Fact: “The Liberal Opposition plans to introduce a non-confidence motion in the House of Commons on Monday” (source)
But: Notice of motions are introduced regularly by the opposition. Motions are always introduced in advance. Generally five motions are introduced. The Liberals having a confidence motion on the table are simply having the confidence motion on the table as an option. Potential motions must prested in advance and today (Friday) is the earliest opportunity for the opposition to have that option on the table for Monday. They may not actually move on voting on the motion.
Speculation: Anybody wonder why Stephane Dion didn’t immediately step down after the election? His people have been quiet on his prospects as leader of a coalition government. In the Liberal constitution, if I remember correctly, the only way Dion can be replaced in a pinch is if he either dies or resigns. If Dion doesn’t resign, the Liberals may govern under Dion if a coalition is formed.
Fiction: A new Bloc-Liberal-NDP coalition government would be viable beyond their agreement on the $1.95-per-vote subsidy.
Speculation: If the Liberals-NDP believe they can form a coalition with tangential Bloc support, the GG may have no other option to call an election as 77+37=114 LPC/NDP vs. CPC’s 143. The GG may see this as the only stable option.
Fact: The Conservatives (in the broader picture) want to move forward on the economy. The opposition wanted to hold the government back on the campaign welfare package.
Fact: The Throne Speech passed in the House yesterday after the economic statement was read. The opposition approved the government’s mandate knowing full well that they’d be bringing it to the brink this weekend.
Fact: On mandates, if the Liberals were to form government, they would do so after receiving the lowest proportion of votes in their party’s history. Further, if Dion does resign and if Ignatieff does become Prime Minister, he would do so without having been presented to Canadians during the democratic process that we call elections. Talk about an affront to democracy!
Fact: The opposition accused the government of not having a plan for the economy during an election and now they accuse the government of the same now. What has changed? The Conservatives now want to end campaign welfare.
Fact: Cooler heads recognize that the American elephant will move on the economy in new year and that any action with respect to our integrated economies would be better done in coordination rather than prematurely.
Speculation: Canadians will not accept a surprise Liberal-NDP coalition backed by a party that wants to destroy the country that would stand to be dismantled under the proposed funding changes of the Conservative government. By opposing campaign welfare reform, the Liberals are sustaining the existence of the Bloc for their own ambition. Canadians will not accept a surprise Prime Minister unvetted by the electorate.
Speculation: What are the terms of a NDP-backed Liberal coalition government? Cancellation of the $50 Billion corporate tax cut? What are the Bloc’s terms?
Stephen Taylor is a scientist, political analyst and a blogger. Taylor writes here regularly and is the founder of bloggingtories.ca. Taylor has contributed to Macleans, CTV, talk radio and has been a featured speaker on new media at numerous events including the Western Standard Cruise and the Forum for Public Policy. In December 2008, Taylor organized Rally for Canada, a series of rallies held coast-to-coast to protest the proposed coalition government.
November 28th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
You guys must be shitting your pants if this is the best you can come up with. I hear the PMO is imploding.
November 28th, 2008 at 12:59 pm
I say to the Conservatives, drop the welfare for your party and we will all donate more. Let the other parties look foolish by still taking their 1.95 a vote in tough economic times.
November 28th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
You must have great sources in the PMO. LOL
November 28th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
Yes we can?
November 28th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
I love how we (the electorate) are just sitting by and watching what the opposition are going to do. I voted for a conservative government, and that vote paid off! – Is there not something wrong with the fact that parliamentarians of the parties that LOST are making backroom deals to undermine the will of the people?
Then again, this may be very typical for Canadians. We sit back and get screwed and say ‘Oh well, our time will come again.” OUR TIME IS HERE! Our will as electors was passed on October 14th and we can just sit back while this backwards coalition is formed right before our eyes….Shame.
So when do we, the people get our say?
November 28th, 2008 at 1:21 pm
Well…isn't this an interesting turn of events…the Liberals now want to form a goverment with 26% of the popular vote and spend us into deficit…they have no plan, they have made no recommendations…they just want to throw good money after bad…
The auto industry…well lets spend more money producing cars that nobody wants to buy…after all isn't that what they did for years…
Dion and the LIberals are hungry for power….the Green Shaft…and he apparently will do anything to get it…even crawl in bed with the separatists.
Wasn't it just a week ago that Dion mocked the NDP for wanting an election…eerrr…that was before taxpayers were being asked to stop giving their hard earned tax dollars to political parties including those who want to break up the country…it really just boils down to entitlements doesn't it…certainly not sacrifice certainly not ethics….just self interest….
