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April 21, 2011

Game Changer

They’ve been popping organic champagne corks in the NDP war room this week as poll after poll is showing that party ahead of the Liberals in a race for second place.

The surge of the NDP seems to be most pronounced in Quebec where there are certainly more than a few former NDP staffers, thinking they were taking one for the team, who may yet find themselves with seats in the House of Commons come May 3rd.

The larger effect of all of this is of course the psychological block experienced by many on the left regarding cheating on their idealism to act pragmatic. For those that have traditionally held their nose voting Liberal to “stop Harper”, this week has been a game changer for the NDP.

What happened? Jack Layton gave phenomenal back-to-back performances in the debates. Walking into this campaign, with the visible assistance of a cane, reporters had asked him how his health would fare during a grueling 35 days while leaders crisscross the country on an intense schedule. Instead, we’ve learned that Layton may toss his cane aside by election day.

Indeed, Layton now appears to be dancing circles around the Liberal campaign led by a leader many in the press expected to do better given lower expectations set by 2 years of negative advertising against him. Instead, the Harvard professor was schooled by Layton in the moment of the English language leaders debate that was the closest thing we saw to a “knock-out blow” in those two nights. Called out for his poor attendance record, Layton asked rhetorically how Michael Ignatieff could speak convincingly on democracy if he didn’t show up for votes in the Commons.

Many leftwing voters are now asking how Ignatieff can represent their views if he’s not present for votes. And as we’re seeing in the polls, many wonder if Ignatieff can do much to stop a majority Conservative government.

The other fatal blunder for Ignatieff this week came during an interview with CBC’s Peter Mansbridge when the Liberal leader admitted that regarding a coalition, Mr. Harper could try to form government yet if he could not command the confidence of the House, Mr. Ignatieff would try to form a government with the support of the other parties, including the Bloc Quebecois. Yet most Canadians are more grounded than Ignatieff appeared to be during that interview. It is widely understood that such cooperation would come with concessions to any partner that would support the second-place Liberals in the formation of a new government. And while Mr. Ignatieff is willfully ignorant that such concessions would relate to cabinet, Canadians remember the last time the Liberals negotiated a scenario for taking power without the support of the majority or plurality of the electorate.

Canadians are going into the Easter weekend tomorrow with a few truths to consider. First and foremost, Stephen Harper will be the next Prime Minister. Second, if Michael Ignatieff cannot be counted on to stop Stephen Harper from forming a majority, left-leaning Canadians will look to the much more likable and ideological Jack Layton to oppose Mr. Harper in the 41st parliament. Third, Canadians will consider a coalition government to be explicitly on the table as Layton may be in an increased position of strength to negotiate its outcome.

This entry was authored by at 06:15 PM | Tweet this | Comments (33)
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  • John

    I would say there are two parties popping champagne bottles and two crying in their beer right now.

  • http://www.stephentaylor.ca Stephen Taylor

    Agreed

  • Anonymous

    jack was the game changer at the debate,while Iggy threw more gas on his fire at the CBC interview…this explains his 30 minute informercal this Sunday

  • John

    it’s funny though because if you look at the schedule for Iggy’s infomercial it’s all wrong. Who the hell is watching tv on easter sunday at noon? Seriously.

  • Anonymous

    other Liberals….maybe!!

  • Anonymous

    If Jacko gets to be official leader of the Opposition, Iggy is toast, the LPC will implode in a flurry of back stabbing and will support Harper for at least 18 months until they can recover enough to select a new leader.

  • http://twitter.com/soundofmusak soundofmusak

    At minute 4:00 of Iggy’s interview with Peter Mansbridge, he says that he fought in two elections and won the confidence of the people.

    Which elections has he fought? Won the confidence of the people, how? Who are these people?

    Did I sleep through this?

    Answers, please, I beg you. What did I miss?

  • http://www.stephentaylor.ca Stephen Taylor

    I think these numbers will cause LPC-NDP votes splits and may move Stephen Harper into majority territory.

