Fact, fiction and speculation

Fact: “The Liberal Opposition plans to introduce a non-confidence motion in the House of Commons on Monday” (source)

But: Notice of motions are introduced regularly by the opposition. Motions are always introduced in advance. Generally five motions are introduced. The Liberals having a confidence motion on the table are simply having the confidence motion on the table as an option. Potential motions must prested in advance and today (Friday) is the earliest opportunity for the opposition to have that option on the table for Monday. They may not actually move on voting on the motion.

Speculation: Anybody wonder why Stephane Dion didn’t immediately step down after the election? His people have been quiet on his prospects as leader of a coalition government. In the Liberal constitution, if I remember correctly, the only way Dion can be replaced in a pinch is if he either dies or resigns. If Dion doesn’t resign, the Liberals may govern under Dion if a coalition is formed.

Fiction: A new Bloc-Liberal-NDP coalition government would be viable beyond their agreement on the $1.95-per-vote subsidy.

Speculation: If the Liberals-NDP believe they can form a coalition with tangential Bloc support, the GG may have no other option to call an election as 77+37=114 LPC/NDP vs. CPC’s 143. The GG may see this as the only stable option.

Fact: The Conservatives (in the broader picture) want to move forward on the economy. The opposition wanted to hold the government back on the campaign welfare package.

Fact: The Throne Speech passed in the House yesterday after the economic statement was read. The opposition approved the government’s mandate knowing full well that they’d be bringing it to the brink this weekend.

Fact: On mandates, if the Liberals were to form government, they would do so after receiving the lowest proportion of votes in their party’s history. Further, if Dion does resign and if Ignatieff does become Prime Minister, he would do so without having been presented to Canadians during the democratic process that we call elections. Talk about an affront to democracy!

Fact: The opposition accused the government of not having a plan for the economy during an election and now they accuse the government of the same now. What has changed? The Conservatives now want to end campaign welfare.

Fact: Cooler heads recognize that the American elephant will move on the economy in new year and that any action with respect to our integrated economies would be better done in coordination rather than prematurely.

Speculation: Canadians will not accept a surprise Liberal-NDP coalition backed by a party that wants to destroy the country that would stand to be dismantled under the proposed funding changes of the Conservative government. By opposing campaign welfare reform, the Liberals are sustaining the existence of the Bloc for their own ambition. Canadians will not accept a surprise Prime Minister unvetted by the electorate.

Speculation: What are the terms of a NDP-backed Liberal coalition government? Cancellation of the $50 Billion corporate tax cut? What are the Bloc’s terms?

Comments

comments

  • Elizabeth Davidson

    It is an outrage to the Canadian voters who chose a Conservative government to have these have-not parties try to wrest control of the country from the leader and party of our choice. They are not acting in the best interests of the country. How could any thinking person consider Stephane Dion capable of leading this, or any other country.
    It is the end of democracy to have OUR choice taken away like this.
    Remember why the Conservatives were elected – the liberals are untrustworthy and interested only their need for money. AND – it has been proven by the NDP in both Ontario and British Columbia that they only destroy economies. Bob Rae was the NDP destroyer of Ontario in the 90’s- does anyone remember that????? Now he wants to lead the Liberals to a stolen government with a party that no one wants or respects. Their ratings can only go lower.
    Harper has a plan to help ALL Canadians through the economic troubles. The Liberals, NDP, and BLOC are just concerned about filling their own pockets and robbing yours.

  • gayle

    I would have no trouble getting a placard ready and hitting the streets, this is the most rediculous situation I have heard of in Canadian politics. I don’t think it takes too many brains to understand what this kind of instability could do to our whole country in this economic climate. I’m headed to the garage to see if I can get a sign made. I wonder who else will be saying this before the night is over?

  • gayle

    I would have no trouble getting a placard ready and hitting the streets, this is the most rediculous situation I have heard of in Canadian politics. I don’t think it takes too many brains to understand what this kind of instability could do to our whole country in this economic climate. I’m headed to the garage to see if I can get a sign made. I wonder who else will be saying this before the night is over?

