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September 28, 2008

The battle for second place

As we enter the third week of the federal election campaign, one cannot help but be struck by how early poll numbers suggesting a Conservative majority government have held. Nanos/CPAC numbers were fairly consistent over the past three days indicating an approximate fifteen point margin between the Conservatives and the Liberals. As one senior Liberal strategist told Sunmedia’s Greg Weston, “For us to make any significant gains would require that just about everything go terribly wrong for the Conservatives.”

We’re about to see the opening of a secondary race; the race for Stornoway is going to be of intense media focus. Consider this: the NDP has a greater chance of tieing or surpassing the Liberals than Liberal leader Stephane Dion has of challenging Stephen Harper for the lead. When we consider this truth, the narrative changes: this is no longer a race to replace the Prime Minister, this is a race to hold him to a minority. And, as NDP and Liberal numbers tighten up, there’s a new math problem for the left-wing collective calculator to solve. Indeed, pollster Angus-Reid yesterday showed results of a national tie between the Dippers and Grits with a larger sample size than usual and a margin of error of just 2.5%.

The New Democrats have always battled with the Liberals to be champions of the left, and now a new entrant – the Greens – are proving to be a serious challenge for Layton. In the past, we’ve seen the estranged Liberal family unite under the banner of the Think-Twice Coalition that usually includes folks like Buzz Hargrove, Maude Barlow, and Green Party leader Elizabeth May. Will we see an 11th hour alliance between Liberals and the Greens or will such a move sour the goodwill that May has built by making a case for her inclusion in the leader’s debate?

If the Tories play things responsibly and do some smart thinking – twice if need be – and refrain from being too eager to respond to each and every opportunity to put out some pushback, this race will focus on the territorial skirmish on the left. This week’s debate may just help Canadians break from the psychology of the Conservative-Liberal dichotomy and a solid performance from Jack Layton is important for this to happen. In fact, look for Stephen Harper to be a willing combatant against Layton when the NDP leader challenges him this Thursday. Harper and Layton will balance this by doing their best to dunk Dion with their respective right and left feet whenever he tries to get his head above water but we’ll see Elizabeth May come to his rescue in order to get some valuable stage time. Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe will just muddle the left-wing message by taking up yet another podium and will do well to underscore the divide between a calm and collected Harper and the jumbled, disjointed side-show to his left. Though Canadians have been impressed with Duceppe’s English language debate performances in the past and are familiar with the Bloc leader, having a separatist voice among the muddled and crowded opposition will just lead more Canadians to side with Harper. If Layton finds his voice with Harper’s help, a strong debate performance by the NDP, in concert with the surging of his party’s poll numbers and the darkness embracing the Liberals may change the media narrative (and Canadian psychology) to think of the NDP as the champion of the underdog left. It is doubtful that the media will then focus on Harper vs. Layton for the rest of the race. They will, however, treat the Dion-Layton-May contest as its own.

The combination of these factors will put the Liberals in crisis mode as their war-room, faced with a question of survival, not only electoral but institutional, debates on whether to spend the limit or bank the few dollars that come its way during the rare fundraising event that is a general election.

What hasn’t been discussed may in fact be the clincher for a Harper majority this election. With so many parties eating each other’s lunch on the left, that magic 40% threshold for a majority may in fact be old math. Jean Chretien, facing a fractured right won a 155 seat majority with 38.5% of the popular vote. The left has pushed for proportional representation in the past in order to buck unity of ideology for increased representation in Parliament. After October 14th, as May, Layton and whoever replaces Dion work over the new math they might come to realize that unity presents the only way forward. For now, the left battles itself with four divided voices and the prize is second place.