  • http://www.stephentaylor.ca Stephen Taylor

    Perhaps in his riding…

  • http://twitter.com/soundofmusak soundofmusak

    Yes, of course. Duh. Carry on.

  • Roy Elsworth

    I thought at 40 percent hoarper could win at least 155 seats so if he is at 43 wouldn’t that give hima about 160 seats

  • Anonymous

    So we now know the miracle that Mr Taylor will be praying for this Easter.

    (btw, you don’t have to be left-leaning to dislike Harper or his methods)

  • Brett

    He didn’t fight anything. The libs could have run a poted plant in that riding and won. What noone has taken Iffy to task over is the fact that he did not fight for and win the Liberal leadership; he was annointed. Much like the way he is trying to become Prime Minister, because the polls at dissolution, we were headed for at least a Tory Minority.

  • http://profiles.google.com/burpnrun Erik Sorenson

    Plan A of the coalition was for one of them to achieve a minority. Hopefully liberal. That’s dead.

    Plan B was to hijack Canada’s voting choice and, as a coalition, throw out Harper and sink back into their Liberal entitlements. That’s almost dead, I hope, although we are still scurrying around looking for the elusive silver stake to complete the job.

    Plan C was to transfer the heavy hauling to Jack. That’s underway now. Gush, Gush. I hope they don’t have a Plan D (Duceppe). BTW, Jack will sink after his interview/questioning on Sat at Quebec’s favourite TV show, viewership ~ 2 million. He won’t get puff-ball questions (Bloc will see to that), and his contortions due to different Eng/Fr Canada positions on issues should be highly entertaining. Jack has reached his nadir, and will settle back to a little above his norm, quickly.

    I believe that the Liberals and NDP (and others) started plotting, a very long time ago, the overthrow of voters choices by hijacking democracy (ironically, in the “name of democracy”). Of course, the only way this will work is with the cooperation of the infamous traitor, Duceppe.

    “Anatomy of the Coup”. It’s a short read, backgrounder, and not dull at all. The only one on the net:
    http://burpnrun.blogspot.com/2011/04/anatomy-of-coup.html

  • http://www.renegadetory.com Renegade Tory

    Just goes to show that one should never underestimate the underdog… Jack Layton went into this election low in the polls compared to other elections, he’s lost 4 times in making it as leader of the opposition party, his health was in question and everyone seemed more focused on Iggy as Harper’s rival. He must have realized that the truth was, he and his party had little to lose and decided to give it his all. And it has paid off.

    This is a man who was optimistic from the beginning, even when reporters in the scrum that follwed the English debate seemed to question his unwavering faith in his party. He told them that the NDP were infact on the threshold of a huge breakthrough in Canada. I’m interested to see what happens on e-day.

  • batb

    Not to take anything away from Jack Layton’s surge in the polls (it helps that his main opponent on the left is the Count) but it’s easy to be the hail-fellow-well-met and promise the earth and sky when he’s never going to be in a position where the buck stops with him — and never has been, despite his many years in the HOC.

    I’m sorry. Despite the smile and the aw-shucks, I’m the underdog demeanor, let’s remember that Jack and Olivia cost the taxpayers of Canada $1.2-million last year and defended their taking gross advantage of the the system by saying they’d done nothing illegal (‘sounds like the Coalition folks: “we’re just playing by the rules”).

    Despite all of his and Olivia’s talk about caring about the “little guy” and the “hard-working Canadian family,” it’s clear that their standard of living, one they feel entitled to, is quite a few notches above most of ours. That’s my biggest problem with Jack: he talks the talk but doesn’t walk the talk. There’s a huge credibility gap here.

  • Jon

    But the NDP was in a position where Canadians could see and judge whether or not they would keep their promises if given the power ro implement them. Scrapping corporate tax cuts and repealing the long-gun registry…. two pretty big promises. New Democrats 2 for 2 in the broken promises department.