  • Ben

    What I don't understand is how two major federal parties can hold a straight face when their apparent leaders are being sidelined by Ghosts of Parliaments Past. Broadbent and Chretien were so much more popular in their day than Layton or Dion. If returning to Parliaments of old were a good solution for leadership, why didn't Joe Clark lead the triumphant return of the Tories to the Prime Minister's Office?

  • Glenn

    Ed Broadbent and Cretien, two old retired politicians called upon to be part of this coupe. It certainly is time to take to the streeets. Especially when the MSM is trying to give some political cover for this coupe. Too bad we don’t have a Canadian fox news to balance the MSM. I believe that this coupe was discussed and partially planned as a option even before the election. Time for the silent majority to let our voices be heard, not just the left-wing Soviet street protestors who usually demonstrate.

  • Glenn

    Ed Broadbent and Cretien, two old retired politicians called upon to be part of this coupe. It certainly is time to take to the streeets. Especially when the MSM is trying to give some political cover for this coupe. Too bad we don’t have a Canadian fox news to balance the MSM. I believe that this coupe was discussed and partially planned as a option even before the election. Time for the silent majority to let our voices be heard, not just the left-wing Soviet street protestors who usually demonstrate.

  • Ted

    Dion planned this after the election, thats why he hung on as leader.

  • Ted

    Dion planned this after the election, thats why he hung on as leader.

  • Emile Scheffel

    So the Liberal/NDP coalition plan is an affront to democracy. And you support a party that wants to make Canada a one-party state. Gotcha.

  • Emile Scheffel

    So the Liberal/NDP coalition plan is an affront to democracy. And you support a party that wants to make Canada a one-party state. Gotcha.

  • Richard Romano

    “Stephen, to look at the TV coverage of Ed Broadbent in his winter cap going into the Parliament”

    Did you also hear him say something along the lines of, “I spoke to the business community and they’re not happy.” HOW IN THE WORLD DID YOU SPEAK TO THE ENTIRE BUSINESS COMMUNITY IN ONE NIGHT?!?

    Typical left-wing speak — everyone thinks like they do, otherwise you’re nuts.

  • Richard Romano

    “Stephen, to look at the TV coverage of Ed Broadbent in his winter cap going into the Parliament”

    Did you also hear him say something along the lines of, “I spoke to the business community and they’re not happy.” HOW IN THE WORLD DID YOU SPEAK TO THE ENTIRE BUSINESS COMMUNITY IN ONE NIGHT?!?

    Typical left-wing speak — everyone thinks like they do, otherwise you’re nuts.

  • http://www.rightorwrongradio.com Emrys Graefe

    Good on you for this one Stephen.

    It’s also worth mentioning that there is so little support for either the Liberals or the NDP that they are dusting off the old guns like Chrétien and Broadbent. At least they realize that they have such little support, and such terrible leadership within their parties at the moment. But Chrétien? Didn’t we realize already that he’s a crook?

    With that said, who better to rampantly toss bags of money unaccountably at various corporate cronies than Chrétien? Good ol’ Grits.

  • http://www.rightorwrongradio.com Emrys Graefe

    Good on you for this one Stephen.

    It’s also worth mentioning that there is so little support for either the Liberals or the NDP that they are dusting off the old guns like Chrétien and Broadbent. At least they realize that they have such little support, and such terrible leadership within their parties at the moment. But Chrétien? Didn’t we realize already that he’s a crook?

    With that said, who better to rampantly toss bags of money unaccountably at various corporate cronies than Chrétien? Good ol’ Grits.

  • Liz J

    Dion bedding down with Layton and Duceppe holding the balance of power is one nightmare scenario and it won't be simple pillow fights. Duceppe is only interested in what's good for Quebec, that leaves an impasse on important issues. They'll get no support from the Conservatives.

    The whole thing will blow up and the country will be the worse for it. The GG wil have to be well advised on this one. We can't be put in the hands of warring factions being held up by Separatists.

    If there were an award for hypocrisy, it would be a toss up between Dion and Layton.

  • The Champ

    This is the nightmare I was dreaming about ever since I learned that it was constitutional to have coalition governments on the recommendation of the GG. Considering that the GG is completely unqualified to make any sort of meaningful decision on this coalition and the future of Canada, I believe if this actually does happen, she will probably dissolve parliament rather than allow these clowns to govern anything. It would be completely undemocratic for this sort of thing to happen, and would really call for the abolition of the prerogative powers that the GG has. The constitution needs to be updated so badly, it has been too long. I mean this sort of CRAP could fly back in the day when voting was a public affair and elections where bought by whiskey but not now.