November 28th, 2008 at 1:47 pm
A Question:
Is it possible, that the GG would rule that she will neither dissolve Parliament, nor establish a coalition Government, but would force the parliamentarians to establish a workable/agreeable arrangement , or , is she constitutionally bound to either dissolve or establish a coalition Government?
November 28th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
One fact i would like to know is the real cost to taxpayers of deficit spending.
I once read somewhere that for the gov't to “invest” a dollar, it must collect $1.40 to account for the 30% burns off the top os every dollar collected.
Moreover, if the gov't is in deficit and the gov't has to borrow against future taxpayer “earnings,” what is the real cost to taxpayers over the years until the debt is repaid?
How much return on investment do we need to see to justify massive deficit spending?
I am not convinced of the value of bailouts and so-called “stimulus” spending, but i wish the politicians would spell it out for the rest of us knuckledraggers.
November 28th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
The thing that concerns me the most is that all the scenarios dealing with the question of “what will the GG do?” assume that she is a neutral umpire of sorts, who will in every case do what is just and right. The fact is that she is a Liberal appointee and beholden to the LPC for her present position. As far as I can determine there is no means provided for removal of a Governor General without the Queen's consent; therefore it would seem that, unless our 82-year-old monarch chooses to involve herself in a colonial matter, Mme. Jean is free to act in this matter as she sees fit – even that means allowing a coalition of 114 MPs to attempt to form a government with a party of 143 MPs as opposition. (This speculation is open to dispute by anyone with corrective facts, of course…)
November 28th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
Funny that this started over $1.95 per vote, something that even Liberal voters aren't willing to donate to their party. $50 buck a year plus volunteer time go from me to the Conservatives, while the Liberals can't even raise the money for a decent leadership campaign.
How on earth is Broadbent and Chretien picking Dion as the leader of this “coalition”: Why on earth would they put the man with public approval ratings lower than Layton last election as the centerpiece?
I'm starting to wonder if maybe the Liberals and Conservatives aren't in cahoots to give the Conservatives a majority? Seriously, what soft Liberal would vote for a Liberal/Socialist/Separatist coalition?
November 28th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
Calling on Chretien for help? a man who took $five hundred million of taxpayers money to cancel the helicopters which Mulroney purchased for our troops. Apparently our troops are not worth the best which their lives depend on.
Not once did the MSM come to the aid of our troops against chretien. Who can we depend on? only this prime minister has taken unpon his shoulders the liberals years of neglect to the military; he had to rebuild the force which should have been done years ago. And the opposition wonder why the overspending well there's one reason. their is more.
November 28th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
Stephen, to look at the TV coverage of Ed Broadbent in his winter cap going into the Parliament and talk of Chretien collaborating with him on a plot to take down the Conservative government one would think terrible things were happening in this country.
It's unbelievable to see such outlandish behaviour and desperation for power by an Opposition in this democracy. If we were to react as over the top as the Opposition Parties are we'd be in a civil war.
It outrageous and we may have to take to the streets to defend our democratic right to the government we elected.
It was somewhat calming to hear the Prime Minister explain what the Opposition is up to and he did look calm.
Of course, one Don Boudria on MDL opined falsely that Mr Harper looked panicky, showing the depth of their depravity. The Liberal bankruptcy runs deep.
November 28th, 2008 at 4:16 pm
Ruth, that might just happen. At any rate,it will certainly spur more of us to donate to the party anyway.
November 28th, 2008 at 5:26 pm
I agree with Liz we may have to take to the streets to get the government we elected!!
November 28th, 2008 at 5:44 pm
I agree as well. We cannot just sit back and watch as this happens. We should start protesting this, if it should happen
November 28th, 2008 at 10:17 pm
What I don't understand is how two major federal parties can hold a straight face when their apparent leaders are being sidelined by Ghosts of Parliaments Past. Broadbent and Chretien were so much more popular in their day than Layton or Dion. If returning to Parliaments of old were a good solution for leadership, why didn't Joe Clark lead the triumphant return of the Tories to the Prime Minister's Office?
November 29th, 2008 at 5:06 am
Dion bedding down with Layton and Duceppe holding the balance of power is one nightmare scenario and it won't be simple pillow fights. Duceppe is only interested in what's good for Quebec, that leaves an impasse on important issues. They'll get no support from the Conservatives.
The whole thing will blow up and the country will be the worse for it. The GG wil have to be well advised on this one. We can't be put in the hands of warring factions being held up by Separatists.
If there were an award for hypocrisy, it would be a toss up between Dion and Layton.
