Former Liberal MP Pat O’Brien says that he’ll vote against the budget bills with another unnamed Liberal MP unless Paul Martin retreats from fast-tracking of bill C-38 (SSM) through the House before the summer recess.

So, let’s make some predictions for the outcomes tonight:

Paul Martin caves to O’Brien: 2:1
Tom Wappel is the unnamed Liberal: 3:2
Any regularly attending Conservative MP is absent with “the flu”: 3:1
A few (2+) like-minded Liberals join with O’Brien to bolster his vote: 4:1
Belinda Stronach crosses the floor and then crosses back again: 1:1

UPDATE: Government survives all confidence votes. Closest vote was 153-149. Back to corruption as usual.