  • Anonymous

    Id swear the Liberals have been watching to canucks in the last two games.LOSERS

  • Anonymous

    Once should have been enough, but since I’m in the neighbourhood…

    Ignatieff added: “I understand the rules, I respect the rules, I’ll follow them to the letter … what I’m not going to do is form a coalition.”

  • Catherine

    What scares me is what Jack Layton said during his Thursday’s press conference and basically no one is reporting or pursuing it.

    Jack Layton said that he would introduce a bill to have mandatory French only at federally regulated corporations and extending that to federal government offices.

    I had afraid that if this comes to fruition – there will be ill will for Quebec and may cause a lot of uncertainty. Why is no one pursuing this?

  • http://profiles.google.com/burpnrun Erik Sorenson

    Folks, call me paranoid, but I think there’s A LOT more to the Coup/Coalition than meets the eye. And it’s not good. For those interested in stopping the hijacking of OUR democracy, please give a gander at: “The Real Co-Conspirators Behind the Coup”:

    http://burpnrun.blogspot.com/2011/04/real-co-conspirators-behind-2011-coup.html

    and tell me if I’m wrong. Please.

  • batb (been around the block)

    I think you’re right, Erik Sorenson. I’m no insider but I’ve noticed the drift to the socialist Left in Canada over the past 40 years and an increasing lack of civility in politics, especially when the Left isn’t in power. (I was in my early 20s when this all seemed to start, and am prould to say that I never voted for Trudeau: My spidey sense told me there was something askew with him and his Liberal$. I did vote NDP once! (I had a heart then, but I now have a functioning brain!)

    There are a lot of entitled groups listed by burp ‘n’ run, most of them sucking off the public teat, who are determined that the gravy train they’ve been on continue. Any government — and it wouldn’t be one led by the LPC, NDP, or the Bloc — that would ask Canadians to be responsible and accountable for their own lives with the minimum of governance interference — I’m counting on this philosophy to be put into practice if the CPC get a majority — is anathema to these folks.

    There seem to be a fair number of thuggish tactics being employed to ensure the forming of this coalition, to ensure that Prime Minister Harper and the CPC don’t form a majority government, which is why I’m praying. Nothing is impossible with God and it appears that the “armies” arrayed against PMSH and his government are legion.

    This prayer is powerful, so anyone who prays might consider using it:

    Saint Michael the Archangel,
    defend us in this day of battle.
    Be our protection against the wickedness and snares of the devil.
    May God rebuke him, we humbly pray;
    and do Thou, O Prince of the Heavenly Host -
    by the power of God -
    cast into hell, Satan and all the evil spirits,
    who roam through the world seeking the ruin of souls.

    This sums up the situation burp ‘n’ run has described pretty succinctly:

    Finally, be strong in the Lord and in his mighty power. Put on the full armor of God so that you can take your stand against the devil’s schemes. For our struggle is not against flesh and blood, but against the rulers, against the authorities, against the powers of this dark world and against the spiritual forces of evil in the heavenly realms. Therefore put on the full armor of God, so that when the day of evil comes, you may be able to stand your ground, and after you have done everything, to stand. Stand firm then, with the belt of truth buckled around your waist, with the breastplate of righteousness in place, and with your feet fitted with the readiness that comes from the gospel of peace. In addition to all this, take up the shield of faith, with which you can extinguish all the flaming arrows of the evil one. Take the helmet of salvation and the sword of the Spirit, which is the word of God. ~ Ephesians 6: 10-17

    I am not saying that those on the Left are evil. I do sense, however, a strong spirit of repression and rebellion against what our democracy has stood for up to now: freedom of expression, freedom of religion, freedom of association, etc. When you begin to feel, as many c/Conservatives do, that it’s unsafe to voice your opinions in the public square because there will be negative repercussions, “Huston/Ottawa, we have a problem.”

    Thanks, ES, for the link to burp ‘n’ run. ‘Very informative.