November 29th, 2008 at 5:09 am
This is the nightmare I was dreaming about ever since I learned that it was constitutional to have coalition governments on the recommendation of the GG. Considering that the GG is completely unqualified to make any sort of meaningful decision on this coalition and the future of Canada, I believe if this actually does happen, she will probably dissolve parliament rather than allow these clowns to govern anything. It would be completely undemocratic for this sort of thing to happen, and would really call for the abolition of the prerogative powers that the GG has. The constitution needs to be updated so badly, it has been too long. I mean this sort of CRAP could fly back in the day when voting was a public affair and elections where bought by whiskey but not now.
Also, it is pretty amazing that this country is the only country in the G8 that isn't tanking, and yet these ignorant fools are so convinced that their economic policies that have totally failed in Europe are best for this country in this time. Talk about partisan ignorance, or maybe just stupidity. I do not want the damn auto industry which have made garbage vehicles for the past 30 years to be bailed out so that they can continue to disrespect the consumer. I know many people would be out of work but this is better in the long run. They are not sustainable under any sort of deal/contract, and who knows, maybe if one of them goes under, like GM, the others (FORD, CHRYSLER) could somehow soak up the excess workers and consumers. Stop making cars that start leaking oil and anti freeze after 150,000 km and people will start buying them!
November 29th, 2008 at 5:26 am
So which dozen Liberal MP's would rather support the Conservative confidence votes than support the madness of governing with the NDP and Bloc for a millisecond before it all falls apart?
November 29th, 2008 at 5:34 am
The PM was angry because his bad judgement is now on display for all to see. He will maintain power, no doubt, but he will be seriously diminished which is what its all about. His desire to circumvent due process by sliding stiff arm stuff into bills has just caught up with him. This man is nasty, mean and very unethical. The G&M article this am describing him as a guy who wakes up every morning with the goal of destroying his opponents is not a viable leader.
The $1.95 needs to go but there needs to be a full re-evaluation by ALL PARTIES in order to find the right party funding formula. The Tories obviously don't have support from the majority of MP's and therefore need to discuss the issue with them. That's what house committees are for and in this case using the speaker's chair might be the right setting to make this work fairly for the next generation or so.
I never agreed with Chretien's move but it was done in the right spirit in order to take corruption out of the process.
In any event its getting down to the fact the tories are having their once in a generation chance to screw up things and they are well on their way.
November 29th, 2008 at 6:39 am
There will not be a coalition. The risk for the Libs. is that they would be branded as the party that negotiated with sepratists to govern the country for a while . If it stuck it would be for all of history. No party wants the label as the party of traitors.
November 29th, 2008 at 6:40 am
This is really sad. I voted Conservative, got a Conservative government and now we're seeing a take over just after the election. Come on!
This idea that we should hand out billions in corporate welfare, raise taxes and go into deficits absolutely disgusts me. The government should be cutting and they don't like seeing their free money source cut.
There's things that I like about our Canadian system and there are things that I hate. I suppose if there is any light from this, Canadians are really going to question this whole “Governor General” position. An appointed person with so much power. Most people don't care, but now they're forced to deal with it because it might happen.
I know I wouldn't want to be the Governor General. It really doesn't matter what she does, there's going to be people on both sides pissed off. If she lets a coalition form, people will be pissed off. If she lets an election be called, people will be pissed off.
Maybe this will all lead to some very interesting reform.
November 29th, 2008 at 6:45 am
Funny you guys weren't talking all this subversion of democracy nonsense a few years back,
http://scottdiatribe.canflag.com/2008/11/28/har...
Strange, wonder what happened.
November 29th, 2008 at 7:12 am
Another thought on this and one that I have not heard any speculation about is in the appointing of senators. A coalition gov't even a short lived one could choose senators to fill the void. If Harper sees the likelyhood of a coalition gov't increase would he not be tempted to fill those vacancies in the senate?
November 29th, 2008 at 7:52 am
In order to save the Conservative government, Stephen Harper has to step aside and let Jim Prentice try and form and save the government, by offering an credible alternative to the Liberal-NDP-Bloc coalition.
I don't think making a sacrificial lamb out of Flaherty would work or would be sufficient. Harper and Flaherty both have to go, and Prentice has to take over, with say somebody like Ablonczy as the new Finance Minister.
The party and country should be more important than any single individual. A Harper led government is no longer a credible alternative, and although an election would be the best option, I don't think there is going to be an election.
A Prentice led government has the possibility of gaining confidence of the House.
I think it is the only choice the Conservatives have if they want to prevent the coalition “abomination” of the Lib-NDP-Bloc
November 29th, 2008 at 8:24 am
Tell me when and where…I will be in the streets supporting our ELECTED Conservative Government. I will be bringing friends as well. This whole thing makes me very nervous. To watch the power grab by a party that has it's worst ever showing in an election, scares the hell out of me. Wo do these people think they are, for God sake?