This entry was authored by Stephen Taylor at 11:32 AM | Tweet this | Comments (13)

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East of Eden

If the Liberals and Greens ally, there will be serious repercussions from the voting public. If one votes Green or Liberal and ends up with an allied team, those voters will feel duped and that is not good. What the Conservatives could do is subtly plant the question in the minds of Liberal and Green supporters along the lines of: what kind of party will you vote in? If I were either a Liberal (God forbid) or a Green (when donkeys fly), I would vote for either the Conservatives or the NDP because if I vote Liberal, I do not want my vote helping the Green, and vice versa. I have long believed that Elizabeth May is just out to get into Parliament by any means possible. Dion appears to be weak and befuddled and completely ill-suited to the job of leader and May is certainly strong-voiced so he could be the weak link she has been seeking. I'm willing to bet that if she loses her riding, she could very well replace an elected Green (if that happens) who suddenly develops some sort of personal issue which prevents him or her from sitting as an MP. I would even go so far as to say that it is possible for some of the Green candidates to be sacrificial lambs. No matter what, I can easily imagine that if May is elected, she will cross the floor to the Liberals and eventually take a shot at the leadership. This is all theoretical but it is my own gut feeling.

As for Jack Layton, if he plays his cards right, he and Harper could form something of an informal alliance with mutual support being the key. Harper is clearly a winner and Jack would do well to stay close to him. Harper could strategically use Layton to gain the soft left and Layton could use Harper to gain the same sort of voter who is on the fence between left and right but listing a bit to the right.
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RagingRanter

I've noticed Lizzy May backing off her earlier calls for strategic voting. I think she realized that Harper (and to a lesser extent Layton) would skewer her during the debates and accuse her of tag-teaming for Stephane Dion. The main objection Harper and Layton had to her participation in the debates was that she would act primarily as a prop for Dion's Green $hit. Her calling for strategic voting would seem to bolster that assertion. Which is likely why she is back-pedaling furiously from her strategic voting ideas now. Just wait until after the debates; I fully expect her to start screaming frantically for strategic voting and even urging some Green candidates to step aside and start supporting the Liberal candidate in close riding.
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Now Nanos shows the polls narrowing. CPC -3, LPC +2
bigcitylib

Day too late with Nanos. 36/27 again.

HD shows a bit of narrowing too.
burpnrun

@RagingRanter: Ms. May hasn't backed off her “Think Twice/Support the Liberals” stance at all. What she has done recently is to try to muddy the waters and revise history, as she is often wont to do. Example:

“Green party Leader Elizabeth May ended her cross-country train tour in Halifax Saturday, denying reports she's urging supporters to vote strategically in a bid to unseat the Conservatives …

“It's a non-starter,” she said inside the historic train station near the Halifax waterfront. “Strategic voting just doesn't work” …

“I won't say, ‘You've got to vote Green if you believe in our policies.' I'll say, ‘Here's our policies, figure out what you need to do because, frankly, the Green Party has to put progress [on climate change] and principle above short-term power,”' she told The Toronto Star last week …

“I'd rather have no Green seats and Stephen Harper lose, than a full caucus that stares across the floor at Stephen Harper as prime minister, because his policies are too dangerous.”
SOURCE: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.200...

Read carefully. She is still advocating her selective type of voting, to the detriment of the Green Party's growth, funding (cast your $1.75 to some other party), credibility, and perhaps future survival. After the election this full-time lobbyist will move on to find another sucker, having mortally wounded the Green movement. Even the Green Party of Ontario has wisely warned against what May is/is not advocating:
http://www.gpo.ca/node/1814

Just call her position the death knell of the Green Party if it gets any traction. A very arrogant, bitter and self-centred woman, this Elizabeth May.
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Archie

I think it's too early to be commenting whose battling for second place, the election hasn't been won yet and we shouldn't get too complacent. Make sure their dead and buried before we do this. Keep up the pressure on Dion and point out the faults of Duceppe, and Taliban Jack. Dion is toast and will be burnt toast after the debate, the key now is Duceppe. Destroy him and the BLOC will follow, keep up the pressure in Quebec and Ontario will follow. Taliban Jack will sooner or later put his foot in his mouth, but we should give him a little help in doing this. Yes it seems that the CPC is doing better in the polls in Ontario but we should not forget Quebec.
Gone Fishing

Brutus I have a similiar story coming from the “mushy middle”. My parents and siblings were all Liberal hypocrites who voted that way because my grandfather was so staunch a liberal. They could not get to a point where they could be offended about Trudeau's wreckless turn to the left even when the issues of abortion and same sex marriage were put forth and passed. (Note to all readers, please don't come down on me for a right wing religious view, or a social conservative dogma – I don't have one. I just see a lot of irony in how they can abadon the faith which is so important to them in politics but they didn't recognize my marriage to a non-catholic.)