  • Anonymous

    What scares me is what Jack Layton said during his Thursday’s press conference and basically no one is reporting or pursuing it.

    maybe because it simply isn’t true?

  • Anonymous

    tell me if I’m wrong. Please.

    You’re wrong. There is no “coalition” in the wings, and Harper himself has been the single biggest threat to Canadian democracy.

    Also, anything that gets the bat flinging holy water about can’t be good.

  • Anonymous

    I do sense, however, a strong spirit of repression and rebellion against what our democracy has stood for up to now: freedom of expression, freedom of religion, freedom of association, etc. When you begin to feel, as many c/Conservatives do, that it’s unsafe to voice your opinions in the public square because there will be negative repercussions,

    Oh puleeze.. do you have ANYTHING to back that up? Have you EVER had anything to back that up? You, yes even you, have all of that freedom now, and more besides.

    Keep in mind that your right to free expression also includes other’s right to call BS when they hear it from you.

  • batb

    My life experience backs it up.

    Call BS all you want, kenn2. I know what I know — and the lovely thing is you can’t touch that.

  • batb

    LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    God bless you, kenn2.

  • batb

    My spidey sense is saying that Jack Layton’s surge in the polls in Quebec is because he’s in cahoots with Gilles Duceppe.

    NDP vote/Bloc vote? All in the service of the Coalition of the Three Thugs.

    Say it ain’t so, Jack … Gilles?

    My apologies to Anonymous:

    Jack and Gilles went up the hill
    To fetch a whack of power,
    Gilles said done!
    I’ll give you some –
    And Jack became man of the hour.

  • Anonymous

    Thank you. She has, and being a Canadian is not the least of Her blessings.

  • John Dobbin

    I am wondering if this is the end of the Liberal Party in Canada and the return of two party politics.

    http://johndobbin.blogspot.com/2011/04/end-of-liberal-party.html

  • DougM

    There is more than a note of hilarity here. If the Liberals implode, as their record so richly deserves, then we will be back to a four (three, really) party Parliament. Not somuch of a surprise as most of the time, a party stuck in the middle of two others tends to dissappear in any case as it gets eaten by both ends. The good news is that Canadian’s will actually be presented with two main options, a Government of the right, or a Socialist one, rather than two posers who claim to be entirely different before the election and entirely identical after it as they know Canadians will show them the door if they tell the truth.
    Moreover, one has to remember that Taliban Jack and his darling bride Olivia were both City Councilors for the City of Toronto and it was only after they had helped destroy the economics of that City that they entered the Federal fray seeing bigger dollar signs and therefore a bigger target to bring down.
    So the interesting thing here is that in past elections we have seen the left suggest strategic voting is the way to go. Now it seems that small L liberals will in all likelyhood be voting strategically for the Conservatives in order to keep Jack hands off the treasury and the Country suffering the same fate that Toronto did under their fiscal guidance.

  • batb

    Yeah, Doug, for all Jack Layton’s hail-fellow-well-met jocularity — he’s never had the buck stop with him, except our bucks which make it into his bank account, so it’s easy to be relaxed and aw-shucks friendly — he and Olivia are sucking the life and dollars out of Canadians faster than a bloodsucker drains a fish.

    What’s so offensive about Laydown/Chowdown is their faux protestations of care and concern for “the little guy,” for “the hard-working Canadian family.” Yeah, right, Jack and Olivia: first subsidized housing then over-the-top expenses charged to the Canadian taxpayer because “its not illegal.” They’ve got great big crocodile smiles on their faces while they live a lifestyle totally out of reach to most Canadians, on our dime, amounting to $1.2 million last year, while pretending to really care about us.

  • Anonymous

    …while they live a lifestyle totally out of reach to most Canadians like all other federal MPs, on our dime, while pretending to really care about us.

    Don’t hate the player, hate the game…

    Funny. I never considered spending half your life flying Rapidair or sitting in airports to be an aspirational lifestyle.

    Y’know, this is another area where Conservatives could lead by example. Just sayin’.