hi90":70.55},"CON":{"lo90":20.82,"median":33.84,"hi90":47.34},"GRN":{"lo90":1.46,"median":9.32,"hi90":18.44}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"leader_seat","note":"NDP leader David Eby.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low (safe seats)."}]},{"id":"339","name":"Vancouver-Quilchena","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Dallas Brodie","share":51.6},"shares_2024":{"CON":51.6,"NDP":38.9,"GRN":7.8,"IND":1.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":38.85,"CON":46.85,"GRN":7.91,"ONEBC":6.39},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Dallas Brodie","party_at_dissolution":"ONEBC","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6891,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3103,"CON":0.6891,"GRN":0.0005,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":38.78,"CON":45.85,"GRN":8.81,"ONEBC":6.56,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":24.77,"median":38.63,"hi90":52.65},"CON":{"lo90":31.69,"median":45.93,"hi90":60.36},"GRN":{"lo90":1.21,"median":8.43,"hi90":17.21},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.19,"median":6.23,"hi90":13.88}},"baseline_moves":["Caroline Ying-Mei Wang (independent 2024, 1.7%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"new_party_leader","note":"Dallas Brodie (OneBC interim leader; elected Conservative 2024 with 51.6%) runs again for OneBC against a new Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in the default; seeded in the sensitivity run.","why_it_may_matter":"High. Splits the right-of-centre vote in a seat the Conservatives won narrowly in 2024; a sitting MLA's personal vote is not in the model. The 'seeded' sensitivity adds 15 points."}]},{"id":"340","name":"Vancouver-Renfrew","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Adrian Dix","share":63.2},"shares_2024":{"NDP":63.2,"CON":30.7,"GRN":6.1},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":62.49,"CON":27.67,"GRN":6.12,"ONEBC":3.72},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Adrian Dix","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9718,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9718,"CON":0.0279,"GRN":0.0003},"point":{"NDP":63.09,"CON":30.03,"GRN":6.88,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":48.81,"median":62.96,"hi90":76.21},"CON":{"lo90":17.2,"median":30.14,"hi90":43.64},"GRN":{"lo90":0.12,"median":6.62,"hi90":14.76}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"341","name":"Vancouver-South Granville","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Brenda Bailey","share":64.3},"shares_2024":{"NDP":64.3,"CON":25.0,"GRN":10.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":63.61,"CON":22.64,"GRN":10.73,"ONEBC":3.02},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Brenda Bailey","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":true,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9918,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9918,"CON":0.0074,"GRN":0.0007,"ONEBC":0.0001},"point":{"NDP":63.61,"CON":21.51,"GRN":11.78,"ONEBC":3.09,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":48.93,"median":63.56,"hi90":76.86},"CON":{"lo90":9.71,"median":21.41,"hi90":34.35},"GRN":{"lo90":2.87,"median":11.52,"hi90":21.24},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.0,"median":2.73,"hi90":8.71}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_not_running","note":"Brenda Bailey (NDP) is not running.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low to moderate: loss of incumbent (The Writ docks a party 3-4 points when its incumbent leaves)."