Tag: danielle smith

Mapping the results of the 2019 Alberta provincial election

Map release day is always a good day. I’ve been griding away putting together a provincial map of the 2019 Alberta provincial election results. In this election, the newly formed United Conservative Party won a majority government under the leadership of Jason Kenney, defeating incumbent Premier Rachel Notley and the NDP.

The 2019 Alberta provincial election results map with a preview of the vote distribution of Fort Mcmurray-Lac La Biche

You can browse the provincial result riding by riding and click/tap each riding to zoom in and view the results poll-by-poll at a level which describes how different neighbourhoods in Calgary and Edmonton (for example) voted in this election.

The Edmonton-Riverview results map shows an NDP win, but colouring the map on strength (green) and weakness (red) of the United Conservative Party reveals which neighbourhoods where the party that would win the election turned out their vote

Expanding the “poll winner” control will allow you to colour code the riding polls by the strength of each party which contested the riding. Even the relative strength of parties and candidates with little hope can be discerned with ease.

The Calgary-Buffalo map shows the polls where the NDP and UCP battled for downtown Calgary. Expanding the tooltip at the bottom right allows us to see voter turnout poll-by-poll

A helpful tooltip that shows a pie chart of each riding – and at the poll level, each poll – can be expanded to list the candidates and voter turnout for each part of the province.

You may also find it useful to search for ridings by name or by candidate using the search bar at the top of the maps page. Each riding also shows adjacent ridings at the bottom of the page which makes it easy to browse other contests nearby.

A close up of the Edmonton-Gold Bar results map shows houses and apartment buildings. Get a street-level view of the results of the 2019 Alberta provincial election!

The unification of the Progressive Conservative party and the Wildrose certainly changed the political map if you compare the results to 2015 and to 2012. In 2019, a sea of blue with one island of orange in Edmonton with a peppering of orange in Calgary and Lethbridge is the sum of the 2019 map.

The 2015 Alberta provincial election results map shows the NDP defeat of the Progressive Conservative party with the Wildrose in Official Opposition

The 2012 Alberta provincial election results map shows the contest between Alison Redford‘s PCs and Danielle Smith‘s Wildrose party.

So, do take a look! The United Conservative Party’s leadership race is underway after the resignation of Jason Kenney as party leader. How will the party fare against the NDP in the upcoming 2023 Provincial election? Party strategists may find these maps helpful to understand the historical context of politics in each region of Alberta and how the vote has evolved over the past decade.

On a technical note, I switched the maps over from raster to vector format meaning they should look smooth at any magnification. I hope to talk more about that in a later post. As a fun side-effect, you can also tilt the maps!

Downtown Calgary looking south showing UCP areas of UCP strength

One or the other

There’s an election in Canada. And the classic divide is between two parties.

One party has been endorsed by the National Post, the other by the Globe and Mail.

One party accuses the other of racism, sexism and homophobia, while the other party acuses the other of runaway spending, patronage and corruption.

One party is supported by Preston Manning, the other by Joe Clark.

One party is looking to end a political dynasty, the other is desperately looking to hold on to the same.

One party advises voters cast ballots based on their values, the other urges voters to vote strategically to stop their opponents.

One party raises issues relevant to the actual interests of the electorate, the other raises red herrings such as abortion and same-sex marriage.

One party has support in a diversity of places, the other is dug in in urban centres.

One party has the support of small business owners and frontline workers, while the other has traded favours for union support.

One party is rooted in Alberta’s character, while the other takes direction from downtown Toronto.

One could have been describing the past,

or the present.

I never thought they’d stoop so low

The Alberta election is in its last week and it’s been an angry and desperate one for the PC Party of Alberta. At the outset of the campaign, polls showed that party and their chief rivals on the right — the Wildrose Party — neck and neck. And then there was an errant tweet from a staffer in the Premier’s office slamming Wildrose’s leader Danielle Smith for commenting on family policy while have to the audacity of doing so while being childless. Wildrose rode a tide of incredulous disbelief at the callous and personal nature of the PC gaffe and found themselves a clear 10+ points ahead of the PCs.

The campaign has focused a spotlight on Smith and her party which threatens to dislodge a party that has enjoyed 41 years of uninterrupted rule in Edmonton. And in the last week, a desperate effort to stop the bleeding. It’s kitchen sink week for the PCs in the Alberta election campaign and the main strategy has been to play the downtown Toronto Liberal strategy of demonizing conservatives that worked up until 2006.

Indeed, some of the very same campaign workers putting in extended hours for Alison Redford’s PCs have borne the same attacks themselves and against their political heroes from Preston Manning to Stephen Harper. The success of the current government in Ottawa was largely built on the legacy that came from Canada’s cradle of conservatism: Alberta. Today, those campaign workers are gritting their teeth as they retweet and share Warren Kinsella’s articles accusing their conservative cousins in Wildrose of having a “hidden agenda”.

I had (jokingly) remarked earlier last week that we should soon expect to see a “Soldiers in Our Streets” style of ad as the PCs flail desperately to recover and pull out all of the stops to stop the Wildrose momentum. Here is the latest (unsigned) offering that reeks of PC Alberta desperation (UPDATE: source explained here):

The ad doesn’t suggest that soldiers will occupy the streets of Calgary, however, it does have a militaristic drumbeat at the end. The piece is offensive to Albertans, Canadians and conservatives on a number of fronts.

“oil worshipping, old guard, right-wing, gun-toting, old-school Albertans”

in a mock country/redneck accent “Hi, I’m from Alberta!”

“I don’t want to paint [Wildrose] all the same, cause I’m not like that (but I am, so here goes!)”

“BFFs with Stephen Harper!”

“Danielle Smith thinks The Flintstone’s is historically accurate”

“Danielle Smith… I heard her bus has tit wheels”

“So, fuck it. I’m voting PC. Latino-ass me is voting PC”

“Separation Party… vote for them [if Wildrose doesn’t have a chance in your riding, else vote PC]”

If you’re a conservative and you’re supporting PC, it’s pretty clear that the braintrust behind this ad still regards you as worthless. Were you annoyed when Stockwell Day was the subject of an attack that smacked of religious bigotry, you rube? Did you support the elimination of the gun-registry, you hick? Are you BFF’s with Stephen Harper, you mouth-breather? You’re worse than dirt according to this professional video that is encouraging you to vote PC.

The Progressive Conservative Party has lost their right to call themselves “conservative” as they are clearly running against those that hold conservative values. This “progressive” party and/or their supporters think that sexism is fair game if it’s against a conservative woman running for Premier. Tit wheels! Hilarious. She doesn’t have children either! Latinos are also on notice that the left thinks that their group casually swears in a streetwise manner (yo), votes in a block, and doesn’t think like individuals informed by their own values. In conservative circles (we’ve been well trained), we call that racism.

Alberta is on the cusp of electing its first libertarian Premier. What a refreshing concept that is in a province whose elites are losing their minds at the prospect of losing power to someone who believes that everyone should be free of others telling them how to think.