    Also, it is pretty amazing that this country is the only country in the G8 that isn't tanking, and yet these ignorant fools are so convinced that their economic policies that have totally failed in Europe are best for this country in this time. Talk about partisan ignorance, or maybe just stupidity. I do not want the damn auto industry which have made garbage vehicles for the past 30 years to be bailed out so that they can continue to disrespect the consumer. I know many people would be out of work but this is better in the long run. They are not sustainable under any sort of deal/contract, and who knows, maybe if one of them goes under, like GM, the others (FORD, CHRYSLER) could somehow soak up the excess workers and consumers. Stop making cars that start leaking oil and anti freeze after 150,000 km and people will start buying them!

  • David

    So which dozen Liberal MP's would rather support the Conservative confidence votes than support the madness of governing with the NDP and Bloc for a millisecond before it all falls apart?

  • Terry

    The PM was angry because his bad judgement is now on display for all to see. He will maintain power, no doubt, but he will be seriously diminished which is what its all about. His desire to circumvent due process by sliding stiff arm stuff into bills has just caught up with him. This man is nasty, mean and very unethical. The G&M article this am describing him as a guy who wakes up every morning with the goal of destroying his opponents is not a viable leader.

    The $1.95 needs to go but there needs to be a full re-evaluation by ALL PARTIES in order to find the right party funding formula. The Tories obviously don't have support from the majority of MP's and therefore need to discuss the issue with them. That's what house committees are for and in this case using the speaker's chair might be the right setting to make this work fairly for the next generation or so.
    I never agreed with Chretien's move but it was done in the right spirit in order to take corruption out of the process.

    In any event its getting down to the fact the tories are having their once in a generation chance to screw up things and they are well on their way.

  • David

    There will not be a coalition. The risk for the Libs. is that they would be branded as the party that negotiated with sepratists to govern the country for a while . If it stuck it would be for all of history. No party wants the label as the party of traitors.

  • Chris

    This is really sad. I voted Conservative, got a Conservative government and now we're seeing a take over just after the election. Come on!

    This idea that we should hand out billions in corporate welfare, raise taxes and go into deficits absolutely disgusts me. The government should be cutting and they don't like seeing their free money source cut.

    There's things that I like about our Canadian system and there are things that I hate. I suppose if there is any light from this, Canadians are really going to question this whole “Governor General” position. An appointed person with so much power. Most people don't care, but now they're forced to deal with it because it might happen.

    I know I wouldn't want to be the Governor General. It really doesn't matter what she does, there's going to be people on both sides pissed off. If she lets a coalition form, people will be pissed off. If she lets an election be called, people will be pissed off.

    Maybe this will all lead to some very interesting reform.

  • Navvy

    Funny you guys weren't talking all this subversion of democracy nonsense a few years back,
    http://scottdiatribe.canflag.com/2008/11/28/har
    Strange, wonder what happened.

  • David

    Another thought on this and one that I have not heard any speculation about is in the appointing of senators. A coalition gov't even a short lived one could choose senators to fill the void. If Harper sees the likelyhood of a coalition gov't increase would he not be tempted to fill those vacancies in the senate?

  • whyshouldIsellyourwheat

    In order to save the Conservative government, Stephen Harper has to step aside and let Jim Prentice try and form and save the government, by offering an credible alternative to the Liberal-NDP-Bloc coalition.

    I don't think making a sacrificial lamb out of Flaherty would work or would be sufficient. Harper and Flaherty both have to go, and Prentice has to take over, with say somebody like Ablonczy as the new Finance Minister.

    The party and country should be more important than any single individual. A Harper led government is no longer a credible alternative, and although an election would be the best option, I don't think there is going to be an election.

    A Prentice led government has the possibility of gaining confidence of the House.

    I think it is the only choice the Conservatives have if they want to prevent the coalition “abomination” of the Lib-NDP-Bloc

  • bert

    And i also think that Chretien and Broadbent should be arrested for helping to plot this coup.As for the taking to the streets,it may get worse than that if this is allowed to happen.You had better think very hard this week you Libbers,because you may just be starting something that will snowball into dissaster for the nation.And for what? $1.95….IS THAT WHAT YOUR COUNTRY IS WORTH TO YOU???