}]},{"id":"342","name":"Vancouver-Strathcona","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Joan Phillip","share":68.2},"shares_2024":{"NDP":68.2,"CON":17.1,"GRN":13.1,"OTH":1.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":67.51,"CON":15.7,"GRN":13.05,"ONEBC":2.07,"OTH":1.67},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","OTH"],"incumbent":{"name":"Vacant","party_at_dissolution":null,"not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":"vacant"},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9948,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9948,"CON":0.0038,"GRN":0.0014},"point":{"NDP":65.81,"CON":15.92,"GRN":13.85,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":4.42},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":51.66,"median":65.72,"hi90":78.09},"CON":{"lo90":6.09,"median":15.9,"hi90":27.52},"GRN":{"lo90":4.4,"median":13.51,"hi90":23.93},"OTH":{"lo90":0.18,"median":4.24,"hi90":9.88}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"vacant","note":"Vacant: Joan Phillip (NDP) died 2026-08-28; no by-election. NDP candidate Amanda Burrows.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low (safe NDP seat)."}]},{"id":"343","name":"Vancouver-West End","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Spencer Chandra Herbert","share":63.0},"shares_2024":{"NDP":63.0,"CON":27.2,"GRN":9.1,"IND":0.7},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":62.49,"CON":25.03,"GRN":9.13,"ONEBC":3.35},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Spencer Chandra Herbert","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.9805,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.9805,"CON":0.019,"GRN":0.0005},"point":{"NDP":62.92,"CON":27.0,"GRN":10.08,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":48.64,"median":62.83,"hi90":76.11},"CON":{"lo90":15.14,"median":27.03,"hi90":40.33},"GRN":{"lo90":1.96,"median":9.76,"hi90":18.84}},"baseline_moves":["Carl Turnbull (independent 2024, 0.7%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[]},{"id":"344","name":"Vancouver-Yaletown","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Terry Yung","share":49.8},"shares_2024":{"NDP":49.8,"CON":43.4,"GRN":6.9},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":49.14,"CON":38.73,"GRN":6.89,"ONEBC":5.25},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Terry Yung","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.6806,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.6806,"CON":0.3192,"GRN":0.0002},"point":{"NDP":49.77,"CON":42.53,"GRN":7.71,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":35.76,"median":49.6,"hi90":63.34},"CON":{"lo90":29.17,"median":42.69,"hi90":56.49},"GRN":{"lo90":0.62,"median":7.39,"hi90":15.71}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"345","name":"Vernon-Lumby","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Harwinder Sandhu","share":42.7},"shares_2024":{"NDP":42.7,"CON":41.0,"IND":15.4,"OTH":1.0},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":42.13,"CON":50.09,"ONEBC":6.83,"OTH":0.95},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Harwinder Sandhu","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.6753,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.3241,"CON":0.6753,"GRN":0.0002,"ONEBC":0.0004},"point":{"NDP":42.73,"CON":49.82,"GRN":0.33,"ONEBC":7.12,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":26.81,"median":41.94,"hi90":56.55},"CON":{"lo90":34.59,"median":49.44,"hi90":64.52},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":0.13,"hi90":6.42},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.04,"median":6.72,"hi90":15.17}},"baseline_moves":["Kevin Acton (independent 2024) runs again as CON"],"notes":[{"type":"returning_candidate","note":"Kevin Acton took 15.4% as an independent in 2024 and is the 2026 Conservative candidate (assumed the same person); v1 moves his 2024 vote to the Conservatives.","v1":"His 2024 votes are assigned to the Conservatives (rule: a returning candidate keeps their vote).","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: if his 2024 voters do not follow him, the Conservative share is overstated."