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Jeremy Valeriote (Green MLA, interim leader 2025) runs again; CentreBC runs Dan Wood.","v1":"Not adjusted in v1.","why_it_may_matter":"High: Green incumbency is not modelled, so v1 probably understates the Green."}]}],"changes":{"from_file":"2025-05-25_leger.json","average":{"NDP":-0.95,"CON":-0.5,"GRN":-0.47,"ONEBC":1.0,"CENTRE":2.0,"OTH":-1.1},"seat_median":{"NDP":-2.0,"CON":2.0,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"p_majority":{"NDP":-0.0566,"CON":0.0564,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"p_minority":0.0002,"leader_changes":["302"]},"average_series":{"NDP":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-21",null],["2024-10-28",null],["2024-11-04",null],["2024-11-11",null],["2024-11-18",null],["2024-11-25",null],["2024-12-02",null],["2024-12-09",null],["2024-12-16",null],["2024-12-23",null],["2024-12-30",null],["2025-01-06",null],["2025-01-13",null],["2025-01-20",null],["2025-01-27",45.51],["2025-02-03",45.72],["2025-02-10",45.86],["2025-02-17",45.9],["2025-02-24",45.84],["2025-03-03",45.7],["2025-03-10",45.49],["2025-03-17",45.26],["2025-03-24",45.04],["2025-03-31",44.89],["2025-04-07",44.85],["2025-04-14",44.86],["2025-04-21",44.86],["2025-04-28",44.82],["2025-05-05",44.74],["2025-05-12",44.64],["2025-05-19",44.51],["2025-05-26",44.36],["2025-06-02",44.21],["2025-06-09",44.05]],"CON":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-21",null],["2024-10-28",null],["2024-11-04",null],["2024-11-11",null],["2024-11-18",null],["2024-11-25",null],["2024-12-02",null],["2024-12-09",null],["2024-12-16",null],["2024-12-23",null],["2024-12-30",null],["2025-01-06",null],["2025-01-13",null],["2025-01-20",null],["2025-01-27",41.59],["2025-02-03",41.53],["2025-02-10",41.5],["2025-02-17",41.49],["2025-02-24",41.51],["2025-03-03",41.57],["2025-03-10",41.7],["2025-03-17",41.94],["2025-03-24",42.42],["2025-03-31",43.24],["2025-04-07",44.14],["2025-04-14",44.6],["2025-04-21",44.49],["2025-04-28",44.03],["2025-05-05",43.42],["2025-05-12",42.8],["2025-05-19",42.24],["2025-05-26",41.8],["2025-06-02",41.48],["2025-06-09",41.29]],"GRN":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-21",null],["2024-10-28",null],["2024-11-04",null],["2024-11-11",null],["2024-11-18",null],["2024-11-25",null],["2024-12-02",null],["2024-12-09",null],["2024-12-16",null],["2024-12-23",null],["2024-12-30",null],["2025-01-06",null],["2025-01-13",null],["2025-01-20",null],["2025-01-27",9.35],["2025-02-03",9.31],["2025-02-10",9.31],["2025-02-17",9.37],["2025-02-24",9.49],["2025-03-03",9.65],["2025-03-10",9.8],["2025-03-17",9.88],["2025-03-24",9.78],["2025-03-31",9.37],["2025-04-07",8.77],["2025-04-14",8.35],["2025-04-21",8.26],["2025-04-28",8.39],["2025-05-05",8.61],["2025-05-12",8.83],["2025-05-19",9.01],["2025-05-26",9.12],["2025-06-02",9.16],["2025-06-09",9.14]],"ONEBC":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-21",null],["2024-10-28",null],["2024-11-04",null],["2024-11-11",null],["2024-11-18",null],["2024-11-25",null],["2024-12-02",null],["2024-12-09",null],["2024-12-16",null],["2024-12-23",null],["2024-12-30",null],["2025-01-06",null],["2025-01-13",null],["2025-01-20",null],["2025-01-27",null],["2025-02-03",null],["2025-02-10",null],["2025-02-17",null],["2025-02-24",null],["2025-03-03",null],["2025-03-10",null],["2025-03-17",null],["2025-03-24",null],["2025-03-31",null],["2025-04-07",null],["2025-04-14",null],["2025-04-21",null],["2025-04-28",null],["2025-05-05",null],["2025-05-12",null],["2025-05-19",null],["2025-05-26",null],["2025-06-02",null],["2025-06-09",1.0]],"CENTRE":[["2024-10-20",null],["2024-10-21",null],["2024-10-28",null],["2024-11-04",null],["2024-11-11",null],["2024-11-18",null],["2024-11-25",null],["2024-12-02",null],["2024-12-09",null],["2024-12-16",null],["2024-12-23",null],["2024-12-30",null],["2025-01-06",null],["2025-01-13",null],["2025-01-20",null],["2025-01-27",null],["2025-02-03",null],["2025-02-10",null],["2025-02-17",null],["2025-02-24",null],["2025-03-03",null],["2025-03-10",null],["2025-03-17",null],["2025-03-24",null],["2025-03-31",null],["2025-04-07",null],["2025-04-14",null],["2025-04-21",null],["2025-04-28",null],["2025-05-05",null],["2025-05-12",null],["2025-05-19",null],["2025-05-26",null],["2025-06-02",null],["2025-06-09",2.0]]},"file":"2025-06-09_research-co.json","publication":{"date":"2025-06-09","path":"by-date/2025-06-09.json","snapshots_that_day":["2025-06-09_research-co.json"],"new_polls":[{"date":"2025-06-09","firm":"Research Co.","sample":803,"values":{"NDP":43,"CON":42,"GRN":8,"ONEBC":1,"CENTRE":2}}],"previous_date":"2025-05-25","changes":{"from_date":"2025-05-25","from_file":"2025-05-25_leger.json","average":{"NDP":-0.95,"CON":-0.5,"GRN":-0.47,"ONEBC":1.0,"CENTRE":2.0,"OTH":-1.1},"seat_median":{"NDP":-2.0,"CON":2.0,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"p_majority":{"NDP":-0.0566,"CON":0.0564,"GRN":0.0,"ONEBC":0.0,"CENTRE":0.0,"OTH":0.0},"p_minority":0.0002,"leader_changes":[{"id":"302","name":"North Island","from":"NDP","to":"CON"}]}}}