  • http://www.infobooksandthings.com PrairieDog

    Tell me when and where…I will be in the streets supporting our ELECTED Conservative Government. I will be bringing friends as well. This whole thing makes me very nervous. To watch the power grab by a party that has it's worst ever showing in an election, scares the hell out of me. Wo do these people think they are, for God sake?
    Is Canada's democracy so fragile that it could collapse so easily?

  • Matt

    There seems to be a fundamental misunderstanding of how our democracy works. You, as an individual voter, do not elect a government. You vote for a Member of Parliament. The sum total of MPs then decides who forms the government. That's exactly what's happened with the formation of this Conservative government and the rules will still be followed should a coalition government be installed. So settle down. There's no need to take to the streets when the rules are still followed.

  • Timwest

    Why is it when Obama was successful at grassroots fundraising it was good but when the Conservatives do it it is bad? Why can't the Liberals do what Obama did?

    Obama is the darling of Libs and Dippers !!

  • Grant

    It's odd to me that you think it would be so terrible for someone with 25% of the vote to head the government but it's OK for someone with 38% of the vote to do it.

    I think the GG should force a coalition government every election where no party attains 50% of the vote.

    Currently I represent the majority of the country that did not vote Conservative and yet they are allowed to govern. The minority now governs the majority. Thanks not democracy.

  • Richard Romano

    Another drive-by smear artist — no thought, just feeling and false analogies.

    I wonder how you would feel if the Conservatives attempted this? You would be screaming bloody murder…and you know it. Liberals love Hitler analogies, and that case scenario would allow you to use it and with glee.

  • http://www.infobooksandthings.com PrairieDog

    I've been wondering the same thing. I'm sure there are more than a few Liberals upset at even suggesting a coalition with separatists. It would be so sweet to see a dozen Liberal MP's and walk across the floor during the vote of confidence. Wishful thinking maybe, …but you just never know.

  • Richard Romano

    Funny, I don't recall ANY liberals concerned that they were allowed to govern with a minority a few years ago.

  • Bob

    They are pro American when it suits them, they love Obama. But they won't follow his example when the libs have to put it a little effort to raise money. They are entitled to their free money.

  • Observant

    Didn't BobRae say the NDP was a “mistake” .. and now he will be looking at a Minister Layton if not Deputy Prime Minister Layton?!

    Wasn't Iggy the Liberal Deputy Leader .. and now he is nothing .. not even considered for a ministry in a Dion-Layton coalition government .. all because he is running for the Liberal leadership due in May'09???

    Perhaps Iggy & Bobo should unequivocally declare their fealty to Dion as Liberal leader and next Prime Minister of Canada … and declare that the Liberal leadership is competently filled for the foreseeable future.

  • Fred

    Stephen FYI . . . . typo . . “77+34=114 ” = 77+37=114

  • http://www.stephentaylor.ca Stephen Taylor

    D'oh!

  • Herman

    “Canadians won't accept …” means nothing unless there is an election. A 3-party coalition will proceed without any input from Canadians. I think Harper has gambled foolishly and may lose, and so will we all. Too bad.

  • MikeW

    My understanding is the $1.95 will be included in the enabling legislation for the fiscal update,and it will be a confidence vote. The standings in Parliament are: Cons. 143, Libs. 77, Bloc. 49, NDP 37 & 2 independents, Arthur and Casey – these two generally vote with Cons, in this situation who knows. According to the news, Clarkson (last GG) beleived a Gov,t (Martin) should serve at least 6 months. In this instance to overcome 143 votes all 3 named parties must be clearly on record to maintain a coalition for a reasonable time. Obviously financial demands of the Bloc for Que., Layton's rollback of the Corp taxes, and bailouts of various industry and workers – lumber, autos, and the environment demands seems impossible to maintain.

  • Terry

    Harper has poisoned Parliament at a time when we can least afford it, and after he had made so many reconciliatory statements that might have won some stability for a year or two. No matter how he tries to spin it, he blew it. As just about every political columnist on all sides of the spectrum have been writing this morning, this action defies logic by inserting such a major change to campaign/political financing at this juncture, without a true debate on how we should fund parties and elections in this country (a valid and important subject for such a debate). This change was not hinted at in the election campaign, in his party consultations, nor in the Throne Speech. This was a grenade that is an affront to democracy itself.