Is Canada's democracy so fragile that it could collapse so easily?
November 29th, 2008 at 8:31 am
There seems to be a fundamental misunderstanding of how our democracy works. You, as an individual voter, do not elect a government. You vote for a Member of Parliament. The sum total of MPs then decides who forms the government. That's exactly what's happened with the formation of this Conservative government and the rules will still be followed should a coalition government be installed. So settle down. There's no need to take to the streets when the rules are still followed.
November 29th, 2008 at 8:44 am
Why is it when Obama was successful at grassroots fundraising it was good but when the Conservatives do it it is bad? Why can't the Liberals do what Obama did?
Obama is the darling of Libs and Dippers !!
November 29th, 2008 at 8:53 am
It's odd to me that you think it would be so terrible for someone with 25% of the vote to head the government but it's OK for someone with 38% of the vote to do it.
I think the GG should force a coalition government every election where no party attains 50% of the vote.
Currently I represent the majority of the country that did not vote Conservative and yet they are allowed to govern. The minority now governs the majority. Thanks not democracy.
November 29th, 2008 at 9:02 am
Another drive-by smear artist — no thought, just feeling and false analogies.
I wonder how you would feel if the Conservatives attempted this? You would be screaming bloody murder…and you know it. Liberals love Hitler analogies, and that case scenario would allow you to use it and with glee.
November 29th, 2008 at 9:38 am
I've been wondering the same thing. I'm sure there are more than a few Liberals upset at even suggesting a coalition with separatists. It would be so sweet to see a dozen Liberal MP's and walk across the floor during the vote of confidence. Wishful thinking maybe, …but you just never know.
November 29th, 2008 at 9:45 am
Funny, I don't recall ANY liberals concerned that they were allowed to govern with a minority a few years ago.
November 29th, 2008 at 9:49 am
They are pro American when it suits them, they love Obama. But they won't follow his example when the libs have to put it a little effort to raise money. They are entitled to their free money.
November 29th, 2008 at 10:09 am
Didn't BobRae say the NDP was a “mistake” .. and now he will be looking at a Minister Layton if not Deputy Prime Minister Layton?!
Wasn't Iggy the Liberal Deputy Leader .. and now he is nothing .. not even considered for a ministry in a Dion-Layton coalition government .. all because he is running for the Liberal leadership due in May'09???
Perhaps Iggy & Bobo should unequivocally declare their fealty to Dion as Liberal leader and next Prime Minister of Canada … and declare that the Liberal leadership is competently filled for the foreseeable future.
November 29th, 2008 at 10:25 am
Stephen FYI . . . . typo . . “77+34=114 ” = 77+37=114
November 29th, 2008 at 10:31 am
D'oh!
November 29th, 2008 at 11:21 am
“Canadians won't accept …” means nothing unless there is an election. A 3-party coalition will proceed without any input from Canadians. I think Harper has gambled foolishly and may lose, and so will we all. Too bad.
November 29th, 2008 at 11:42 am
My understanding is the $1.95 will be included in the enabling legislation for the fiscal update,and it will be a confidence vote. The standings in Parliament are: Cons. 143, Libs. 77, Bloc. 49, NDP 37 & 2 independents, Arthur and Casey – these two generally vote with Cons, in this situation who knows. According to the news, Clarkson (last GG) beleived a Gov,t (Martin) should serve at least 6 months. In this instance to overcome 143 votes all 3 named parties must be clearly on record to maintain a coalition for a reasonable time. Obviously financial demands of the Bloc for Que., Layton's rollback of the Corp taxes, and bailouts of various industry and workers – lumber, autos, and the environment demands seems impossible to maintain.
November 29th, 2008 at 11:47 am
Harper has poisoned Parliament at a time when we can least afford it, and after he had made so many reconciliatory statements that might have won some stability for a year or two. No matter how he tries to spin it, he blew it. As just about every political columnist on all sides of the spectrum have been writing this morning, this action defies logic by inserting such a major change to campaign/political financing at this juncture, without a true debate on how we should fund parties and elections in this country (a valid and important subject for such a debate). This change was not hinted at in the election campaign, in his party consultations, nor in the Throne Speech. This was a grenade that is an affront to democracy itself.