}]},{"id":"346","name":"Victoria-Beacon Hill","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Grace Lore","share":47.4},"shares_2024":{"NDP":47.4,"GRN":33.5,"CON":19.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":46.83,"CON":17.35,"GRN":33.5,"ONEBC":2.32},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Grace Lore","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.7542,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.7542,"CON":0.0147,"GRN":0.2311},"point":{"NDP":46.28,"CON":18.12,"GRN":35.59,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":30.6,"median":46.15,"hi90":62.27},"CON":{"lo90":6.63,"median":18.37,"hi90":32.24},"GRN":{"lo90":19.36,"median":35.14,"hi90":49.73}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"notable_candidate","note":"The Conservatives dropped their candidate, Joachim Agou, on 2026-10-08 over social-media posts; he stays on the ballot as the Conservative candidate.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Low (safe NDP seat), but the Conservative share is likely overstated."}]},{"id":"347","name":"Victoria-Swan Lake","region":"Vancouver Island","winner_2024":{"party":"NDP","name":"Nina Krieger","share":56.0},"shares_2024":{"NDP":56.0,"GRN":23.2,"CON":20.2,"OTH":0.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":55.43,"CON":18.36,"GRN":23.16,"ONEBC":2.45,"OTH":0.61},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Nina Krieger","party_at_dissolution":"NDP","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"NDP","prob":0.959,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.959,"CON":0.0131,"GRN":0.0279},"point":{"NDP":55.53,"CON":19.46,"GRN":25.01,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":39.81,"median":55.36,"hi90":70.63},"CON":{"lo90":7.66,"median":19.74,"hi90":33.3},"GRN":{"lo90":10.84,"median":24.46,"hi90":38.26}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[]},{"id":"348","name":"West Kelowna-Peachland","region":"Interior and North","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Macklin McCall","share":50.9},"shares_2024":{"CON":50.9,"NDP":27.9,"IND":21.2},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":33.04,"CON":57.49,"GRN":1.6,"ONEBC":7.87},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN"],"incumbent":{"name":"Macklin McCall","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9608,"category":"Solid","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0392,"CON":0.9608},"point":{"NDP":33.91,"CON":64.04,"GRN":2.05,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":19.98,"median":33.49,"hi90":47.79},"CON":{"lo90":49.47,"median":63.89,"hi90":77.59},"GRN":{"lo90":0.0,"median":1.63,"hi90":8.54}},"baseline_moves":["Stephen Johnston (independent 2024, 21.2%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"defunct_vote","note":"Stephen Johnston took 21.2% as an independent in 2024; not running. His vote is transferred.","v1":"Transferred with transfers.bc_united_residual.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: the transfer matrix (an assumption) decides where 15-30% of the 2024 vote goes."