    Ironically, Bob Rae participated in just such a quasi-coalition that set one of several precedents for the GG — Peterson government in Ontario after Miller lost confidence of the Ontario Legislature, the classic King-Byng decision that ousted the Liberals in the 30s — to permit the Liberals to form a 2-year government in Ontario (after which he was actually elected Premier). I think this would be the ideal way of moving forward and the GG must accept it if the three parties defeat the government and present a set of letters committing to at least a 2-year pledge not to vote against a true coalition wit a cabinet comprised of members from at least two of the three. The Bloc is a left-of-centre party now more so than a separatist party, so it would be quite at home in such a coalition, or at least supporting a Liberal/NDP coalition government.

    Harper and Flaherty have painted themselves into a corner and seem to have forgotten the formed a government with one of the lowest share of popular vote by any government in history: a majority of Canadians actually did vote for this potential coalition government, and with the Bloc's support it would be almost 2-1 over those who voted for the Conservatives!

    Harper has certainly lost confidence and does not deserve to lead the country any longer. The neo-Cons from the Harris wing of the party deserve to be purged if indeed the Liberal/NDP coalition emerges.

  • http://www.stephentaylor.ca Stephen Taylor

    Approve
    Sent from my BlackBerry device on the Rogers Wireless Network

  • whyshouldIsellyourwheat

    Harper has lost. The Conservative Party loses only if it follows him over the cliff.

    The Conservative Caucus has to replace Harper and Flaherty this week. Demand their resignations, and go the the House of Commons with a new PM and a new finance minister.

    The only alternative to a Harper minority is NOT a Liberal-NDP-Bloc coalition. It is a Conservative minority fronted by someone other than Harper.

    Conservative caucus…make it happen.

    Party and country come before the individual. If Harper goes, the Conservative government can survive.

  • Kelly

    A new political party getting voted in by the minority of the eletorate, winning the minority of seats in the legilature – ignoreing the elected majority opposition and then enacting legislation to make it harder for opposing parties to survive? This is something the world has seen many times, and historians always ask why the majority didn’t do something to stop the tyrany of a minority.

    If Stephen Harper is removed from office by this coalition this will be Canadas first legal, democratic and totally non violent coup in history. Canada is doing what other politicians in other countries should have done when they had a chance – there are many examples I could use. This will provided the Conservatives with a heaping does of humility and maybe if they are returned to power some day they will keep this humility with them.

    I have yet to see anyone in the Blogging Tories explain how 163 members removing 143 members form Government is undemocratic. If anything, it is democracy in action.

  • Doug McLeod

    Actually, This is a gift to Harper. Once more Dion has proved he’s about the dullest knife in the drawer. The PM should allow the motion to go forward. If it manages to pass, great! Consider;

    As a Liberal appointee, the GG may be obtuse enough to grant Dion who was just rejected by 72% of the populace the opportunity to form a Conspiracy (Coalition) government against a party who is only fifteen seats short of a Majority. That government would fall at the first vote unless they give in to the Bloc’s blackmail at every turn – the word deficit doesn’t begin to cover what would happen here, and from the HRDC scandal to the Gun regsitry to the Adscam debacle, the Libs have screwed up everything they’ve touched since WW II. So the next election, which would happen very fast, the Libs, who are just a Toronto party now, are extinct. Layton gains prestige while the Liberals die. Certainly no problem there!

    Or – Given the current conditions and as you point out, the GG refuses to go along with the coup where upon an Election is automatically required. Dion, again the reject of the last election and who has already said he’s leaving, is immediately forced to fight yet another election before a Leadership convention is held. This election is where the PM gets to campaign on Dion’s and Laytons attempt to overthrow the last election results, and their percieved to remain at the public trough because not enough of the populace is willing to support them. Does it get any better than that?

    Third – the Toronto Libs get in against the will of the Canadian electorate and in doing disenfrancise the Conservative vote all across Canada – I can’t speak for the east, but the west will be gone and very shortly – again we get rid of the Libs – this is a no lose situation for both the conservatives in general and Harper in particular. Let ‘er go boys!