Ironically, Bob Rae participated in just such a quasi-coalition that set one of several precedents for the GG — Peterson government in Ontario after Miller lost confidence of the Ontario Legislature, the classic King-Byng decision that ousted the Liberals in the 30s — to permit the Liberals to form a 2-year government in Ontario (after which he was actually elected Premier). I think this would be the ideal way of moving forward and the GG must accept it if the three parties defeat the government and present a set of letters committing to at least a 2-year pledge not to vote against a true coalition wit a cabinet comprised of members from at least two of the three. The Bloc is a left-of-centre party now more so than a separatist party, so it would be quite at home in such a coalition, or at least supporting a Liberal/NDP coalition government.
Harper and Flaherty have painted themselves into a corner and seem to have forgotten the formed a government with one of the lowest share of popular vote by any government in history: a majority of Canadians actually did vote for this potential coalition government, and with the Bloc's support it would be almost 2-1 over those who voted for the Conservatives!
Harper has certainly lost confidence and does not deserve to lead the country any longer. The neo-Cons from the Harris wing of the party deserve to be purged if indeed the Liberal/NDP coalition emerges.
November 29th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
Approve
Sent from my BlackBerry device on the Rogers Wireless Network
November 29th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
Harper has lost. The Conservative Party loses only if it follows him over the cliff.
The Conservative Caucus has to replace Harper and Flaherty this week. Demand their resignations, and go the the House of Commons with a new PM and a new finance minister.
The only alternative to a Harper minority is NOT a Liberal-NDP-Bloc coalition. It is a Conservative minority fronted by someone other than Harper.
Conservative caucus…make it happen.
Party and country come before the individual. If Harper goes, the Conservative government can survive.
November 30th, 2008 at 5:03 pm
Okay, “Shady dealing from his government brought Canadians the Adscam Sponsorship Scandal” and not only that, Kyoto, Mo Strong and Power Corps.
These guys are Hell bent for leather on getting the Kyoto stuff passed, paid for, and implemented by the Canadian taxpayers and they see that now's their opportunity. What systers. No wonder things are so nasty, so catastrophic. They need our money to invest in China and they have only a couple of more years in which to do this. This is their BIG CHANCE.
This is appalling but so predictable. Let's hope that PMSH and the CPC stay the course, despite the skullduggery and the shills in the MSM. It's getting to be all or nothing, and who in “nice” Canada a would have thunk it? Canadians are being played like a piano by the left. They pretend to care about us but all they really care about are their entitlements.
I hope that they'll soon be exposed for the ethical and moral pygmies they are. But in this Dystopian, Deranged Dominion, dominated, it seems, by the leftie educational, media, and political elites, one never knows, do one?
December 1st, 2008 at 8:56 am
No, you represent yourself. Please don't pretend tht you represent the “majority” of Canadians.
December 1st, 2008 at 9:42 am
Does anybody think that by removing the tax credits for corporations will help to stimulate thhe economy I would like to know how?
If the Canadian Government give subsidies to US owned Auto Manufactures before the US decide how they will handle the subject Canada would just be throwing the money away to possibly bankrupt US companies
As you point out the balance of power in Canada is held by a party dedicated to breaking up Canada & supported in whole by only one of the Ten Provinces, How can we as Canadians have allowed this situation to have happened.
December 1st, 2008 at 4:09 pm
You sound just like the rednecks who voted for McCain. Fox news/ left wing soviet street protestors??
December 3rd, 2008 at 1:56 pm
Hey everyone, a small reaction from the province of Quebec… I must say i'm a little frighten about all the fuss you guys are doing about this… Let's all rationalize this, please keep the weapons in their rack for god's sake !! You want some facts… here they are…
First … this crisis was brought by a stupid prime minister who simply forgot that he is not a majority government… He might be a majority in Manitoba… but he is not in Canada… so he had to get at least one of the opposition party on his side… that's the rules of our country…
Second… Like everybody else in this country, the majority of quebecer aren't interrested to see Stephane Dion as prime minister….
Third… Even if that doesn't please you, (and believe me I didn't vote for them either) The bloc Quebecois have been elected and are representing their canadian electors. Their seat at the house of commons has the same importance as any westerners seat…
Let's face it, Harper created this mess, only him can stop it… Why cant he be humble for a second and ask canadians for forgiveness… Say he was wrong, promise he wont do it again, be like Obama in the state somebody who will unite governement instead of dividing a country…
He already recognized implicitely that his economic review was a very bad one and backed on almost every of his propositions… Why must he go on putting oil on an already intensly burning fire…
Nobody wants a dictatorship in Ottawa, and nobody wants a lousy coalition either… Why is it that this government not able to make it work !! it's not just the liberals !! it's not just the bloc !!! I cant believe that Harper isn't able to create a coalition with at least one of the opposition parties and make it work !!!
January 31st, 2009 at 4:37 pm
nice article! nice site. you're in my rss feed now
keep it up