}]},{"id":"349","name":"West Vancouver-Capilano","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"CON","name":"Lynne Block","share":46.7},"shares_2024":{"CON":46.7,"NDP":27.1,"IND":20.6,"GRN":5.6},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":32.13,"CON":53.45,"GRN":7.11,"ONEBC":7.31},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","ONEBC"],"incumbent":{"name":"Lynne Block","party_at_dissolution":"CON","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":true,"note":null},"leader":"CON","prob":0.9151,"category":"Likely","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0841,"CON":0.9151,"GRN":0.0005,"ONEBC":0.0003},"point":{"NDP":32.0,"CON":52.52,"GRN":7.96,"ONEBC":7.52,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":18.66,"median":31.88,"hi90":45.17},"CON":{"lo90":38.48,"median":52.63,"hi90":66.61},"GRN":{"lo90":0.65,"median":7.64,"hi90":16.32},"ONEBC":{"lo90":0.57,"median":7.14,"hi90":15.11}},"baseline_moves":["Karin Kirkpatrick (independent 2024, 20.6%) not running: transferred"],"notes":[{"type":"incumbent_moved","note":"Lynne Block (elected Conservative 2024) is running in North Vancouver-Seymour instead; open seat. In 2024 Karin Kirkpatrick (ex-BC United, later CentreBC founder) took 20.6% here as an independent; that vote is transferred.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"Moderate: open seat; where Kirkpatrick's 2024 vote goes is an assumption."}]},{"id":"350","name":"West Vancouver-Sea to Sky","region":"Metro Vancouver","winner_2024":{"party":"GRN","name":"Jeremy Valeriote","share":38.1},"shares_2024":{"GRN":38.1,"CON":35.6,"NDP":26.3},"adjusted_baseline":{"NDP":25.97,"CON":31.64,"GRN":38.08,"ONEBC":4.32},"running":["NDP","CON","GRN","CENTRE"],"incumbent":{"name":"Jeremy Valeriote","party_at_dissolution":"GRN","not_running":false,"running_elsewhere":false,"note":null},"leader":"GRN","prob":0.6163,"category":"Leans","win_prob":{"NDP":0.0796,"CON":0.3041,"GRN":0.6163},"point":{"NDP":25.69,"CON":33.94,"GRN":40.38,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"share":{"NDP":{"lo90":13.21,"median":25.63,"hi90":39.52},"CON":{"lo90":20.68,"median":34.26,"hi90":48.8},"GRN":{"lo90":24.35,"median":40.02,"hi90":53.75}},"baseline_moves":[],"notes":[{"type":"green_seat","note":"The Greens' other 2024 seat. Jeremy Valeriote (Green MLA, interim leader 2025) runs again; CentreBC runs Dan Wood.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"High: Green incumbency is not modelled, so v1 probably understates the Green."}]}],"changes":{"from_file":"2026-01-26_leger.json","average":{"NDP":0.44,"CON":0.03,"GRN":-0.15,"ONEBC":-0.73,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.41},"seat_median":{"NDP":1.0,"CON":-1.0,"GRN":-1.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"p_majority":{"NDP":0.0381,"CON":-0.0328,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"p_minority":-0.0053,"leader_changes":["289","294","318","326"]},"average_series":{"NDP":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-21",null],["2024-10-28",null],["2024-11-04",null],["2024-11-11",null],["2024-11-18",null],["2024-11-25",null],["2024-12-02",null],["2024-12-09",null],["2024-12-16",null],["2024-12-23",null],["2024-12-30",null],["2025-01-06",null],["2025-01-13",null],["2025-01-20",null],["2025-01-27",45.51],["2025-02-03",45.72],["2025-02-10",45.86],["2025-02-17",45.9],["2025-02-24",45.84],["2025-03-03",45.7],["2025-03-10",45.49],["2025-03-17",45.26],["2025-03-24",45.04],["2025-03-31",44.89],["2025-04-07",44.84],["2025-04-14",44.84],["2025-04-21",44.83],["2025-04-28",44.75],["2025-05-05",44.63],["2025-05-12",44.44],["2025-05-19",44.19],["2025-05-26",43.88],["2025-06-02",43.54],["2025-06-09",43.18],["2025-06-16",42.83],["2025-06-23",42.51],["2025-06-30",42.22],["2025-07-07",41.97],["2025-07-14",41.78],["2025