    The shrillness of the lefties is precisely the same as it was in Oct – and the Libs got the worst showing since confederation. Harper will get his majority hands down. The electorate of this country voted in a (barely) minority governemt and the left is trying to tear it down at the first vote – let the motion go forward

  • shavluk

    hahhahha

    and soon you yourself may see your own ego……stupidly trip you up as well stephan…

    just like harper just did as he shot his own foot off…..
    I loved it and saw this one coming from a mile away hahhhaa

    good to see the karma of this move ….yes

    and didn’t you just love harper then try to just spin this as not his own doing.
    some strategist hahhaha yeah Canadians are that stupid harper
    put it off for a week as his fear and cowardice showed through

    yes stephen more surprises are sure to come …stay tuned…..as you deserve every thing you do get !!!

    I of course know what you and your girlfriend have been up to and our plan will help you learn very many of life’s lessons hahhaha

    maybe tweeter this one off to your buddies again hahha

    I will never forget and never forgive and I always repay in kind.

    cheers loser

  • batb

    Okay, “Shady dealing from his government brought Canadians the Adscam Sponsorship Scandal” and not only that, Kyoto, Mo Strong and Power Corps.

    These guys are Hell bent for leather on getting the Kyoto stuff passed, paid for, and implemented by the Canadian taxpayers and they see that now's their opportunity. What systers. No wonder things are so nasty, so catastrophic. They need our money to invest in China and they have only a couple of more years in which to do this. This is their BIG CHANCE.

    This is appalling but so predictable. Let's hope that PMSH and the CPC stay the course, despite the skullduggery and the shills in the MSM. It's getting to be all or nothing, and who in “nice” Canada a would have thunk it? Canadians are being played like a piano by the left. They pretend to care about us but all they really care about are their entitlements.

    I hope that they'll soon be exposed for the ethical and moral pygmies they are. But in this Dystopian, Deranged Dominion, dominated, it seems, by the leftie educational, media, and political elites, one never knows, do one?

  • Brett

    No, you represent yourself. Please don't pretend tht you represent the “majority” of Canadians.

  • Cinteri

    Does anybody think that by removing the tax credits for corporations will help to stimulate thhe economy I would like to know how?
    If the Canadian Government give subsidies to US owned Auto Manufactures before the US decide how they will handle the subject Canada would just be throwing the money away to possibly bankrupt US companies
    As you point out the balance of power in Canada is held by a party dedicated to breaking up Canada & supported in whole by only one of the Ten Provinces, How can we as Canadians have allowed this situation to have happened.

  • melanie

    You sound just like the rednecks who voted for McCain. Fox news/ left wing soviet street protestors??

  • French_Canadian

    Hey everyone, a small reaction from the province of Quebec… I must say i'm a little frighten about all the fuss you guys are doing about this… Let's all rationalize this, please keep the weapons in their rack for god's sake !! You want some facts… here they are…

    First … this crisis was brought by a stupid prime minister who simply forgot that he is not a majority government… He might be a majority in Manitoba… but he is not in Canada… so he had to get at least one of the opposition party on his side… that's the rules of our country…

    Second… Like everybody else in this country, the majority of quebecer aren't interrested to see Stephane Dion as prime minister….

    Third… Even if that doesn't please you, (and believe me I didn't vote for them either) The bloc Quebecois have been elected and are representing their canadian electors. Their seat at the house of commons has the same importance as any westerners seat…

    Let's face it, Harper created this mess, only him can stop it… Why cant he be humble for a second and ask canadians for forgiveness… Say he was wrong, promise he wont do it again, be like Obama in the state somebody who will unite governement instead of dividing a country…

    He already recognized implicitely that his economic review was a very bad one and backed on almost every of his propositions… Why must he go on putting oil on an already intensly burning fire…

    Nobody wants a dictatorship in Ottawa, and nobody wants a lousy coalition either… Why is it that this government not able to make it work !! it's not just the liberals !! it's not just the bloc !!! I cant believe that Harper isn't able to create a coalition with at least one of the opposition parties and make it work !!!

  • Julie F Outlaw

    nice article! nice site. you're in my rss feed now ;-)
    keep it up