Anyway, the change began with Harris kicking Rae's sorry butt out of Toronto. I supported Mike and unbeknownst to me my mother did. Later when he was re-elected she spoke proud that he had a chance to finish the mandate he began.

Still, I literally blasted my mother in 2006 in front of my sister for the Liberal sign on her front yard. After we had a long conversation she called and had the sign taken down. She had a lot of misconceptions about what the Liberals stood for and I think she has warmed to Stephan Harper as she did to Harris. My sisters are coming around too. If all conservative supporters are willing to stand up for Canada (an old slogan) and we can turn just a few votes we can deliver the majority needed to fulfill a very open and well understood conservative agenda.

What I find ironic, is how the Ontario PC has gone nowhere since it abandoned principals to join the Liberals in the mushy middle. The one thing I regret with Mike Harris is that he did such a mia culpa about my home town Walkerton and that the party under Ernie Eves went so pink. Thankfully Reform came to the new CPC in a position of relative strength. Pink Tories like Scott Brison, Keith Martin and Joe Clark felt they needed to leave and I believe that it is a case of good riddance to bad rubbish.

I run into so many lefties including union leaders and social activists that are becoming jaded with the idea of big government managing everything. They appeal to so many single women for example who totally jump right over the middle to the right when they have kids and the responsibilities of parents and so realize that the Conservative party is the party of the family.
Gone Fishing

I agree that a Green / Liberal alliance will have serious repercussions for the country. A once middle of the road party (going back to Mike Pearson days) has become more leftist and socially bizzare. I personally feel Wiflred Laurier is rolling in his grave and that John A MacDonald would have given up driking to be more focused on holding power, if he knew that the party of his opponents would have evolved to what it is today.

A green/liberal alliance is simple, it means that the Liberal party as we know it will no longe exist in any form.

Radical forces will hijack this party for their support.

That is why I am so pleased to see the NDP coming on. I can't say that I would ever suppport them but I would rather Jack Layton play the role of conscience in the next parliament than to some dufus who would have to consult the ________ (insert name of special interst group here) before opposing the CPC.

The one thing I think Jack Layton has done wrong campaign wise is cave to Lizzie's demand to be heard. If he had stood pat this would have blown over. It's too hard to call until we see where all the dejected liberals go if they don't just stay home on the 14th.

As mentioned above the Green/Liberal alliance will mean the death knell for the party's return to power. The middle of the road liberals will have to make a choice if the want to stay main stream – Do I call Jack Layton or Stephan Harper for a membership card?
Brutus

I went “conservative” back in ’94 when Bob Rae was in power in Ontario. Had been NDP but Bob opened my eyes with his policies. Many of my “friends” thought I was wrong. I joined the Reform party, I worked for the Harris Tories, and I wasn’t shy about letting people know who I supported. Lost a lot of “friends” over my political views.
Reason I’m mentioning this is because of a phonecall I just had.
A man who hasn’t spoken to me (civilly) for nearly 10 years called me in order to apologize. His exact words were “You were right, I was wrong.” And then he let me know what he thought about Dion’s Green Shaft… and he wasn’t too happy with Layton’s job killing policy either. This from a man who thought the Liberals were too right wing for his taste.
He’s going to be voting conservative this election. I wonder how many other left wing supporters are thinking the same thing.
Observant

Strong, stable majority govt is urgently needed for Canada because we are going into uncertain economic times and we don't need a divisive Parliament and another snap election within months or weeks after the opposition have voted no confidence in another minority Conservative govt.

Do you think Harper should appeal to Canadians with a direct message to either elect a majority Liberal or Conservative govt?? … otherwise the country will suffer immeasurably due to the US and global situation .. not to mention spending another $350 Million on another unwanted election.
Observant

Strong, stable majority govt is urgently needed for Canada because we are going into uncertain economic times and we don't need a divisive Parliament and another snap election within months or weeks after the opposition have voted no confidence in another minority Conservative govt.

Do you think Harper should appeal to Canadians with a direct message to either elect a majority Liberal or Conservative govt?? … otherwise the country will suffer immeasurably due to the US and global situation .. not to mention spending another $350 Million on another unwanted election.