-07-21",41.67],["2025-07-28",41.71],["2025-08-04",41.93],["2025-08-11",42.24],["2025-08-18",42.54],["2025-08-25",42.85],["2025-09-01",43.2],["2025-09-08",43.56],["2025-09-15",43.88],["2025-09-22",44.12],["2025-09-29",44.27],["2025-10-06",44.31],["2025-10-13",44.25],["2025-10-20",44.08],["2025-10-27",43.8],["2025-11-03",43.43],["2025-11-10",43.05],["2025-11-17",42.75],["2025-11-24",42.56],["2025-12-01",42.45],["2025-12-08",42.4],["2025-12-15",42.38],["2025-12-22",42.39],["2025-12-29",42.45],["2026-01-05",42.61],["2026-01-12",42.88],["2026-01-19",43.22],["2026-01-26",43.52],["2026-02-02",43.74],["2026-02-09",43.87]],"CON":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-21",null],["2024-10-28",null],["2024-11-04",null],["2024-11-11",null],["2024-11-18",null],["2024-11-25",null],["2024-12-02",null],["2024-12-09",null],["2024-12-16",null],["2024-12-23",null],["2024-12-30",null],["2025-01-06",null],["2025-01-13",null],["2025-01-20",null],["2025-01-27",41.59],["2025-02-03",41.53],["2025-02-10",41.5],["2025-02-17",41.49],["2025-02-24",41.51],["2025-03-03",41.57],["2025-03-10",41.7],["2025-03-17",41.94],["2025-03-24",42.42],["2025-03-31",43.24],["2025-04-07",44.14],["2025-04-14",44.6],["2025-04-21",44.48],["2025-04-28",44.03],["2025-05-05",43.44],["2025-05-12",42.87],["2025-05-19",42.4],["2025-05-26",42.11],["2025-06-02",42.0],["2025-06-09",42.07],["2025-06-16",42.24],["2025-06-23",42.48],["2025-06-30",42.74],["2025-07-07",42.99],["2025-07-14",43.21],["2025-07-21",43.42],["2025-07-28",43.56],["2025-08-04",43.53],["2025-08-11",43.28],["2025-08-18",42.87],["2025-08-25",42.35],["2025-09-01",41.77],["2025-09-08",41.19],["2025-09-15",40.68],["2025-09-22",40.29],["2025-09-29",40.03],["2025-10-06",39.86],["2025-10-13",39.77],["2025-10-20",39.71],["2025-10-27",39.64],["2025-11-03",39.54],["2025-11-10",39.43],["2025-11-17",39.35],["2025-11-24",39.34],["2025-12-01",39.39],["2025-12-08",39.47],["2025-12-15",39.57],["2025-12-22",39.65],["2025-12-29",39.66],["2026-01-05",39.57],["2026-01-12",39.37],["2026-01-19",39.1],["2026-01-26",38.87],["2026-02-02",38.73],["2026-02-09",38.67]],"GRN":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-21",null],["2024-10-28",null],["2024-11-04",null],["2024-11-11",null],["2024-11-18",null],["2024-11-25",null],["2024-12-02",null],["2024-12-09",null],["2024-12-16",null],["2024-12-23",null],["2024-12-30",null],["2025-01-06",null],["2025-01-13",null],["2025-01-20",null],["2025-01-27",9.35],["2025-02-03",9.31],["2025-02-10",9.31],["2025-02-17",9.37],["2025-02-24",9.49],["2025-03-03",9.65],["2025-03-10",9.8],["2025-03-17",9.88],["2025-03-24",9.78],["2025-03-31",9.37],["2025-04-07",8.77],["2025-04-14",8.34],["2025-04-21",8.25],["2025-04-28",8.37],["2025-05-05",8.56],["2025-05-12",8.73],["2025-05-19",8.83],["2025-05-26",8.82],["2025-06-02",8.71],["2025-06-09",8.53],["2025-06-16",8.31],["2025-06-23",8.07],["2025-06-30",7.86],["2025-07-07",7.69],["2025-07-14",7.61],["2025-07-21",7.73],["2025-07-28",8.24],["2025-08-04",9.05],["2025-08-11",9.68],["2025-08-18",9.95],["2025-08-25",10.03],["2025-09-01",10.03],["2025-09-08",9.99],["2025-09-15",9.93],["2025-09-22",9.85],["2025-09-29",9.78],["2025-10-06",9.7],["2025-10-13",9.64],["2025-10-20",9.59],["2025-10-27",9.54],["2025-11-03",9.49],["2025-11-10",9.45],["2025-11-17",9.42],["2025-11-24",9.42],["2025-12-01",9.43],["2025-12-08",9.46],["2025-12-15",9.49],["2025-12-22",9.52],["2025-12-29",9.51],["2026-01-05",9.47],["2026-01-12",9.38],["2026-01-19",9.27],["2026-01-26",9.16],["2026-02-02",9.09],["2026-02-09",9.05]],"ONEBC":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-21",null],["2024-10-28",null],["2024-11-04",null],["2024-11-11",null],["2024-11-18",null],["2024-11-25",null],["2024-12-02",null],["2024-12-09",null],["2024-12-16",null],["2024-12-23",null],["2024-12-30",null],["2025-01-06",null],["2025-01-13",null],["2025-01-20",null],["2025-01-27",null],["2025-02-03",null],["2025-02-10",null],["2025-02-17",null],["2025-02-24",null],["2025-03-03",null],["2025-03-10",null],["2025-03-17",null],["2025-03-24",null],["2025-03-31",null],["2025-04-07",null],["2025-04-14",null],["2025-04-21",null],["2025-04-28",null],["2025-05-05",null],["2025-05-12",null],["2025-05-19",null],["2025-05-26",null],["2025-06-02",null],["2025-06-09",1.0],["2025-06-16",null],["2025-06-23",null],["2025-06-30",null],["2025-07-07",null],["2025-07-14",null],["2025-07-21",null],["2025-07-28",null],["2025-08-04",null],["2025-08-11",null],["2025-08-18",null],["2025-08-25",null],["2025-09-01",null],["2025-09-08",null],["2025-09-15",null],["2025-09-22",null],["2025-09-29",null],["2025-10-06",2.72],["2025-10-13",2.95],["2025-10-20",3.28],["2025-10-27",3.77],["2025-11-03",4.41],["2025-11-10",5.12],["2025-11-17",5.77],["2025-11-24",6.25],["2025-12-01",6.55],["2025-12-08",6.71],["2025-12-15",6.79],["2025-12-22",6.81],["2025-12-29",6.76],["2026-01-05",6.62],["2026-01-12",6.4],["2026-01-19",6.13],["2026-01-26",5.88],["2026-02-02",5.68],["2026-02-09",5.54]],"CENTRE":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-21",null],["2024-10-28",null],["2024-11-04",null],["2024-11-11",null],["2024-11-18",null],["2024-11-25",null],["2024-12-02",null],["2024-12-09",null],["2024-12-16",null],["2024-12-23",null],["2024-12-30",null],["2025-01-06",null],["2025-01-13",null],["2025-01-20",null],["2025-01-27",null],["2025-02-03",null],["2025-02-10",null],["2025-02-17",null],["2025-02-24",null],["2025-03-03",null],["2025-03-10",null],["2025-03-17",null],["2025-03-24",null],["2025-03-31",null],["2025-04-07",null],["2025-04-14",null],["2025-04-21",null],["2025-04-28",null],["2025-05-05",null],["2025-05-12",null],["2025-05-19",null],["2025-05-26",null],["2025-06-02",null],["2025-06-09",2.0],["2025-06-16",null],["2025-06-23",null],["2025-06-30",null],["2025-07-07",null],["2025-07-14",null],["2025-07-21",null],["2025-07-28",null],["2025-08-04",null],["2025-08-11",null],["2025-08-18",null],["2025-08-25",null],["2025-09-01",null],["2025-09-08",null],["2025-09-15",null],["2025-09-22",null],["2025-09-29",null],["2025-10-06",2.44],["2025-10-13",2.33],["2025-10-20",2.22],["2025-10-27",2.11],["2025-11-03",2.01],["2025-11-10",1.94],["2025-11-17",1.9],["2025-11-24",1.89],["2025-12-01",1.9],["2025-12-08",1.92],["2025-12-15",1.95],["2025-12-22",null],["2025-12-29",null],["2026-01-05",null],["2026-01-12",null],["2026-01-19",null],["2026-01-26",null],["2026-02-02",null],["2026-02-09",null]]},"file":"2026-02-09_leger.json","publication":{"date":"2026-02-09","path":"by-date/2026-02-09.json","snapshots_that_day":["2026-02-09_leger.json"],"new_polls":[{"date":"2026-02-09","firm":"Leger","sample":1007,"values":{"NDP":44,"CON":39,"GRN":9,"ONEBC":5}}],"previous_date":"2026-01-26","changes":{"from_date":"2026-01-26","from_file":"2026-01-26_leger.json","average":{"NDP":0.44,"CON":0.03,"GRN":-0.15,"ONEBC":-0.73,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.41},"seat_median":{"NDP":1.0,"CON":-1.0,"GRN":-1.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"p_majority":{"NDP":0.0381,"CON":-0.0328,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"p_minority":-0.0053,"leader_changes":[{"id":"289","name":"Ladysmith-Oceanside","from":"CON","to":"NDP"},{"id":"294","name":"Maple Ridge East","from":"CON","to":"NDP"},{"id":"318","name":"Richmond-Steveston","from":"CON","to":"NDP"},{"id":"326","name":"Surrey-Guildford","from":"CON","to":"NDP"}]}}}